AGOT Mafia 53.5 - The Ankh-Morpork City Watch Masquerade Ball

[House Wythers]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410189' date='Jun 21 2008, 23.42']Death of Rats, a couple of days ago you were entertaining the idea that Rincewind and the Duck Man were on the same FM team. Is that still your opinion, and what was the connection you saw?[/quote]

Yes, that is still my opinion. I've also got Greebo on that team at the current time.

EDIT: I didn't see a connection, I thought they were both guilty and put them on "the other team" if you know what I mean.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410190' date='Jun 21 2008, 23.43']Both Gytha, and DoR put their votes on Rincewind and kept them there a major part of day 2. Cohen went after him pretty hard day 1.

I am not saying none of them couldn't be RW's partner, just the Greebo is most likely.[/quote]

Ok, so it's based more on a process of elimination than a connection.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410193' date='Jun 21 2008, 23.46']Ok, so it's based more on a process of elimination than a connection.[/quote]

Yes.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Death of Rats' post='1410194' date='Jun 21 2008, 23.48']Yes.[/quote]

Sorry, I was saying that to Io, but it does work as a response to you as well.

So your A team, then is Death, Cohen and either Nanny or myself?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410199' date='Jun 21 2008, 23.54']So your A team, then is Death, Cohen and either Nanny or myself?[/quote]

Vimes-Cohen-Librarian + Gytha vs. Duck Man, Rincewind, Greebo + Hogfather

Is my favorite explanation, given the CF results. But I don't think you'll agree with team A :)

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Death of Rats' post='1410200' date='Jun 21 2008, 23.56']Vimes-Cohen-Librarian + Gytha vs. Duck Man, Rincewind, Greebo + Hogfather

Is my favorite explanation, given the CF results. But I don't think you'll agree with team A :)[/quote]

I realise it is probably shocking, but no. I'm not buying the A team. Myself aside, I have real trouble with the Librarian as an FM. Especially with symps, I still have real trouble with the idea of three man FM teams as well.

[Magic Mirror]

My teams would be

Team 1
FM - Rincewind
FM - Greebo
Symp - Hogfather

Team 2
FM - Duckman
FM - Cohen/DoR/Gytha
Symp - Libby

[House Wythers]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410206' date='Jun 22 2008, 00.01']I realise it is probably shocking, but no. I'm not buying the A team. Myself aside, I have real trouble with the Librarian as an FM. Especially with symps, I still have real trouble with the idea of three man FM teams as well.[/quote]

I think Cohen would be a good lynch. I'm more sure about him than Greebo.

[Magic Mirror]

Vimes... who do you think the teams consist of?

[Magic Mirror]

[quote name='Death of Rats' post='1410200' date='Jun 22 2008, 05.56']Vimes-Cohen-Librarian + Gytha vs. Duck Man, Rincewind, Greebo + Hogfather

Is my favorite explanation, given the CF results. But I don't think you'll agree with team A :)[/quote]

Really, FM teams of 3+1?

That means only 8 innocents without any roles except Symp finder. I mean, we have had no evidence of a Guard or Healer. Guard and Healer could be out there (or in the dead innocents) I guess, but I doesn't seem practical to me.

[House Ashford]

Only here for a few minutes. Unfortunatly.


C'mon, people, it is OBVIOUS that Librarian is the other symp. Think about it. Imagine you have a friend, then someone claims that your friend is a symp and you believe him without a doubt. Isn't that fucking strange?

And yeah, I believe in symmetrical FM teams. Librarian is the safest choice for today. Others would be Cohen, who is behaving weirder from day to day, and Gytha Ogg. Both claimed Cf when it was obvious that it hurt our faction. At least one of them tried to blend into the crowd.

Those who still think that I must be partnered with Rincewind should remember that this is a CF game. If Rincwind had not been modkilled, he would have been lynched rather sooner than later. His partner must have known that, so he might have already tried to distance himself.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410209' date='Jun 22 2008, 00.04']Vimes... who do you think the teams consist of?[/quote]

I'm going to take a little time to work on this before answering. The reason I'm questioning you and DoR is that I don't have a clear idea.

I'm working on my answer now.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410211' date='Jun 22 2008, 00.08']Really, FM teams of 3+1?

That means only 8 innocents without any roles except Symp finder. I mean, we have had no evidence of a Guard or Healer. Guard and Healer could be out there (or in the dead innocents) I guess, but I doesn't seem practical to me.[/quote]

I'm going to assume Igor, Seamstress, Carrot, etc. were used at least once. It just doesn't make sense to claim.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Greebo' post='1410212' date='Jun 22 2008, 00.10']Only here for a few minutes. Unfortunatly.


C'mon, people, it is OBVIOUS that Librarian is the other symp. Think about it. Imagine you have a friend, then someone claims that your friend is a symp and you believe him without a doubt. Isn't that fucking strange?

And yeah, I believe in symmetrical FM teams. Librarian is the safest choice for today. Others would be Cohen, who is behaving weirder from day to day, and Gytha Ogg. Both claimed Cf when it was obvious that it hurt our faction. At least one of them tried to blend into the crowd.

