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House Clegane

Mafia Mini 49.5

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Unless we can verify that we can nail the FM with a lynch today and a combination of investigations. then I think our better option is to go to night twice.

Either way, we need to settle on the investigations that are going to do the most good.

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To recap:

As CI, i'll make some suggestions. You can ignore them, or you can follow them. It's up to you, but as the only person you KNOW is looking out for Team Innocent, you may as well listen.

I suggest that Week is PI. However, i also suggest you all investigate him tonight. Week, WJ was origionally my choice for the "investigated" but clearly that makes no sense. Therefore, investigate Mexal please?

Finally, i suggest you let me have one final read tomorrow afternoon/evening before pulling the trigger and going to night after approximately 21 hours of day 1 have passed. I personally prefer the single lynch after 2 more nights of investigating.

If you all feel a lynch is essential, I think it'd be best if it was out of WJ, Mexal and LCOTNW, with the survivors checking week, week checking mexal if he lives, LCOTNW if he doesn't (obviously).

edit: Of course, if anyone figures a set of investigations that is certain to bring about a confirmed killer, we'll use that instead of my idea :-p

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Hmm. I was pretty sure there was such a rule. Besides, the whole concept of being able to add content after you click 'submit' seems wrong. Posts should be final. Oh well, moving on...

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[quote name='House Grandison' post='1305025' date='Apr 8 2008, 00.20']Hmm. I was pretty sure there was such a rule. Besides, the whole concept of being able to add content after you click 'submit' seems wrong. Posts should be final. Oh well, moving on...[/quote]
A discussion for the spoiler forum or unspoiled forum if we get a few spectators i guess? But on the positive side for edits, not only are they handy for a CI to get rid of a silly brainfart when his logic flies in the air and he gets twisted up like i did, but it also adds a layer of strategy...
If you make a mistake, do you edit it out? If you're caught editing it out, does that make you more guilty than the statement itself would have? why didn't they edit that obvious slip up out? i wonder what it said before that edit?

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[quote name='Masonity' post='1305022' date='Apr 7 2008, 17.18']edit: Of course, if anyone figures a set of investigations that is certain to bring about a confirmed killer, we'll use that instead of my idea :-p[/quote]

I'm trying to go through the possibilities, but there are a ton of them. Getting bogged down in all of the different scenarios. And I haven't come up with anything to solve the game yet.

Heading home from work now. Will post more later.

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If masonity's analysis of Week holds up, and we agree that week is VPI, then I again suggest that we lynch me tonight. Once I am CI, that leaves WJ, Week and Mexal as possible FM, and with Week being VPI, there must be a way to organize the investigations of WJ and Mexal to establish guilt or innocence for one of them. There are too many combinations for me to figure out without knowing one more piece of information. Week as VPI could be it. I am going to attempt to follow masonity's logic in reaching the Week conclusion, but I am ill, and I have some other demands on my attention tonight, so it might be beyond me.

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1305034' date='Apr 8 2008, 00.26']If masonity's analysis of Week holds up, and we agree that week is VPI, then I again suggest that we lynch me tonight. Once I am CI, that leaves WJ, Week and Mexal as possible FM, and with Week being VPI, there must be a way to organize the investigations of WJ and Mexal to establish guilt or innocence for one of them. There are too many combinations for me to figure out without knowing one more piece of information. Week as VPI could be it. I am going to attempt to follow masonity's logic in reaching the Week conclusion, but I am ill, and I have some other demands on my attention tonight, so it might be beyond me.[/quote]


I'm PIing Week, not VPIing him. Your tactic is far too risky for my liking.

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I have no idea. There are far too many variables at this stage and not enough constants.

I will say this though. From the way the game has played out and the actions of the players, I'm looking at WJ as evil. Masonity makes a good point on Week and is enough to give him PI for now. I think that LC is sincere in his desire to get lynched if it's the best option for all. I couldn't see a guilty LC pulling that. I know I'm not guilty so that leaves WJ as the odd man out. That's just my feelings based on the actions of others thus far.

The problem is, I don't know at this stage if lynching WJ is the best move because I can't work out a way to narrow down what people are based on the investigations of me, LC and Week due to the easy nature of lying. So it might be best to go to night twice and try to devise some plan but for now, my mind is drawing a blank on how best to do it.

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[quote name='Mexal' post='1305093' date='Apr 7 2008, 18.18']I have no idea. There are far too many variables at this stage and not enough constants.

I will say this though. From the way the game has played out and the actions of the players, I'm looking at WJ as evil. Masonity makes a good point on Week and is enough to give him PI for now. I think that LC is sincere in his desire to get lynched if it's the best option for all. I couldn't see a guilty LC pulling that. I know I'm not guilty so that leaves WJ as the odd man out. That's just my feelings based on the actions of others thus far.

The problem is, I don't know at this stage if lynching WJ is the best move because I can't work out a way to narrow down what people are based on the investigations of me, LC and Week due to the easy nature of lying. So it might be best to go to night twice and try to devise some plan but for now, my mind is drawing a blank on how best to do it.[/quote]

I'm innocent.

