House Velaryon Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 My 2nd choice would probably be Lone Starr. becuase he seemingly just flip-flopped on testing WJ. [quote name=' Lone Starr #60'][quote name=' Dark Helmet @ Apr 23 2008' date=' 06.56'] Awww... there goes my nonexistent master plan! Test again tomorrow then. We have two chances anyway.[/quote] Yep. That is the way it often goes [/quote] And then, [quote name=' Lone Starr #78']I don't really think it necesary to re-investigate WJ. It comesdown to trying to second guess the OC, but during the night we clearly stated the intention was to retest him. He would have been the worse choice of victim as he would be a very likely immediate loss. eta: My second choice is the Colonel[/quote] Yeah, go ahead and say it's not a true flip-flop because he wasn't taking a firm position in the first quote. To me, it is still a flip-flop in spirit. If we re-test WJ and he comes up guilty, then my next choice would be someone who opposed the strategy. Btw, you would have been my 2nd choice for a N1 convert if I was the OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326268' date='Apr 23 2008, 08.57']It could take us 3 days to find the OC, and by that time, we might be already down to half innocents. Besides, if we did get a guilty result from a test on Day 2, how would we know that was the OC and not the convert? Our only choice, under your plan, is to spend 7 investigations to root out the OC, and then go back and try and get the converts. The problems is that with so few players in the game, we might already be at 3 converts and 3 innos by the time we start looking for converts. The bad guys can convert every night. Yes, I realize that we have a finder to use, but if they are the conversion target on N1, or N2, then we are screwed. What if the finder gets converted and then falsely reveals their results? Personally, I would take the finder results better on D2, than on D3.[/quote] Umm...your plan is horrible. Let me ask you a few very simple questions. You don't want to go after the OC, correct? So you want to go after the night 1 convert, correct? Who do we currently know more about? The OC or the night 1 convert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Princess Vespa' post='1326335' date='Apr 23 2008, 08.38']What I want to know is who you want to test today. That's the important thing for now. It's nice to know who we're going after tomorrow but that doesn't help us today. So, who's your first choice and why?[/quote] Anybody not WJ, really. I had a massive case of bad vibes on you and Barf yesterday, but it's not like I'd be able to build a sensible case off of that. -Shabba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326336' date='Apr 23 2008, 10.39']My 2nd choice would probably be Lone Starr. becuase he seemingly just flip-flopped on testing WJ. Yep. That is the way it often goes And then, Yeah, go ahead and say it's not a true flip-flop because he wasn't taking a firm position in the first quote. To me, it is still a flip-flop in spirit. If we re-test WJ and he comes up guilty, then my next choice would be someone who opposed the strategy. Btw, you would have been my 2nd choice for a N1 convert if I was the OC.[/quote] go ahead and test me if you like. I am not OC nor ws I converted. I already explained this. Making it obvious that you will test WJ during the night should have kept him from being converted the first night. I am well aware this won't happen a second time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 Right, I'll out as Masonity, and state i'm at work (home in 2 hours) so can't post a lot. I wouldn't CI the finder though. If he was converted last night, they can "innocent" the OC and make the two guiltys "CI" for the day. As for WJ, i'd say he's tomorrow's first test, not todays. I wouldn't mind testing[b] Vespa[/b], purely on the fact that if Vespa's guilty, chances are WJ is too, hense the "Don't retest WJ"... Of course, I don't have a strong fix on anyone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326304' date='Apr 23 2008, 09.15']I think a better strategy is to reinvestigate WJ with the 1st test, see if the finder will reveal. Then we will have as many as 3CIs (WJ, finder, finder result). We will know that 2 of the remaining 4 are guilty. Those odds seem better to me.[/quote] Explain how that's any different than testing somebody other than me with the first test? It's still 3 CI, right (assuming the person we test isn't the one investigated by the Finder)? Plus the added bonus of knowing that I wasn't the OC. So we have 4 people who aren't the OC and 3 who aren't the night 1 conversion. Pretty obvious that is a better situation than 3 people who aren't the OC and 3 who aren't the night 1 conversion. I'm not saying I think the Finder should necessarily reveal (though it is an option). I'm simply pointing out the [i]obvious[/i] flaw in your plan. [quote name='Sandurz']If we nail a converted WJ, or the finder has identified a guilty player, then we are staying ahead in the game, and keeping the cult from getting a numbers advantage.[/quote] If we nail [i]any[/i] ASS (hahaha), we are ahead of the game. I still have no clue why you think I'm more likely to be evil than somebody else. You are assuming I was the convert, but you aren't saying why. And the simple reality is that I wasn't the convert, so all your plan will do is set us back an investigation. Are you really missing the obvious logic here? Or are you just paranoid about me after the last game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Yoghurt' post='1326342' date='Apr 23 2008, 09.42']Umm...your plan is horrible. Let me ask you a few very simple questions. You don't want to go after the OC, correct? So you want to go after the night 1 convert, correct? Who do we currently know more about? The OC or the night 1 convert?