Mini Game 51.25

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Marga' post='1357297' date='May 15 2008, 19.48']Maybe you are busy now, but you are seeming a bit too laid back for my liking. Maybe I've just stolen all the heavy lifting for now..[/quote]

Busy is an understatement. Let me check with the mods to see how much I can reveal.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Dreyken' post='1357315' date='May 15 2008, 20.04']Busy is an understatement. Let me check with the mods to see how much I can reveal.[/quote]

Ok. I got clarification.

I'm going out of town early tomorrow morning. I'm in the process of doing laundry, packing, ect. I will have very sporadic access til Sunday evening. I'm hoping to be able to get online a few times to post and keep up but that is certainly no guarantee.

This is about all of me you're going to get at the moment and much less of me the rest of the weekend. Nothing I can do about it.

[House Velaryon]

Alright, well let's vote [b]Varden[/b] then and hope Naomh or Brighid arrive soon to end the day asap. The quicker we get things going the more time you'll have to actually be around and comment.

[House Redfort]

[quote name='Marga' post='1357329' date='May 15 2008, 20.11']Alright, well let's vote [b]Varden[/b] then and hope Naomh or Brighid arrive soon to end the day asap. The quicker we get things going the more time you'll have to actually be around and comment.[/quote]

Fair enough.

[b]Varden[/b]

[House Velaryon]

*Taps fingers impatiently*

What else can we discuss?

[quote name='Naomh' post='1356983' date='May 15 2008, 16.25']I'm off for a few hours, but will be back in less than 7 hours. Probably within 3 hours.[/quote]
Good...she should be back anytime now.

Fuck knows when/if Brighid will be back.

[Lannister Guard]

It is day 3.

6 players remain: Brighid, Dreyken, Marga, Naomh, Riona, Varden.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.


3 votes for Varden (Riona, Marga, Dreyken)

3 players have not voted: Brighid, Naomh, Varden.


8 hours, 23 minutes remain.

[House Velaryon]

High Priestess I think Naomh wants to vote Varden...let's just assume she does and go with that? Can we do that? ...or can I be a Warg for just a couple minutes?

[House Redfort]

I am going to bed. I will try to post early tomorrow morning before I leave.

Last thoughts in case I wake up and I'm dead.

If there is a tomorrow, that means that Riona and Marga (or Marga/Naomh but this is a paragraph about Riona so...) are not partnered. Therefore, Riona is probably innocent. I can't see her partnered with Naomh nor Brighid. The possibility of her being partnered with Varden is there but I don't think it's nearly as strong as Brighid.

Brighid fits as a partner to Varden and as a partner to Ogan. If the game isn't over, one of them had to be guilty (well, Fionn could have been guilty but I think that's pretty unlikely). So the fact that Brighid fits as a partner to both means she's probably a partner to one of them and therefore the last remaining evil. This makes the most logical sense.

Naomh, as much as I hate to admit it, doesn't fit as a partner to Varden. She's less likely to fit as a partner to Ogan so I'm going to have to say she's probably innocent as well.

I think Marga is innocent. The only way she can be guilty if there is a tomorrow is if she was partnered with Fionn and I don't find that likely at all.

And now I'm going to sleep. I have to wake up in 5 hours :(

[House Westerling]

I'm here now.

I just glanced back at the last few posts. I am not sure about Varden. I want to vote Riona.

Let me go back and reassess Varden. I just want to be sure about this because I think Riona is guilty and I don't think she is distancing with her vote.

I've gotta be at peace with this vote becuase I am pretty sure we are at endgame here.

[House Westerling]

Marga are you around still? going to be around for a little while longer?

Would you mind unvoting for a few minutes?

[House Velaryon]

Riona may be guilty if she is partnered to Varden. She cannot be partnered to Brighid or you, and I think Dreyken is innocent (as am I). So if she is guilty, we'll have a chance of figuring it out tomorrow. If you just read through my recent thoughts it should, I hope, put your mind at ease.

