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Mexal

ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

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Is anyone else really bored by the snails pace of this game lately? At this point I'm ready to vote for the easiest lynch option just to keep the game a-movin'.

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I actually don't know what to make of this new found interest myself; I mean, on some level it's to be expected - people tend to follow WJ's lead - but I don't like people just blindly following, and in my mind that's all that JKMan, Thio, and Crusader have done all game.

For that reason I'm switching to Shadowbaby.

You're switching off of Ser Spider because I made a case against him, and other people agreed with it? So wait. He deserved your vote when it was just you voting for him. But now that others agree and are actually providing reasons, he no longer deserves your vote? Please explain that one to me.

And explain how it even matters that other people are agreeing. There probably aren't any FM partners or symps left in the game. So if we attack a FM/SK, we aren't going to see a bunch of people rush to their defense.

Is it that you think the people agreeing with me are the FM/SK, jumping onto my target to kiss up to me and hide behind me? That's pretty much the only explanation that would make sense for your behavior. But if thats the case, then why aren't you voting for one of them, instead of Shadow?

I don't understand your change of vote at all, and to be honest, it makes me suspect you a fair amount. Are you the SK trying to avoid being a part of the lynch mob, for whatever reason?

If we expect two night kills and we only get one it more than likely means something prevented the other one from going through. The 'guard' stated he blocked SB tonight, so I'd say that's a rather strong point against her right there. I don't get why people would prefer to leave her alone today.

Lynching Shadowbaby based on 1 night of there being 1 kill while she was guarded is working with only half of the information. If she's guarded for 2 nights in a row, and we only get 1 kill for 2 nights in a row, then we have a very strong indication that she is the SK. Remember, the SK can only kill every other day. Why not wait the extra night and see what happens? Why not get all of the available information, instead of rushing to prematurely lynch her now.

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It is day 3.

12 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

4 votes for Crusader (Shadowbaby, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, JKMan)

3 votes for Ser Spider ( Whiskeyjack, Thiocyanide, a homeless harpy )

3 votes for a homeless harpy (Kilgrey, Kat, Filter)

1 vote for Piper of Chaos (Crusader)

1 vote for Shadowbaby (Halo)

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Is anyone else really bored by the snails pace of this game lately? At this point I'm ready to vote for the easiest lynch option just to keep the game a-movin'.

If you want the easiest lynch option, Shadowbaby is definitely a wrong choice. Better vote for Crusader or Spider or me.

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By the way, I'm willing to compromise on Crusader to get a lynch. I'd prefer Ser Spider, because I believe there's substantial evidence against him. By contrast, the problem with Crusader is that there isn't any evidence either for or against him - he's a blank slate. Meaning he could fit as the last FM or the SK or as the god damn Queen of England. Who the hell knows. The main point against him is that other people have been eliminated (IMO) as FM suspects by process of elimination. He's one of the few options left, and is therefore a player worth lynching at some point, if necessary.

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By the way, I'm willing to compromise on Crusader to get a lynch.

I'd prefer a compromise with a more substantial case, but since we have lynched 2 FM's in a row, I wouldn't be completely opposed to taking out one of the wild cards.

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I'd prefer a compromise with a more substantial case, but since we have lynched 2 FM's in a row, I wouldn't be completely opposed to taking out one of the wild cards.

Can you please summarize the case against Harpy?

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Can you please summarize the case against Harpy?

I was referring to the fact that I'd vote for Ser Spider if I had to, but yes, incoming shortly.

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It is day 3.

12 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

5 votes for Crusader (Shadowbaby, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, JKMan, Thiocyanide)

3 votes for a homeless harpy (Kilgrey, Kat, Filter)

2 votes for Ser Spider (Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy)

1 vote for Piper of Chaos (Crusader)

1 vote for Shadowbaby (Halo

4 hours, my pizizzles.

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Is it that you think the people agreeing with me are the FM/SK, jumping onto my target to kiss up to me and hide behind me? That's pretty much the only explanation that would make sense for your behavior. But if thats the case, then why aren't you voting for one of them, instead of Shadow?