[/quote] I don't want to go after the N1 convert necessarily, even though I do think you would have made a good conversion choice. But I do think that we should maintain you as a CI today. Shabba's plan of re-testing you tomorrow, would probably be okay as a compromise. Okay, big shot, if my plan is so horrible, explain how we are going to win with *your* plan. We test two more people today and get two more innocent results, where does that leave us? A: starting D3 with 3 cult players. They are perfectly capable of influencing the next couple investigations away from the OC until the very llast investigation. If the OC is smart, they have chosen converts from the people we have already tested. Since the declared strategy is to root out the OC and the only way to definitively do that is with 7 tests, the cult is gauranteed to survive into Day 4. There is a good chance that they will have 3 converts and one dead OC by that time. You are relying on us getting lucky with a test, the OC being dumb enough to not realize that his voting bloc will get discovered unless he converts the players already tested, or the finder being able to reveal before they get converted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326336' date='Apr 23 2008, 15.39']If we re-test WJ and he comes up guilty, then my next choice would be someone who opposed the strategy. Btw, you would have been my 2nd choice for a N1 convert if I was the OC.[/quote] Who would have been your first choice? I just previewed but I don't want to respond to stuff in this post cause I haven't read it yet. Give me a minute. (This post has been long in the making) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Yoghurt' post='1326359' date='Apr 23 2008, 09.49']Explain how that's any different than testing somebody other than me with the first test? It's still 3 CI, right (assuming the person we test isn't the one investigated by the Finder)? Plus the added bonus of knowing that I wasn't the OC. So we have 4 people who aren't the OC and 3 who aren't the night 1 conversion. Pretty obvious that is a better situation than 3 people who aren't the OC and 3 who aren't the night 1 conversion. I'm not saying I think the Finder should necessarily reveal (though it is an option). I'm simply pointing out the [i]obvious[/i] flaw in your plan. If we nail [i]any[/i] ASS (hahaha), we are ahead of the game. I still have no clue why you think I'm more likely to be evil than somebody else. You are assuming I was the convert, but you aren't saying why. And the simple reality is that I wasn't the convert, so all your plan will do is set us back an investigation. Are you really missing the obvious logic here? Or are you just paranoid about me after the last game?[/quote] I really wish you would stop being so condescending and insulting with your posts. You can disagree with someone without saying that their idea is "horrible" or that there are [i]obvious[/i] flaws in their plan, as if they are a complete fucktard. I really, really don't like it when you do that. It is different because I think you would be a good choice for conversion. Will someone please come out and explain why WJ is *not* a good choice for conversion? I would have converted him or mexal in a heartbeat and I wouldn't have thought twice about it. I certainly did not feel there was overwhelming support for re-investigating WJ. If anything, there was WJ's own post against the idea during the night, possibly before the conversion choice was made. Under your plan, I would not consider you CI on D2 because you would have made a tempting N1 conversion. If we re-test you, then you are CI. If the finder reveals, I would find it more believable today becuase the odds of the OC having converted the finder last night are not good, but they improve with each passing day. So, if we are ever going to believe the finder, today is the day. Therefore, we would only have 1 CI (the first investigation) to rely on when making the 2nd test on D2. An ideal compromise, might be to test someone else with the D2 1st test, see if the finder will reveal, and then we might have 1 CI, and 3 PIs. (D2 1st test, and WJ, Finder and Finder result). Those are good odds as well. I am not paranoid about you, but you expect everyone to always trust you and follow your plan whether you are innocent or guilty. This is not about *you*. I would have advocated the same strategy no matter who was the D1 test subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326399' date='Apr 23 2008, 16.09']<snip>[/quote] Simply put, he's an obvious conversion target therefore a likely test subject. I wouldn't have converted him for fear that he would have been tested the beginning of day 2 in order to allow him to be helpful the rest of the day. To run the risk that you would lose your conversion with a finder out there who might peg you (or investigate WJ for that matter since he was pretty obvious) would just be dumb. I do agree with LC, however, that we gotta stop being condescending. We can disagree and be reasonable at the same time. I think we're waiting on Skroob then everyone has checked in for the new day right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Princess Vespa' post='1326412' date='Apr 23 2008, 10.16']Simply put, he's an obvious conversion target therefore a likely test subject. I wouldn't have converted him for fear that he would have been tested the beginning of day 2 in order to allow him to be helpful the rest of the day. To run the risk that you would lose your conversion with a finder out there who might peg you (or investigate WJ for that matter since he was pretty obvious) would just be dumb. I do agree with LC, however, that we gotta stop being condescending. We can disagree and be reasonable at the same time. I think we're waiting on Skroob then everyone has checked in for the new day right?