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Ran

[Pre-ADwD Spoilers] "New" POV 1 - Spoilers for ADwD

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Thanks Bronn.

So, a task in mind, one that requires Theon to regain some colour and health. Could be an attempt on roose's life. Could be he wants to sue Theon as a figurehead to try and cow the remaining ironborn.

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[quote name='Bronn Stone' post='1327660' date='Apr 24 2008, 06.29']I just got a copy in the mail today.

Here is my summary:

[[/i][/quote]

Thanks Bronn, and everyone else who posted chapter summaries on this website as well as the person who posted on Livejournal. I can't wait to read "Reek"'s next chapter. Would losing your toes make it harder to run, does anyone know?

The unknown lord- I don't think we know him yet.. he doesn't sound like a Ryswell, Lord Ryswell was Roose Bolton's dead wife's father. I doubt he would wish to associate with the bastard replacement for his grandson Domeric.

The fake Arya Stark angle might potentially involve Sansa if she turns up in the North to make good her claim on the North. She can identify Jeyne Poole and Jeyne Poole can identify her.

I would love to see Ramsay fall out with his father, but I doubt it will happen. Ramsay has authority in the North only because Roose granted it to him. Besides Roose has a wife, and is the key to the Frey alliance through that. I doubt with the troubles in the North, the Boltons can afford to antagonise Walder Frey or indeed King's Landing which has named Roose Warden of the North. I think it more likely that Ramsay is heading towards Moat Cailin to secure the North in his father's name.

As to the question whether he can be continue at archery, I think it depends which fingers he's lost...

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Thanks Bronn, very chilling. :)

[i]The Bastard sits in his father's chair drinking from his father's cup[/i]

Since we're in the dubious speculation zone, this is conclusive (and by conclusive I mean fairly weak) support for the hypothesis that Theon will be used to assassinate Lord Bolton as part of Ramsay's attempt to usurp all his father's properties and claims.

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So now we know, I suppose, that the twisted old lord is a Karstark thanks to the sunburst on his cloak. Which really makes it seem likely that it's Arnolf, and that he's playing Stannis.

ETA: Alternatively, "starburst" is quite deliberate, and it's not the Karstark sunburst that we're seeing. Which means a new Northern house, though, and I'm dubious of that one. Edited by Ran

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[quote name='grinachu' post='1327736' date='Apr 24 2008, 10.28']Thanks Bronn, and everyone else who posted chapter summaries on this website as well as the person who posted on Livejournal. I can't wait to read "Reek"'s next chapter. Would losing your toes make it harder to run, does anyone know?[/quote]

I'd say it would. Your toes are a big part of getting the proper balance as you run.

[quote name='grinachu' post='1327736' date='Apr 24 2008, 10.28']The unknown lord- I don't think we know him yet.. he doesn't sound like a Ryswell, Lord Ryswell was Roose Bolton's dead wife's father. I doubt he would wish to associate with the bastard replacement for his grandson Domeric.[/quote]

The twisted old Lord seems to Arnolf Karstark, or at least a Karstark, seeing how he has a sunburst as a clasp of his cloak.

[quote name='grinachu' post='1327736' date='Apr 24 2008, 10.28']I would love to see Ramsay fall out with his father, but I doubt it will happen. Ramsay has authority in the North only because Roose granted it to him. Besides Roose has a wife, and is the key to the Frey alliance through that. I doubt with the troubles in the North, the Boltons can afford to antagonise Walder Frey or indeed King's Landing which has named Roose Warden of the North. I think it more likely that Ramsay is heading towards Moat Cailin to secure the North in his father's name.
As to the question whether he can be continue at archery, I think it depends which fingers he's lost...[/quote]

Since Tommen legitamised Ramsay as a Bolton, Ramsay is first in line as Roose's heir, presumably to all Roose's titles. If anything, it was when Ramsay was a simple Snow he had to be obidient to Roose's wishes. Now that he's the appointed heir he's free to move against Roose.

