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House Targaryen

AGOT Mafia Game 51

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[quote name='House Garner' post='1341879' date='May 4 2008, 17.40']Nobody said the game would be balanced. If WJ said the truth about totally randomizing roles and factions, everything could happen.[/quote]
WJ is modding this game. The game is going to be as close to balanced as it can possibly get.

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Problem is, I trust Malc and Garner both more than I trust unDon and Swyft. If I take out Malc and you lynch Garner, well ... that's not better from my point of view. Even if one/both finders are lying - doesn't mean they are a killer. And if I take out one finder and you lynch the other - well, you two are still alive and wreaking havoc cause, face it - even if we agree that unDon is tomorrow's lynch, we have a hard time following through.

I am still going off of the theory that Royce was partnered with either Swyft or unDon so I want you both out. The double finder claim worries me. Coldwater worries me. Bracken worries me - but they are all lower on my priority list.

I really would like to see some input by Halo, as he is the one that I am trusting most at this point.

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[quote name='House Vyrwel' post='1341900' date='May 4 2008, 17.18']Problem is, I trust Malc and Garner both more than I trust unDon and Swyft. If I take out Malc and you lynch Garner, well ... that's not better from my point of view. Even if one/both finders are lying - doesn't mean they are a killer. And if I take out one finder and you lynch the other - well, you two are still alive and wreaking havoc cause, face it - even if we agree that unDon is tomorrow's lynch, we have a hard time following through.[/quote]

It doesn't matter. One of them is evil. You can trust them all you want but that doesn't change the fact that they both claimed the role with different investigation numbers. That means the chance of one of them lying is exponentially higher than the chance that I or Swift is a FM. Even if they are a symp, they still constitute one member of a voting block. If you take anything from the previous game, take the fact that symps are just as dangerous as FM.

If you honestly believe that I would go out of my way to defend my partner that vigorously fully knowing that there is probably a CF role and finder role out there, then well, kill me. I won't be able to change your opinion of my playing abilities so I rather just die and stop all the "havoc" I seem to be causing by discussing the most logical play for this game day.

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I'm going out to dinner. I'll be back in a few hours. When I get back (if I'm still alive), I'm going to make a decision on who I think is the most likely to be lying of the finders and vote them. I can not see any other way for us to go today. I will not be around for the deadline tonight.

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You want Gert to take out one of the finders and lynch the other one, right? That way you are sure to get at least 2 innocents dead. 2 innocent lives is a high price to pay for one guilty, don't you think?
Next night, the evil faction is going to kill another one. Do you think there will be enough left to win the game, after that?

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[quote name='House Garner' post='1341913' date='May 4 2008, 17.34']You want Gert to take out one of the finders and lynch the other one, right? That way you are sure to get at least 2 innocents dead. 2 innocent lives is a high price to pay for one guilty, don't you think?
Next night, the evil faction is going to kill another one. Do you think there will be enough left to win the game, after that?[/quote]

Running out the door now but I just caught this.

What are you talking about? Gert dies the day that her partner died. She takes someone with her. If she takes me, she's taking 2 innocents and then we're lynching one who could be the third innocent. So instead of 2 innocents for an evil, it'll be 3 innocents for no evil with the next day revolving around lynching the other finder. That sounds like an absolutely brilliant plan :rolleyes:

Seriously, think this through.

Now I'm gone.

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[quote name='House Vyrwel' post='1341900' date='May 4 2008, 18.18']Even if one/both finders are lying - doesn't mean they are a killer.[/quote]
...Uh, so they're what? Lying [i]innocents[/i]? Both of them? One of them is evil. They may be a symp, but evil is still evil.

[quote name='House Garner' post='1341913' date='May 4 2008, 18.34']You want Gert to take out one of the finders and lynch the other one, right? That way you are sure to get at least 2 innocents dead. 2 innocent lives is a high price to pay for one guilty, don't you think?
Next night, the evil faction is going to kill another one. Do you think there will be enough left to win the game, after that?[/quote]
Yes, that is exactly what I want. And no, we will get at least one innocent dead. We don't know if you or Mullendore are innocent.

For the record, two innocent lives are actually a more than fair price for one guilty. Three innocents is roughly equivalent to one FM insofar as balancing goes (discounting roles, and since we're all roled, I'm discounting roles). Take, for example, a vanilla eight-player game. Two FMs, six innocents. You don't even need to think about it.

Think of it this way. If she ninjas me or DonD (and between the two of us, there is a significant chance that both of us are innocent) as opposed Garner/Mulc (where there's at least a 50% chance of either of you being evil, and a slight chance that both of you are evil), then she's very likely to take down two innocents. We'll lynch either you or Mulc, and let's say we get the latter end of the 50%. We're down three innocents. FM's take down another.

I understand you want to live in interests of your team whatever your team may be, but the highest chances of us nabbing an evil lies between you and Mullendore. I don't see that we have the option to lynch anyone else, and I don't think Vyrwel should pass up the chance to let us take down both of you if we can.

