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House Clegane

Mafia Mini 49.5

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[quote name='Mexal' post='1305188' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.11']Are you taking a lesson from his book? :)[/quote]

If I was guilty, I would be using the same strategy as the one he used. But as things stand...obviously not. He was the one who did all of the initial analysis in the game. Similar to how Week has played this game. The opposite of what I've done, given that I've been reluctant to share information.

[quote name='Weekapaug' post='1305192' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.13']Who did that?[/quote]

Piper.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305201' date='Apr 7 2008, 21.18']Piper.[/quote]
He is a sly bitch.

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the best I can come up with are investigation strategies that depend on the FM not knowing them in advance. Maybe the best thing now is to just go ahead and get the next set of investigations?

I think that we should figure out how to do our reveals on day 2 at the same time, or in quick enough succession that it limits the FM's ability to react. Maybe figure out a time when we are all online?

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Alright, so should we plan our investigations for tonight or give the FM as little information as possible? My concern is if we set something up the FM is more likely to be able to abuse it.

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[quote name='Weekapaug' post='1305312' date='Apr 7 2008, 20.52']Alright, so should we plan our investigations for tonight or give the FM as little information as possible? My concern is if we set something up the FM is more likely to be able to abuse it.[/quote]

I'm still working on scenarios. I'll post something later tonight or tomorrow morning.

In the end, I think it will best for us to plan our investigations, regardless of whether or not we lynch today. The FM is going to be able to figure out an optimal scenario no matter what we do, and he'll be able to post it quickly, as long as he's willing to prepare ahead of time. So it doesn't make sense for us to give up our chance to take an optimal path (if there is one).

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Okay, I checked all the lynch options. None of them are very desirable, but if we do lynch, I think it should be Mexal. I'm not going to show my work or explain why, because I don't want to give the FM any information. I know that you probably don't want to just trust me on this, so its a bit of an impasse. Basically, if we lynch, my ideal situation is to lynch Mexal, have me tell everyone who to investigate, and then explain everything once we have the results tomorrow.

That said, I think I'm leaning toward not lynching. I've gone through 1 of those scenarios, and it seems preferable to me. Or maybe I'm just tired right now and all of the figures are starting to blur, and I'm missing something. :unsure: Either way, thats probably my vote.

Unfortunately, there's also a problem with that path. Specifically....I have 16 possible investigation scenarios to check. I've done one so far, and it took me about 30 minutes. I'm tired, I've got a busy day coming up at work tomorrow....I really don't know that I'll be able to check the other 15. So I'm not certain that I'm going to be able to come up with the ideal set of investigations for us. The first one I checked actually looked pretty solid, so I kind of want to cop out and just go with that. But that seems lazy.

Ugh...I guess I'll check one more right now, just to see how it goes.

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So far there have been No votes for anything.

You have approx 14 hours left. (game to end at 20:00 GMT by board clock)



Remeber if you want short nights that Provisional PM's are your friend. Especailly if your gonna disappear for several hours.

This mod is going to Bed. So your gonna be modless for a few hours.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305442' date='Apr 7 2008, 23.36']Okay, I checked all the lynch options. None of them are very desirable, but if we do lynch, I think it should be Mexal. I'm not going to show my work or explain why, because I don't want to give the FM any information. I know that you probably don't want to just trust me on this, so its a bit of an impasse. Basically, if we lynch, my ideal situation is to lynch Mexal, have me tell everyone who to investigate, and then explain everything once we have the results tomorrow.[/quote]

The only problem I have with lynching Mexal is that I don't really have a good reason to suspect him more than you. If we lynch mexal, my only option is to investigate Week (since I assume that the FM would kill masonity, and I already investigated you). So, if I got a guilty verdict on Week, I would know I am paranoid (because I am obviously not FM) and there is no combination of investigations that you and Week can do to produce an FM or CI result. OTOH, if Week came back innocent, then I would either be insane, or true. Neither one helps me differentiate between you and Week, and I haven't identified a set of investigations that would confirm either FM or innocent in that situation either. So, basically, I would be taking a shot in the dark, from my POV on the 2nd lynch.

That is, of course, based on my subjective POV. I certainly haven't been able to find something objectively verifiable. As a result, I would probably favor getting the next investigation results rather than lynch. I'm still not sure how to win the game with the extra investigations, but hopefully the new data will make that more clear.

