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House Clegane

Mafia Mini 49.5

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1304798' date='Apr 7 2008, 16.03']We know that masonity is CI, and likely paranoid.[/quote]

Why do you say he's likely to be paranoid?

[quote]With the game continuing after my lynch, you would be down to 3 players. One of Week and mexal would survive to the last 3 players, and the innocent among those two would vote with the other survivor to kill the FM.[/quote]

I don't follow you here. If we lynch you and you are innocent, Masonity is probably going to die tonight (since he is CI). The next day, all 3 of those of us remaining would be suspects (though that could change based on investigation results). You seem to be saying we'd know who the FM was at that point....what makes you think that?

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1304805' date='Apr 7 2008, 22.07']just continuing on from my last post.

from my POV, one of WJ, Week, Mexal is guilty, so those three would survive to the endgame.

Can the two innocents among them use their night 2 investigation to identify the killer?[/quote]


Why won't you make it to end game?

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1304806' date='Apr 7 2008, 15.07']Why do you say he's likely to be paranoid?



I don't follow you here. If we lynch you and you are innocent, Masonity is probably going to die tonight (since he is CI). The next day, all 3 of those of us remaining would be suspects (though that could change based on investigation results). You seem to be saying we'd know who the FM was at that point....what makes you think that?[/quote]

I'm still thinking it through. the game was going a little fast there for a bit.

Week suggested Masonity was likely paranoid. I haven't worked that part out yet.

Masonity would definitely be the NK. No use leaving a CI in this game.

With my confirmed innocence, we would know that Masonity and I are paranoid and one of either insane investigating innocent, or true finder. That doesn't eliminate any of the remaining 3 players. But, I am wondering if we direct WJ, Mexal, and Week to perform specific investigations, would that reveal the killer? or at least identify one additional CI? In either case, the unconfirmed innocent would just vote with the new CI to kill the FM.

I haven't worked all that out yet, but it is my working theory for the moment.

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If WJ is guilty

Mexal = Niave or true
lcontnw = paranoid or true
Masonity = paranoid or insane
week = niave or insane
2 possible insanes, niaves, paranoids and trues. Nothing really given here.




If Mexal is guilty

WJ = Niave or Insane
Masonity = Paranoid or true
lcontnw = insane or Paranoid
week= true or niave

again, 2 possible of each.



If LCOTNW is guilty
mexal = niave or insane
WJ= true or niave
week = true or niave
Masonity = insane or paranoid
again, 2 bloody possibilies for each


If Week is guilty
lcontnw = paranoid or insane
masonity = insane or paranoid
mexal = true or niave
wj= true or niave

Again! Damn. Why did i bother?

I guess when someone else is eliminated, or some results prove certain people aren't niave or paranoid, you'll be able to use this nice list to infer that someone may be innocent or guilty? :-p

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Pebble that Hides will be my most excellent side kick, as she (?) works night shift.

Anyone want spoiler access, PM me. However, I would encourage the unspoiled forum, as it's far more fun to try to solve it yourself, in stead of getting it handed to you ;) Or at least, so I have been told. Either way, PM me, and I'll hopefully figure out how to do it.

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I'm struggling to work out who should investigate who for optimal results... I know as CI it's probably my job to make any decisions that would have to be made by an innocent, but...

What does everyone think about everyone investigating one person, with the person investigated looking at WJ? That way we have three currently live players results on both WJ and whoever we investigate.

I'd suggest Week as the "victim" of the mass investigation.

That way, excluding me as dead, we'd have three readings on week, three readings on WJ, one on Mexal and one on LCONTNW. No-one's completely been overlooked.

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I must take a break for a bit. I should be able to check in periodically over the next few hours.

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[quote name='House Grandison' post='1304852' date='Apr 7 2008, 22.35']Pebble that Hides will be my most excellent side kick, as she (?) works night shift.

Anyone want spoiler access, PM me. However, I would encourage the unspoiled forum, as it's far more fun to try to solve it yourself, in stead of getting it handed to you ;) Or at least, so I have been told. Either way, PM me, and I'll hopefully figure out how to do it.[/quote]


When we die, rather than spoiling us, why not move us into the unspoiled instead of straight into the spoiled this game? We can request spoiled, but unless we do so, we're safe in unspoiled for once. After all, we've all (bar the killer) been up front about our roles and investigations, and when the killer dies, everyone's spoiled:-p

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I'd also perhaps like to PI Week?

If he'd came in as killer, placing the last "reveal", why would he place it somewhere that would then CI someone? WIFOM, sure, but it's a bit of a risk when there was really no need to take one.

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[quote name='Masonity' post='1304895' date='Apr 7 2008, 17.07']I'd also perhaps like to PI Week?

