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Mexal

ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

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I hardly think I'm in over my head and I hardly think the town is screwed without you. Everyone here seems pretty competent.

I never said the innocents were screwed without me. You fail at reading comprehension.

You come across as obnoxiously arrogant if all you are is a random townie who wants to leech the protects every night. It's not in the towns best interest to do that. While you strike me as arrogant, you don't strike me as stupid and I find it very scummy and that you are looking for reasons to explain why you maybe still alive.

So wait. You are brand new to our community. Everyone else here says that you're on the wrong track. They tell you that my behavior is a 'null tell' and that they'd expect me to act this way when innocent. Yet you insist on ranting against me for this particular reason anyway. And I'm the one who's arrogant? Well, join the club. You apparently think you know me better than the people who have played against me for the past few years. It's truly amazing, given that you've known me for all of 2 days.

Anyway, yeah, I'm arrogant. I think I'm extremely valuable to the innocents, regardless of whether or not I have a role. I do believe that a healer is better off healing me early in the game than trying to guess at who might be roled. If you don't like that....too bad?

That said, unfortunately, I do have a role in this particular game. I wish I didn't, because it's fairly clear at this point that Thio is going to pull the healer away from me, and I need that protection. Sorry Thio, but I'm more important than you, even if you are a guard.

I'm a Finder with one investigation. Yes, the mods included a limited Finder in a CF game. Yes, it makes me nervous about the possible power of the FM team - in fact, it has me convinced that they are probably 3 FM, rather than 2 FM and a symp.

The thing is, I haven't used my power yet. I almost used it on night 2, but I decided to take a chance and save it. That was a mistake. Now I really need to survive to day 4, so I can use my power tonight and share the results with you tomorrow. If that means Thio dies tonight.....sorry, but I think it's worth it. My power plus my experience makes me the more valuable asset.

So Healer....please protect me tonight. Thanks.

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2 Piper of Chaos:

Couse my low activity? It's useless. IMHO, you show too much activity trying to lynch Thiocyanide.

Yes, it's your lack of activity plus WJ's suspect list. Since we are currently in a rather good position, I'm for narrowing down the suspect pool by lynching those players who are blind spots.

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Yes, it's your lack of activity plus WJ's suspect list. Since we are currently in a rather good position, I'm for narrowing down the suspect pool by lynching those players who are blind spots.

That's kind of how I feel too. I'm currently torn between lynching one of the blind spots (Crusader or JKMan) or lynching Ser Spider, who is my top suspect.

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That's interesting. A one-shot finder? I guess we won't have a BP then. I had to think a bit about the healing issue, but I guess a living WJ who is able to give us an investigation result tomorrow is worth a heal - even if that means that we should loose our guard.

Are you planning to tell us your investigation target today?

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It is day 3.

12 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

3 votes for a homeless harpy (Filter, Kilgrey, Kat)

3 votes for Crusader (Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack, Piper of Chaos)

1 vote for Kilgrey (a homeless harpy)

1 vote for Shadowbaby (Ser Spider)

1 vote for Ser Spider (Halo)

1 vote for Piper of Chaos (Crusader)

2 players have not voted: JKMan, Thiocyanide.

You have 11 hours remaining in Day 3!

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Where the hell is everyone? This is starting to get really annoying. The day is starting to run out, and people need to post.

Are you planning to tell us your investigation target today?

I haven't decided yet. Will let you know later today if I'm going to share it or keep it to myself.

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Where the hell is everyone? This is starting to get really annoying. The day is starting to run out, and people need to post.

I'm around. Just waiting for people to make some decisive decisions as to what we're doing today. Ser Spider has bothered me since day 1 which is why I currently have my vote on him, but I don't think it's likely that people will follow me there.

Crusader doesn't bother me that much... no more than JKman or the other quiet players who I'm forgetting even exist half the time. Wouldn't shed a tear if any one of them were to be lynched, but don't really desire joining the mob unless they're votes away from execution.

In terms of Harpy... I really don't have a clue. She's playing like she played as Caron and she turned up innocent then, but I'd be willing to join the mob against her just because... well she confuses me.

