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AGOT Mafia Game 51


House Targaryen

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It is day 4.

10 players remain: Bracken, Coldwater, Dondarrion, Garner, Grandison, Harclay, Mullendore, Swyft, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

4 votes for Yarwyck ( Garner, Harclay, Grandison, Vyrwel)
4 votes for Garner ( Yarwyck, Mullendore, Swyft, Coldwater)

2 players have not voted: Bracken, Dondarrion.

There are 5 hours and 50 minutes left in the day.
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[quote name='House Blackfyre' post='1341114' date='May 3 2008, 18.20']No posts in the last 2 hours? With the day winding down? Seriously? :mad:

There are 3 hours and 50 minutes left in the day.[/quote]


Don't look at me, I just got back. BTW Iron Man is not quite as bad as I thought it would be... I almost actually enjoyed it :P

I'm hoping Mal will come back and answer my questions.

Or maybe someone else could: Am I just overly paranoid or can anyone else conceive of a scenario where Kat and Gert are evil? I mean we've had both finder claimants clear them and a quite-possible FM say they took no action on night two. So why do I still suspect them? :unsure:
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I can see us having a total vote split here and going to night because of it... not looking so good for the innocents right now :(

Bracken where are you? Make sense of things for me. I think you're the person I trust most right now :unsure:
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Halo, you didn't get the joke :P
It's just a very harmless cat in the pic. Honest.

The only way Kat and Gert can be evil is if they're paired symps. Or Kat could be an FM allowed to talk to the symp.

I do see a stalemate coming... all current voters are unlikely to shift, Dondarrion can't decide and nobody knows where Bracken is...
If you're not out of action, I'd appreciate a bit of help tomorrow, if you know what I mean.
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Alright guys.
It's 2.30 am, and I'm going to bed now.

Innocents, take your decision carefully. Don't believe the one who shouts loudest. Look beyond the surface, at cases and arguments. Please.

Good night.


*cue numerous people showing up and spamming the thread about 30 seconds after I post this...*
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Coldwater .... :o

And I'm also very upset with Dondarrion for not laying down a vote when he knows he's gonna be gone for a while.

Swyft, while frustrating, I can see more. Well, mainly because I don't trust her.

We need a lynch. We need one, I know, but I can't budge from Yarwyck. I'd rather have Coldwater alive as my suspicions of him nosedived than lynch him. Sort of. I'd still like to lynch him for being perplexing as f@ck.
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If Yarwyck is an FM, he could very well be the last one on his team. Lynching him could mean the difference between [s]1 kill tonight and no kills.[/s] 2 kills and 1 kill tonight. It's no guarantee obviously, but I feel pretty sure that leaving Yarwyck alone today is gonna cream us.

eta: fixed number stuff
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Ok, here's why we should lynch Yarwyck even though Garner could be lying:

1) If Garner's evil, she has the problem of not knowing two roles in the game still-namely, those of Bracken and Swyft. If one of Bracken and/or Swyft is a guard who blocked Garner on one of the last three nights, they could have easily proven her wrong. Additionally, there could be someone else with a role who could have disproven Garner's claim that she made 3 investigations on the last 3 nights. Lying is therefore a big risk for her.

2) This false claim is not the kind of thing evil Aly does. I've seen evil Aly a lot, and she doesn't act like this. Hell, I've been her partner a few times as evil, and she was much more indecisive than she's being now. She tends to recede into the shadows and let people lynch each other, not fake a finder claim (with two evils, no less), plotting to manipulate me from day 1. Because you realize that's what she would have had to do, right? I mean, decide on day 1 after my alt was revealed that manipulating me into lynching one of my lesser suspects was a great idea, and then to get on my good side by confirming that I had been right all along? Come on. No offense to Aly, but that's like...WJ-level manipulation. Even I don't do that shit.

3) If Garner's evil, she has no partners left. She can't win when she's one of four people left, which means we don't have to lynch her today. Also if she's evil, her most likely partner would have been Tarbeck, and we may not have lynched anyone from the other team by now, which means that unless she wanted to be really behind in numbers, she'd have to get a member of their evil team lynched already. BUT, she wouldn't want them both dead because she'd need their help surviving to the last day--she needs their night kills. This means EITHER Royce OR Yarwyck would have to be evil, EVEN IF Garner is evil too.

