Mafia Game 48- It's over

[House Reed]

ok, so I was thinking. I did not believe that Bolton healed Reed the second night. (assuming that he was telling the truth about his role) which means that I think he was converted and the OC was on the target list and needed to be protected in case the Others killed them.

The only one of them left right now if Bartheon.

Is there anyone who thinks this even remotely possible?

Can you explain a little bit what you are saying here? I'm not sure I understand your argument.

[House Frey]

Well, Bolton was going to protect his partner no matter what. Doesn't matter if he was on a target list or no. A vig or rogue FM could lash out anywhere so number 1 priority is protecting a partner. (assuming he was a healer)

This is what Tully is getting at with his plea to the FM. Since Arryn has fessed up to the Manderly kill, and there was no FM kill - only the FM know why. A failed hit or a double strike.

Anyway - back to the list. I don't think it's significant that Bara is the only one left as he was lumped in with other suspects for pretty much the same reasons and Bolton did in fact turn up guilty. In theory, that should clear Bara of being a convert suspect.

[House Reed]

Anyway - back to the list. I don't think it's significant that Bara is the only one left as he was lumped in with other suspects for pretty much the same reasons and Bolton did in fact turn up guilty. In theory, that should clear Bara of being a convert suspect.

Right. But I think Tully is arguing that Bolton was the OC. Meaning that Baratheon would once again be the top night 1 convert suspect.

Personally, I find it very unlikely.

[Magic Mirror]

Can you explain a little bit what you are saying here? I'm not sure I understand your argument.

the assumption I started with first was Bolton told the truth about being the H/P.

I believed him when he said he healed you on night one. When I removed my vote from him, I asked him who he healed on night 2 and why. First off, he didn't answer right away (not sure how long it was, but it was a little crazy) When He replied "Reed healed for the same reasons" it just didn't ring true to me.

I took a guess that he might have been the convert and the OC ws on the suggested kill list and he protected the OC.

When you compare the two lists (provided by you and Tully) only Bareathon is still alive. If Bolton told the truth about being H-P it is possible that Baraethon is the OC.

oh, and my vote on Tully isn't serious. I was just frustrated wtih another innocent kill.

[Magic Mirror]

Well, Bolton was going to protect his partner no matter what.

true, I guess. :cry:

[House Reed]

When you compare the two lists (provided by you and Tully) only Bareathon is still alive. If Bolton told the truth about being H-P it is possible that Baraethon is the OC.

Okay, I see now.

[Magic Mirror]

I have to tell you Reed, that I am at a complete loss in this game.

If I had to go on gut alone I would say Frey....not sure about the other one. Looking for clues doesn't seem to be a huge help.

If we don't get a cultist today, I think we lose.

I don't want that to happen. I suggest a full role reveal. I know, sounds crazy, but I think it might work.

[House Reed]

Case against Tyrell.

Under the radar

This point really applies to all of my OC suspects. He has a few posts like this one, which are somewhat suspicious (and annoying).

Yeah, I apologize profusely for my lack of participation right now. I should have more time to post tonight and tomorrow (real time, not mafia time). I'm around for the time being but I'll be heading out in a little while and probably won't be back for a good chunk of the day.

I'll post on who I suspect after I've done a bit of a read through.

Basically, it's the CB profile. We've talked about it a lot already.

Day 2

This day 2 post certainly doesn't look good for him -

I'm thinking a lot of the case against Bolton has much to do with squirrels; While I agree that they have a higher than normal chance of being a converted due to their day 1 performance, the same can be said of several people. I much prefer the likelihood of hitting an evil from the CB/possible cult leader lists.

And this one is just as bad -

I think the current case on Bolton is more of a witch hunt than anything else; What happens if they turn up innocent? Do we look for the next most probable convert and start again with them? Seems like a good way to lose our most contributive players. Don't get me wrong, I'll probably add my vote for them if it ends the day, but why are we looking for possible converts instead of the original cult member?

In terms of who I suspect for that role; The middle-level posters seem like a good place to start - Lannister, Blackwood, Dayne, Arryn - they all appear to be contributing to the game but none of them have given me any impression of innocence either.

Then he votes for Lannister and says his preference is Lannister, Arryn, then Bolton -

I've got to say this back-and-forth between Bolton and Tully is getting rather annoying; It's gotten to the point where I'm not bothering to read either argument anymore.

