AGOT Mafia Game 51

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1342550' date='May 5 2008, 10.21']I'll be re-reading Mullendore for awhile, and post some thoughts about him when I'm done.[/quote]Bracken, could you at least remove vote until your reread unless you are guilty? Can't it be that two guilties will jump on this train?
I haven't voted you this because of this possibility, could you return me the favor?

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1342557' date='May 5 2008, 10.26']Am I wrong about why you gave immunity to Garner?[/quote]

[quote]There was no option for immunity that was not suspicious, so it's best that it does not play a factor in the game today.[/quote]

True, but unfortunately it has to. Tomorrow if I'm still alive I can opt out.

[quote]Halo believed in your innocence so strongly that he was willing to bet the game on it.[/quote]

Yeah, that one's true :rolleyes:

[quote]The other option is that he is evil and he thinks Garner is most likely to join a voting block with him for two lynches.[/quote]

Will making said confession lead to me to getting lynched so I can finally leave this game? It's a tempting thing to claim, but unfortunately untrue.

Didn't you also leave out the theory that I'm now cult? :P

[House Clegane]

Sooo... it looks like there's still (at least) two killers out there. I want to hear who everyone thinks those two people are. It should be pretty easy for you as (unless I'm mistaken) I'm still VPI and you have a 2/3 chance of getting it right if you're innocent. Oh and on top of that, a case made for your own innocence would be appreciated from everyone too.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Grandison' post='1342566' date='May 5 2008, 09.33']Didn't you also leave out the theory that I'm not cult? :P[/quote]

I was really worried about your being a cult convert until there were two NKs. I don't think a cult can explain the double NKs. Besides, chances are that if there was a cult they would probably have at least two members here, which means endgame, especially if *you* were the OC. You would not have tried to convert Vyrwel, and she was not likely to be an FM, so she wouldn't die as theh result of a failed conversion.

Mullendore: Sorry, man. It's either you or Coldwater today. You're the counter-finder. I doubt you can make a case on Coldwater that would make me switch, but go ahead and try. You can make a case against Garner as being the last killer that Halo accidently protected, but we still need to lynch someone today. We can't afford not to. We have two lynches that must be used to give us the best chance to win. So, it's probably you today, and then either Garner or Coldwater tomorrow (from my POV).

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1342598' date='May 5 2008, 11.02']Mullendore: Sorry, man. It's either you or Coldwater today.[/quote]Is it my fault that the choice isn't me or Garner?
[quote]So, it's probably you today, and then either Garner or Coldwater tomorrow (from my POV).[/quote]From your POV, yes. From your POV you won't consider yourself?

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Mullendore' post='1342616' date='May 5 2008, 10.10']Is it my fault that the choice isn't me or Garner?
From your POV, yes. From your POV you won't consider yourself?[/quote]

I don't understand. You want me to make a case on myself for being guilty? Isn't that someone else's job?

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1342636' date='May 5 2008, 11.18']I don't understand. You want me to make a case on myself for being guilty?[/quote]I just want you not to vote me until making a case. Pretty please? With the sugar on the top?

[House Clegane]

Alright, worst case scenario right now is that the two evil factions are divided up 2/2 with me stuck in the middle. I think Swyft's kill last night was an obvious attempt by one team to eliminate the other evil faction (that or Gert was lying about lying); It remains to be seen if they were successful or not, however.

Anyway, lets assume worst case scenario: I vote so-and-so out, doesn't matter who is NKed tonight as either way the FM team with two players remaining wins. Now I'm not going to vote out Mullendore today because his role reveal wasn't forced and it makes more sense that, if evil, he's a symp rather than a FM. So that in mind my theoretical teams look like this:

Garner - FM or symp
Bracken - FM

and

Mullendore - symp
Coldwater - FM

Now on top of this Bracken has just made a very fatal move if innocent - he's put a vote on someone when votes really, really matter - if there are two evils left outside of Mullendore, you've just ensured that they win. All they would have to do is vote with you. With that in my mind, I think I favour a lynch of Bracken today over Coldwater.

I'm going to do a read through of my two symp suspects to see if it makes sense that they're protecting the FM I have them aligned with. Based on that, that's how I'm going to vote.

[House Clegane]

OK, I read through Mal... definately makes sense as symp to Coldwater. Now for Aly's turn.

