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Mexal

ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

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Piper isn't going to design his entire approach to the game based on an attempt to trick me.

If he did, it would have worked, because a lot of people here will dismiss him just because you did so. But I'm not going to argue about it any more, I'll wait for Piper's defence.

Good night!

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Uh, I think that Piper is he.

And I would like to know what do you others think of my case.

Sorry Piper!

From now on, I will refer to everyone as he/she, so that I don't make that mistake again. :P

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It is day 3.

12 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

2 votes for a homeless harpy (Filter, Thiocyanide)

2 votes for Piper of Chaos (Crusader, Ser Spider)

2 votes for Crusader (Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack)

1 vote for Thiocyanide (a homeless harpy)

1 vote for Halo (Piper of Chaos)

4 players have not voted: Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey.

28 Hours or so to go.

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And my secret reason? I saw Thio hinting to be a roled innocent. It was pretty obvious. I, WJ, and Filter saw it. Piper could have spotted it as well. Notice this:

-------------

First thing, he obviously sucks up to WJ. Second, and more important, thing is: this post was made only a few posts before his case on Thio. It seems probable to me that he saw Thio's hints in the meantime, and decided to make a case on him. Remember the previous game, in which FM Piper pushed hard to lynch the person he believed to be a roled innocent. Furthermore, he decided to stay on Thio even when Daed was up to 6 votes (out of 8 needed), and yet, Daed was his prime suspect just a few posts ago.

Piper responding to my accusation of him not being on Gert's mob. He completely ignored the accusation of not being on Daed's mob, which was in the same post:

I don't think so. Daed, one member of your team, was already keen on Shabba getting lynched. It would make us very suspicious of you if you played the same cards. You just quietly placed your 'joke' vote.

So, what have we got from Piper so far? Some jokes, avoiding both of the FM mobs, and making a case on a probable innocent role, at the time when second mob was going on on a person who he was recently extremely suspicious of. I really can't think of a better place to lay my vote on right now.

Piper of Chaos

* applauds Spidey *

You are right, dude, looks like you're a promising mafia n00b. Yes, I saw that Thio was hinting at a role. You are wrong about my motive though. My reason to vote for him was to make him lynchable, so that the killers would not attack him. I knew that he wouldn't be lynched yesterday, it was pretty obvious. And I do believe his claim. I don't believe a bad guy would drop such obvious hints. Please don't do this again, when you're roled, Thio. It gets you killed. It does.

My vote on Halo is or was based on his statement that the guard could have blocked the SK. This might be true, but the guard could have blocked the last remaining FM, too. I wondered if Halo slipped here, being a FM who knew that his kill went through and wondered what happened to the SK.

Piper, if you're theory is correct, then you've essentially narrowed down the SK suspect list to 3 people. Do you still think your theory is correct? Personally, while I think it's an interesting thought, I have my doubts.

Well, it's a theory. It's how I would have acted for sure. A point against this theory is that the SK could have opportunisticly hopped on the Daedalus mob without presenting a real danger for the FM, mainly because Lany was the obvious kill (Kat to a lesser extent IMO). Still, if I was the FM SK, my logic would have told me that the remaining FMwould try to kill someone from the Daedalus mob, so I would have refrained to hop on it.

Edit: changed 'FM' into 'SK' in the last paragraph

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Who do you suspect right now?

Thio and Halo are the two people left that my gut kept rumbling on about. I suppose that what I thought was a bit off about Thio could be because he's roled. As it stands, I believe that he's an innocent guard. As for Halo, I've reread him, and I've got nothing that'd justify the bad vibes. While I do rely on my gut a lot, Day 3's a bit late for me to vote based purely on vibes.

People that I think are innocent: Filter, Kilgrey, Piper, Thio, WJ. To be honest, I'm getting an innocent feel from Crusader as well, but he's pissing me off right now.

No read on JKMan or Kat. JKMan could stand to talk a little more. Kat's been your typical WJ sheep, which is a perfectly valid strategy, all things considered. Not really too concerned with either right now. Similarly, I have no real vibe read on Ser Spider and Harpy. Ser Spider seems pretty genuine to me. Harpy's just... the same as last game really. She's weird.

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For the record, Kat, my secret reason for lynching Daedalus was that I read between the lines and saw that Thio was hinting at being the guard. And that he had guarded Daedalus on night 1, so Daedalus could have been the SK. It was another point against Daedalus, but I didn't want to come right out and say it, just in case the FM/SK somehow failed to realize that he was hinting he was the guard.

Yeah, I actually figured that out yesterday and went :bang: for possibly revealing his role. I guess whoever killed Lany last night didn't see the same thing. Sorry for putting pressure on you, Thio.

Edit: Needless to say, I believe Thio's claim. Need to finish reading the thread, though.

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Piper, don't you think I'd drop such obvious hints in the presence of the players I did for said reaction? I'd say it worked excellently. I wasn't killed, was I? I expected somebody would try to get me lynched. They did. Thanks, by the way.