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1305474' date='Apr 7 2008, 23.03']The only problem I have with lynching Mexal is that I don't really have a good reason to suspect him more than you. If we lynch mexal, my only option is to investigate Week (since I assume that the FM would kill masonity, and I already investigated you). So, if I got a guilty verdict on Week, I would know I am paranoid (because I am obviously not FM) and there is no combination of investigations that you and Week can do to produce an FM or CI result. OTOH, if Week came back innocent, then I would either be insane, or true. Neither one helps me differentiate between you and Week, and I haven't identified a set of investigations that would confirm either FM or innocent in that situation either. So, basically, I would be taking a shot in the dark, from my POV on the 2nd lynch.

That is, of course, based on my subjective POV. I certainly haven't been able to find something objectively verifiable. As a result, I would probably favor getting the next investigation results rather than lynch. I'm still not sure how to win the game with the extra investigations, but hopefully the new data will make that more clear.[/quote]

You can't just limit yourself to considering the results of your own investigations. To understand the complete situation, you have to analyze this according to the full scenarios....its not just who you'd investigate and what your results would be....its who each person would investigate, and what all of those results would say together.

Also, there's no reason why you wouldn't be able to investigate Masonity. Even if he's going to die, and even if we know he's innocent....in the right situation, investigating him could be the correct move. Depends on the scenario we choose to follow.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305483' date='Apr 8 2008, 00.15']You can't just limit yourself to considering the results of your own investigations. To understand the complete situation, you have to analyze this according to the full scenarios....its not just who you'd investigate and what your results would be....its who each person would investigate, and what all of those results would say together.

Also, there's no reason why you wouldn't be able to investigate Masonity. Even if he's going to die, and even if we know he's innocent....in the right situation, investigating him could be the correct move. Depends on the scenario we choose to follow.[/quote]

I didn't realize we could investigate masonity. Do NK actions always happen simultaneously then?

I do realize we need to look at the whole scenario, but I couldn't narrow it down to a course of action that produced objective results. So, I added the extra piece of information that I know subjectively, and thought about it in terms of potential lynch targets. I didn't list out all the combinations, but basically, with one of you and Week being the FM (in the event of a mexal lynch), it is impossible for me to differentiate between you, no matter who you investigate, nor what your results are. If you both you and Week investigated either masonity or myself, and came back with two innocent results, I would not be able to determine which of you was naive and which was lying. The ideal situation would be for Week to investigate me after a mexal lynch. If he came up with a guilty result, then I would know he was insane and that you were guilty. Week, of course, can't differentiate between you and me (objectively) because he doesn't know that I am CI, so there would not be a reason for Week to agree to lynch you.

Thus, we need more investigations.

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At this point, night is probably the best.

However, if you do decide to lynch me, do not let WJ dictate to everyone what they should do in every situation. If he's guilty, then you'll screw yourself.

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We are at roughly 6 hours and 15 minutes before the deadline.

"Houston, uh,

we, we sure could use
the investigation procedure up here.

When can we expect that?

Uh, that's comin'
real soon,Aquarius.

Uh, Houston, uh, we, we,

we just can't throw this
together at the last minute.

So here's what
you're gonna do.

You're gonna get the procedure
up to us, whatever it is,

and we're gonna go over it step
by step so there's no foul-ups.

I don't have to tell ya we're
all a little tired up here.

The world's gettin'
awfully big in the window.

- LCOTNW, this is Week.
- It's Week.

They don't know how
to do it.

Maybe Mexal's right.

- Hello there, Week.
What's the story?
- LCOTNW, we're gonna get that
investigation procedure to you.

We're gonna get it as soon as
we possibly can. WhiskeyJack is
in the simulator right now.

WhiskeyJack's working on it.

-Well, what's the latest we got?
-I want whatever you guys got
on these investigation procedures.

- Masonity, they're already--
- No, I don't want
the whole damn Bible.

Just gimme a couple chapters.
We gotta get somethin' up
to these guys.

- They're workin' on it now.
- I'll call over to the
simulator and get an estimate.

Goddamn it! I don't want
another estimate. I want
the procedures. Now!"

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[quote name='Mexal' post='1305599' date='Apr 8 2008, 06.11']At this point, night is probably the best.

However, if you do decide to lynch me, do not let WJ dictate to everyone what they should do in every situation. If he's guilty, then you'll screw yourself.[/quote]
I am definitely in agreement on both points.

[email protected] :) What a great movie.

Gotta run to class, be back in about 2 hours.

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Okay, wondering what people think about going to night, and having everyone (other than LC) investigate Masonity.

LC would investigate one of Week or Mexal (its pointless to have him investigate Masonity....he'd come up guilty in almost every scenario, regardless of LC's role).

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305861' date='Apr 8 2008, 08.56']Okay, wondering what people think about going to night, and having everyone (other than LC) investigate Masonity.

