AGOT Mafia 50 - The Chef Battle

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312459' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.47']Florent's style of posting is begging for a lynch. I bet I'm not the only one who had this impression already even before the attack on him started. If he's an FM, he's a touch too careless, don't you think?[/quote]

I can't speak for anybody else, but I disagree that he's been begging for a lynch. He's been pushing with the puns, mostly joking around. Seemed like a confident player to me. Hasn't come of as being weak or careless at all, IMO.


[quote]I also think that FM more often use a good opportunity to hop on a mob (or to fuel the heat) than they panic after 3 or 4 votes.[/quote]

That's just plain wrong. We are barely into the start of day 1. FM rarely attempt to fuel the fire on a mob at the start of the game. They usually hold back and let the innocents fuck around and cause trouble for them (unless they happen to be the target of the mob, in which case they end up in the thick of things, but not by choice).

Is there some reason why you think a FM would bother overextending himself and pushing hard for a case this early in the day? When the innocents are usually so good at wasting their time arguing with each other and getting each other lynched?

[Lady Gaga]

Let's have a look on my little list of suspects:


Stokeworth - started the attack by offering us a good piece of mafia logic. He was the first and I think he was honestly trying to increase the pressure on a player to get things moving.


Smallwood - the second one who thought that Florent was overreacting. Unfortunatly his post came only two minutes after Stokewroth's, so it's possible that he didn't saw Stokeworth's post before he bgan to write his own. Otherwise his post would ring my FM alert to a higher extent than it already does.


Merryweather - is bemused by Florent's fear of being accidently hanged. Is of the opinion that joke lynches never go through, which implied that Florent had no need to panic. He's not directly accusing Florent of anything, but he keeps his options open to vote for him. Very suspicious.


Fell - same problem as with Smallwood - he could have made his case without knowing that the other players already atacked Florent for the same reason. :unsure: Answers then a rethorical question by Florent, makes a sarcastic joke, thinks it was an overeaction by Florent in the end. Apparently he has not come to the conclusion that Florent was already in a serius danger. I agree that he overeacted, but it's not true that there was [u]no reason[/u] for panic at all. Since he is twisting logic to back up the case on Florent, he is suspicious.


Tollett - my vote is on him because he is the one who is blending in in the crowd. It's also irritating that he mentions the case on Grandison. Why does he think he needs to mention that? Is it a justification for a time when he might be forced to decide between this two? It looks somewhat odd to me.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312476' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.10']Merryweather - is bemused by Florent's fear of being accidently hanged. Is of the opinion that joke lynches never go through, which implied that Florent had no need to panic. He's not directly accusing Florent of anything, but he keeps his options open to vote for him. Very suspicious.[/quote]

He didn't have any reason to panic. However, I never said that since he panicked, he was in fact a FM which is why you see no vote from me. If you call probing and questioning logic "keeping my options open" then I am proud to be guilty of it.

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Stokeworth' post='1312466' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.00']I can't speak for anybody else, but I disagree that he's been begging for a lynch. He's been pushing with the puns, mostly joking around. Seemed like a confident player to me. Hasn't come of as being weak or careless at all, IMO.




That's just plain wrong. We are barely into the start of day 1. FM rarely attempt to fuel the fire on a mob at the start of the game. They usually hold back and let the innocents fuck around and cause trouble for them (unless they happen to be the target of the mob, in which case they end up in the thick of things, but not by choice).

Is there some reason why you think a FM would bother overextending himself and pushing hard for a case this early in the day? When the innocents are usually so good at wasting their time arguing with each other and getting each other lynched?[/quote]

I see who is overreacting here, and it's not a fox! :rolleyes:


Stokeworth, it's cute how you think that Florent is a confident player, which perfectly fits with the'overreacting' Florent persona. It's also beautiful how you vouch for the innocence of the other four players.

Finally, we know that there are symps out there who like to shift our attention in all the wrong places. And FM take opportunities when there is no risk. Blaming Florent for overreacting is not something that usually gets you in trouble.