Shadowbaby would seem to be the most obvious choice for a lynch today. People say she's acting out of pattern and the alleged guard also blocked her. What I don't get is why people aren't even considering voting for her today.

Just one thing I think people are forgetting: Yes the SK is a lone killer but that doesn't mean he/she doesn't have a symp.

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Where the hell is everyone? This is starting to get really annoying. The day is starting to run out, and people need to post.

I was at work. I maintain that Harpy has acted the way I expect an FM to act, and her defenses have been poor. The problem is they've been so poor, and her actions so obviously at odds with anything I usually view as innocent, I'm having a hard time looking anywhere else. I often yell at people for being tunnel-visioned, so I'm going to back away and take a second look.

Remove vote for the time being. I'll take this case up again after a fresh re-read.

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Ser Spider has bothered me since day 1 which is why I currently have my vote on him, but I don't think it's likely that people will follow me there.

I'm following you onto Ser Spider. I'll post more of a case in a little bit. It's basically a repeat of things I've already said earlier in the thread.

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You know, I just realized there was another explanation for only one kill both nights. SK and FM's picked the same target one of those nights.

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Case against Ser Spider.

His approach to the Gert lynch on day 1

His post when the vote count is 5 for Gert and 2 for Shadowbaby -

Getting bad vibes from Shabba, Halo, and to an extent, Gert. She seems like a fine lynch option...damn, I mostly agree with WJ, but I won't vote her just yet, as 4 votes is enough pressure, and I'll be around before the end.

Shadow, baby, time to play insomniac!

He says Gert is a fine option. He mostly agrees with my case. But he votes for Shadowbaby instead, based on 'bad vibes'. His vote makes Shadowbaby into a viable alternative to lynching Gertrude.

He later explains -

I suspect Gert to a certain level. But I'm far from convinced. She had 4 votes on her, which was enough to apply some pressure, and I didn't want to be the one to get the lynch rolling. I felt that Shabba needed some extra pressure.

Apparently he also wanted extra pressure on Shadowbaby.

So the sum total of his reasoning was 'bad vibes' plus 'more pressure on somebody other than Gert'. Doesn't seem like much. Its extremely strange that he would keep his vote on Shadow, instead of moving it to Gert, if he really 'agreed with the case against Gert' and 'suspected Gert to a certain level'.

Yet thats exactly what he does - keeps his vote on Shadowbaby. For no logical reason whatsoever. Could the real reason possibly be that he had to go to sleep, and he wanted to keep Shadow as a viable lynch option, just in case Gert could be saved? When he announced that he needed to leave the thread and wouldn't be back prior to the morning, the vote count was 6 for Gert and 4 for Shadow. If he had moved his vote from Shadow to Gert, he would have taken away the only alternative to a Gert lynch, thereby sealing Gert's fate. If he was her partner, he wouldn't have wanted to do that.

Also, note that Gert hadn't even voted yet. She would have obviously voted for Shadowbaby to save herself. So Shadow was a very viable alternative - there was good reason for her team to think that the vote count was soon going to be 6 for Gert and 5 for Shadow, after Gert cast her vote.

So, the suspicious things here are:

1) Votes for Shadowbaby instead of Gert, in spite of having no case against Shadow and agreeing with the case on Gert.

2) Says that he agrees with the case on Gert, but doesn't follow that up with a vote. Makes it look as if he wanted to be grouped in with the people who suspected Gert, in case she was lynched and came up guilty. He wanted to use his vote to help Gert, even while he attempted to distance himself from her by agreeing with the case against her.

Contradiction between his defense for himself and his vote for Daedalus

While defending himself, he says -

your case, although fine, and loved by you, makes me look stupid if indeed I'm an FM. I hate underestimation for the sake of newbness...me not following your lynch like the other n00bs, is it really that suspicious?

Okay, so he's saying he'd have to be a pretty stupid FM to not cut ties with his partner and vote for her. I've already shown that he had plenty of reason to keep his vote on Shadow - at the time when he was leaving the thread to go to sleep, she was still a very viable alternative to the Gert lynch.