Reading about the terrible shape Theon/Reek is in I doubt he'll be going around assainate anyone, unless of course Ramsay somehow disables Roose and has Theon deliver the coup de grace to escape a kinslaying curse.

EDIT: Regarding to the Karstarks playing Stannis, do we know the timeframe? I doubt it, but for all we know this chapter takes place before Stannis establish himself at the Wall and the Karstarks actually leaves Ramsay for the better offer made by Stannis. Edited by urizen

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[quote name='Ran' post='1327761' date='Apr 24 2008, 09.12']So now we know, I suppose, that the twisted old lord is a Karstark thanks to the sunburst on his cloak. Which really makes it seem likely that it's Arnolf, and that he's playing Stannis.

ETA: Alternatively, "starburst" is quite deliberate, and it's not the Karstark sunburst that we're seeing. Which means a new Northern house, though, and I'm dubious of that one.[/quote]


The only two surviving Karstarks we know of are Arnolf and Harrion. Harrion is described as a fierce young man with a beard, so we can rule him out (although I would love to know where he is..). As for whether it is a starburst or a sunburst, I think Bronn can just tell us that by looking at the chapter. I agree it would seem odd to introduce a new northern house at this point since the North seems pretty well peopled with lords already, but if the word "starburst" is used, I can only imagine it would be used deliberately.

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[quote name='urizen' post='1327763' date='Apr 24 2008, 09.13']I'd say it would. Your toes are a big part of getting the proper balance as you run.



The twisted old Lord seems to Arnolf Karstark, or at least a Karstark, seeing how he has a sunburst as a clasp of his cloak.



Since Tommen legitamised Ramsay as a Bolton, Ramsay is first in line as Roose's heir, presumably to all Roose's titles. If anything, it was when Ramsay was a simple Snow he had to be obidient to Roose's wishes. Now that he's the appointed heir he's free to move against Roose.

Reading about the terrible shape Theon/Reek is in I doubt he'll be going around assainate anyone, unless of course Ramsay somehow disables Roose and has Theon deliver the coup de grace to escape a kinslaying curse.

EDIT: Regarding to the Karstarks playing Stannis, do we know the timeframe? I doubt it, but for all we know this chapter takes place before Stannis establish himself at the Wall and the Karstarks actually leaves Ramsay for the better offer made by Stannis.[/quote]

Thanks, those are all excellent points. I would point out that Roose Bolton killed Robb Stark himself when he decided to betray the Starks which is in keeping with the First Men's custom of doing your own killing. I don't know if this applies to a person like Ramsay Snow and whether there are exceptions for kinslaying, but I'm throwing it out there for what it's worth. Roose Bolton seems too cautious a man to be assassinated by his own son.

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[quote name='grinachu' post='1327797' date='Apr 24 2008, 12.16']Thanks, those are all excellent points. I would point out that Roose Bolton killed Robb Stark himself when he decided to betray the Starks which is in keeping with the First Men's custom of doing your own killing. I don't know if this applies to a person like Ramsay Snow and whether there are exceptions for kinslaying, but I'm throwing it out there for what it's worth. Roose Bolton seems too cautious a man to be assassinated by his own son.[/quote]

I seem to remember that while doing your own killing is a First Men custom, Kinslaying is the ultimate no-no. While Roose is a cautious man you might argue that he may lower the defences around his son, perhaps thinking himself "protected" by the Kinslayer curse,

Edit: On a diffrent note, what's the diffrence between a starburst and a sunburst, appearancewise I mean? Edited by urizen

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grinachu,

Yes, that's why I figure it's likely Arnolf. But there's room for George to introduce other Karstarks, I suppose.

urizen,

I have no idea what the difference is, which is why I'm wondering if it's deliberately described as a "starburst" or not. The Karstark sunburst has always been just ... a sunburst. GRRM writing "starburst" might just be a slip on his part, or an indication that it's supposed to be someone who isn't a Karstark after all. Though if it is "starburst", I really will stick to the idea that it's a slip on George's part rather than his indicating it's some other house.

