AGOT Mafia 50 - The Chef Battle

[Lady Gaga]

* waves Fell goodbye as the guy enters that long, long tunnel *


:cheers:

[House Dondarrion]

Florrent panicked early with only a few votes. I can however understand thinking there may have been more votes as there had been no vote count. I have also known innocents as well as FM to panic when they acquire joke votes over a short time frame. If Florrent is evil and his partner(s) had been around I would expect some deflection tactic. I would also have expected him/her/them to have cautioned Florrent in their secret lair, as I would have expected Florrent to mention it there first.

Therefore if Florrent is evil then I would expect his partners to be absent when he/she panicked. I think Wythers was / is a little too obvious in defending Florrent to be a partner.

Gradison did post a late recipe (ie the recipe jokes seamed to have died down and been a few hours old). Gradison however had just shown up and decided to join in. Yes this could be a lets join the throng and say something post by a FM to fit in. A “case” suggested by Stokeworth. To me this is just a “point” instead of a case. But hell, its day one and early. IMO it was just Gradisons way of saying hello, and it fit with what he had been reading (as it was recent to him).

What is interesting is that Thorne then followed with his own recipe. Thorne had been around at the time of the recipes, so could have posted it then. (maybe it just took him a long while to think of it, and was waiting the opotunity) So if anyone is guilty of trying to fit in by posting later recipes its Thorne. But its Gradison Stokeworth brought up twice.

Stokeworth, Is there a reason you don’t want us to look at Thorne?

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312711' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.21']* waves Fell goodbye as the guy enters that long, long tunnel *


:cheers:[/quote]
I'm tunnel-visioned? Hah.

And to be accused of that by someone that CIed another player day 1. That's rich.

[House Payne]

[quote name='Wythers']3) Since I am provocing you and others, I am obviously not opposed to provocations. What exactly did you want to say with that btw? That my aim was to stall discussion?[/quote]

In this particular case, it's not that you are opposed to provocation in general, but rather that you wish to control the direction of the provocation. You obviously don't like the votes/questioning of Florent. It's possible that you want to deflect us away from him.

[quote name='Wythers']4) What do you think of Merryweather? (ok, that was not an answer to one of your questions, but a provocation :P)[/quote]

Haven't found him to be very suspicious thus far. I've agreed with most of his posts. And to be honest, I'm not really clear why he's even on your list of suspects.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 1.

16 players remain: Connington, Corbray, Dayne, Erenford, Fell, Florent, Grandison, Mallister, Merryweather, Plumm, Pommingham, Smallwood, Stokeworth, Thorne, Tollett, Wythers.

9 votes are needed for a conviction or 8 to go to night.

3 votes for Florent (Dayne, Fell, Tollett)
2 votes for Thorne (Merryweather, Plumm)
1 vote for Merryweather (Thorne)
1 vote for Corbray (Connington)
1 vote for Stokeworth (Grandison)
1 vote for Grandison (Stokeworth)
1 vote for Tollett (Wythers)
1 vote for Fell (Florent)

5 players have not voted: Corbray, Erenford, Mallister, Pommingham, Smallwood.

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Plumm' post='1312723' date='Apr 13 2008, 18.37']Stokeworth, Is there a reason you don’t want us to look at Thorne?[/quote]

I said that Thorne's recipe post was suspicious too -

[quote name='Stokeworth']*adds Thorne to the list of followers*[/quote]

Yeah, my later post, where I said people should comment on the recipe/follower issue, just mentioned Grandison. But if I was hoping to deflect attention away from Thorne (as you are implying), then why would I repeat a 'case' that nobody was talking about, when I had already acknowledged that it was a black mark against Thorne as much as it was a point against Grandison? Wouldn't really make much sense.

[House Wythers]

I am not real impressed with the case on Florent. If I had 4 votes on me and no clear definition of how many votes were needed to lynch, and no clear feel for the number of evil players, I might say something as well. Yes, it's true that some basic research of the game mechanics would lead to the logical result that 9 votes are needed to lynch on Day 1, but if I had a nickel for every lazy bastard that can't be bothered to count/re-read for him/herself, I would be richer than Tywin Lannister. I think Florent's did not over-react at first, but only after being put on the defensive by other players. Fell was making some good points about Florent's behavior, especially in pointing out that Florent was wrong about a number of facts including the post count and the number required for lynching. Be that as it may, Fell has also been a little sloppy in pursuing Florent with mistakes like not remembering that he had a vote on Florent already when threatening to change his vote to Florent. I also think that some of Fell's posts are overstating things. For example, I don't agree that Wythers was CIing anyone, merely focusing on a group that he finds more suspicious. Yeah, Fell, maybe a little tunnel visioned (that doesn't make you wrong about Florent, but you've kind of had a hard on for him even from the initial joke votes).