[House Clegane]

Alright, I did a read through of Aly. Could make sense as a symp to Bracken, but the connection is not as strong. For the record I just read the last 20 or so posts of both symp suspects so there could be more of a connection further back that I'm just not seeing.

So this, I guess, is where my gut will have to play in. If Aly is evil her ability to play the role has vastly improved since I last played with her; I don't mean that to be insulting, just that I have to agree with Kat on this - she's not really playing how I'd expect her to play if evil. As an evil I'd normally expect her to fall under the Cerwyn's bible group of suspects which I don't think she does this game.

So yeah, I'm prepared to vote Coldwater today over Bracken, but before I do so I want everyone to post in the game.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Grandison' post='1342721' date='May 5 2008, 11.10']Now on top of this Bracken has just made a very fatal move if innocent - he's put a vote on someone when votes really, really matter - if there are two evils left outside of Mullendore, you've just ensured that they win. All they would have to do is vote with you. With that in my mind, I think I favour a lynch of Bracken today over Coldwater.[/quote]


[b]Unvote[/b]

Do you seriously think there are two evil factions left? I don't even think there are two evil [i]players[/i] left. What kind of game is that? I think you are going down the wrong path in trying to base your vote on perceived partnerships. Besides, from your POV, you probably lose this game if that were true. I think the best tactic is to lynch the single person most likely to be guilty today, and then lynch the person most likely to be guilty tomorrow.

Please re-read me carefully!!

[House Targaryen]

Umm, guys....you're supposed to post and vote and stuff. That's how the game is played.

There are 20 hours and 18 minutes left in the day.

[House Tyrell]

The problem is that if we're wrong today, there's only 3 people left tomorrow, and 2 votes to lynch. Which means that, with the current level of paranoia going on, the FM just has to wait until an innocent votes another innocent to jump on it and win the game.

As I see it, today is our last chance to win the game. And I'm really really lost at the moment. I want a torpedo cheat (if anybody remembers Age of Empires), because I have good reasons to suspect all of you. The other innocent(s) in here, if any, probably feel the same.

I hate endgames like this. :(
Can't we just all be friends? Or mutiny against WJ for doing this to us? Republics are the way of the future anyway.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Bracken' post='1342769' date='May 5 2008, 12.45'][b]Unvote[/b]

Do you seriously think there are two evil factions left? I don't even think there are two evil [i]players[/i] left. What kind of game is that? I think you are going down the wrong path in trying to base your vote on perceived partnerships. Besides, from your POV, you probably lose this game if that were true. I think the best tactic is to lynch the single person most likely to be guilty today, and then lynch the person most likely to be guilty tomorrow.

Please re-read me carefully!![/quote]

There's still at least one killing role left in the game, we know that. Do you truly think it's Mullendore? I just don't see him revealing as finder if he was FM and if you look at his posts it does appear like he's protecting Coldwater... unless someone else wants to make the case for Coldwater's innocence, because I don't see it.

Part of me just wants to get this game over with regardless of outcome. Still, I'll wait for Coldwater to appear before I vote.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Grandison' post='1343090' date='May 5 2008, 14.30']There's still at least one killing role left in the game, we know that. Do you truly think it's Mullendore? I just don't see him revealing as finder if he was FM and if you look at his posts it does appear like he's protecting Coldwater... unless someone else wants to make the case for Coldwater's innocence, because I don't see it.

Part of me just wants to get this game over with regardless of outcome. Still, I'll wait for Coldwater to appear before I vote.[/quote]

I am still working on the re-read of Malc, it is taking forever.

Answer me this question: How much do you trust Garner? Are you willing to bet the game on her being innocent?

[House Wythers]

I don't really see how Mullendore could be symping me. Whilst I agree that he hasn't appeared pissed off at me like a lot of people, I'd say he's been more neutral than anything; I agree he has made a few vaguely favourable posts towards me, but no more than other unconnected people have.

I'm assuming that Garner is evil and possibly Mullendore too. I would therefore assume that they are the last two evil players, and that they're opposing. Is there really likely to be as many as four evils left, like in Grandison's post? In any case it'd only be three since I'm not an FM; and I'm not a symp either.

If Mullendore is believable and innocent, then I guess that Bracken could be evil, though I'm far from sure on that.

I would therefore assume that Grandison is VPI although he could be playing one hell of a game.

Shame we can't lynch Garner :( I suppose the only other choice is Mullendore, though if I had to choose between Bracken and Grandison I'd actually pick Grandison.