LC would investigate one of Week or Mexal (its pointless to have him investigate Masonity....he'd come up guilty in almost every scenario, regardless of LC's role).[/quote]

I think I should investigate masonity as well.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305907' date='Apr 8 2008, 09.28']Why?[/quote]

An innocent result on masonity confirms me as the true finder (from my POV), and thus *your* guilt. (btw, if you are guilty, you should not have pointed out that I can investigate masonity :P )

A guilty finding on masonity narrows my possibilities to insane or paranoid. A guilty result on a known innocent would be a strong step on that path to concluding I am paranoid. Other conclusions depend on results from the rest of you.

A guilty result on Week or Mexal leaves me as either paranoid or insane or true. (no real help there)

An innocent result on mexal or week could make me true, or insane (impossible to differentiate between you all)

In any event, I like the 50/50 shot of at least subjectively knowing the killer's identity tomorrow, with one more set of investigations to go.

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1305935' date='Apr 8 2008, 09.48']An innocent result on masonity confirms me as the true finder (from my POV), and thus *your* guilt. (btw, if you are guilty, you should not have pointed out that I can investigate masonity :P )

A guilty finding on masonity narrows my possibilities to insane or paranoid. A guilty result on a known innocent would be a strong step on that path to concluding I am paranoid. Other conclusions depend on results from the rest of you.

A guilty result on Week or Mexal leaves me as either paranoid or insane or true. (no real help there)

An innocent result on mexal or week could make me true, or insane (impossible to differentiate between you all)

In any event, I like the 50/50 shot of at least subjectively knowing the killer's identity tomorrow, with one more set of investigations to go.[/quote]

Okay...no. Look, there is only one scenario out of 10 in which you could possibly be the True Finder. Yes, in that one scenario, I'm the FM. But I'm not the FM, so to me, its a complete waste to have you go that route. And its a waste for you, as well, given that there's only a 10% chance of it being the real scenario.

Its [i]much[/i] better for you to investigate Week or Mexal. I'm not going to explain why, because I don't want to tip my hand here. But if you agree that a 10% chance of getting information is low, then almost anything else should be better...so try to just trust me here.

If you plan to investigate Masonity, then I will refuse to follow that plan, because it will basically sabotage the whole thing. I'll also probably end up ranking you as my top suspect, for what its worth.

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[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1305943' date='Apr 8 2008, 09.53']Okay...no. Look, there is only one scenario out of 10 in which you could possibly be the True Finder. Yes, in that one scenario, I'm the FM. But I'm not the FM, so to me, its a complete waste to have you go that route. And its a waste for you, as well, given that there's only a 10% chance of it being the real scenario.

Its [i]much[/i] better for you to investigate Week or Mexal. I'm not going to explain why, because I don't want to tip my hand here. But if you agree that a 10% chance of getting information is low, then almost anything else should be better...so try to just trust me here.

If you plan to investigate Masonity, then I will refuse to follow that plan, because it will basically sabotage the whole thing. I'll also probably end up ranking you as my top suspect, for what its worth.[/quote]

So, you are saying that there is some really important benefit that is derived from me investigating Week or Mexal (and your combination of investigations on masonity), and whichever one of them is the FM is too dumb to figure it out despite the hint you just dropped? I should not pursue a course which might prove your guilt because.... you are not guilty? Look, I realize there might be a method to your madness, but I am not willing to take your word on it.

Threatening to make me your top suspect is not the best tactic to take if you are trying to convince me to agree with you. I have no basis on which to trust you, and I am sure that once Week, mexal and masonity have added their $0.02, I can decide for myself what I am going to do.

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[quote name='LCOTNW' post='1305991' date='Apr 8 2008, 10.23']So, you are saying that there is some really important benefit that is derived from me investigating Week or Mexal (and your combination of investigations on masonity), and whichever one of them is the FM is too dumb to figure it out despite the hint you just dropped?[/quote]

Which is exactly why I didn't want to go through all of this.

Anyway, if you think they can figure it out, then why don't you take a few minutes and try to figure it out yourself?

[quote]Threatening to make me your top suspect is not the best tactic to take if you are trying to convince me to agree with you. I have no basis on which to trust you, and I am sure that once Week, mexal and masonity have added their $0.02, I can decide for myself what I am going to do.[/quote]

It wasn't a threat, it was reality. If you are unwilling to choose a course of action that benefits the innocents, then you are a top suspect. I can't see any reason why you would choose to investigate Masonity. You really want to check up on that 10% chance that you are the Finder and I'm the FM? You really think that's the best use of your investigation?

Anyway, guess I need to decide if I should just spell everything out for you.

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