Then he follows that up by saying -

Daedalus - It would be great to lynch two FM in a row...and that's the only thing that speaks in his favour, since he is an obvious lynch today. Overdefending himself, like she did with Gert...not rock-solid evidence, but IMO the best lynch today.

Much of the case against Daedalus was based on his defense of Gert, and the fact that he pushed the Shadow lynch instead of the Gert lynch. How can Spider justify a vote for Daedalus, when the very defense that Spider is using to defend himself could also apply in large part to Daedalus?

To me, it looks as if he's jumping on the Daedalus lynch mob in an attempt to not repeat the same mistake he made during the Gert lynch. He knows he needs to cut ties with his partner this time, so he votes for him, in spite of the reality that his vote is a contradiction of the argument he was using to defend himself earlier in the day. There's no logic to his behavior here - it seems likely that he is driven by some ulterior motive.

Other times where he was opportunistic

This was Kat's case against him on day 1. Shadow says -

I also get amazingly good vibes from Kilgrey. Quite frankly, I'll probably have her VPI for the entire game. Bad vibes on Thio, Halo and Gert.

Spider says -

The main reason why I trust KilGrey is that Malc was unintentionaly spoiled...and that's something I associate with the innocents.

Getting bad vibes from Shabba, Halo, and to an extent, Gert.

So he trusts Kilgrey, just like Shadow. And he doesn't like Halo or Gert, just like Shadow. Yet he has bad vibes about Shadowbaby? How does that make sense? That's the same post in which he casts a vote for Shadowbaby. Putting her at 3 votes, and making her a viable alternative to the Gert lynch. Could it possibly be that he's just making up a reason to vote for Shadowbaby? That he isn't being genuine about his 'bad vibes'? Yeah, I think so.

Lany's suspect list

Lany suspected Ser Spider -

That leaves me with Dead and Ser Spider. Both are in my opinion over reacting, but I do not think they are partners. I think Ser Spider was partnered with Gert and Dead as the SK. I am using most supposition on that.

I have a few too many likely innocnets I think, and still too many that I am just not sure of. I would vote for either Dead or Ser Spider today.

Daedalus was dead, so Spider was likely going to be her top suspect on day 3. He knew that she was going to be going after him, so he had motive to kill her.

Summary

1) Votes for Shadowbaby instead of Gert. In spite of agreeing with much of the case against Gert and only suspecting Shadow for bad vibes.

2) Has the same suspect list and VPI list as Shadowbaby. So where are the bad vibes coming from? Seems like a manufactured excuse to vote for her.

3) Says he agrees with much of the case on Gert, but doesn't vote for her. Could have been an attempt to create distance, even while he worked to keep Shadow as a viable alternative lynch.

4) Defends himself by saying that he'd have to be a stupid FM to not cut ties with his partner (Gert) and vote for her. Then, later, he votes for Daedalus in spite of the fact that much of the case against Daedalus was that he defended his partner. Is a clear contradiction.

5) Was Lany's top suspect before she died. He had motive to kill her.

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Summary

1) Votes for Shadowbaby instead of Gert. In spite of agreeing with much of the case against Gert and only suspecting Shadow for bad vibes.

2) Has the same suspect list and VPI list as Shadowbaby. So where are the bad vibes coming from? Seems like a manufactured excuse to vote for her.

3) Says he agrees with much of the case on Gert, but doesn't vote for her. Could have been an attempt to create distance, even while he worked to keep Shadow as a viable alternative lynch.

4) Defends himself by saying that he'd have to be a stupid FM to not cut ties with his partner (Gert) and vote for her. Then, later, he votes for Daedalus in spite of the fact that much of the case against Daedalus was that he defended his partner. Is a clear contradiction.

5) Was Lany's top suspect before she died. He had motive to kill her.

Ok, I'm here just in time to defend myself. Sweet.

