ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

[Whiskeyjack]

Would I be a possible suspect if I voted for both, Gert and Daed, like Shadow did. Last night I just went to bed and forgot to vote.

Wouldn't change much, IMO.

But then again we could still say the same thing about you. You voted for both of them.

Yep, that's true. But I know that I'm not the SK.

[Ser Spidey]

I'm back, and I'll be expanding my case on Piper shortly.

[Whiskeyjack]

I'm not calling him an idiot (although he also gave up too easily), because the situation was different. If he voted Gert after defending her, it would have been even more suspicious IMO. If I voted Gert instead of Shabba, I would have gotten away with it. He had no choice but to stick on Shabba. I had, and I chose to stick on her. I would have been a truly stupid FM to do so, if I had a perfectly unnoticable option (voting for inevitable Gert lynch, later on) opened.

So you're saying....

1) Only a stupid FM would vote for Shadowbaby near the middle of the day, to establish a viable alternative to the lynch mob on his partner.

2) But a perfectly reasonable FM would defend his partner near the beginning of the day and vote for Shadowbaby near the middle of the day, to establish a viable alternative to the lynch mob on his partner.

Do I have that right?

[Ser Spidey]

Ok, the case:

Let's start the day with a vote on Ser Spider. I wanna know what his secret reason is. More input from Thio would also be welcomed.

This is how he reacts to my initial case. By voting me, and he hasn't pointed out his suspicions on me earlier. I interpret this as a revenge vote on the first person who suspected him, and is also an easy target.

And my secret reason? I saw Thio hinting to be a roled innocent. It was pretty obvious. I, WJ, and Filter saw it. Piper could have spotted it as well. Notice this:

Ok, the healer fuckin' heals WJ. For the rest of the game. If someone is able to smell WJ's evilness, it's me. And I think he is pretty innocent.

Other people that are VPI for me:

Week, Lany

PI:

Kat

rotten suspects:

all the rest

main suspect:

Daedalus

First thing, he obviously sucks up to WJ. Second, and more important, thing is: this post was made only a few posts before his case on Thio. It seems probable to me that he saw Thio's hints in the meantime, and decided to make a case on him. Remember the previous game, in which FM Piper pushed hard to lynch the person he believed to be a roled innocent. Furthermore, he decided to stay on Thio even when Daed was up to 6 votes (out of 8 needed), and yet, Daed was his prime suspect just a few posts ago.

Piper responding to my accusation of him not being on Gert's mob. He completely ignored the accusation of not being on Daed's mob, which was in the same post:

Response:

I wasn't around when the Gert lynch got the momentum. She was near a lynch when I returned - and died while I was catching up with the tread. If I wanted to help Gert, I would have pushed for Shadow a bit harder, don't you think?

I don't think so. Daed, one member of your team, was already keen on Shabba getting lynched. It would make us very suspicious of you if you played the same cards. You just quietly placed your 'joke' vote.

So, what have we got from Piper so far? Some jokes, avoiding both of the FM mobs, and making a case on a probable innocent role, at the time when second mob was going on on a person who he was recently extremely suspicious of. I really can't think of a better place to lay my vote on right now.

Piper of Chaos

[Ser Spidey]

So you're saying....

1) Only a stupid FM would vote for Shadowbaby near the middle of the day, to establish a viable alternative to the lynch mob on his partner.

2) But a perfectly reasonable FM would defend his partner near the beginning of the day and vote for Shadowbaby near the middle of the day, to establish a viable alternative to the lynch mob on his partner.

Do I have that right?

Look, I'm not saying exactly that. You're always twisting my words (lawyers!).

But I think that his defending of Gert early on wasn't dumb. She wasn't anywhere near a sure lynch, and his 'hating early votes for OOC reasons' was partially convincing.

But him voting Shabba in the middle of the day was stupid IMO. I always meant that, and I think it was visible between the lines, but I just tried to avoid insulting people.

[Crusader]

Let me change my Vote fron night to Piper of Chaos

[Ser Spidey]

Ok, I'm exhausted. That was my first real case, and I was in an extreme hurry.

*bows*

*leaves*

*hopes to come back before he goes to sleep*

[House Dondarrion]

It is day 3.

12 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

2 votes for Piper of Chaos (Crusader, Ser Spider)

2 votes for a homeless harpy (Filter, Thiocyanide)

1 vote for Halo (Piper of Chaos)

1 vote for Thiocyanide (a homeless harpy)

6 players have not voted: Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack.

You have just a tad more than 30 hours.

[a_homeless_harpy]

Before I decide what to do next, I would like to hear from Piper a proper defence. I have my own reasons to suspect him (his case on Thio, my involvement, his praise etc...) but let him post some more, especially when his case is made by Ser Spider, another suspicious type here.

One thing that came to my mind: Gert voted for me and she was a FM. Daedalus wanted to incriminate me and he was a FM as well. Think, people.

[Shadowbaby]

Let me change my Vote fron night to Piper of Chaos

Why, Crusader? What makes Piper the best lynch for today?

[a_homeless_harpy]

Why, Crusader? What makes Piper the best lynch for today?

Probably Ser Spider and his web.

[Shadowbaby]

Probably Ser Spider and his web.

The best lynch, meaning what puts Piper above everyone else. I want to hear Crusader's thoughts, and my vote ain't budging until I do.

And if he just quotes Ser Spider, I'm going to be annoyed.

[JKMan]

I would also like to hear from Piper a proper defense. I want to know what she thinks of Ser Spider's case.