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[quote name='Ran' post='1327761' date='Apr 24 2008, 10.12']So now we know, I suppose, that the twisted old lord is a Karstark thanks to the sunburst on his cloak. Which really makes it seem likely that it's Arnolf, and that he's playing Stannis.[/quote]

Or is he playing the Boltons? Remember there were Karstark men alongside the Freys and Boltons at the Red Wedding - with arguably a much more understandable reason for participating in Robb and Catelyn's murders afterall Robb had their lord executed. With Harrion Karstark at that stage a prisoner of the Lannisters, Arnolf was arguably the highest ranked Karstark able to make such an agreement with Roose, so the current circumstances are that the Karstarks are at least openly supporting the Boltons as of the end of ASoS. So Arnolf Karstark seems to be exactly where where Roose and Ramsey believe him to be, though they are likely unaware that Stannis is even in the North at this stage let alone that him and Arnolf Karstark are talking.

What in hindsight also seems to imply this, is in the discussion between Jon and Stannis about the state of the Wall, the North and the kingdom (which incidently Arnolf Karstark is first mentioned in) Jon warns Stannis that a previous successful attempt to besiege the Dreadfort by one of the old Stark Kings took four years, yet Stannis appears noticely unconcerned by this. If Arnolf Karstark is offering to betray the Boltons for him, Stannis has good reason to feel so confident.

Finally Arnolf seems to have a fair bit to gain (at least on the surface) by offering to betray the Boltons to Stannis.

Firstly his position with the Boltons is not especially secure considering that their principal allies are the Lannisters and Freys. Remember Rickard Karstark had a son of Kevan Lannister and a grandson of Walder Frey (not to mention they were both Tywin Lannister's nephews) murdered in the prisons under Riverun. So the Karstarks aren't especially the favourite people serving the Boltons.

Secondly what Stannis is offering Arnolf is Lord Paramount of the North which is currently held by Roose Bolton who would obviously have to die (along with Ramsey) so Arnolf can feel secure in his new position. Quite a leap for a man who is merely the great-uncle and castellan to the current Lord Karstark (Harrion)! What would interesting to know about Arnolf morally is whether he is the kind of man who would have his great-nephew have an accident so that he can claim both Winterfell and Karhold?

Either way in this situation Arnolf Karstark can only betray the Boltons to Stannis as he is currently in public their man, the other way he simply stays loyal to them.

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I'm very dubious Arnolf Karstark could have carried out any agreements with Roose Bolton in relation to the Red Wedding after Harrion was captured at Duskendale, though. I don't know, the time scale seems all wrong, and I can't really see why any Karstark officer on the ground would prefer to follow Arnolf's command sent all the way from Karhold rather than negotiating such things himself as to what his understanding of the situation was.

That said, it's not actually clear that Karstark men were part of the attack, was it? The northmen who struck off the Smalljon's head and so on may just as well have been Dreadfort men -- I doubt the Karstarks have a monopoly on fur cloaks in the North.

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My impression of the timeline is slightly different than Tom's. In my view, Arnolf signs up with Stannis first, after Stannis has arrived in the North but before Tywin's death becomes commonly known. He realizes on some level that Stannis is most likely a losing proposition, but he feels he has no choice; Tywin Lannister will have his House out root and branch. Then Tywin dies, which gives him the flexibility to put out feelers to Ramsay Bolton and see about getting in on the winning side. He presumably has to make some offer to betray Stannis, but that's easily done.

Also, the most obvious reason to think that Ramsay is taking over Roose's position: he makes everybody call him Lord. His squires (Big and Little Walder), Reek, etc. People in Westeros don't just toss those titles around. Edited by The Fat Man

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[quote name='The Fat Man' post='1327967' date='Apr 24 2008, 10.12']Also, the most obvious reason to think that Ramsay is taking over Roose's position: he makes everybody call him Lord. His squires (Big and Little Walder), Reek, etc. People in Westeros don't just toss those titles around.[/quote]

BUT Ramsay is a lord in his own right now over Winterfell it was gifted to him after the RW, so his title is not out of place.