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Nice calculation..unfortunately it only works if you and Don are innocent.

In the best case, we get 1 innocent and 2 baddies dead, in the worst, 3 innocents.
At the beginning of the game, we can allow trading innocents for baddies 3/1, but it's getting towards endgame and numbers matter.
imho, the best way to get the highest number of baddies would be if 2 out of Swyft, Don, Bracken and Coldwater die today.
The FM can have me tonight, I'm too burned out, confused and tired to think straight anyway. :sick:


Anybody else have the nagging suspicion that Halo is evil and sitting somewhere laughing his arse off? Yeah, I'm paranoid, why do you ask?

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My issue is that this is a crucial day.

I'm going out today taking someone with me. You lynch, then someone gets killed tonight. That's down 4, not 3 as you are saying. That means that there are only 4 alive tomorrow. Pretty scary, huh?

I feel that I need to do what I think is right to win the game, and I think unDon or Swyft is a killer. I feel that Garner or Malc are more likely to be symps. I know, symps are evil too, but they are not murdering evil.

I'd also kind of like to know what Swyft and Bracken's roles are. I know you've both said you don't want to reveal yet, but I think it's time we get all our cards on the table.

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[quote name='House Garner' post='1341927' date='May 4 2008, 18.58']The FM can have me tonight, I'm too burned out, confused and tired to think straight anyway. :sick:[/quote]
I'm curious.

What makes you think the FM will kill you? [i]You?[/i] You're no threat to them. Half of us are suspicious of you. If Vyrwel dies, then you're likely staring at me, DonD, and Mulledore in the face tomorrow--and we've all stated that we'd be perfectly content to lynch you. That's a pretty solid voting block. Trust me, you'll live through the night.

[quote name='House Vyrwel' post='1341929' date='May 4 2008, 19.05']I'd also kind of like to know what Swyft and Bracken's roles are. I know you've both said you don't want to reveal yet, but I think it's time we get all our cards on the table.[/quote]
That is too damned bad.

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She will not be staring at you and unDon because at least one of you will be dead :) Other than that - yeah, she'll live.

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I know..I never get nightkilled..nobody takes me serious enough.
But the FM faction also knows that it's all about numbers now, and they know I'm not on their team...

You do realise you're pretty much shouting out "I'm evil", don't you? Conscience playing up? A lot of criminals apparently subconsciously yearn to be caught...

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[quote name='House Vyrwel' post='1341929' date='May 4 2008, 19.05']I'm going out today taking someone with me. You lynch, then someone gets killed tonight. That's down 4, not 3 as you are saying. That means that there are only 4 alive tomorrow. Pretty scary, huh?

I feel that I need to do what I think is right to win the game, and I think unDon or Swyft is a killer. I feel that Garner or Malc are more likely to be symps. I know, symps are evil too, but they are not murdering evil.[/quote]
I think you worry too much. Scary is far from the word I'd use--[i]exciting[/i] maybe. (For the record, I did insinuate four when I said the FMs would take out another, though in hindsight, I did not expressly say the number four.) Just take someone down with you, no one's going to hang you if you make the wrong choice.

From my point of view, in the whole unDon/Swyft thing, there is already only a 50% chance of you hitting a killer. If you're curious about roles, then I will say that mine is still potentially useful (lawl) while if there is only one FM team left, unDon's is not. ...Besides for the whole coming back from the dead thing, which I've gotta admit is pretty handy.

If you're worried about numbers, then I'm surprised you're not worried about symps. A voting block is a voting block. If they're symps, they have masters. If we're down four when we begin tomorrow, then we've only got four players left. If they're symps, and their FMs are still alive, [i]then we've lost the game[/i]. This is [i]not[/i] the time to disregard the symps as a lesser threat.

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I very likely won't even survive to nightfall after you're gone as you're pretty much the last one willing to believe me...
ah well..I'm sure spoilers will be fun.

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Anyway, I'm going to bed now. Gert, I don't envy your decision...I'm afraid it looks pretty bad for the innocents right now.

see you all on the other side, I guess...

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It is day 5.

8 players remain: Bracken, Coldwater, Dondarrion, Garner, Grandison, Mullendore, Swyft, Vyrwel.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

1 vote for Dondarrion ( Coldwater)
1 vote for Swyft ( Garner)
1 vote for Garner ( Mullendore)
1 vote for Vyrwel ( Dondarrion)
1 vote for Bracken ( Swyft)

3 players have not voted: Bracken, Grandison, Vyrwel.


9 hours and 20 minutes left.

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I don't want this to drag out, but I still want to hear from Halo and Bracken. I'd like to see how they stand since it looks unlikely that we are going to agree on a lynch candidate :rolleyes:

Plus Garner left her vote on Mullendore which doesn't help at all. Thanks.

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