[House Corbray]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312476' date='Apr 13 2008, 13.10']Smallwood - the second one who thought that Florent was overreacting. Unfortunatly his post came only two minutes after Stokewroth's, so it's possible that he didn't saw Stokeworth's post before he bgan to write his own. Otherwise his post would ring my FM alert to a higher extent than it already does.[/quote]

For the record, I was just trying to spark a reaction when I questioned Florent, I really hadn't seen that anyone else had done the same. I stand by what I said though - Florent is acting suspicious... just a bit too suspicious to actually be a prime suspect ;)

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Merryweather' post='1312480' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.17']He didn't have any reason to panic. However, I never said that since he panicked, he was in fact a FM which is why you see no vote from me. If you call probing and questioning logic "keeping my options open" then I am proud to be guilty of it.[/quote]

Why are you voting Thorne again? Am I right that you are more suspicious of Thorne than of Florent at the moment?

And if you think that Florent's panic has nothing to do with Florent being a FM, why do ou give us the impression that you are in line with Stokeworth, Smallwood, Fell and Tollett? They are certainly not discussing with Florent to critisize his gameplay, but because they think his behaviour could be a sign of guilt.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312493' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.28']Why are you voting Thorne again? Am I right that you are more suspicious of Thorne than of Florent at the moment?

And if you think that Florent's panic has nothing to do with Florent being a FM, why do ou give us the impression that you are in line with Stokeworth, Smallwood, Fell and Tollett? They are certainly not discussing with Florent to critisize his gameplay, but because they think his behaviour could be a sign of guilt.[/quote]

Don't start twisting my words. I really don't appreciate it.

I never said that Florent's panic had nothing to do with Florent being a FM. I said it didn't mean he was a FM. It could have to do with him being a FM but I haven't determined the truth of that yet since the game is only 8 hours old and the discussion is still young. I was quite simply probing to gain more information and I find it interesting that you're jumping all over me for doing just that with over 24 hours left in the game day.

As for my vote on Thorne, it was part of the joke vote stage. I'm not more suspicious of Thorne than Florent.

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312483' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.20']I see who is overreacting here, and it's not a fox! :rolleyes:[/quote]

So now every attempt to debate a point, and actually delve into mafia theory is an overreaction? That's a nice tactic. Any time somebody disagrees with you, yell 'overreaction' and you don't have to actually answer any of their points.

It's about here where I'm going to point out that you didn't actually respond to any of my points.


[quote]It's also beautiful how you vouch for the innocence of the other four players.[/quote]

I'm not vouching for their innocence. Any of them could be FM, if they are playing in a manner that defies what I would normally expect from a FM in that particular situation. And any of them could certanly be a symp....I do think a symp could attempt to encourage any and all mobs in this game. Depends on their playstyle and approach to the role.

What I am saying is, the FM don't have to encourage mobs on day 1. They don't have to cause chaos, or push early cases. So they [u]usually[/u] won't bother.

The important point here, to me, is that I don't agree with your reasoning. It is illogical and doesn't match up with my experience in past games. So now I'm pushing you, to explore your position.

[quote]FM take opportunities when there is no risk. Blaming Florent for overreacting is not something that usually gets you in trouble.[/quote]

Certainly disagree with you here. This is how games always go. Somebody does something stupid. A bunch of people react. Somebody jumps to the defense and says everyone who is attacking is suspicious. It happens all the time, regardless of the roles of the players involved. How can you even try to suggest the opposite is true?

Which is why the FM so often sit back and let the innocents attack each other early in the game, if they can manage it. They try to keep out of the suspicion being thrown everywhere.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Stokeworth' post='1312466' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.00']I can't speak for anybody else, but I disagree that he's been begging for a lynch. He's been pushing with the puns, mostly joking around. Seemed like a confident player to me. Hasn't come of as being weak or careless at all, IMO.[/quote]
I think that Florent definitely had a shovel in his hand, but it was not begging for a lynch. I think it is overstating to say that he was confident before, although he certainly was moreso than he is now.

[quote name='House Stokeworth' post='1312466' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.00']Is there some reason why you think a FM would bother overextending himself and pushing hard for a case this early in the day? When the innocents are usually so good at wasting their time arguing with each other and getting each other lynched?[/quote]
A very good point IMO.