Yes, I think it's a possibility. With all respect, I don't think it's that substantive of a case that people should just jump on the wagon without providing some reasoning of their own. The fact that it seems to be the same people who continue to do this has me a little concerned.

Why am I not voting for one of them instead? The common consensus is Thio is an innocent guard - and frankly though I find some of his behaviour (and his 'holiday') odd, I'm having more and more trouble coming up with scenarios where he'd actually be evil; I'm fine with lynching JKMan, Crusader or Harpy but on the first two there's not much to build a case on and Harpy just has me genuinely confused. I see much more evidence to pointing towards Shadowbaby.

For another thing I’m not entirely convinced by my own (lack of?) reasoning… I’d just be happier with a Shadowbaby lynch than a Ser Spider right now. Wouldn’t mind Mind seeing either one go though.

I don't understand your change of vote at all, and to be honest, it makes me suspect you a fair amount. Are you the SK trying to avoid being a part of the lynch mob, for whatever reason?

No.

I think subconsciously though I may be trying to generate some suspicion my way... this game is growing quite stagnant.

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Thio, who are your own suspects? And why?

a homeless harpy - Has been playing an... odd game the entire time. I'm especially worried that he latched onto voting for me, even after I'd guard-revealed, and how somehow their lynch meant my lynch/death, or something like that.

Shadowbaby - Rock that middle line with minimal posting on actual topics!

Ser Spider - For previous aforementioned reasons, as well as general bad gut feeling.

Crusader - Only seems to post as often as necessary.

It seems like it'll be one of the last two (These aren't in any order, by the way, and this is no means a comprehensive list of my reasons for suspicion).

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Yes, I think it's a possibility. With all respect, I don't think it's that substantive of a case that people should just jump on the wagon without providing some reasoning of their own. The fact that it seems to be the same people who continue to do this has me a little concerned.

Why am I not voting for one of them instead? The common consensus is Thio is an innocent guard - and frankly though I find some of his behaviour (and his 'holiday') odd, I'm having more and more trouble coming up with scenarios where he'd actually be evil; I'm fine with lynching JKMan, Crusader or Harpy but on the first two there's not much to build a case on and Harpy just has me genuinely confused. I see much more evidence to pointing towards Shadowbaby.

Crusader isn't voting for Ser Spider. Don't think he ever has. And JKMan admitted that his vote was a joke, and removed his vote almost immediately. The only people who voted Spider after me and kept it there for a while were Thio and Harpy. As you say, Thio is probably the Guard. So really it comes down to Harpy.

If you're suspicious of her and you think she's being opportunistic, then I guess that could be a reason to not vote for Ser Spider. If not...then I still don't see why you removed your vote.

I’d just be happier with a Shadowbaby lynch than a Ser Spider right now.

You skipped over my answer as to why I'm not interested in lynching Shadow today. I think it's a pretty logical reason. What's your response?

this game is growing quite stagnant.

You keep saying that. And I do agree that the game has gotten a bit slow. But why don't you help to rectify it, by making a case of your own? Or just re-reading people, to see if you can come up with anything. If you think there's a problem, please try to help solve it.

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Cool, something happened during my absence! :)

WJ made some good points about Spdey which we should keep in mind. Still, I have some doubts about it, mainly because I had the same bad vibes regarding Shadow on day 1. Second, it was day 1 where almost everyone is poking around blindly, so there's not always a reasonable explanation for what you're doing. I will be here for two more hours and I'm willing to switch my vote, although I'm not very happy about it.

I'm definitely not following the mob on Harpy. I think she's having a hard time right now for being the n00b, but her posts give me the impression that she is trying to contribute. The main problem I see here is that she is focused mainly on those people who are treating her bad - which is a behaviour that I have seen from more than one unexperienced player - mods inclusive - before. Together with WJ, Kat and Kilgrey she is one of those players that I trust the most - not to forget Thio, of course.