I don't count Week as PI yet. To make him PI, you have to assume that he would have gone through all of that analysis as a FM. I'm not currently willing to make that assumption.

I don't agree with your assessment of LC. I think he would possibly do that as a FM. Can't really say what he'd do, to be honest, because we've never seen him be evil before. Its alarming that you'd make that assumption so quickly.

And I certainly still suspect you. Probably about the same amount as I suspect LC. Week is 3rd (but still not PI).

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Ok, back from softball and dinner...unfortunately the other team didn't show up, but still that's a forfeit and a win is a win. Back to the game...

[quote name='Mexal' post='1305093' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.18']I have no idea. There are far too many variables at this stage and not enough constants.[/quote]
Agreed, this is brutal to go through.

[quote name='Mexal' post='1305093' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.18']I will say this though. From the way the game has played out and the actions of the players, I'm looking at WJ as evil. Masonity makes a good point on Week and is enough to give him PI for now. I think that LC is sincere in his desire to get lynched if it's the best option for all. I couldn't see a guilty LC pulling that. I know I'm not guilty so that leaves WJ as the odd man out. That's just my feelings based on the actions of others thus far.[/quote]
You know, I was going to question you on PIing LC but you may be right. He also made a similar argument when he was innocent in 48.5, so I can see him as a MLTBITG. Or more likely to be innocent than guilty. :P

[quote name='Mexal' post='1305093' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.18']The problem is, I don't know at this stage if lynching WJ is the best move because I can't work out a way to narrow down what people are based on the investigations of me, LC and Week due to the easy nature of lying. So it might be best to go to night twice and try to devise some plan but for now, my mind is drawing a blank on how best to do it.[/quote]
I am thinking now that going to night twice is the best idea as well, although I'll try and think of scenarios where lynching might be better.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305113' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.32']I don't count Week as PI yet. To make him PI, you have to assume that he would have gone through all of that analysis as a FM. I'm not currently willing to make that assumption.[/quote]
You [i]wound [/i]me. :cry:

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[quote name='Masonity' post='1305047' date='Apr 7 2008, 18.32']I'm PIing Week, not VPIing him. Your tactic is far too risky for my liking.[/quote]

I am only suggesting it if it produces the information we need, in combination with investigations by the others. So, it is not meant to be a high-risk strategy. If it is high risk, then we shold do subsequent investigations.

Either way, we should map out the investigations that each should do before we go to night.

I have also been trying to look at what combinations of lynching WJ, Mexal, and Week provide in combination with investigations. I don't have anything yet.

Week, can you explain why you thought Masonity might be paranoid? Was that just intuitive, or was there something that we can look at?

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305113' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.32']I'm innocent.

I don't count Week as PI yet. To make him PI, you have to assume that he would have gone through all of that analysis as a FM. I'm not currently willing to make that assumption.

I don't agree with your assessment of LC. I think he would possibly do that as a FM. Can't really say what he'd do, to be honest, because we've never seen him be evil before. Its alarming that you'd make that assumption so quickly.

And I certainly still suspect you. Probably about the same amount as I suspect LC. Week is 3rd (but still not PI).[/quote]

Well, I don't see why he wouldn't go through the analysis when he went through the analysis on thread to make Masonity a CI. That would be kind of stupid of him to throw out something without thinking about it then work it out on thread.

As for LC, you're right, we haven't seen him as an evil. But he's taking a major risk of losing the game on day 1 by offering to get lynched. It's possible that it could be some ploy but to me, it seems sincere.

And as I said at the bottom, even though my thoughts have you as evil, I have nothing to back it up other than what I've said which is why I'm leaning toward 2 nights.

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1305133' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.40']Week, can you explain why you thought Masonity might be paranoid? Was that just intuitive, or was there something that we can look at?[/quote]
I don't remember saying he was more likely to be paranoid, the two of you are equally likely to be paranoid.

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Alright, I'm going to break this down a little bit further. I really didn't want to do the work for the FM, but I think its necessary to take it this far.

One of Mason/LC has to be Paranoid. The other one has to be one of the following - True, Insane, or FM.

First, lets check to see if either can be the True Finder.

If LC = True, then WJ = FM. In this scenario, we have the following breakdown -

[u]Scenario 1[/u]
Mason = Paranoid
LC = True
Mexal = Naive
WJ = FM
Week = Insane

If Mason = True, then Mexal = FM. We'd have this -

[u]Scenario 2[/u]
Mason = True
LC = Paranoid
Mexal = FM
WJ = Insane
Week = Naive

I obviously know that Scenario 1 is wrong, but I'll leave it up there for now.

Moving on to the Insane possibilities. Its actually currently impossible to determine which of Mason/LC would be Paranoid and which would be Insane. So we'll just designate them as being either one. The important part then becomes....the rest of us have to be True, Naive, or FM. So lets try to figure out what happens if we assume each one of us is True.