*horrible feeling that I've missed someone out*

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Coldwater' post='1343223' date='May 5 2008, 16.31']I don't really see how Mullendore could be symping me. Whilst I agree that he hasn't appeared pissed off at me like a lot of people, I'd say he's been more neutral than anything; I agree he has made a few vaguely favourable posts towards me, but no more than other unconnected people have.

I'm assuming that Garner is evil and possibly Mullendore too. I would therefore assume that they are the last two evil players, and that they're opposing. Is there really likely to be as many as four evils left, like in Grandison's post? In any case it'd only be three since I'm not an FM; and I'm not a symp either.

If Mullendore is believable and innocent, then I guess that Bracken could be evil, though I'm far from sure on that.

I would therefore assume that Grandison is VPI although he could be playing one hell of a game.

Shame we can't lynch Garner :( I suppose the only other choice is Mullendore, though if I had to choose between Bracken and Grandison I'd actually pick Grandison.

*horrible feeling that I've missed someone out*[/quote]

Really? You would pick Grandison as evil over me? Interesting. If Grandison were evil, who do you think his partners might have been? Or do you think he might be a Serial Killer? It seems like an impossible risk for him to be anything other than a Symp. and one who has a death wish. I suppose he would have to be symping Garner based on his immunity thing today. I'm having a hard time seeing it, though. I can't explain why he survived, but he certainly expected to die early in the game. That is not the play of an FM, to me.

[House Ashford]

Re-read of Mullendore:

[quote name=' Post #1099']I think I have to explain Garner why I am not easy target.
Well, Garner, I am not usually a person who presents new information, I am a person who works with information available and divides it into shit and diamonds. I am rather good in this.
Also, as innocent I usually have much support from such players as WJ and Kat, who know my playstyle ideally and almost never would allow lynching innocent me. So, attacking me means confrontation not only with me, but with that players (Kat, in this case) also. Is it enough?[/quote]

Prior to this post, Mullendore was staying pretty low. He took few positions, and barely posted at all in the first 1000 posts on the board. Around 923 he pops up and says he not impressed by much and doesn't buy the cases. A few posts later he says he wants to check the player list to see whom we have forgotten. Ironic since it is Mullendore who has not been discussed by hardly anyone in the first half of the game. The few times he shows up, it is generally to be disregarded by someone as a suspect.

Post #940 - lists almost the entire player list and suggests that we lynch the person who will give us the best CF info. Very helpful.

Post #953 - joins the Sarsfield lynch based on the case made by Royce. No further explanation. Interestingly, the lynch train is Royce, Mullendore and Yarwyck.

Post #977 wants to know why Harclay wants to lynch Royce ahead of Sarsfield. In my view, Mullendore may be worried that Harclay has a finder result which explains why she wants to switch to Royce all of a sudden after she was gung-ho on Sarsfield the prior day. Not damning evidence, but possible. Yarwyck attacks Royce, sure, but on a day when Royce stood little or no chance of being lynched, plus it brings some level of suspicion on both of them which makes them poor NK targets from the opposing evil faction. Later, Mullendore false reveals as a finder to try and save a true FM partner, not a symp. [u]Keep in mind that if Mullendore did fake reveal, he has an undisclosed power at this point. [/u]
Post #1091 - first potential symp of coldwater. he wants to put off lynch of coldwater until tomorrow, but for now he wants to concentrate on Sarsfield lynch.

Now we get to the section where Mullendore says he is a difficult person to lynch because people like Kat and WJ tend to come to his defense. This is a classic appeal to authority in my mind. Yarwyck tries to jump in with a lame defense and say that no, there is a difference between saying don't attack me or my big brothers will beat you up versus saying people don't attack me because they know about my big brothers. Lame, lame, lame defense. I think it is meant to intimidate anyone thinking about bringing a case against him. [u]Sure enough, Mullendore has never faced a serious threat in the game until he counter-revealed as a finder, and he STILL is under the radar for many players after that.[/u] Kat gets fixated on Garner, which is odd considering that Gert did everything possible to avoid lynching Garner the next day.

Post #1112 - tells Garner that no one will join a lynch against Mullendore, so drop it. Look for other suspects, or else lynch Sarsfield.

Yarwyck continues his defense of Mullendore, but denies it is a defense. Accuses me of misrepresenting the situtuation. Then he suggests this might just be plain old Malc when Dondarrian confirms that Malc is not acting in a clearly innocent manner based on past experience.