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Shabba's input hasn't been what I expected it to be. I pressured her on day 1, but the only defense she came up with was 'I don't get bad vibes from myself'. Her posting has been weird to me, since I saw her play differently, and better, in games 46.5 and 47. Now, the only thing she has are good vibes on few people, her only suspect is Halo, and I she didn't even bother making a case on him. Yet, she is PI to most of you simply because Daed voted her on day 1. She is successfully staying under the radar, seems not eager to catch the remaining baddies, just happy that no-one suspects her.

Several points I wanted to make:

1) Your pressure on Day 1 must not have been very pressuring since I don't remember it.

2) Are you trying to say that when I am innocent, I play well/better, and when I am evil, I play well/better. And now, because I'm not playing at the same level of well/better, I must be evil? ...Okay. I don't follow, but okay.

3) Halo is on my suspect list, yes. I did try to make a case on him, and my efforts proved futile since he hasn't done anything wrong, so I posted no case on him.

4) I don't think no one suspects me. I was Lynch Candidate Numero 2 back on Day 1 after all. Somebody must've suspected me to get that far, don't you think?

Shadowbaby - Rock that middle line with minimal posting on actual topics!

:hat:

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Several points I wanted to make:

1) Your pressure on Day 1 must not have been very pressuring since I don't remember it.

4) I don't think no one suspects me. I was Lynch Candidate Numero 2 back on Day 1 after all. Somebody must've suspected me to get that far, don't you think?

These points are contradictive. I didn't say that I'm the only one to pressure you. 4 votes were on you, and yet you changed nothing, or even bothered responding.

And I think that the sudden change in your playstyle would more likely be explained by a FM seeking a new tactic than by ...erm, what was your explanation?

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I noticed this post of Ser Spider:

I find it a weak attempt to appease WJ and his sheep before it is too late. He saw the danger and wanted to reverse the trend. Well, if he was so blatantly innocent, imho, he wouldn't bother that much. Ok, let me be one of the sheep. This lynch is at least probable.

Ser Spider

Emphasis mine.

What on earth makes you think that? I am very eager to play any way.

And I know that sucking up to WJ wasn't going to help me in any way. Thus, I wasn't sucking up to him.

Leaving now. I have to sleep.

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These points are contradictive. I didn't say that I'm the only one to pressure you. 4 votes were on you, and yet you changed nothing, or even bothered responding.

And I think that the sudden change in your playstyle would more likely be explained by a FM seeking a new tactic than by ...erm, what was your explanation?

These points don't contradict each other at all. People have and still do suspect me. Apparently I had four votes on me, so four people must've thought I was a worthy lynch. This is true, yes?

And no, I didn't change anything. I didn't feel pressured to change anything because I saw no reason to change anything. I didn't see anything worth responding to either. The bulk of the case against me, especially back on Day 1, was for having very little substance for my post count. True dat. Am I supposed to respond to those accusations? They're not false. I don't deny it. If the accusation is true, what's there to respond to?

ETA: I think any FM that decides "I will spam a lot, but say nothing of value!" may be lacking in the way of braincells.

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You skipped over my answer as to why I'm not interested in lynching Shadow today. I think it's a pretty logical reason. What's your response?

You're right, if we're going to play cautiously there's no reason to lynch her today over say tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day - well unless Thio is killed tonight. Still, there's also no reason for the SK to fall into the trap you're trying to lay for them either. Why would they not just withhold their kill if not withholding it would make SB a VPI in everyone's eyes? In two days time people will want to lynch her anyway because there will have been 4 days that have gone by without a second kill, so why postpone the inevitable?

You keep saying that. And I do agree that the game has gotten a bit slow. But why don't you help to rectify it, by making a case of your own? Or just re-reading people, to see if you can come up with anything. If you think there's a problem, please try to help solve it.

I might do a reread or two, but you should know by now I'm not one for the case making. Not only are most my suspects well covered at this time, but both the things you mention involve work with little payoff - especially when you consider CF results reveal a lot more about someone than I ever could.

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