No problem, Kat. It only helped out in the end. No FM would bother killing what appeared to be a lynchable target.

I'm going to remove my vote for now. I did some rereading at work (Yay for computer access) and I'm not sure what I'd like to do with my vote right now. While I'm getting bad vibes from Harpy, I'm also nervous about Crusader. I think his vote on Piper is the first vote he's put out all game.

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I still try to understand Daedalus yesterdays behaviour. What was he up to? No claim, some kind of resignation in the end, but OTOH he tried to manipulate us by giving us a suspect list. His resignation might be a sign that he was the last FM - even if he had claimed a role or whatever, it would have been impossible for him to win the game. If he had a partner though, he could have tried to sow some more chaos and to win another day or two by claiming.

However, if we have to deal with three FM, is there also a symp?

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I still try to understand Daedalus yesterdays behaviour. What was he up to? No claim, some kind of resignation in the end, but OTOH he tried to manipulate us by giving us a suspect list. His resignation might be a sign that he was the last FM - even if he had claimed a role or whatever, it would have been impossible for him to win the game. If he had a partner though, he could have tried to sow some more chaos and to win another day or two by claiming.

However, if we have to deal with three FM, is there also a symp?

His suspicions deserve credit in this one sense:

He also wanted the SK dead.

Thus, they can be useful if you think about that.

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Piper, don't you think I'd drop such obvious hints in the presence of the players I did for said reaction? I'd say it worked excellently. I wasn't killed, was I? I expected somebody would try to get me lynched. They did. Thanks, by the way.

No problem, Kat. It only helped out in the end. No FM would bother killing what appeared to be a lynchable target.

I'm going to remove my vote for now. I did some rereading at work (Yay for computer access) and I'm not sure what I'd like to do with my vote right now. While I'm getting bad vibes from Harpy, I'm also nervous about Crusader. I think his vote on Piper is the first vote he's put out all game.

Ehm, so you made an obvious role hint to get the attention of the killers, just to hope that others would help to make you lynchable? Don't you think that the killers wouldn't have considered to kill you at all, if you had not made these unsubtle clues? :uhoh:

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Ehm, so you made an obvious role hint to get the attention of the killers, just to hope that others would help to make you lynchable? Don't you think that the killers wouldn't have considered to kill you at all, if you had not made these unsubtle clues? :uhoh:

I'm still not sure what Lany and Week did to make themselves more lynchable than WJ. So I can't say I know how the FMs minds were working.

ETA: Also, Piper, there were people who thought I was false-hinting. Harpy still thinks I was. Those people actually wanted me dead. I'd say it was smart.

As far as the FM team goes, I think there has to be a third:

- Gertrude was killed day one, and I blocked Daed. SK coulda been that night, yes.

- Dead was lynched, and we still had a night kill. Thus, one of these kills had to be an FM, as the SK can only act on every other night.

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- Gertrude was killed day one, and I blocked Daed. SK coulda been that night, yes.

- Dead was lynched, and we still had a night kill. Thus, one of these kills had to be an FM, as the SK can only act on every other night.

Right, I forgot that you blocked Daedalus. Apparently my last bottle of beer was poisoned. This means in fact that there is another FM out there.

* puts on hypnotic voice *

You all forget my last post.

It has never been there.

It - has - never - been - there.

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I'm still not sure what Lany and Week did to make themselves more lynchable than WJ. So I can't say I know how the FMs minds were working.

You mean killable, right?

The point is that WJ has been the number 1 target last night. Either the killers targeted him, and failed because of another night action (healer/guard), or they didn't dare to attack him because he was the obvious heal. Lany's problem was that she was only number 2 on the list - and if you canot kill the big cheese, you go for the next on the list.

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You mean killable, right?

The point is that WJ has been the number 1 target last night. Either the killers targeted him, and failed because of another night action (healer/guard), or they didn't dare to attack him because he was the obvious heal. Lany's problem was that she was only number 2 on the list - and if you canot kill the big cheese, you go for the next on the list.

Yes, I meant killable.

OK, but why that order? Why those two? There are undoubtedly other powerful players here.

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Piper - I already explained why I thought the SK's kill was prevented. Pay more attention to my posts :P

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Yes, I meant killable.

OK, but why that order? Why those two? There are undoubtedly other powerful players here.

Degree of guilt/pressure I would assume? WJ and Lany weren't on anyone's suspect lists really.

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Piper - I already explained why I thought the SK's kill was prevented. Pay more attention to my posts :P

I know. But the Halo that I know doesn't read the morning scenes at all. :P

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I know. But the Halo that I know doesn't read the morning scenes at all. :P

Just the parts where people die :P

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It is day 3.

12 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

2 votes for Crusader (Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack)

2 votes for Piper of Chaos (Crusader, Ser Spider)

1 vote for Halo (Piper of Chaos)

1 vote for Thiocyanide (a homeless harpy)

1 vote for a homeless harpy (Filter)

5 players have not voted: Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Thiocyanide.

25 hours 10 mins to go... if I've done the math correctly

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