[House Velaryon]

[b]Remove vote[/b].

I don't think you can convince me to vote anyone other than Varden, but I'm willing to listen and discuss.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Marga' post='1357406' date='May 15 2008, 21.40'][b]Remove vote[/b].

I don't think you can convince me to vote anyone other than Varden, but I'm willing to listen and discuss.[/quote]

My read on Varden is just less certain than on Riona. I know Varden may be guilty, but are we talking 1) inexperienced and guilty, or 2) experienced, guilty, and pretending to be inexperienced?

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='Naomh' post='1357410' date='May 15 2008, 21.47']My read on Varden is just less certain than on Riona. I know Varden may be guilty, but are we talking 1) inexperienced and guilty, or 2) experienced, guilty, and pretending to be inexperienced?[/quote]
Varden I'd guess is inexperienced and guilty. The compelling reason to vote for him today is his ties to other living players.
To restate what I said before, from my POV we have the possibility of 2 FM out of Riona, Brighid, and Varden. The only possible partnerships are Brighid and Varden or Riona and Varden. Actually, looking back at the voting..Varden was vote 3 on Ogan, so their partnership is unlikely. So unfortunately, unless Rionn was guilty, this lynch won't win us the game. However, the key is that it won't lose us the game either. I strongly feel that you and Dreyken are innocent (and you certainly can't be partnered with anyone alive at least, other than me maybe..but we obviously aren't). Anyways, Riona could not be partners with Brighid because of their vote day 1. Naomh for the same reason.

eta- Also, we'd need 4 votes to switch to Riona..you, me, and who else? I'm not sure it would be a sure thing at all.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Marga' post='1357417' date='May 15 2008, 21.54']Varden I'd guess is inexperienced and guilty. The compelling reason to vote for him today is his ties to other living players.
To restate what I said before, from my POV we have the possibility of 2 FM out of Riona, Brighid, and Varden. The only possible partnerships are Brighid and Varden or Riona and Varden. Actually, looking back at the voting..Varden was vote 3 on Ogan, so their partnership is unlikely. So unfortunately, unless Rionn was guilty, this lynch won't win us the game. However, the key is that it won't lose us the game either. I strongly feel that you and Dreyken are innocent (and you certainly can't be partnered with anyone alive at least, other than me maybe..but we obviously aren't). Anyways, Riona could not be partners with Brighid because of their vote day 1. Naomh for the same reason.[/quote]

When I re-read Varden, I see some posts and actions that are clearly the work of an inexperienced player, but then I see other posts that seem to betray he knows more than he's letting on. I may just be seeing things, and even if so, what would be the motivation for an FM to act like an inexperienced player to the point of drawing attention the way Varden has? Inexperienced players often get ignored in lynches I suppose. Still, a very risky strategy with only 2 FM.

*sigh* I would feel more comfortable voting Riona, but I know that lynch is impossible today, and I don't know who her partner might be. I can only hope that you are correct about Varden. I don't personally have much confidence in this vote, but I don't see any alternative considering the circumstances of this game, so:

[b]Varden[/b]

[House Velaryon]

Thank you Naomh. I know you believe I'm innocent, I really do think this is the best direction for us to go.

[b]Varden[/b], now hopefully we have a mod around...and some provisional PMs. I really don't want a long night.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Marga' post='1357417' date='May 15 2008, 21.54']eta- Also, we'd need 4 votes to switch to Riona..you, me, and who else? I'm not sure it would be a sure thing at all.[/quote]

Varden and Brighid might, but that of course would make either you or Dreyken as Riona's partner. Dreyken if you agreed to switch to Riona.

Even if I considered one of those options to be true, I would never be able to convince anyone to lynch either of you.

I thought of you and Dreyken as partners as well. Again, you are too well positioned and I am way too suspicious for those lynches to ever happen. So, I have no real choice but to go with this theory of Varden being guilty.