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312476' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.10']Fell - same problem as with Smallwood - he could have made his case without knowing that the other players already atacked Florent for the same reason. :unsure: Answers then a rethorical question by Florent, makes a sarcastic joke, thinks it was an overeaction by Florent in the end. [i]Apparently he has not come to the conclusion that Florent was already in a serius danger[/i]. I agree that he overeacted, but it's not true that there was [u]no reason[/u] for panic at all. Since he is twisting logic to back up the case on Florent, he is suspicious.[/quote]
It should be abundantly clear that I don't think Florent was in any danger of being lynched. You look here like you are suggesting he was in serious danger, since when do we consider 4 joking votes about 6 hours into the day as being dangerous?

eta- Wythers, you haven't answered my question from before. What makes you so certain of Florent's innocence?

[House Tyrell]

Where did everyone go? :(

[House Tully]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312476' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.10']Tollett - my vote is on him because he is the one who is blending in in the crowd. It's also irritating that he mentions the case on Grandison. Why does he think he needs to mention that? Is it a justification for a time when he might be forced to decide between this two? It looks somewhat odd to me.[/quote]

I thought I pretty much dismissed the case against Grandison. I'm not sure how this is an attempt to leave myself options should I have to make a decision between the two down the line. I don't now and didn't then think the recipe was anything but a nice recipe.

And I still maintain that Florent's conniptions over the fourth vote of nine is the most suspicious thing that has happened so far. And even that is a trifle.

I also don't see how placing a fourth vote is 'blending into a crowd'. It was the Day 1 equivalent of standing on a rock and thumping one's chest Tarzan style. It also inspired the reaction that led to the most substantive discussion so far.

Which was what I hoped for when I did it. I think the results were most helpful.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Tollett' post='1312626' date='Apr 13 2008, 17.57']I also don't see how placing a fourth vote is 'blending into a crowd'. It was the Day 1 equivalent of standing on a rock and thumping one's chest Tarzan style. It also inspired the reaction that led to the most substantive discussion so far.

Which was what I hoped for when I did it. I think the results were most helpful.[/quote]
Don't pat yourself on the back, or chest, that hard. I don't think it was that outrageous of a move, however I do agree that it wouldn't be done without attracting attention.

I think it is also interesting to note that Grandison was around as the Florent discussion was happening and disappeared without commenting on it. Avoiding a situation where they didn't want to take a side? Everyone else on at the time was involved in some part except for him.

[House Dondarrion]

I have just got back from whatever it was I was doing.

I've had a quick skim through what I missed and I've noticed that some people are setting Florrent up for elimination. Not quite sure what to make of it yet, as I need to read it through a bit more carefully. But it does seam wythers has a point ie a few people suddenly (at least for me as I'm reading it) all ganging up on one person over one reason. Which I suppose increases the chances of one of you being a FM and seeing a opportunity. One the other hand wythers speaking out could be a symp protecting his master or just an innocent who don't really see the case on the fox. Maybe animals have to stick together?

These are my impressions from a quick scan. I will get back shortly when I have read everything again, and thought about it.

[House Thorne]

I read the "Florent Affair" and I don't think much of it. Stokeworth is putting pressure on Florent, something I approve of. It had the desired effect of getting reactions from Florent and getting reactions from the others then on-line. It was useful. But at this point, I didn't see anything that persuaded me that Florent is guilty or that any of the pressure voters are either. It's just the most interesting thing to happen so far. :shrug:


[quote name='House Plumm' post='1312653' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.11']I have just got back from whatever it was I was doing.

I've had a quick skim through what I missed and I've noticed that some people are setting Florrent up for elimination. Not quite sure what to make of it yet, as I need to read it through a bit more carefully. But it does seam wythers has a point ie a few people suddenly (at least for me as I'm reading it) all ganging up on one person over one reason. Which I suppose increases the chances of one of you being a FM and seeing a opportunity. One the other hand wythers speaking out could be a symp protecting his master or just an innocent who don't really see the case on the fox. Maybe animals have to stick together?

These are my impressions from a quick scan. I will get back shortly when I have read everything again, and thought about it.[/quote]

Is there some rush for you to post before you've had a chance to read and digest what happened? Or are you waiting for others to post so you can see which way this is going?