I'm going for now. I'd much prefer a Lannister lynch over Arryn and an Arryn lynch over Bolton though I'm getting kind of anxious for the day to end. When was the last vote count/time update?

At a certain point on day 2, he finally does go for a Bolton lynch -

I'm ready to lynch Bolton just so we can get on with the fricking game. If he does turn up innocent though the first place I'm going to look is in the Tully/Reed camp.

It doesn't look like he suspects him much...he just wants to move on with the game, and stop the fighting. What's interesting is that this was the vote count at the time of his vote -

9 votes are needed for a conviction or 8 to go to night.

5 votes for Arryn (Bolton, Westerling, Lannister, Dayne, Swann)

3 votes for Bolton (Stark, Manderly, Reed)

2 votes for Blackwood (Frey, Arryn)

1 vote for Manderly (Tully)

1 vote for Tully (Martell)

1 vote for Lannister (Tyrell)

3 players have not voted: Baratheon, Blackwood, Crakehall.

He could have been the 6th vote on Arryn, but instead he decides to be #4 on Bolton. Could be a point in his favor.

Of course, later he is willing to compromise -

As long as we're looking for changes in behaviour, I gotta' say the biggest change that sticks out at me is Martell. Yesterday they were quite active and today they seem rather reserved.

Anyway, I'd be willing to change my vote back to Swann or Lannister. I'm not willing to vote Arryn today.

And he does eventually switch back to Lannister -

I've already stated that Lannister is my preferred lynch for today. I think we need to start consolidating or we're going to be SOL when it comes to a lynch today. Again, I'm willing to change my vote if need be but right now I think we're rather directionless... shape up people

Day 3

He wants us to look for OC/FM candidates. Wants us to look away from Bolton -

I still don't like the idea of ignoring players who fit into multiple categories of suspicion in favour of looking for the convert - I'd much rather pin down the OC or, failing that, nail a FM. With that in mind I'd say my top suspects right now are Swann, Dayne and - though I hate to say it - Arryn. Westerling seems to be scooting by without saying much of anything - I virtually have no read on them whatsoever.

I think Bolton did a great job of distracting us all of yesterday from getting anything accomplished; I'm not sure of the nefarious intent there, but I hope at the very least we'll take a look at some of the people who've remained out of the limelight thus far.

While making a case against Swann, however, he does begin to question himself -

One thing I did notice while going through his posts is that he's also voiced that he favours going after the OC/CB lists. I got to admit this, coupled with the fact that Manderly was last nights target has me suspecting that I need to reevaluate what's going on in this game.

And he lists Bolton among the vocal players he is suspicious of. Hard to tell if its genuine or distancing -

For one thing it makes me a little more suspicious that there could be FM/cultists among the people who up to this point I've mainly presumed innocent. By that, I don't just mean converts. If I were to pick from the group of 'active' players who are more likely to be evil than the others I'd have to say Tully, Frey and Bolton.

But then he repeats his desire to try to lynch the OC/FM suspects. At the same time, he does admit that he thinks a convert will be found among the vocal players, and he again lists Bolton among his top convert suspects -

I've read the arguments and I'm still not convinced that it's better to go for a suspected convert over someone I just find generally suspicious. This was my position yesterday and it hasn't really changed; Right now I have much more faith in Swann turning up guilty than any of the other names being considered for a lynch today.

That being said, if we don't hit a cultist soon we might as well cede victory to them - and yes, I do think a convert is more likely to be found amongst the active group of posters than the CB bunch. In terms of who I suspect, Tully, Bolton and Martell would rank the highest. Frey I haven't made my mind up about and you and Baratheon come off as innocent to me.

I voted Bolton yesterday mainly out of frustration. The banter between you, he and Tully is long enough to fill up an entire game in itself and it's not a hell of a lot of fun to read through. I got to admit you could have made some good points in favour of him being the convert, but admittedly I just started skimming through it after a while. If you want to convince me he's more suspicious than Martell or Tully you've got to rein in your case a little bit.

He is willing to switch to Bolton if necessary. But, again, it could be distancing -

With that I'm heading out. I still rank Swann as my top suspect, but it looks like I'm in the minority who believe that we should actually lynch guilty looking players. I'd consider changing my vote to Bolton or Martell today.