Most of the other accusations have also seemed like just a bunch of lashing about with little substance, in other words, typical Day 1 stuff. I'm not sure I have a handle on the roles in this game, but my first impression is that a 2 FM/1 promotable symp/1 generic symp game seems to feel right. Interestingly, a promotable symp has a conflict of interest. If they put themselves in a position to jump in front of the bullet for the FM, and cause distractions, they put themselves in a difficult position to avoid suspicion if they should get promoted. All we know for sure is that there is at least one FM, and one generic symp. If there is a promotable symp, they would likely keep a low profile and allow the generic symp to do their job.

I don't see Florent as an FM based on this over-reaction to the 4 votes thing that has been offered so far. Maybe the kid Symp? Not really likely in my view since he has basically been on the defensive much of the time. I didn't like the lame attempt to shift focus onto Merryweather, though.

There is really no motivation for the FM to be involved in this Florent situation. I would look for the Symp to be in the Tollett/Stokeworth role, if anything. With 16 players, it is also completely possible that all of the team evil are sitting back as there is really no need to get involved in the discussion at all. FM/promotable symp(s) are likely to be found among: Mallister, Dayne, Erenford, Pommingham, Connington, (and myself - based on low profile). Plumm is on the bubble. Apparently, I need to include the disclaimer that I am not CI'ing all other players at this point. These are just some initial thoughts.

For now, I will put a vote on [b]Mallister[/b] for the 3 quick posts at the beginning, and then disappearing.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Corbray' post='1312854' date='Apr 13 2008, 22.26']Fell was making some good points about Florent's behavior, especially in pointing out that Florent was wrong about a number of facts including the post count and the number required for lynching. Be that as it may, Fell has also been a little sloppy in pursuing Florent with mistakes like not remembering that he had a vote on Florent already when threatening to change his vote to Florent. I also think that some of Fell's posts are overstating things. For example, I don't agree that Wythers was CIing anyone, merely focusing on a group that he finds more suspicious. Yeah, Fell, maybe a little tunnel visioned (that doesn't make you wrong about Florent, but you've kind of had a hard on for him even from the initial joke votes).[/quote]
That was sloppy on my part, simply being careless with votes early on and at that point I found I actually had a real reason to give a vote. Ironic that at the time I didn't even realize that it was one of my own votes that helped to cause Florent's blowup. The tunnel visioned thing is really not a big deal, but I do want to point out that I have not cleared anyone and I've said I'm not sure of anyone's guilt. Some of my actual thoughts I will keep a bit closer to my chest if I want to simply pressure someone further because maybe I can discover that my initial thoughts were wrong about someone. That's the beauty of creating a stressful situation for another player, you'll see people do things under stress that they wouldn't normally do. To be honest, I don't think there is any way that Florent and Wythers are both actually guilty. If they are, I am sure we'll catch them soon enough for something else because describing their behavior as dumb if they were partners or a symp and master would be quite the understatement.

As for Wythers not CIing anyone:
[quote name='House Wythers' post='1312437' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.34']Look like my suspect pool has just been narrowed down to Stokeworth, Smallwood, Fell, Merryweather and Tollett. But which of these botchers is convinced of what he is saying, and which one did just find an excellent opportunity to knot the rope for an innocent?
[b]Tollett[/b], am I already voting for you?[/quote]
Perhaps not CI, but he is narrowing his suspect list based on an assumption which really is not that strong. Here he seems to be looking to make a decision on who he wants to lynch. Perhaps he is just doing this for pressure, he seems to think he is good at that, although looking back I haven't noticed him being particularly aggressive until Florent dug himself into a hole.

Reading back through that time period of about 6 hours in I noticed these two posts (where I make my mistake forgetting where my vote is):
[quote name='House Florent' post='1312426' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.27']Okay I'll give you that much I guess.

Also, something to think about. If i was a killer, I'd know exactly how many votes lynched at all times. I'd also have a partner or two holding my hand. Added to that, I'd have a symp out there to do the "back off, that's too many"ing for me.