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Fell' post='1312520' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.54']eta- Wythers, you haven't answered my question from before. What makes you so certain of Florent's innocence?[/quote]

I think I answered your question in post 198, first paragraph.


[quote name='House Fell' post='1312520' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.54']It should be abundantly clear that I don't think Florent was in any danger of being lynched. You look here like you are suggesting he was in serious danger, since when do we consider 4 joking votes about 6 hours into the day as being dangerous?[/quote]

Abundantly clear, yes. From your POV, Florent was as safe as any mafia player who just has made 5 new foes could be. :rolleyes:


Ok, I'm a bit tired, but let's see if I can express my thoughts in a way that's not too complicated:


1) Players get lynched on day 1 for making stupid mistakes regularly. It is known.


2) Everyone who has played a couple of mafia games knows that panicking too early on day 1 could kill you, if this 'mishaps' becomes the centre of the discussion. What do you think would have happened if I had not intervened?


3) You agree with me that Florent already had a shovel in his hand, but you don't think that he was in [u]any[/u] danger? Provoking behaviour plus bad mistake plus a couple of votes on you means.....everything is fine?


4) FM have to put there vote somewhere, and they are thankful for every opportunity that gives them a chance to 'contribute' and to look 'helpful'. That's why I think that it's possible that one of you fellows could be a FM. One of you should be evil by statistic means alone, so it's not a big deal to state this thesis.



5) To make this clear: I don't think that Florent was in immediate danger when he panicked. I think he was in danger after he panicked. I also think that his playstyle so far has been a bit too careless to be a FM.

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Stokeworth' post='1312463' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.50']Would love to hear your reasoning for that, Wythers.

Is it that you oppose putting a little bit of pressure on somebody? You oppose following up on that pressure, to see what kind of information it can yield?

Or do you think that people are attacking an 'easy target'? If so, what makes you think of Florent as 'easy'? He seems like a fairly competent player to me. That's one of the reasons why I like the pressure on him. He's not somebody bumbling around, making a fool of himself. Up until the point where he panicked a bit, he was a calm, somewhat humorous player.

Or something else?

I always find it interesting when somebody is opposed to provocation during the very stage of the game in which provocation is most important and oftentimes most effective.[/quote]


Sorry Stokeworth, I completely overlooked that post of yours, you are right to demand an answer to your questions.


1) I already said that you were the least suspcious of the group, because you were the first one to post your suspicion of Florent. You posted your questions while I was writing my own big post, which included this here:
[quote name='Wythers']Stokeworth - started the attack by offering us a good piece of mafia logic. He was the first and I think he was honestly trying to increase the pressure on a player to get things moving.[/quote]

Hence I say I already answered this question without every reading your post. ;)


2) Attacking an easy target - that's certainly a part of my suspicion. However, I think it was the case itself that was an invitation - as you said yourself - to suspect Florent. Like I already explained, FM are thankful when a player offers them an easy way to 'suspect' him.


3) Since I am provocing you and others, I am obviously not opposed to provocations. What exactly did you want to say with that btw? That my aim was to stall discussion?


4) What do you think of Merryweather? (ok, that was not an answer to one of your questions, but a provocation :P)

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Plumm' post='1312653' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.11']I have just got back from whatever it was I was doing.

I've had a quick skim through what I missed and I've noticed that some people are setting Florrent up for elimination. Not quite sure what to make of it yet, as I need to read it through a bit more carefully. But it does seam wythers has a point ie a few people suddenly (at least for me as I'm reading it) all ganging up on one person over one reason. Which I suppose increases the chances of one of you being a FM and seeing a opportunity. One the other hand wythers speaking out could be a symp protecting his master or just an innocent who don't really see the case on the fox. Maybe animals have to stick together?

These are my impressions from a quick scan. I will get back shortly when I have read everything again, and thought about it.[/quote]

You win the "Day 1 Wishy-Washy Price", sponsored by Mace Tyrell.

Congratulations!

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Thorne' post='1312666' date='Apr 13 2008, 22.21']Is there some rush for you to post before you've had a chance to read and digest what happened? Or are you waiting for others to post so you can see which way this is going?[/quote]

No rush really, But I am not gonna be here for long so I thought you may want my thought process.

