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Lannister Guard

Mini Game 51.25

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356881' date='May 15 2008, 14.33']Marga! :grouphug:

Unless you are evil.[/quote]
I am not, and I hope you aren't as well otherwise I'll feel very stupid.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356881' date='May 15 2008, 20.33']Do you feel like you got a lot of good information? From my POV all I see is a bunch of confusion and people tunneld in on innocent players. I don't mind when a "stir-the-pot" player does a good job testing and prodding players, and maybe you are normally good at this, but in *this* game, I don't think it worked. Granted, there are a lot of factors contributing to this debacle including the modkill, people not thinking for themselves, generally low level of posting, etc.

I think Riona is probably evil and she sees an opportunity to win this game right now, which is why she is pushing my lynch. Evil players can get that adrenaline rush when they see themselves one lynch away from winning. It sometimes overpowers their sense. Plus, they are evil.

Marga! :grouphug:

Unless you are evil.[/quote]

Right, other than wanting to see you hung from the maypole, your knickers used as a makeshift noose, what is the case on me?

So i want you hung...

Yes. I do.

I hardly see how that's a compelling case on me being evil!


Seriously, if you are innocent, then seriously, wtf! That's pretty poor for an end game case...

I really hope you are guilty now. At least then you have an excuse.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356881' date='May 15 2008, 14.33']Do you feel like you got a lot of good information? From my POV all I see is a bunch of confusion and people tunneld in on innocent players. I don't mind when a "stir-the-pot" player does a good job testing and prodding players, and maybe you are normally good at this, but in *this* game, I don't think it worked. Granted, there are a lot of factors contributing to this debacle including the modkill, people not thinking for themselves, generally low level of posting, etc.[/quote]

No. I don't think I got a lot of good information but at least I'm trying. I can't help if our level of participation (our being everyone) has been rather poor this game. I don't think that's due to my play style though.

Anyway, this is a discussion we can have in the spoilers after the game. Suffice to say, I think posting inconclusive posts or generally being laid back makes it incredibly hard to judge alignment.

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Riona, I just looked back at your case on Naomh and it makes me feel even stronger about not lynching her today or tomorrow. Most of it is based off of a connection to Ogan, whose alignment we don't know. It is really just not that impressive a case and I don't like that you've been acting like it is bullet-proof. If you are going to look for a connection to Ogan, Brighid seems much more likely.

Unfortunately, you aren't likely partnered with Brighid as you were the second vote on her day 1 and remained there. Brighid's partners would have to be Ogan, Varden, or Dreyken.

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[quote name='Dreyken' post='1356914' date='May 15 2008, 14.44']No. I don't think I got a lot of good information but at least I'm trying. I can't help if our level of participation (our being everyone) has been rather poor this game. I don't think that's due to my play style though.

Anyway, this is a discussion we can have in the spoilers after the game. Suffice to say, I think posting inconclusive posts or generally being laid back makes it incredibly hard to judge alignment.[/quote]

Maybe so, but I haven't really had much chance to play the way I like to play in this game becuase I was under suspicion for stupid reasons right out of the box. I made some neutral comments on D1 becuase that was how I felt when we had little to go on. Someone accuses me of being middle-of-the-road, and I have no way to exonerate myself. No one, except possibly Marga, is willing to entertain the notion that I was simply stating the objective truth. I find it hard to accept that so many people seemed to have strong guilty feelings about any player based on what happened on D1, and I said so at the time.

I am not blaming you for the modkill or people not participating.

It doesn't really matter anymore. You, Varden, Brighid and Riona have to decide if you are going to lynch me. If one of you four is unwilling, then we need a new lynch target.

or else we have to determine if going to night has any value. With no finder, I don't see any value in not just taking our shot right now.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1353294' date='May 13 2008, 17.37']I've reread the thread a couple of times now and I can't come to any conclusions on who might be guilty. To me, [u]Marga[/u] is acting the most suspicious, but I am not convinced that she is evil, or that an FM would act in this manner. Sympathizer would be a possibility, except my interpretation of the roles is that there are no sympathizers. So, I am not that interested in voting Marga. I am not very suspicious of Riona/Raona either.