[House Velaryon]

Yeah, I understand the concern of things like Dreyken and I being partners, etc. Dreyken has been paranoid that I'm evil, and frankly I have been of him too but everything else seems to make too much sense in my mind. Maybe I'm way off, we'll see.

I think that if we survive through tomorrow, we need to lynch Brighid. I'll consider and reread Riona (if I have time), but really it has to be Brighid because I think the partners would have to be either Brighid-Varden or Ogan-Brighid.

[House Velaryon]

Oh and in case I die, I'll post this that I wrote up earlier about Ogan-Brighid. I haven't really gone through it again, hopefully it still makes sense.

Here is Ogan's interactions with Brighid thus far:
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352085"]Brighid RP flirting with Ogan[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352090"]Some more RP[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352126"]More RP flirty by Brighid to Ogan[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352135"]More RP Flirting[/url]
Next is the [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352732"]series[/url] [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352737"]of[/url] [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352765"]posts[/url] [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1352790"]where Ogan is particularly concerned with my singling out of Brighid.[/url] [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353037"]And even when he gets back too.[/url]
Then he discusses the suspects thus far:
[quote name='Ógán' post='1353300' date='May 13 2008, 11.42']We've got about 4.5 hours left. I'm satisfied with voting off low-poster Varden that has accumulated a total of 2 posts in 24 hours. I'd also vote of Naomh for the same.

Other suspects mentioned:

Marga is irritating and evasive but she's actually playing so I won't vote for her on D1.

[i]Brighid is annoyingly unhelpful[/i]

Fionn's middle-of-the-roadness doesn't seem to have gotten any traction, but I don't like the appeal to his "inexperience" as a defence.[/quote]
Doesn't actually give any suspicion really other than frustration that Fionn isn't getting attention for being middle of the road (I wonder if that will be brought up again?). So at this point his lynch targets are Varden and Naomh simply for not posting. No mention of Cargan at all.
Also interesting to note: [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353340"]Brighid is also focused on either Varden or Naomh. No reason other than they are quiet.[/url]
Now Ogan returns 3 hours later to discuss the lynch possibilities (1.5 or so hours left in the day). The only changes between this post and the last was Varden returned and Cargan was put forth as a suspect.
[quote name='Ógán' post='1353641' date='May 13 2008, 14.55']We're running out of time for a consensus for a lynch. Instead of listing ppl you wonn't lynch, let's concentrate on who we *will* lynch.

Varden has now appeared and I'm willing to wait to see what he has to say but not for much longer.

Cargan could be a good choice, imo. He's been a complete distraction, doesn't seem capable of articulating a case or looking for any alternate lynches beyond his vibes.

Naomh is a decent choice. I also don't like the "don't work hard on D1" line. At best it's lazy inno talk and at worst it's FM stifling inquiry.[/quote]
Cargan is now a very big concern and a "complete distraction". This isn't anything new as Cargan's offending post was 6.5 hours before this one. However, it is a new easy target for Ogan to push. Also notice there is no mention of Brighid here at all.
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=28118&view=findpost&p=1353669"]Brighid points out that he mentioned everyone with
votes except for her.[/url]
Ogan replies:
[quote name='Ógán' post='1353679' date='May 13 2008, 15.09']I was listing the candidates that I am willing to vote for. I haven't forgotten you but you're not up my list past these three at present. Sorry if you feel left out.[/quote]
The interesting point here is that he mentions Varden in his post that is supposedly a list of who he'd lynch, but he points out he doesn't want to lynch him. So it is not simply a list of those he'd vote for because he mentions Varden and backs off his intent to lynch them. This feels, to me, like a possible mistake.

[House Velaryon]

I hope we have mods around...if Lany went to bed I think it is a lonngg time until Pebs is on again. If that is the case is there a spoiled player with mod access? Or if not, maybe just a spoiled player could function as an ad hoc mod?