Those who still think that I must be partnered with Rincewind should remember that this is a CF game. If Rincwind had not been modkilled, he would have been lynched rather sooner than later. His partner must have known that, so he might have already tried to distance himself.[/quote]

It is this kind of post which makes me especially suspicious of you Greebo. It is not [i]obvious[/i] that the Librarian is a symp. It's possible, and the argument for symmetry is one that should at least be taken into consideration. Of all the possible lynches today, the Librarian is the absolute worst of them, in my opinion. We may have decided yesterday that a definite symp is better than a possible FM. A possible symp is way behind a possible FM on the lynch lists.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410221' date='Jun 22 2008, 07.22']It is this kind of post which makes me especially suspicious of you Greebo. It is not [i]obvious[/i] that the Librarian is a symp. It's possible, and the argument for symmetry is one that should at least be taken into consideration. Of all the possible lynches today, the Librarian is the absolute worst of them, in my opinion. We may have decided yesterday that a definite symp is better than a possible FM. A possible symp is way behind a possible FM on the lynch lists.[/quote]

It is obvious. And if we lynch him today, both FM teams are down to 1. Game over.

Have to leave now. Would be nice if people would finally start to listen to what I am saying instead of following the symps.

[House Westerling]

Here are my thoughts on groupings.

I'm pretty torn on this. At first I liked:

Duck Man, Greebo - ??? (maybe Cohen, DoR. Librarian is a possibility)

Rincewind, Gytha Ogg - Hogfather.

There really does seem to be a link between the Hogfather and Nanny to me. However, I accept that Nanny's vote on Rincewind on day two is troubling. I was considering it as a particularly brave piece of distancing. Rincewind never did get too close to lynch, the Luggage was the front runner for all of the last part of the day, and Nanny repeatedly state her preparedness to change to the Luggage giving herself an out if necessary. I do have trouble accepting this since it really is quite a risky move, but I'm thinking that Nanny encouraged the Hogfather all day, repeatedly said she didn't suspect him. Now Nanny wouldn't know who her Symp was, but she would encourage the guy who looks like getting the luggage lynched, letting her keep her distancing vote on Rincewind even longer. For a FM Nanny Ogg partnered with Rincewind, the Hogfather was a real blessing and she treated him as such all yesterday.

I'm really back and forth on this. I have strong feelings about Greebo's guilt, but not which team he's on, so if Nanny isn't with Rincewind then I'm quite happy to accept that Greebo could be. If Nanny is not on a team with Rincewind and the Hogfather then I don't see anything that specifically makes her FM.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='Greebo' post='1410222' date='Jun 22 2008, 00.30']It is obvious. And if we lynch him today, both FM teams are down to 1. Game over.[/quote]

That is only [i]if[/i] he is a symp which is not guaranteed. Also, two FM teams of 1 are not Game Over.

I'll tell you tomorrow if the librarian is a symp (provided I can survive tonight, and I have to say I'm hoping like hell that there is a healer or guard out there to get me through). I suppose that only works if you trust me, but delaying the Librarian's lynch a day is not going to derail your plan at all. Indeed, if we can get a decent lynch today, we might end up with only one FM team to deal with tomorrow and then we really are moving toward Game Over.

[quote name='Greebo' post='1410222' date='Jun 22 2008, 00.30']Have to leave now. Would be nice if people would finally start to listen to what I am saying instead of following the symps.[/quote]

Greebo, following the FM is not an improvement on following the symps. :P

[House Dayne]

Just got home. I'm dead tired, but I'm going to try to re-read a few people and post my thoughts.

[House Westerling]

Incidently, Io, what do you make of Greebo at the moment in terms of his links to the librarian. Do you think he's casting off a possibly compromised symp. He has to be doing something for your groupings to hold up.

[House Dayne]

Okay, a few things.

First, there is one major post by Hogfather that could possibly give us information about his FM. His list of suspected SCD partners.

He said Greebo, Gytha Ogg, and Blind Io could not be partnered with SCD.

Cohen was a possible partner. But he noted that it was "a little too obvious".

Death of Rats was a likely partner. To me, this eliminates Death of Rats as a potential teammate of Rincewind and Hogfather. A few other things (such as DoR's vote on Rincewind in crunchtime of the lynch on day 2) made it unlikely, but this puts it over the top.

So my suspect list for Rincewind partners is Greebo, Gytha Ogg, Blind Io, and Cohen.


On the other side, we have Duckman, with Librarian as a possible symp. I agree with Greebo that symmetry makes the most sense. So I think Librarian is the most likely symp for the 2nd team. That said, I have to acknowledge that this game has been anything but predictable. I really wish Vimes had investigated Librarian last night....but since he didn't, we're stuck with what we have. Which is suspicion, not certainty.

If Librarian is the other symp, this post may prove to be informative.

[quote name='Librarian']Okay, I've just checked the thread in our secret forum. People who obviously weren't symped by Hoggy are Cohen, Vimes, Io and DoR.[/quote]

First, I'll point out that this could have been a way for Librarian to try to protect his FM. Keep him off our Rincewind-Hogfather-??? suspect list. That has me looking more closely at Cohen, Io, and DoR as potential Duckman partners.

Second, Librarian - can you explain why you don't think Hogfather was symping Cohen or Io? I know its supposedly something he said in your secret forum. Can you explain it in more detail?