Looks like I'm rushing to respond again (only re-read up to page 8)

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']I think I answered your question in post 198, first paragraph.[/quote]
You said:
[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312459' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.47']Florent's style of posting is begging for a lynch. I bet I'm not the only one who had this impression already even before the attack on him started. If he's an FM, he's a touch too careless, don't you think?

I also think that FM more often use a good opportunity to hop on a mob (or to fuel the heat) than they panic after 3 or 4 votes.[/quote]
You think that he is begging for a lynch. How is he begging for a lynch and how does that make him innocent in your opinion. My issue here is you said this:[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312437' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.34']Look like my suspect pool has just been narrowed down to Stokeworth, Smallwood, Fell, Merryweather and Tollett. But which of these botchers is convinced of what he is saying, and which one did just find an excellent opportunity to knot the rope for an innocent?

[b]Tollett[/b], am I already voting for you?[/quote]
You've already narrowed your [i]suspect pool[/i] and have Florent at CI essentially. A very dumb move for an innocent to make, particularly based on faulty logic.


[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']Abundantly clear, yes. From your POV, Florent was as safe as any mafia player who just has made 5 new foes could be. :rolleyes:[/quote]
New foes? Fuck sake, are you serious? IT WAS SIX HOURS INTO THE GAME. I'm not sure if you noticed that or when I pointed it out before so I will remind you again. IT WAS SIX HOURS INTO THE GAME. Why are you overstating the situation and the "danger" that he was in. Florent was in, literally, no danger of getting lynched. There was a zero percent chance of him getting lynched. Zero. Nada. There is a zero percent chance of any of us getting lynched for probably the next 15 hours or so. Do you understand what I'm saying? Please let me know if you are confused with what is going on here because you are drawing from a set of assumptions about the way this game is played that is not based in reality.

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']1) Players [i]never[/i] get lynched [i]in the first 6 hours[/i] on day 1 for making stupid mistakes [i]that occur in the first 6 hours[/i] regularly. It is known.[/quote]
Fixed. He may well get lynched today. However, that will be awhile from now, and I can't tell you whether I'll agree with it at that time or not because that is a lot of time for a lot of things to happen.
[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']2) Everyone who has played a couple of mafia games knows that panicking too early on day 1 could kill you, if this 'mishaps' becomes the centre of the discussion. What do you think would have happened if I had not intervened?[/quote]
And yet people still panic day 1. Sometimes you just react, sometimes it is a new player, who knows. What would have happened if you hadn't intervened? Well aren't you the plucky fucking hero saving his life, huh? What would have happened? We would have probably pressured him as it did happen, then people would remove their votes because they don't want a lynch (...dare I say it again? I dare...) 6 HOURS INTO THE GAME.
[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']3) You agree with me that Florent already had a shovel in his hand, but you don't think that he was in [u]any[/u] danger? Provoking behaviour plus bad mistake plus a couple of votes on you means.....everything is fine?[/quote]
This time I'm not going to say it again. I'll add this to what you know I want to repeat again though, innocents don't have a monopoly on dumb.
[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']4) FM have to put there vote somewhere, and they are thankful for every opportunity that gives them a chance to 'contribute' and to look 'helpful'. That's why I think that it's possible that one of you fellows could be a FM. One of you should be evil by statistic means alone, so it's not a big deal to state this thesis.[/quote]
It is a big deal to CI someone, which is what you previously suggested and what this statistical logic demands. Had Florent been an FM or symp, this would throw off your statistics and your logic for cutting your suspect pool down to 4 players.

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312668' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.22']5) To make this clear: I don't think that Florent was in immediate danger when he panicked. I think he was in danger after he panicked. I also think that his playstyle so far has been a bit too careless to be a FM.[/quote]
You've been suggesting his innocence BECAUSE of his panic and justifying it by saying he was in danger. Again, I'm wondering why you think innocents have a monopoly on stupid?

[House Targaryen]

Clarification:

If a finder were to investigate an assistant killer, and the AF were to get promoted later on, the finder would NOT get new results on the old investigation unless they investigated again.

-Kat

Working on a vote count btw. Be patient.