Beyond that, I really haven't zeroed in on anyone. The evidence is extremely thin, even by Day 1 standards. There is a lot of pushing and bitching going on, but not much in the way of evidence so far (in my view).[/quote]

I cut out half the quote, but it didn't have much to do with what I say. Right here Naomh, after relatively little interaction at all between her or Marga, says she is suspicious but not convinced she is evil. [u]No interest[/u] in voting Marga at all. This was during the same time that a few (like Riona) were suspicious of Marga's so called "irritating, agressive play." Now it turns around now, that Marga has [u]no interest[/u] in voting for Naomh. Coincidence? At this point there are some people who are more suspicious than others, but I don't know if there is anyone for the most part I can trust enough to say I wouldn't vote for them.

I believe that was on page 4 which is where I am in my reread. I've got to go run/jog now, so I'll be back in a few hours and look more into this possible link or anything else I can find out.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356937' date='May 15 2008, 20.55']Maybe so, but I haven't really had much chance to play the way I like to play in this game becuase I was under suspicion for stupid reasons right out of the box. I made some neutral comments on D1 becuase that was how I felt when we had little to go on. Someone accuses me of being middle-of-the-road, and I have no way to exonerate myself. No one, except possibly Marga, is willing to entertain the notion that I was simply stating the objective truth. I find it hard to accept that so many people seemed to have strong guilty feelings about any player based on what happened on D1, and I said so at the time.

I am not blaming you for the modkill or people not participating.

It doesn't really matter anymore. You, Varden, Brighid and Riona have to decide if you are going to lynch me. If one of you four is unwilling, then we need a new lynch target.

or else we have to determine if going to night has any value. With no finder, I don't see any value in not just taking our shot right now.[/quote]

It's not day 1 stuff that I like the idea of lynching you for. It's the links to Ogan.

Marga is right though. That is a gamble on him being guilty...

And ultimately, if he was guilty, it's not a huge deal if you are his partner and we do miss you today, as a lone FM is far less dangerous right now than a pair.

My problem is BOTH of my potential lynch choices are mostly based on Ogan being guilty. I guess at least there is a chance that Brighid is evil independant of Ogan.

So I hate to do so, and will seriously kick myself in the spoilers if you ARE ogan's partner and somehow win, but for now I'm willing to make Brighid my #1 choice. I don't really have anything at all on anyone else worthy of lynching them for.

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[quote name='Várden' post='1356939' date='May 15 2008, 14.57']I cut out half the quote, but it didn't have much to do with what I say. Right here Naomh, after relatively little interaction at all between her or Marga, says she is suspicious but not convinced she is evil. [u]No interest[/u] in voting Marga at all. This was during the same time that a few (like Riona) were suspicious of Marga's so called "irritating, agressive play." Now it turns around now, that Marga has [u]no interest[/u] in voting for Naomh. Coincidence? At this point there are some people who are more suspicious than others, but I don't know if there is anyone for the most part I can trust enough to say I wouldn't vote for them.

I believe that was on page 4 which is where I am in my reread. I've got to go run/jog now, so I'll be back in a few hours and look more into this possible link or anything else I can find out.[/quote]

I felt suspicious of all the irritating bully players on D1. Marga has since receded in my suspicions. It's called "not locking in on your opinion based on your D1 suspicions".

What kind of FM would come to the aid of their *sole* partner who is by far the top lynch candidate today?

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356937' date='May 15 2008, 14.55']It doesn't really matter anymore. You, Varden, Brighid and Riona have to decide if you are going to lynch me. If one of you four is unwilling, then we need a new lynch target.

or else we have to determine if going to night has any value. With no finder, I don't see any value in not just taking our shot right now.[/quote]

I'm willing to entertain other options. That's why I've been gathering information and discussing things.

As for night, if we go to night, someone else will die and it'll lower the suspect pool. That's a good thing even though the most likely night kill is one of the people not many people suspect (ie: me or Marga). At least that way you guys would be able to know that what we've said is from the mouth of an innocent.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356950' date='May 15 2008, 15.03']I felt suspicious of all the irritating bully players on D1. Marga has since receded in my suspicions. It's called "not locking in on your opinion based on your D1 suspicions".