[/quote] Okay, do you agree that the OC will likely convert on N2 from the pool of players that have already been tested since we are basically giving them a D3 pass with this strategy? How are you going to feel about it if we get two innocent results today? We will be at 3 cult vs. 4 innos on D3 with a 33% chance that the finder was compromised. Not only that, but if the OC has any sense, they will have converted one person who was investigated on D2 and that will gaurantee the cult survives to D4, possibly with as many as 3 members. AFAICT the only way this strategy works is if the finder successfully reveals guilty players by the beginning of D3 (before the 1st D3 test). I guess I just generally reject the theory that we should ignore a player becuase they are the obvious conversion choice. If we are ever in a game together where you suspect me of being evil, you should definitely ignore your instincts, because I would have definitely converted WJ or you last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326367' date='Apr 23 2008, 09.53']Okay, big shot, if my plan is so horrible, explain how we are going to win with *your* plan.[/quote] Look, I didn't mean to offend. I apologize if I did. But it's impossible to just lock up a win with any plan. Yours is predicated on the basic assumption that I was the likely convert last night, right? You apparently would prefer to bank on that reasoning, at the cost of improved odds. I personally prefer a plan that 1) increases our odds of finding some ASS, and 2) utilizes other general mafia principles of analysis at the same time. With regard to #1 - my odds of being evil are 1/7 = 14.3% (odds of being the night 1 conversion). Anybody else's odds of being evil are 1-(1-1/6)*(1-1/7) = 28.6% (odds of being the OC or night 1 conversion). So everyone else is [i]twice[/i] as likely to be evil, based on the simple math. You seem to think that the OC would want to target me to steal the CI. And your concern over that game-based strategy overcomes the above odds. I disagree for a few reasons. First, the OC had to be concerned that people would re-test me out of paranoia. Second, people were pushing the idea to re-test me during the night. And third, its all WIFOM analysis ("the OC would have thought you wouldn't be re-tested, so he would have converted you, except then he would have realized that people would anticipate that, so you were going to be re-tested after all, so he avoided you, except then...."). After all that, I prefer to rely on the odds. As for point #2 - obviously, we can't just ignore the game-based analysis. We have to judge this like a normal mafia game. Which players are subtly defending each other? Which ones are avoiding each other? Which ones are attacking each other too much? And so on. If we notice anything important, than this point trumps point #1. More importantly, this point can be used in conjunction with point #1, to both maximize our odds [i]and[/i] lead us with educated decisions. Basically, tests are no longer random. That was just day 1. Now there are partners out there to hunt down, and plans of attack being suggested, etc. - all of those things should be relevant to our analysis and our decisions on who to test. Anyway, all of that said, if we do just want to hunt down the OC, then we can use the Finder to do so. As Masonity pointed out, he may have been converted last night. That is a risk. But if we want to take a chance and just trust him, then we could guarantee (again, assuming he wasn't converted) that we catch the OC before the ASS win the game. We'd have me, the Finder, his investigation, 2 tests today, and 2 tests tomorrow. That adds up to 7...we'd be certain to get the OC in one of those tests. And we'd have a 50% chance of getting the OC today. 50% odds are pretty solid...probably better than we can hope for in most situations. (Obviously, the above assumes that the Finder didn't get a guilty result last night. If he got one of those, he should just reveal.) Side question for the mod - I should probably re-read the rules, but I'll ask here first. In most werewolf games, if your 2nd test is successful and nails an evil player, you get to test again. You don't just have 2 finite tests. Basically, the day has to end on an innocent investigation (or in an innocent victory, if you get the last wolf). Is that how you are running this game? Please say yes. If not, then you've really put us at a disadvantage here (to the point where I'm not even certain that we have much of a chance to win). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326399' date='Apr 23 2008, 10.09']I really wish you would stop being so condescending and insulting with your posts. You can disagree with someone without saying that their idea is "horrible" or that there are [i]obvious[/i] flaws in their plan, as if they are a complete fucktard. I really, really don't like it when you do that.[/quote] LC, I honestly don't mean to be condescending. I'm not trying to insult you. It's just my normal tone when I write. I write to persuade and provoke. If I see an idea I disagree with, I undermine it both with my analysis and my tone. At this point, it's not even intentional. I do it as a force of habit. Sorry if it irritates you. Have no doubt that I respect your intelligence, and think you are a good player with a lot of potential. I'm not an asshole, I just write like one. [quote]It is different because I think you would be a good choice for conversion. Will someone please come out and explain why WJ is *not* a good choice for conversion? I would have converted him or mexal in a heartbeat and I wouldn't have thought twice about it. I certainly did not feel there was overwhelming support for re-investigating WJ. If anything, there was WJ's own post against the idea during the night, possibly before the conversion choice was made.