Once again, doesn't want to go after the converts -

I really think all this focus on finding the convert is just serving as a major distraction and it will likely cost us the game in the end. I mean, brokering deals with the FM? You do realize we're trying to eliminate them as well right? And they're certainly trying to eliminate us.

Anyway, I have no intent of lynching Baratheon today based on their behaviour as I don't find it suspicious. If anything I think they've been the most consistent 'active' player in the game next to maybe Reed.

In spite of previous claims that he'd vote for Bolton, he votes for Dayne instead -

At this point my vote on Swann is useless. I really don't like the idea of lynching Baratheon and I still rather dislike the option of Bolton. Dayne it is.

He leaves his vote on Dayne the rest of the day. He never votes for Bolton (or Baratheon).

And then we have his 'joke' post -

Bolton my child what have they done to you? :cry:

Do not fear. I've used the powers of the most sacred numbers to determine a host most suited to lead the DHARMA INITIATIVE in these most turbulent times. Let your sacrifice not be in vein!

Vive la Hanso! Death to all who oppose us!

Which we have already talked about.

Summary

1) Fits the CB profile.

2) Would rather go after the OC/FM suspects than the convert.

3) Deflects attention from Bolton on day 2 and day 3.

4) Says he will consider voting Bolton on day 3, but never does it.

The only point in his favor is that he chose to vote for Bolton over Arryn on day 2. Arryn was at 5 votes and Bolton was at 3. He could have pushed the Arryn lynch fairly close to a lynch, but instead he helped make Bolton a more viable lynch option.

[House Frey]

Right. But I think Tully is arguing that Bolton was the OC. Meaning that Baratheon would once again be the top night 1 convert suspect.

I was not going off Tully's assumptions, but Blackwood's. The Tully thing in my post was a tangent. Blackwood thought that Bolton was a convert - as he would be if he were H/D. Bolton and Bara were suspected for the same reasons (likely convert) so by that logic, Bolton coming up cult clears Bara.

[House Reed]

I have to tell you Reed, that I am at a complete loss in this game.

If I had to go on gut alone I would say Frey....not sure about the other one. Looking for clues doesn't seem to be a huge help.

If we don't get a cultist today, I think we lose.

I don't want that to happen. I suggest a full role reveal. I know, sounds crazy, but I think it might work.

If we don't get a cultist today, and the FM don't get one tonight, then yeah - we would be in trouble. It would be 3 cultists out of 8 players tomorrow. We wouldn't be completely dead, but we'd be in a desperate situation.

I've just posted my case against Tyrell. I've got one coming against Swann. To be honest, they both look pretty suspicious.

[House Reed]

My current suspect lists.

Original Cultist

Tier 1 - Tyrell, Swann

Tier 2 - Blackwood, Stark

Tier 3 - Frey, Dayne

Night 3 Convert

Tier 1 - Frey, Stark

Tier 2 - Swann, Blackwood, Tyrell, Arryn

FM

Tier 1 - Swann, Blackwood, Tyrell, Dayne

Tier 2 - Stark

Tier 3 - Frey, Arryn

[House Frey]

Where is Westerling in those tiers?

[House Reed]

Case against Swann.

Distancing from Bolton before the conversion

Okay, this might be a bit of a stretch. But it's possible that Swann was the OC, and that he partially based his conversion choice on the fact that he had already established some distance between himself and Bolton on day 1 -

I don't like this one bit. Are you willing to let a killer live because you're not happy with the other voters? Why? Scared of being tarnished by being in a lynch with them? Isn't the idea to increase team innocent's chances of winning, not necisarily to be the chump left alive at the end? If you beleive your case on someone is the best case at the present time, removing the vote because you don't like fellow voters is beyond stupid. It's downright wrong.

Under the radar

This is a good time to mention that Swann has been way under the radar. Which is still what I personally expect from the OC. Why is this a good time to mention that? Because the above quote is pretty much his only substantial day 1 post, aside from his vote against Dayne. Yeah....like I said, he's way under the radar.

Would rather have the cult win than the FM

I understand what he's trying to say here, but I completely disagree with it. What kind of innocent argues that he'd be okay being converted and winning with the cult?

Also, what's more important. Going after killers or cultists?

From a purely selfish viewpoint, an innocent could feel that the killers winning is always bad, while the cultists may be okay, as they may recruit them in the meantime. From a purely team innocent perspective though, it's better to cut the cult off before it gets a chance to grow...