What kind of FM would come to the aid of their *sole* partner who is by far the top lynch candidate today?[/quote]

Well, that all depends. Marga isn't really suspected. So it's not all that suspicious that he's defending you. If he keeps you alive and someone else gets lynched, you guys win. Note: This is all hypothetical but it's why Marga, if partnered with Naomh, would come to his aid in this situation.

That all being said, I think Marga is innocent so...

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[quote name='Riona' post='1356945' date='May 15 2008, 15.00']It's not day 1 stuff that I like the idea of lynching you for. It's the links to Ogan.

Marga is right though. That is a gamble on him being guilty...

And ultimately, if he was guilty, it's not a huge deal if you are his partner and we do miss you today, as a lone FM is far less dangerous right now than a pair.

My problem is BOTH of my potential lynch choices are mostly based on Ogan being guilty. I guess at least there is a chance that Brighid is evil independant of Ogan.

So I hate to do so, and will seriously kick myself in the spoilers if you ARE ogan's partner and somehow win, but for now I'm willing to make Brighid my #1 choice. I don't really have anything at all on anyone else worthy of lynching them for.[/quote]

I really don't understand why you are so convinced of Ogan's guilt. If you are innocent, you are allowing that assumption to blind you. If Ogan was guilty, go ahead and lynch me today, if the game is still going, then lynch Brighad tomorrow. According to your view of the game lynching us in either order is perfectly acceptable because you assume Ogan's guilt.

I think you are looking for a way to back off of your fervor to lynch me so you seem more rational.

Who would your suspects be if Ogan were innocent? Just for the sake of discussion.

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[quote name='Várden' post='1356939' date='May 15 2008, 15.57']Now it turns around now, that Marga has [u]no interest[/u] in voting for Naomh. Coincidence? At this point there are some people who are more suspicious than others, but I don't know if there is anyone for the most part I can trust enough to say I wouldn't vote for them.[/quote]
Wow, you are quite the sleuth. How many people here would like to vote for me today? I'm pretty sure that Naomh isn't alone. As for me refusing to vote for Naomh, that is because it seems as the Naomh's only possible partner (from my POV) is Ogan. I'm not willing to put all my eggs in one basket and basically vote under the assumption that we picked out a partnership because, frankly, I don't think that partnership is that likely either.

[quote name='Riona' post='1356945' date='May 15 2008, 16.00']And ultimately, if he was guilty, it's not a huge deal if you are his partner and we do miss you today, as a lone FM is far less dangerous right now than a pair.

My problem is BOTH of my potential lynch choices are mostly based on Ogan being guilty. I guess at least there is a chance that Brighid is evil independant of Ogan.[/quote]
Then you should probably look for other evidence if you want to help give us the best chance of winning. To be clear our next lynch, today or tomorrow, needs to be safe and Naomh is not a safe person to vote for.

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[quote name='Dreyken' post='1356951' date='May 15 2008, 15.05']I'm willing to entertain other options. That's why I've been gathering information and discussing things.

As for night, if we go to night, someone else will die and it'll lower the suspect pool. That's a good thing even though the most likely night kill is one of the people not many people suspect (ie: me or Marga). At least that way you guys would be able to know that what we've said is from the mouth of an innocent.[/quote]

I think it is probably too easy for the FM to pick the right person to NK in order to foment the proper lynch tomorrow. OTOH, if people are truly willing to look at all the options (which it hasn't felt like so far), then lowering the suspect pool by one might be okay.

We are at endgame with 2 FM if we lynch the wrong person today, so anything that helps us narrow the pool to the right person is good, but it means we have to get two perfect lynches in a row. Pretty dicey considering the situation.

If we lynch an FM today, we can go to night tomorrow and leave the last 3 players with a reasonable shot at winning for the innocents, but it depends on getting it right today, which is probably even riskier than the going to night scenario.

So, maybe going to night does have an advantage. It is a pretty desperate situation either way.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356957' date='May 15 2008, 21.07']I really don't understand why you are so convinced of Ogan's guilt. If you are innocent, you are allowing that assumption to blind you. If Ogan was guilty, go ahead and lynch me today, if the game is still going, then lynch Brighad tomorrow. According to your view of the game lynching us in either order is perfectly acceptable because you assume Ogan's guilt.