For the innocents, it benefits us to have that >50% of lynching a bad guy today. We virtually have the game clinched, and by not lynching Yarwyck today, you're throwing away a near certain win.

I suspect anyone who's holding up today's lynch of being evil or illogical beyond help. I don't want to say which of those I think Coldwater is, because it's not polite. Everyone else--evil.
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[quote name='House Grandison' post='1340874' date='May 3 2008, 12.45']Mal, is there any scenario where you could see Vrywel and Harclay guilty?[/quote]No.
I am ready to switch to Yarwyck, in the interests of lynch. It's three faction, and I know nothing about Yarwyck alighnment.
But we should lynch Garner tomorrow.
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[quote name='House Harclay' post='1341179' date='May 3 2008, 20.11']1) If Garner's evil, she has the problem of not knowing two roles in the game still-namely, those of Bracken and Swyft. If one of Bracken and/or Swyft is a guard who blocked Garner on one of the last three nights, they could have easily proven her wrong. Additionally, there could be someone else with a role who could have disproven Garner's claim that she made 3 investigations on the last 3 nights. Lying is therefore a big risk for her.[/quote]
Perhaps her main reason was to force the guard to reveal?
[quote]3) If Garner's evil, she has no partners left.[/quote]But why? Why she can't be paired with Swyft or Dondarrion or Bracken?
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[b]Yarwyck[/b]

I have done two re-reads of Garner, and I feel she has remained consistent throughout. I think she has been helpful and productive in her posts. She is not particularly distracting or contradictory. The finder reveal post is troubling to me for the sole reason that my read on Yarwyck has been innocent/symp. A finder result should come back innocent on a symp, so Garner's result contradicts my sense of the game. I have been thinking about this all day trying to reconcile it. I came back to the thread tonight intending to vote for Yarwyck, and Kat's post basically cemented it for me. Lying is a risk for her if she is FM. If Aly is FM and has a partner FM still alive, there is no reason for them to take this risk. I don't think Aly was lynchable before the reveal, and it would be a foolish risk to jump onto the stage like that. I'm not sure I quite follow Kat's 2nd point, but I sift it down to mean: 1) I know Aly, and 2) this is not evil Aly. I'm not sure why Garner can't have any partners left, but I would be perfectly happy to lynch Yarwyck today and Garner eventually, and feel satisfied that we got 1 evil amongst the two of them. I guess it comes down to the fact that I trust Garner more than I trust Mullendore.

Kat, if there are 2 NKs tonight, does that mean that Garner is lying? I'm worried that we would be down to 7 with an absolute need to finish off one evil faction or the other with our next lynch, otherwise we are toast.
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It is day 4.

10 players remain: Bracken, Coldwater, Dondarrion, Garner, Grandison, Harclay, Mullendore, Swyft, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

5 votes for Yarwyck ( Garner, Harclay, Grandison, Vyrwel, Bracken)
4 votes for Garner ( Yarwyck, Mullendore, Swyft, Coldwater)

1 players have not voted: Dondarrion.

There are 52 minutes left.


ETA - Meh....not going to bother signing into Blackfyre to fix this. :P
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[quote name='House Grandison' post='1341118' date='May 3 2008, 19.28']I can see us having a total vote split here and going to night because of it... not looking so good for the innocents right now :(

Bracken where are you? Make sense of things for me. I think you're the person I trust most right now :unsure:[/quote]

no, it's not looking real good. If we get two more NKs tonight, I think we are toast. We would have to not only kill an FM with our lynch tomorrow, but we would absolutely have to eliminate a faction. It would be a shot in the dark.

I don't know why you want *me* to make sense of things for you. I have like 5 games under my belt so far. You're probably better off throwing darts.
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So we're waiting on Mal? You said you'd switch, so do it.

Actually - anyone who wants to switch is more than welcome too :P And Dondarrion ... well, I don't expect you back, but damn it. A vote would have been nice.'

What I expect is that if we kill Yarwyck there will be only 1 kill tonight. I also don't expect Mallendore to put a vote down on Yarwyck. I could be wrong on both counts.
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