[Ser Spidey]

I would also like to hear from Piper a proper defense. I want to know what she thinks of Ser Spider's case.

Uh, I think that Piper is he.

And I would like to know what do you others think of my case.

[Whiskeyjack]

I think we can narrow down the suspect list for the remaining FM with a little bit of logic. The following people are extremely unlikely to be FM -

Whiskeyjack - led mobs against 2 known FM

Kat - first to vote for Gert, a known FM, and kept vote on her all day

Shadowbaby - target of Daedalus on day 1, before he knew he was going to be lynched

Thio - I believe he is an innocent guard

Then we add in the analysis I mentioned earlier, regarding the fact that Lany was the night kill. I think that makes it less likely that either one of Halo or Harpy is a killer. They could still be an SK who kills on odds nights. They could still be an SK or FM who was blocked by a BP or a healer. They could still be a FM who tried to kill the SK and was blocked by his BP power. So, yeah, they are still suspects. But the odds of them being evil are slightly lower than the odds of the other suspects being evil, IMO.

That leaves me with a list of 6 top FM suspects - Ser Spider, JKMan, Crusader, Filter, Kilgrey, Piper

Kilgrey's blatant defense of Daedalus when he was already near death makes her more likely to be a symp than a FM. And I don't suspect Piper, mainly because he's acting how I expect an innocent Piper to act. Also, he never voted for Daedalus, and I'm almost positive that a guilty Piper would have cut ties with Daedalus very early on day 2.

I rank the remaining 4 suspects in this order -

1) Ser Spider --> acted like he suspected Gert but didn't vote for her; voted late for Daedalus

2) JKMan --> voted late for Gert; acted like he suspected Daedalus but didn't vote for him

3) Crusader --> barely commented on either mob - we don't know anything about him

4) Filter --> acted like he suspected Gert, but didn't vote for her; voted early for Daedalus

In spite of all that, I'm still not willing to clear Harpy of being a FM either. She's new and somewhat illogical - its possible that she just killed Lany for being VPI, without even thinking about the fact that Lany trusted her and she'd want to keep her around. So I'm putting her 5th on my FM suspect list, after those other 4.

I need to go out for a little while. Going to think about the SK while I'm gone, and try to narrow that down a bit. For now, I'm going to cast my vote on Crusader, in an attempt to pressure him to contribute more. I want reasons, not just votes. Please note, Crusader, you are on my suspect list, and even if you aren't ranked first, I'm quite willing to leave my vote where it is and lynch you today if you don't start providing us with more information that we can use to analyze your alignment.

[Whiskeyjack]

And I would like to know what do you others think of my case.

I think it's an okay case, when evaluated on it's own merits. I think it's clearly incorrect, when interpreted in light of other information.

1) I don't think Piper is a FM. If Piper was a FM, he would have cut ties with Daedalus early on day 2. I am almost positive that he would have been leading that charge, rather than making a case against Thio.

2) I don't think Piper is the SK either. He argued that the SK didn't vote for Daedalus. He's one of 5 people who didn't vote for Daedalus. Piper is smart enough to not argue a theory that traps himself on such a small suspect list, if he's the SK. Therefore, I don't think he's the SK.

[Shadowbaby]

And I would like to know what do you others think of my case.

My vibes tell me that Piper is innocent.

...Hey, they were right about Gert and Daed.

[Ser Spidey]

I think it's an okay case, when evaluated on it's own merits. I think it's clearly incorrect, when interpreted in light of other information.

1) I don't think Piper is a FM. If Piper was a FM, he would have cut ties with Daedalus early on day 2. I am almost positive that he would have been leading that charge, rather than making a case against Thio.

2) I don't think Piper is the SK either. He argued that the SK didn't vote for Daedalus. He's one of 5 people who didn't vote for Daedalus. Piper is smart enough to not argue a theory that traps himself on such a small suspect list, if he's the SK. Therefore, I don't think he's the SK.

Cut ties with Daed so early, even if they lost a member of their team on day one? A possibility, nothing more.

Look, I agree that you know Piper better than me, and you are a PI to me. But, this also means that Piper knows you well, and you're obviously the innocent leader. So, if he tricks you, he tricked some of the others as well. Placing himself on a small list could be even smarter if he is a SK, if he did so to trick you.

[Shadowbaby]

Look, I agree that you know Piper better than me, and you are a PI to me. But, this also means that Piper knows you well, and you're obviously the innocent leader. So, if he tricks you, he tricked some of the others as well. Placing himself on a small list could be even smarter if he is a SK, if he did so to trick you.

...No one's going to lynch anybody in fear that they might be tricking us.

[Whiskeyjack]

My vibes tell me that Piper is innocent.

...Hey, they were right about Gert and Daed.

Who do you suspect right now?

Cut ties with Daed so early, even if they lost a member of their team on day one? A possibility, nothing more.

Look, I agree that you know Piper better than me, and you are a PI to me. But, this also means that Piper knows you well, and you're obviously the innocent leader. So, if he tricks you, he tricked some of the others as well. Placing himself on a small list could be even smarter if he is a SK, if he did so to trick you.

Piper isn't going to design his entire approach to the game based on an attempt to trick me.

As I said earlier, I'm almost positive he would have voted for Daedalus if he was a FM. The fact that he didn't vote for either one of Daedalus or Gert...sorry, but it just doesn't add up, IMO. That's not the way he plays when he's evil.