Would a killer really have mis-remembered how close to a lynch they were and panic-asked for joke votes to back off?[/quote]
[quote name='House Florent' post='1312439' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.35']Last I recall it is on me, no? o.O[/quote]
This is not damning by any means, however it is interesting to note that Florent plays the "I had no idea what was going on, but I would if I was an FM, right?" card..followed by correcting [i]me[/i] where my vote was. So did they really not know what was going on?

In looking through the group that was around at the time other than Florent and Wythers, I'd say that Grandison and Smallwood would be the most suspicious to me. I noted before that I thought it was odd that Grandison disappeared and never commented on it (could be just coincidence of course). Smallwood, looking back, actually took a bit more of a middle of the road approach. Never really asking too much in the way of questions to either side, removed their vote, this wishy-washy post as well:
[quote name='House Smallwood' post='1312444' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.37']I really hate the 'if I were a killer...' routine. It actually makes me suspect you a little now Florent. Though the fact you seem to be digging your own grave makes me suspect you a little bit less... hmmm...[/quote]
Also, Wythers mentions that Smallwood was the second to note Florent's overreaction. Here is the question:
[quote name='House Smallwood' post='1312406' date='Apr 13 2008, 15.19']Why so afraid of getting lynched Florent? Afraid you'll let down your evil killing team without having even killed anyone yet?[/quote]
and Smallwood's comment regarding their post above:
[quote name='House Smallwood' post='1312490' date='Apr 13 2008, 16.27']For the record, I was just trying to spark a reaction when I questioned Florent, I really hadn't seen that anyone else had done the same. I stand by what I said though - Florent is acting suspicious... just a bit too suspicious to actually be a prime suspect ;)[/quote]
I just don't see a post like that really sparking discussion, at least from Florent. Maybe it is just me, but the second sentence takes away a lot of the bite and seriousness.

[quote name='House Corbray' post='1312854' date='Apr 13 2008, 22.26']Most of the other accusations have also seemed like just a bunch of lashing about with little substance, in other words, typical Day 1 stuff. I'm not sure I have a handle on the roles in this game, but my first impression is that a 2 FM/1 promotable symp/1 generic symp game seems to feel right. Interestingly, a promotable symp has a conflict of interest. If they put themselves in a position to jump in front of the bullet for the FM, and cause distractions, they put themselves in a difficult position to avoid suspicion if they should get promoted. All we know for sure is that there is at least one FM, and one generic symp. If there is a promotable symp, they would likely keep a low profile and allow the generic symp to do their job.[/quote]
I see you came to the same conclusion as Wythers did earlier. Thinking about it more, I'm a bit mixed still although I see more merit in your theory. I feel like there ought to be 3 FM with this number of players, but having a symp that becomes an FM can be strong because they would not have any ties. Particularly if they are investigated and found to be innocent early on. Still, I think 3 and 1 makes more sense to me.

[quote name='House Corbray' post='1312854' date='Apr 13 2008, 22.26']There is really no motivation for the FM to be involved in this Florent situation. I would look for the Symp to be in the Tollett/Stokeworth role, if anything. With 16 players, it is also completely possible that all of the team evil are sitting back as there is really no need to get involved in the discussion at all. FM/promotable symp(s) are likely to be found among: Mallister, Dayne, Erenford, Pommingham, Connington, (and myself - based on low profile). Plumm is on the bubble. Apparently, I need to include the disclaimer that I am not CI'ing all other players at this point. These are just some initial thoughts.[/quote]
I think that is probably the most likely explanation. There is still validity to either Wythers or Florent as FM, but it probably is more likely that the FM were not involved. As I pointed out before, Smallwood aroused slight suspicion in my reread, but they also made some good points as well. See Wythers (if you are innocent), this is a more logical way of trying to break down the group, not assuming someone is innocent because you think they are and working off of that assumption.

[House Tyrell]

Ladies and Gentlemen,
I give you...CON!-ington
[quote name='House Connington' post='1312163' date='Apr 13 2008, 11.50']I don't care for your implications ser. My brownies are delicious and wholesome, and will in no way cause you to pull a Hayford.*


*[font="Arial Narrow"][size=1]May result in drowsiness, dizziness, headaches, psychosis, hallucinations...should not be combined with other medications...[/size] [/font][/quote]
[quote name='House Connington' post='1312143' date='Apr 13 2008, 10.32']Is it just me or has Corbray been in the privy for a very long time... what's the matter [b]Corbray[/b], had an accident with some of those secret herbs and spices?