If he'd came in as killer, placing the last "reveal", why would he place it somewhere that would then CI someone? WIFOM, sure, but it's a bit of a risk when there was really no need to take one.[/quote]

Have you analyzed what would have happened if he had called somebody guilty? You need to do that before you claim that declaring me innocent was a poor action for him to take (I haven't done it...just wondering if you have).

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1304905' date='Apr 7 2008, 23.12']Have you analyzed what would have happened if he had called somebody guilty? You need to do that before you claim that declaring me innocent was a poor action for him to take (I haven't done it...just wondering if you have).[/quote]

He had plenty of time to look at the choices, seeing as he was "missing" from the thread. He could have looked through and found either someone to call guilty or someone to call innocent that wouldn't leave a CI i'm sure?

I'll have a look. You're right though. If instead it turns out he had to make SOMEONE CI, then it'd make best sense for him to make it me, as I'd probably be perceived as the lesser threat in the thread?

Or would he instead set a strong player to CI, take the day 1 bashing, but remove them from play?

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Got this wrong. Not sure where, but I wove myself into knots. See below.

If you are one of the two people claiming Innocent with 3 guiltys, and you are lying, you will have been found innocent by the insane. Therefore if it's I2:3G and you aren't called innocent, you are innocent.

If you are one of two people claiming guilty and you are lying, you'll be found innocent by the insane. However, niave could also find you innocent. Therefore, if it's I3:2G and you aren't investigated, you are innocent.

List and analysis coming.

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Again, slightly wrong, so see above. I set up exactly how people are innocent in a 2:3 or 3:2. Week came in at 2:2, and would have known this. So, if guilty and lying, these were his choices and the results:

possible results:

Week DOES call WJ innocent:
2 guilty 3 innocent.
Claimed guilty and not investigated: Masonity


If week calls WJ guilty

3 guilty, 2 innocent.
Claimed Innocent and not called Innocent: WJ


If week calls Mexal guilty

3 guilty, 2 innocent.
Claimed Innocent and not called Innocent: WJ



If week calls Mexal innocent

3 innocents, 2 guiltys.
Claimed guilty and not investigated: Masonity



if week calls masonity innocent

3 innocents, 2 guiltys.
Claimed guilty and not investigated: None



if week calls masonity guilty

3 guiltys, 2 innocents.
Claimed Innocent and not called Innocent: WJ



if week calls Lcotnw innocent

3 innocents, 2 guiltys.
Claimed guilty and not investigated: Masonity



if week calls lcotnw guilty

3 guiltys, 2 innocents.
Claimed Innocent and not called Innocent: WJ



So as far as I can work out, he has three choices. He could either CI WJ, CI me, or have no CIs.

If he didn't spot the no CI option, he may have thought a CI WJ was too dangerous, even on Day 1, and preferred a weaker oponent.

However, If he had spotted the "masonity: Innocent" reveal, he'd have chosen that. Alternatively, If he thoguth he had to CI either me or WJ, i think it would have been WJ. Day 1 WJ in a game like this doesn't have his full teeth yet, as there isn't enough to go on. Far better to get rid of him by CIing him than to keep him along for the ride, but have a weaker CI on day 1.


So, I'm PIing Week.

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[quote name='House Grandison' post='1304991' date='Apr 7 2008, 23.59']You are not supposed to edit posts for any reason, except fixing typos or code or the like.[/quote]

Gah. I didn't realise that. Sorry.

I won't do it again.

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[quote name='House Grandison' post='1304991' date='Apr 7 2008, 17.59']You are not supposed to edit posts for any reason, except fixing typos or code or the like.[/quote]

Since when?

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[quote name='Masonity' post='1304996' date='Apr 8 2008, 00.01']Gah. I didn't realise that. Sorry.

I won't do it again.[/quote]

Hold on, are you sure that's a rule here?

I just checked, and according to the general rule set here (lifted from the current full game running) we're not supposed to edit in or out any votes. Beyond that, the only mentions of editing is that we're to make any edits mods request? I know a lot of boards have a no edit policy, but i was sure we didn't here. :-p

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p.s. everyone, I'll be in bed in the next half hour or so, and then after a breif visit, at work tomorrow daytime. Any chance of not pulling the trigger and letting the day run to around 20 hours or so, so i have a chance to respond before that evil Killer strangles me in my sleep?

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[quote name='Masonity' post='1305004' date='Apr 7 2008, 18.06']Hold on, are you sure that's a rule here?

I just checked, and according to the general rule set here (lifted from the current full game running) we're not supposed to edit in or out any votes. Beyond that, the only mentions of editing is that we're to make any edits mods request? I know a lot of boards have a no edit policy, but i was sure we didn't here. :-p[/quote]

We don't.

Ok, I'm going to eat dinner now. When I get back, I'll try to give this some thought.

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