1,3) I did not vote Shabba only because of the bad vibes. I thought (and still think) that her posting is scummy and unusual. Vibes are the reason why I voted her instead of Gert, and only one among them. The other was that I wanted to keep our options opened, since Gert was at the time pretty much the only real case around, and I was trying to see if there are some better lynches around. The reasons for me keeping my vote on Shabba later on are-If I hopped on the train that late, I could be suspected for that in the same way I an suspected now, and even more easily if she turned up innocent. Next, it was pretty obvious that Gert lynch was going to happen, and I, not knowing if Gert will come up innocent or rotten, was trying to make a new case, to poke another suspect. However, all that pressure (4 votes) didn't get Shabba to open up, and I still find her suspicious.

2) If I were a FM, wouldn't it be a lot easier to come up with a suspect list entirely different from the one of the person who I'm about to vote? You can see that I still suspect the same people. But the reason that we suspect the same people just isn't the reason why I shouldn't vote someone I suspect. Furthermore, we both suspected Halo for bad vibes, and that was pretty much the only clear agreement. Gert was suspected by almost everyone, and while she VPIed Kilgrey for vibes, I did it because Malc was spoiled, which is more understandable if he was an innocent, and I think so because of the way I ended the previous game, and the same way Soph did a game before that. Innocent is more likely to be spoiled because the only thing a FM can learn is the identity of the SK, and the other way around. And, to end it, she suspected Thio, who I PIed.

4) Look, Daed was doomed from the beginning, b/c he defended Gert. I didn't. If he voted Gert after defending her, it would have made him even more suspicious. He could only remain voting for Shabba, and hope that Gert would not be lynched. I had a choice, since I even suspected Gert, and I chose to remain on Shabba for the reasons listed. So, the situation is clearly different.

5) First thing, I think it's hard to tease out the meanings of the night kills. I agree that I'm the most probable person to have killed Lany, since I was her only remaining suspect. But that exactly is the reason why I wouldn't have gone for her. It would make me look suspicious. Either someone tried to frame me, or she was killed b/c she was a VPI who wasn't likely to be protected. If I was a baddie to kill that night, I would have probably gone for Thio. He had no connection with me whatsoever, and I knew that he was a roled innocent, and yet not likely to be healed.

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Ooh. I admit that throws quite a monkey wrench in my game, WJ. That means that, if we fail to lynch the FM and I fail to block him/her, I'm dead. Well, I hope you use the find well (Not that I doubt you would).

I'm going to go ahead and vote on Ser Spider. I don't like Crusader, but it's more likely that he's playing a bad game than him being an FM/SK at this point.

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First I'm going to snip something in your defense that has actually raised my suspicions of you.

The reasons for me keeping my vote on Shabba later on are-If I hopped on the train that late, I could be suspected for that in the same way I an suspected now, and even more easily if she turned up innocent.

That's a terrible reason to keep a vote, especially on day 1. The people most likely to be acting based on whether or not something will be suspicious are generally people that are worried about appearing suspicious (I.E. people with important roles, or killers).

5) First thing, I think it's hard to tease out the meanings of the night kills. I agree that I'm the most probable person to have killed Lany, since I was her only remaining suspect. But that exactly is the reason why I wouldn't have gone for her. It would make me look suspicious. Either someone tried to frame me, or she was killed b/c she was a VPI who wasn't likely to be protected. If I was a baddie to kill that night, I would have probably gone for Thio. He had no connection with me whatsoever, and I knew that he was a roled innocent, and yet not likely to be healed.

I will however agree with your point that analyzing night kills is generally pure WIFOM, but you're WIFOM'ing it right back as your defense.

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Ok, spider-sense update:

Remains silent near-WJ, Thio, JKMan

Slightly tickles (grey area)-Piper, Kat, Filter, Kilgrey

Goes berserk-Shabba, Halo

Steps aside and lets the brain to say: I'm not so suspicious of these, but would participate in their lynch just to clarify things up-Harpy, Crusader.

So, since none of my suspects is going down today, I'll

Remove vote

vote Crusader.

If that doesn't get him to post, IMO we don't need him. Care to post a posty post, Crus?:D

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