Read post #1141 by Kat about her reaction to Mullendore's twisted claim:

[quote]Mullendore, your argument is really twisted and hard to understand. I don't think you're a killer, but I'm confused. Were you trying to use the fact that I came to your protection as an argument against MY OWN argument that Royce was evil because he was going after you for what I considered nitpicky things? I mean, that kind of relies on Royce knowing who you were, and then going after you because you were doing suspicious things, rather than just being yourself.

To me it looks like you're throwing yourself in front or Royce in defense. Which is weird.

*reconsiders who could be a symp*[/quote]

#1249 - [quote]Here again.
Firstly, we don't have four PI but two at most. I see absolutely no reason to count Footly and Dondy as PI.
Secondly, Footly is quite possbly Sars' partner.
Thirdly, I am not ready to vote for now, but my tier 1 are Coldwater, Royce, Footly and Garner.[/quote]

So, is he symping Coldwater? or no? He may be looking for an opportunity to diver the lynch to someone else, but he can't avoid listing Royce in this list because the sentiment is already building for a Royce lynch and Kat has already suggested Malc might be symping.

#1256 - paints yarwyck as a symp at worst, but can't figure out who he might by symping.

#1277 - another meek defense of Royce. Says Kats theory is all wrong based on meta of Carpe which only Malc seems to know. Suggests Royce is a baddie from another team at worst. I know this is a fine point, but the important thing here is to discredit Kat's theory, not prove Royce is evil. He can come back later and work on the other aspect if he can get this lynch train derailed for the moment.

<skipping discussion between Garner and Mullendore over meta-gaming>

#1329 - Mullendore's reaction to mexal saying Malc is not acting normal.

When Royce and Yarwyck have two votes each, Malc joins the train on Royce.

Spars with Dondarrian over whether Footly is likely innocent or if Malc had previously suspected Royce

#1353 - Halo noting Malc is acting suspicious. [color="#FF0000"](So far we have Kat, mexal, Halo, and Aly thinking Malc is acting abnormal)[/color]
# 1357 - Response to Dondarrian who was not under the impression that Malc wanted to lynch Roycec. [quote]I want to lynch him. Today I named him as one from my Tier 1. I just don't want him to be lynched for reasons which clear my other suspects. You know, it's not the last lynch of the game.[/quote]

A long absence ensues. No one talks about Mullendore.

#1522 - Mullendore's counter-reveal:

[quote]I am not a guard.
I am finder.
Night 1, no investigation.
Night 2, Footly: guilty.
Night 3, Harclay: innocent.
[b]Garner.[/b]

ETA: and, yes, I had two shots only.[/quote]

[color="#FF0000"]Why does he jump on Garner when their finder results don't conflict?[/color]

I have to cut this short as I need to do some RL stuff for a bit. I will be back as soon as I can, probably 2-3 hours. I wasn't able to get through the whole thread. There is probably more from the last 15 pages or so that I didn't get to.

[House Tyrell]

Bracken, you're really trying to got a substantial answer out of Coldwater? Of all people?
I don't suppose you want to reveal your power today?

You suppose Halo's been symping all those people he's been protecting, then? Or just me? :P

I don't like putting my arse in the line of fire. As a baddie, I like being rather quiet and inconspicuous. I don't think I've ever fake claimed anything as a baddie. (True, I have fake claimed pretty much anything, but I was innocent when doing it. Don't ask. That was during the period when I was crazier than Halo and Piper together)

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Garner' post='1343323' date='May 5 2008, 17.35']Bracken, you're really trying to got a substantial answer out of Coldwater? Of all people?
I don't suppose you want to reveal your power today?

You suppose Halo's been symping all those people he's been protecting, then? Or just me? :P

I don't like putting my arse in the line of fire. As a baddie, I like being rather quiet and inconspicuous. I don't think I've ever fake claimed anything as a baddie. (True, I have fake claimed pretty much anything, but I was innocent when doing it. Don't ask. That was during the period when I was crazier than Halo and Piper together)[/quote]

I don't put any stock in Halo being evil. I was just thinking out why Coldwater would choose to trust me over the consensus VPI. I mean, there *are* reasons based on his surrvival, but not great reasons.

I want to hear from Halo again before I will consider revealing. he is sort of the lynchpin to this thing.