If WJ = True, then Mexal is Innocent. Meaning he'd have to be Naive. Week would be FM.

[u]Scenario 3[/u]
Mason = Paranoid/Insane
LC = Paranoid/Insane
Mexal = Naive
WJ = True
Week = FM

If Week = True, then WJ is Innocent. Meaning he'd have to be Naive. Mexal would be FM.

[u]Scenario 4[/u]
Mason = Paranoid/Insane
LC = Paranoid/Insane
Mexal = FM
WJ = Naive
Week = True

If Mexal = True, then we don't know much about WJ or Week. One is Naive, the other is FM, but we don't know which is which.

[u]Scenario 5[/u]
Mason = Paranoid/Insane
LC = Paranoid/Insane
Mexal = True
WJ = Naive
Week = FM

[u]Scenario 6[/u]
Mason = Paranoid/Insane
LC = Paranoid/Insane
Mexal = True
WJ = FM
Week = Naive

Again, I can eliminate Scenario 6, but I know that you can't right now.

Okay, last we have the possibility that LC or Mason is a FM. Well, it can't be Mason, as we have all already figured out. So we'll just see what we get if LC is FM.

[u]Scenario 7[/u]
Mason = Paranoid
LC = FM
Mexal = Insane
WJ = True/Naive
Week = True/Naive

You might think that Mexal should be Insane/Naive in this scenario, but he can't be. Because one of Week/WJ has to be True, and the other has to be Naive. So its impossible for Mexal to be Naive, so he has to be Insane.

And thats pretty much it. Seven scenarios (though a few of them can be broken down further into parts (a) and (b), when they present Paranoid/Insane or True/Naive possibilities).

These are what I'm working off of, as I'm trying to figure out if there's any action that can give us an optimal chance for finding the FM without having to resort to a 50/50 or 33/33/33 guess at the endgame.

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[quote name='Weekapaug' post='1305125' date='Apr 7 2008, 18.37']You know, I was going to question you on PIing LC but you may be right. He also made a similar argument when he was innocent in 48.5, so I can see him as a MLTBITG. Or more likely to be innocent than guilty. :P

I am thinking now that going to night twice is the best idea as well, although I'll try and think of scenarios where lynching might be better.[/quote]

I don't think we need to rely on the subjective to figure this out. My approach in 48.5 was based on intuition, and an emotional appeal to build trust. We don't need that here. Besides, the very fact that I have employed the strategy before, and not that long ago, makes it just as likely that I would use it as a smokescreen to make you "feel" like I am innocent. In any event, I am pretty sure that we can figure this out without having to worry about judging subjective player actions.

That being said, I still haven't found a combination of a lynch and investigations that helps.

A couple of admittedly useless subjective thoughts:

From my POV, the FM is probably either WJ or Mexal. Since I have it down to 2 players, I could go with either strategy if the lynch strategy was to lynch these two players.

Week rolled out that initial analysis pretty fast, so it seems to me that masonity's notion and the chance that Week could have figured it out as an FM seem to jive.

Is WJ just being careful when he says not to accept the PI suggestions? Or is he trying to keep us from narrowing the pool?

Oh, and Week, I was referrind to post #29:

[quote]One of LCOTNW and Masonity are paranoid, leaning towards Masonity just because I think (logically) he has to be innocent.[/quote]

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I'm not sure what I was thinking then because that doesn't really jive. You could both be innocent..not sure why I thought him being innocent meant he was paranoid...

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1305171' date='Apr 7 2008, 19.01']From my POV, the FM is probably either WJ or Mexal. Since I have it down to 2 players, I could go with either strategy if the lynch strategy was to lynch these two players.[/quote]

Quite a nice strategy for you, if you're the FM.

[quote]Week rolled out that initial analysis pretty fast, so it seems to me that masonity's notion and the chance that Week could have figured it out as an FM seem to jive.

Is WJ just being careful when he says not to accept the PI suggestions? Or is he trying to keep us from narrowing the pool?[/quote]

The winning strategy for the FM the last time we played this game was to play the game exactly as he would if innocent. He was the first one to get 2 people declared PI. I fell for it in that game...that mistake led to one of the few losses I've ever had in any kind of mafia. Pretty much the only loss I've ever had that I blame on myself. I'm not falling for something similar again this time around.

Which isn't to say that I necessarily suspect Week. I rank him behind Mexal and you at the moment, and I have to admit that his gameplay thus far has had an impact in that ranking. I'm just saying, I'm not going to call him PI, and if I go through all of this analysis and it turns out that our best odds for victory come from lynching him today, then I'm going to push to lynch him today.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305183' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.09']The winning strategy for the FM the last time we played this game was to play the game exactly as he would if innocent. He was the first one to get 2 people declared PI. I fell for it in that game...that mistake led to one of the few losses I've ever had in any kind of mafia. Pretty much the only loss I've ever had that I blame on myself. I'm not falling for something similar again this time around.[/quote]

Are you taking a lesson from his book? :)

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