Its almost as if he is subtly trying to convince the group that going after the cult isn't such a great idea....better to get rid of the FM, and then try for the cult. Because at least if you lose to the cult, you get to 'win' as a part of their team.

When he's called on it, he backtracks a bit, but he's still arguing to lynch one of his FM suspects, and he's saying it's better to lynch a top FM suspect than go after the cult -

i think Dayne is a dirty killer. I'm not sure if we should go after the cult or the killers. We're probably best going after the cult, but i'd rather get a likely killer than a possible cultist.

So, my basic feelings:

Dayne = killer.

Probably cultist > probable killer for lynch.

Probable killer>possible cultist for lynch.

And he's still saying stuff like this -

Personally, I'd rather win as an innocent than win as a cult recruit, but i'd rather win as a cult recruit than lose.

As I'm reading his posts, I can't help but get the bad feeling that he's trying to convince us that the cult is not so bad. He's laying the groundwork for us to feel better about the cult than the FM, when the reality is that they are both enemies and the cult are an even bigger threat than the FM. Again, why would an innocent player push such a pro-cult opinion?

He later acts as if he's switching his focus to the cult -

Okay, having caught up with what i missed last night, I would probably have to agree that the cult should be #1 priority here. Ideally though, I'd like to vote for someone who could be cult OR killer. doubles our chances.

I don't mind the case on Arryn, but i can't say i'm fully sold on it yet. We still have a lot of time to go today, and I guess i'll wait until a few more hours pass before deciding where to vote.

But the reality is, he still wants to focus on the suspects who could be either OC or FM. And he's pushing us away from the suspect list that includes Bolton. This could definitely be a subtle defense of Bolton.

Defense of Bolton

Okay, so his subtle defense of Bolton starts in the last quote I listed. It gets more bold after that -

Wow, i missed a lot. Teach me for going to work...

As for what's happened today, I think i agree that the best bet is to hedge our bets and aim for someone who could be OC or Killer. At the moment, I'm going to say "Baah" and go along with Arryn as my top choice, with Lannister being second.

Want something more controversial? I like Bolton. I trust him. I don't, however, like Tully. Sure he might be Mr. Innocent as far as most people are concerned, but given the chance, i'd happily see him lynched, if only for the CF result. Not only do we have his twin suddenly abandoning him with a timely distance, but also the attack on Bolton, which i think is total crap.

So first he wasn't sure about the case against Arryn (as shown in a prior quote), and now Arryn is his top choice? Here's the vote count at the time of his vote -

9 votes are needed for a conviction or 8 to go to night.

4 votes for Arryn (Bolton, Westerling, Lannister, Dayne)

3 votes for Bolton (Stark, Manderly, Reed)

2 votes for Manderly (Tully, Baratheon)

2 votes for Blackwood (Frey, Arryn)

1 vote for Tully (Martell)

1 vote for Lannister (Tyrell)

1 vote for Dayne (Swann)

3 players have not voted: Blackwood, Crakehall.

He pushes the count to 5 for Arryn and 3 for Bolton. It's a fairly strong point against him.

On day 3, he shows up again and once more pushes for a Dayne lynch -

I am going to make it three days in a row and vote Dayne again today.

Sorry I can't add more than that. My thoughts on the day are "What the fuck?"

I still think we're running in circles, WIFOMing left right and center and going about this all the wrong way. If Dayne can't go, I'd like to test either the Bolton - Baratheon (preferably with bara swinging) or the Tully - Reed (preferably with Tully swinging) link, with the latter being my preference over the former.

And if we won't agree on Dayne, he'd like to go with one of the more aggressive players. Apparently, he preferred lynching them in this order - Tully, Reed, Baratheon, Bolton. Obviously suspicious that Bolton is last on the list. Also suspicious that he's gone from wanting to lynch OC/FM suspects to now getting rid of one of the people attacking Bolton (Tully or Reed) if he can't get Dayne lynched.

Near the end of the day, he still doesn't want to lynch Bolton. This is when Dayne is still one of the top options, and he is not giving up on him.

Reed, I'm personally willing to lynch anyone if it's that or go to night lynchless. However, I have to say I'd rather not lynch Bolton at the moment.

My first choice is Dayne, but I'm willing to lynch Baratheon if Dayne becomes unviable.