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[quote name='grinachu' post='1327789' date='Apr 24 2008, 06.09']The only two surviving Karstarks we know of are Arnolf and Harrion. Harrion is described as a fierce young man with a beard, so we can rule him out (although I would love to know where he is..). As for whether it is a starburst or a sunburst, I think Bronn can just tell us that by looking at the chapter. I agree it would seem odd to introduce a new northern house at this point since the North seems pretty well peopled with lords already, but if the word "starburst" is used, I can only imagine it would be used deliberately.[/quote]

That's not true Stannis tells us when he's making plans that Arnolf has many sons to succeed him as Lord of the North. Although, I wonder if any of these could be described as that old bald hunchbacks.

About the Starburst it could be another personal emblum where this Karstark is their Darkstar or Blackfish.

If it is Arnolf we have him playing both camps and he's betraying someone, Stannis attack on the Dredfort may have been a trap in itself lure his army there, have the Ramsay's might assembled already there then have the Karstarks stab him in the back and Stannis is traped in hostile territory on Bolton lands needing to cross their allies Umber and karstark to reach the safety of the wall.

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cybroleach,


Ramsay was legitimized, but I don't recall Winterfell being given to him anywhere. He's to marry the recognized Lady of Winterfell, of course, and that was indicated as of ASoS... but the main thing we saw regarding him after the Red Wedding was that Tommen signed a declaration to legitimize Ramsay.

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[quote name='The Fat Man' post='1327967' date='Apr 24 2008, 15.12']My impression of the timeline is slightly different than Tom's.[/quote]

There in lies the rub! We're all trying to work out what exactly is going on and we're only really going to get any real idea once the book's out and we can see how all these chapters relate to each other. Is Karstark playing Stannis, the Boltons or both of them? From what we've seen so far all three are entirely possible.

For the record having just re-read the Red Wedding chapter I concede the Northmen with the cloaks and axes were most likely men under Bolton. Still it doesn't exclude the possiblity that Arnolf Karstark first approached the Boltons 'off-stage' the big question is when... Edited by Tom O'Sevens

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I will say that the one thing that might make the Karstark men suspicious is the fact that Roose says that he kept them close to him. Some might think he could have used that time and contact to subvert him to him, pointing out that Robb killed Harrion's father and sent Harrion off on a mission that got him captured, and it could have been worse. Robb clearly has it out for the Karstarks, etc., and maybe we should do something about it...

OTOH, that could just be Roose indicating how loyal he is, thinking of the dangers Karhold men might present, and then he uses that to keep them hoodwinked as he plans to slaughter them along with all his other rivals.

In any case, if the former scenario happened, I do think it wasn't something negotiated with Arnolf or anyone else in Karhold. It was whoever Harrion left in charge over his men, I suppose.

The point others raised regarding Arnolf possibly playing both sides against the middle, or playing Stanns, are well taken. It's curious to see how a battle transpires, given that Stannis doesn't march on the Dreadfort directly as he at one point seems to have planned before Jon directs him to Deepwood Motte. Edited by Ran

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I think the main reasons that Ramsay might be planning to usurp his father is that he seems to be getting very comfortable with being Lord of the Dreadfort, and he is clearly ruthless with quite a bit of ambition. Sure he's en route to get Winterfell, but it's a burned castle with it's power shattered. He saw to that himself. If he feels he's gotten the garrison loyal enough to him, he might try something to ensure he gets the intact castle as well.

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I think he's not going to Winterfell. He's going to clear out Moat Cailin, to clear the way for that virgin bride of his to reach him. Hence the riding to war and all that.

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[quote name='Ran' post='1328050' date='Apr 24 2008, 11.07']cybroleach,


Ramsay was legitimized, but I don't recall Winterfell being given to him anywhere. He's to marry the recognized Lady of Winterfell, of course, and that was indicated as of ASoS... but the main thing we saw regarding him after the Red Wedding was that Tommen signed a declaration to legitimize Ramsay.[/quote]

I'll have to recheck, perhaps I was mistaking his implied Lordship after his marriage rather than the actual one gotten before.

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