On a totally unrelated note, would anyone like some brownies? They're my own very special recipe. ;)[/quote]
That is what I call substance in their grand total of 2 posts.

Other offenders:
Mallister (noted by Corbray) 3
Pommingham 4
Ereford 5
other low posters have at least shown some thoughtfulness in their posts so I won't yell at them. Yet.

[House Tyrell]

Is this going to be one of those nights that I just end up talking to myself?

I can't wait for day 1 to be over.

[House Sunglass]

I'll join the group of Florent's enemies. The case is rather decent for day 1.
And I agree that, is fox guilty or not, there are probably no FMs in this group.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='House Pommingham' post='1312905' date='Apr 13 2008, 23.50']I'll join the group of Florent's enemies. The case is rather decent for day 1.
And I agree that, is fox guilty or not, there are probably no FMs in this group.[/quote]
In which group? The group of "Florent's enemies"? Who is in this group in your opinion and why aren't any FM? What do you like about the 'case'?

[House Tyrell]

Are you still thinking about your answer? Shouldn't take longer than 20 minutes [b]Pommingham[/b].

[House Connington]

Eh, I'm going to join Corbray and Wythers in not seeing Florent's reaction as particularly suspicious. Given the lack of vote counts and such, I can see him getting confused and thinking he was closer to a lynch than he actually was. I'm not sure yet what I think of Wythers's reaction. Although I agree with him in not really liking the case on Florent, his reaction to it is still oddly vehement. However, I liked Fell's point about Smallwood's posts. He looks like he's pressuring Florent...except not. And I have to say, I don't really see how Florent is acting too suspicious to be suspicious. [b]Smallwood[/b] gets my vote for now.

[House Connington]

And I don't like Pommingham's last post either. If you like the case on Florent, why not vote for him?

[House Targaryen]

Shadowmod is going to sleep now. Here's the vote count before I go:

It is day 1.

16 players remain: Connington, Corbray, Dayne, Erenford, Fell, Florent, Grandison, Mallister, Merryweather, Plumm, Pommingham, Smallwood, Stokeworth, Thorne, Tollett, Wythers.

9 votes are needed for a conviction or 8 to go to night.

2 votes for Thorne (Merryweather, Plumm)
2 votes for Florent (Dayne, Tollett)
1 vote for Pommingham (Fell)
1 vote for Fell (Florent)
1 vote for Stokeworth (Grandison)
1 vote for Merryweather (Thorne)
1 vote for Mallister (Corbray)
1 vote for Grandison (Stokeworth)
1 vote for Tollett (Wythers)
1 vote for Smallwood (Connington)

4 players have not voted: Erenford, Mallister, Pommingham, Smallwood.

[House Tyrell]

...and 19 hours left in the day.

[Magic Mirror]

Day one was unexpected today for me as a player. I was lucky I'd checked the board when I did to get in my first few posts.

I was at work till not that long ago. I'm re-reading at the moment.

[House Dayne]

Well, I tend to think Florent overreacted to a degree. Certainly the likelihood of a lynch going through based on someone making bad jokes is remote and honestly, I'd be stunned if that actually happened.

What I then have to ask is if Florent is more likely to be guilty because of this overreaction and the subsequent defensiveness? I'd have to say yes, but only very slightly so. If I were pressed, I'd say I consider Florent to be slightly more likely to be guilty than your imaginary typical player, but not significantly so at this stage.

I'd definitely like to hear [b]Pommingham[/b] explain what their point of view actually is instead of making us decipher their views from cryptic bandwaggoning statements, so I'll add my vote there.

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Fell' post='1312880' date='Apr 14 2008, 03.20']This is not damning by any means, however it is interesting to note that Florent plays the "I had no idea what was going on, but I would if I was an FM, right?" card..followed by correcting [i]me[/i] where my vote was. So did they really not know what was going on?[/quote]

Still catching up, but i'll respond tio this now so i don't miss it...

The simple fact is i went back and tried to count the votes on me. It still came out at 4 or 5, and your name was prominent on the list. Why would i remember the person i have a joke vote on joke voting me? Who knows. However there's a huge difference between realising exactly where we stand and knowing that player x has a vote on me.