[/quote] I wouldn't have converted me, for the reasons I listed in my last post. I do agree that Mexal would have been a very tempting conversion, but I personally would have avoided him too, out of fear that he would be tested based on pure paranoia. Probably would have gone after one of the unrevealed players tucked safely in the middle of the game (not too loud, not super quiet). [quote]An ideal compromise, might be to test someone else with the D2 1st test, see if the finder will reveal, and then we might have 1 CI, and 3 PIs. (D2 1st test, and WJ, Finder and Finder result). Those are good odds as well.[/quote] Isn't that pretty much what I was suggesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Stokeworth Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 It is day 2. 7 players remain: Barf, Colonel Sandurz, Dark Helmet, Lone Starr, President Skroob, Princess Vespa, Yoghurt. 4 votes are needed to test someone. 2 votes for President Skroob (Princess Vespa, Lone Starr) 1 vote for Princess Vespa (Barf) 4 players have not voted: Colonel Sandurz, Dark Helmet, President Skroob, Yoghurt. 13 hours to test 1 (I believe) Sophamod here, just trying to get the hang of this. Send curses by PM if I got it wrong. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 You know, I've been waiting for Skroob to come back and say something but I'm not a very patient person so... I am the Finder. I investigated Skroob night 1 and got a guilty result. I just so happen to be the most badass finder out there (last game I was a finder on a different site, 2 out of 3 investigations were evil). I was not converted last night. I think we should test Skroob as he will die then test LC as I think he was the convert. Have fun :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Stokeworth Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Yoghurt' post='1326467' date='Apr 23 2008, 11.47']Side question for the mod - I should probably re-read the rules, but I'll ask here first. In most werewolf games, if your 2nd test is successful and nails an evil player, you get to test again. You don't just have 2 finite tests. Basically, the day has to end on an innocent investigation (or in an innocent victory, if you get the last wolf). Is that how you are running this game? Please say yes. If not, then you've really put us at a disadvantage here (to the point where I'm not even certain that we have much of a chance to win).[/quote] [quote name='The Rulez']Once day 1 and then [b]twice a day after that[/b], everyone will vote for one person to be tested. The player tested will either come out INNOCENT and live or CULT and will be killed.[/quote] That is, I can't see any provision in the rules for additional tests, but I will ask Weekamod to make an official reply. ETA: As far as I remember in the first werewolf game, if you tested a werewolf on test 1, you actually forfeited the second test. :unsure: I don't remember the other werewolf game because I didn't play in it. Sophie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Colonel Sandurz' post='1326439' date='Apr 23 2008, 10.34']How are you going to feel about it if we get two innocent results today?[/quote] How does investigating me avoid getting 2 innocent results today? That's the part I'm missing. You just seem to be assuming that I'm evil. I guess it's because you would have definitely converted me, and you're assuming the same from the OC (if you aren't the OC), but still.... Anyway, in spite of our disagreement, I think you seem innocent. Your approach and tone in this game are very similar to the way you played the 4 Finders game. In that one, you were very insistent that Week was innocent, and based most of your conclusions off of that assumption. Kind of seems like you're doing the same thing here, only this time the assumption is that I was the night 1 conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Mega Maid' post='1326496' date='Apr 23 2008, 11.00']That is, I can't see any provision in the rules for additional tests, but I will ask Weekamod to make an official reply. ETA: As far as I remember in the first werewolf game, if you tested a werewolf on test 1, you actually forfeited the second test. :unsure: I don't remember the other werewolf game because I didn't play in it. Sophie.[/quote] Hmm, okay, I actually didn't play in the 1st wolf game, just the second one. Where we used the rule I mentioned. And the wolves still won, IIRC (I think we got it down to just Jagged late in the game, but then he converted me, and the 2 of us dominated after that). [quote name='Vespa']I am the Finder. I investigated Skroob night 1 and got a guilty result. I just so happen to be the most badass finder out there (last game I was a finder on a different site, 2 out of 3 investigations were evil).[/quote] Nice. :) I don't really see any point in waiting around for a counterclaim. The results on Skroob will prove whether or not you are telling the truth. [b]President Skroob[/b] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pommingham Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Yoghurt' post='1326514' date='Apr 23 2008, 17.10']Nice. :) I don't really see any point in waiting around for a counterclaim. The results on Skroob will prove whether or not you are telling the truth. [b]President Skroob[/b][/quote] No worries. I am telling the truth and that'll be shown shortly. On a side note, I'm going to the Nationals' game tonight to see Santana vs Redding. I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Westerling Posted April 23, 2008 Share Posted April 23, 2008 [quote name='Princess Vespa' post='1326519' date='Apr 23 2008, 11.12']No worries. I am telling the truth and that'll be shown shortly. On a side note, I'm going to the Nationals' game tonight to see Santana vs Redding. I'm excited.[/quote] Nice. Santana has the potential to seriously dominate the Nats lineup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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