I think you are looking for a way to back off of your fervor to lynch me so you seem more rational.

Who would your suspects be if Ogan were innocent? Just for the sake of discussion.[/quote]

Read my last post. I said that i'm willing to consider his innocence and play with that in mind. I said that I realise if he was guilty we're not in huge trouble now anyway, so i can afford to assume he was innocent.


If he was innocent, you are off the hook. Not PI, but not a suspect either.

Brighid goes back to my #1 spot, as someone who could have been guilty even with an innocent ogan.

The others? I trust Marga and Drey enough to place them in PI. Not VPI or CI, but out of my line of fire for now.

That leaves Varden, who has scooted through without contributing much, if anything. There's no way i can get a read on him, and that makes him dangerous.

Now the thing is, I don't think you and brighid can be partners. Therefore it's you and varden or brig and varden.

Brig should be my #1 suspect, and in many ways is.

However, Varden's skated through the game without having to put much in. I think he's dangerous, because we have no fix on him.


I'd like to lynch Brig or Varden today. Tomorrow it will be between the survivor and you, as tomorrow we're either dead, or in the end game regardless of ogan's guilt, and therefore can consider the possibility again.

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[quote name='Naomh' post='1356975' date='May 15 2008, 16.20']If we lynch an FM today, we can go to night tomorrow and leave the last 3 players with a reasonable shot at winning for the innocents, but it depends on getting it right today, which is probably even riskier than the going to night scenario.

So, maybe going to night does have an advantage. It is a pretty desperate situation either way.[/quote]
Hm, you bring up some good points. A lynch today of an FM would leave us with 4 (3v1) and would give a bit more leeway (even more with a guard or a heal) than going to night. The more I read and think about it, I feel pretty good about Dreykin and I think it will be either him or I biting the dust tonight (unless one is BP or gets healed). If he is guilty, he's played a good game. More from some of my rereads soon.

eta- We have about 14 hours left...right?

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Ok, I'll come back to my reread stuff in a second (yes I realize I keep pushing it off, but I'm thinking of other things).

In my mind right now I think Dreykin is innocent and Naomh is innocent or partnered with Ogan. So forget voting for them.

Working under the assumption we have 2 FM left that means we need to look at partnerships within these three: Varden, Riona, and Brighid.

Brighid-Varden
Riona-Varden
...and frankly Varden could even be a partner of Ogan's.

Riona could not be partners with Brighid because of their vote day 1. Naomh for the same reason.

[b]Varden[/b] looks to be the safest lynch for us today. I am feeling fairly certain they are guilty. Riona did just bring them up a decent amount, but never really committed to voting them over Brighid. This could be distancing because they are realizing the noose may be tightening, I'm not sure. I need to look back some more.

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[b]Varden[/b] is the only person who could really still b linked to anyone, the only one keeping webs atached.

I'd wager that either Varden or Ogan are guilty.

So I'll follow in. Brighid gets yet another bloody pass, and sadly enough I'm still not convinced i'd choose her over Naomh tomorrow.

If she's guilty I'll kick myself. Hell, if either of them is, I'll kick myself for not trusting myself on the Ogan guilty thing.

Still, it's better to follow the plan most likely to get us a win than the plan most likely to stroke my ego if i'm right.

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[b]Remove vote[/b], I fully believe in Varden being guilty, but I don't want to risk hammering at all.

eta-
[quote name='Riona' post='1357029' date='May 15 2008, 16.55']So I'll follow in. Brighid gets yet another bloody pass, and sadly enough I'm still not convinced i'd choose her over Naomh tomorrow.[/quote]
Huh? If we have a choice of voting tomorrow (meaning no guard or heal) then that means Varden is evil and he is much more likely to be partnered with Brighid over Naomh.

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I really don't like how quick Riona jumped on that.

I rather go to night. Simple reason is while I think you're innocent Marga, I don't know. You could just be playing a fantastic game. You could be partners with Naomh and Riona and that scares me if we lynch Varden. I'd rather go to night and die or have you die so at least the threat of you being partnered with someone else isn't there.

I'm paranoid.

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