Martell i'm not sure about. I wouldn't join a lynch unless it's that or the night, but then again i wouldn't necisarily oppose it. I guess i don't have strong enough feelings either way on him.

Tries to set up Baratheon as a possible Bolton partner, just in case Bolton is lynched -

Best friends usually die together. Creating a strong link with a player your team fears is a viable strategy. If they die you may be "cleared", and if you die they may take the heat.

So he's just finished talking about how an evil player may spend a lot of time defending his partner. And yet he follows that up by ironically saying to Baratheon -

I personally beleive Bolton is innocent. I'm not so sure about you.

I still vastly prefer a Dayne vote though.

Could he have been projecting his own strategy onto Baratheon?

He eventually votes for Baratheon over Bolton -

Baratheon

I said I wanted to explore the Bolton - Baratheon relationship, with Bara being the preferred lynch (as i still have good vibes on Bolton), so here I am doing so.

I still think Dayne has to hang eventually. He's dodging far too many bullets here...

And after Bolton is lynched, but before he comes up guilty, he once again pushes the Bolton/Baratheon partnership idea -

why are we so sure him and bolton aren't both cult?

The fact you're saying that a Bolton lynch and guilty = Baratheon is innocent shows us that they could well have coreographed this. WIFOMing here of course, but the whole "is he now innocent, guilty or between" is one big WIFOM.

Summary

1) May have converted Bolton on night 1 because he felt he had established a bit of distance between the 2 of them on day 1.

2) He is under the radar, which I still expect from the OC.

3) He made a bunch of posts in which he suggested that the innocents should prefer a cult victory over a FM victory.

4) Starts off with a subtle defense of Bolton. Pushes us toward the OC/FM suspects.

5) Votes Arryn instead of Bolton on day 2. Places Arryn at 5 votes, while Bolton is only at 3.

6) Defense of Bolton grows in strength near the end of day 2 and on day 3.

7) Once it looks like Bolton is really in trouble, he directly states that an evil player could very easily defend his partner (in the hope that we'll all think its too obvious)...and then pushes us toward suspecting Baratheon. Completely ignores that the same thing could be said of himself.

Also, I should point out that Bolton listed Swann as #4 on his suspect list. Probably the most likely place for him to put a partner. Not too high, so its not likely he'll have to vote for him. But also still on his suspect list, so he's able to create a bit of distance.

After writing this up, I'm definitely suspicious of Swann. To be honest, he and Tyrell both look pretty awful right now.

[House Reed]

Where is Westerling in those tiers?

Did you miss the part where Westerling died and came up innocent?

[House Frey]

Um ... apparently I did. How the hell did I miss that?

[Magic Mirror]

nevermind...too slow

[House Frey]

Freakin' hell. Seriously, how did I miss that?

Well, I think that ... oooh! Butterfly!

*wanders off after pretty shiny thing*

OK, I'll need time to look at your cases and right now I am in 'keep up and make quick post mode' I will have time in the next few hours I hope.

[House Reed]

Okay, so apparently, we are at the point in the game where I'll talk to myself for a while. Fun.

Tyrell and Swann are both suspicious as hell, and I'd lynch either one of them. That said, I think there's one difference between them.

When Arryn was at 4 votes and Bolton was at 3 votes, Swann voted for Arryn.

When Arryn was at 5 votes and Bolton was at 3 votes, Tyrell voted for Bolton.

That makes me slightly more suspicious of Swann.

Now on to the really fun part. Do we lynch one of them, or do we go for one of Frey or Stark (night 3 convert suspects)?

If I was OC, I would have converted Frey on night 3. So I'm obviously worried about him right now. He was the most logical choice for conversion. At the same time, I'm starting to get a very bad feeling about Stark. He makes sense as a convert, and he also has a small chance of being the OC. He's been skating by this whole game.

I'd like for everybody to rank the 4 players listed above (Swann, Tyrell, Frey, and Stark). Who are you most willing to lynch? If you want, throw in Blackwood too, since I know Tully is going to come back and say he is the most suspicious.

[Magic Mirror]

Swann

Frey

Tyrell

Stark

[House Ashford]

I'd like for everybody to rank the 4 players listed above (Swann, Tyrell, Frey, and Stark). Who are you most willing to lynch? If you want, throw in Blackwood too, since I know Tully is going to come back and say he is the most suspicious.

Frey

Swann/Stark/Blackwood

Tyrell