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House Dondarrion

Mafia Game 48- It's over

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If the innocents have any interest in winning this game they better reconsider lynching me today. I have no defense against Blackwood other than to say they must have been preparing for a FM reveal for some time now. I'll try to find the posts that linked Martell to Bolton, but to be frank, he wasn't my first choice in targets.

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Okay, so here's the plan we need to follow for the rest of the game.

Day 6 - Lynch Tyrell - based on Blackwood's reveal, he's going to turn up cult

Night 6 - FM kill a cult suspect - any one of Arryn, Baratheon, or Tully works

6 players left - 2 FM, 1 or 2 cult, 2 or 3 innocents

If we fail to lynch a FM on Day 7, we will lose to the FM on day 8 (they'd have 2/4 players)

Day 7 - lynch Blackwood - he's done his work, now we turn on him

Night 7 - FM kill a cult suspect

Cult convert again

4 players left - 1 FM, 1-2 cult, 1-2 innocents

Okay, at this point, we once again have to lynch a FM or they win (if we fail, they are at 1 out of 2 players next day and win). At the same time, if there are 2 cult left, they win. :unsure: So the only way we can win is if the FM nail a cultist on Night 6 or Night 7. Hopefully, they have good aim (for once). So...

If the distribution is like this - 1 FM, 2 cult, 1 innocent - then we have lost. It's a win for the FM or the cult.

If the distribution is like ths - 1 FM, 1 cult, 2 innocents - then we have a chance. Lynch the FM, to keep him from winning the next day.

So...we have to lynch a FM. If Blackwood is FM, the other one has to be one of Stark or Dayne. I personally would advocate lynching Stark. Blackwood has been defending him subtly all day. And Blackwood listed him last on his suspect list at the start of the day. I think they are probably partners, given this new information.

Day 8 - Lynch Stark

If he is innocent, its game over. But if he comes up as FM, then we have a good chance.

Night 8 - no kill

3 players left - 2 innocents, 1 cult

And its up to the innocents to find the last cultist and win the game. We still have a chance. We just need to do the following:

1) Lynch Tyrell today

2) Lynch Blackwood tomorrow

3) Lynch Stark on day 8, and hope I'm right about him being the last FM

4) Hope that the FM kill at least one cultist on night 7 and/or 8

If all of that happens, we win. Its actually not that far fetched.

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Hi I am here but I might have a longer break. I must cast a vote. We screwed once again killing innocents. I have a feeling we are being orchestrated by the cultists. I think I agree with Blackwood - it is pretty obvious that, in order to avoid the lynch, Tyrell lies through his teeth - he wants us to believe that he is a lesser evil when he is the major one. Such a sudden reveal, when he was in a relatively safe distance from lynching...why is he defending himself in such a way? Initially, I thought him too unimportant to be a cultist - my fault. I am deeply sorry I suspected Frey. I should have pressed Tyrell more the previous day. Damn it, I feel guilty.

Your spelling is as bad as your lies.

If anybody needs any more proof of Stark being the other FM, just look at these quotes.

Sorry FM, you can't win. All you can do is help us win by trying to kill cult members the next few nights.

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If anybody needs any more proof of Stark being the other FM, just look at these quotes.

Sorry FM, you can't win. All you can do is help us win by trying to kill cult members the next few nights.

:lol: Only one fact that is clear : Tyrell is lying. You assume too much.

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it sounds like a good plan...all except the lynching me part :P

I have worked for a cult defeat and will accept the innocents winning.

Good. :)

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:lol: Only one fact that is clear : Tyrell is lying. You assume too much.

You're clearly Blackwood's partner.

He listed you last on his suspect list.

He resisted voting for you, but was willing to vote for pretty much anybody else.

He's been subtly defending you all day.

You were certain that Tyrell was lying, just like Blackwood. There's no way you could have been so certain without being the other FM.

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You're clearly Blackwood's partner.

He listed you last on his suspect list.

Where? I was under an impression I was in his second tier. Sometimes even closer than that.

He resisted voting for you, but was willing to vote for pretty much anybody else.

It could have been said about plenty of other players who didn't vote for me and were innocents.

He's been subtly defending you all day.

I haven't noticed. Where?

You were certain that Tyrell was lying, just like Blackwood. There's no way you could have been so certain without being the other FM.

My gut feeling is, obviously, nothing you can believe in? Everybody has it but not me? Do you always know better than every player in the game? Seriously your arguments don't hold water. It boils down to the fact that we both (Blackwood with shiny blue eyes and me) saw through Tyrell's lie. Something you weren't so quick to perceive. A grudge? :) Come off it Reed.

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Where? I was under an impression I was in his second tier. Sometimes even closer than that.

Right here. His suspect list from earlier today -

Swann

Frey

Tyrell

Stark

It could have been said about plenty of other players who didn't vote for me and were innocents.

I haven't noticed. Where?

When Baratheon says he wants to pressure you, Blackwood pushes in another direction -

However, let's start off by pushing Stark to see if we can draw out a claim.

That might take a while. Other than this morning, Stark has only posted in the afternoons (est) at least for the last 20 posts (4 days)

I would rather move the game along. Not many people will be around this weekend and things are going to slow way down.

He clearly didn't want the pressure on you. Didn't want you to have to claim.

My gut feeling is, obviously, nothing you can believe? Everybody has it but not me? Do you always know better for every player in the game? Seriously your arguments don't hold water. It boils down to the fact that we both saw through Tyrell's lie. Something you weren't so quick to perceive. A grudge? :)

The only way somebody could immediately see through that lie (assuming it was a lie) was if they were the real FM.

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just to play devils advocate, im not on the list at all, reed.

ETA - Nevermind, you meant Blackwood's suspect list. True, but leaving the partner off is more suspicious than putting him last. Putting him last could be a small attempt at distance.

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Right here. His suspect list from earlier today -

It wasn't his only suspects list and my place has changed from time to time. It's not an argument, really.

When Baratheon says he wants to pressure you, Blackwood pushes in another direction

Or maybe it was just to tease Baratheon into making a real case? Sorry, I know the answer - you know the best.

He clearly didn't want the pressure on you. Didn't want you to have to claim.

Why do you think it would be such a difference for him?

The only way somebody could immediately see through that lie (assuming it was a lie) was if they were the real FM.

Sure. You wouldn't have seen that much so nobody would be able to see it unless... :rolleyes:

And, of course, you tend to foget that I did suspect Tyrell earlier in the game.

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blah blah blah

There's no point in arguing this with you. Of course you are going to defend yourself. I know what the evidence indicates to me.

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Man, why didn't I save my kill? :tantrum:

I wasn't converted. I've said it before, poor bastards don't need to convert me. I'm a total sheep anyhow.

I'm voting Baratheon for now.

You're a total sheep and you are randomly voting for me? :rolleyes:

Reed, that was my thinking as well re: Blackwood and Stark. That is why I looked back to see that Stark had actually posted twice in the morning EST. Why would Blackwood tell me he only posted in the afternoon so pressure wasn't worth it when Stark had clearly posted in the morning.

I'd be willing to vote Tyrell, however I feel a bit like we should leave him to the FM so that we are 1000% sure about him being cult and work to lynch someone else. Or is Tyrell already dead?

btw- Stark, Blackwood teasing me into making a real case? Bullshit man.

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There's no point in arguing this with you. Of course you are going to defend yourself. I know what the evidence indicates to me.

In no post was I cheeky enough to write "blah, blah, blah", my good ser. I am pleased to see you so sure of everything. :)

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