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AGOT Mafia 53.5 - The Ankh-Morpork City Watch Masquerade Ball

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[quote name='Librarian' post='1410310' date='Jun 22 2008, 04.13']If you are going to count Gytha's vote on Rince as a point against partnership, then you should do the same to Cohen, since his Day 1 vote on Rincewind was the first thing that brought Rince out in the spotlight.[/quote]

That's true, but all in all it was a much less risky move since Rincewind was not going to get lynched at that point.

Esme's case on Cohen is pretty convincing I think and I definitely agree now that Cohen and Greebo are the top two suspects. The man's voting was odd.

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I know we're off the subject of Nanny Ogg now, but I just wanted to point out that I did encounter this gem while rereading.

[quote name='Gytha Ogg']we are down to 30 minutes...we need to come to an agreement. Luggage or Rincewind. I'll lynch either (I was on Rincewind all day)[/quote]

She was rather proud of the fact that she'd stayed on Rincewind all day.

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[quote name='Librarian' post='1410311' date='Jun 22 2008, 04.16']I'll now point out another interesting banana connecting Hoggy with Greebo.[/quote]

Are you deliberately drawing this out to build the suspense? :P

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[quote name='Esme Weatherwax' post='1410274' date='Jun 22 2008, 03.48']Gytha Ogg

[u]Points in favor of partnership[/u]

1) Her day 1 suspect list -



Rincewind is listed as a suspect, but he doesn't get her vote. Could easily be distancing. I would expect a FM in a CF game to place a partner either in the Rincewind/Cohen position of her list or in the 'middle' part of the list.[/quote]

he was #3 behind Grrebo and Offler. #3 out of 15 is no where near the middle of the list

[quote]2) Blind Io yells at Cohen for voting Rincewind when he doesn't have any votes. DoR points out that I suspected Rincewind earlier. Nanny Ogg then feels it is necessary to remind us that she suspected Rincewind too -

Not a huge point, but she could be attempting to reinforce the distancing.[/quote]

I think the statement made was that Rince wasn't suspected...but he had been. Nothing wrong in correcting Blind on this point.

[quote]3) Gytha votes for Rincewind near the start of day 2 -



This is the vote that some people are saying makes her an unlikely Rincewind partner. And I will bring it up in the 'points against' section. That said, I'm going to have to keep open the possibility that this too could be an attempt to create distance.

Gytha leaves 45 minutes after her vote for Rincewind. She says she will be gone for 9 hours. Meaning she is going to be back with 12 hours left in the day. Thats plenty of time to change her vote. The only way her vote was a big threat to Rincewind would be if her case led to him being lynched. But she wasn't pointing out anything new in her post, and wasn't really pushing others to vote for him. And she listed 4 other suspects along with him.

Basically, what I'm saying is that if the group turned on Rincewind while she was away, the best place for her to be would be among the first Rincewind voters. If things went another direction, or if it was a close race and she felt she could save him, then she could move her vote elsewhere. It was a win-win move....the only risk was if people voted for Rince as a result of her case/vote, but that didn't seem likely, given that she didn't put much into her case on him.[/quote]

I had SCD as a killer from my CF results. No one disagreed with my analysis. The most likely person for his partner was Rincewind. THAT was why I voted him and kept it there until the tide turned to Luggage.


[quote]4) Blind Io argues against a Rincewind-SCD partnership, and Gytha agrees.[/quote] No, I said he made good points and my notes at work were different from what I came up with at home so I would take another look. After taking that look, I did not change my vote.



[quote]5) She leaves the thread when the vote count is 3 for Luggagge and 2 for Death, Offler, and Rincewind. There are 4 hours left in the day and she says she'll be gone for 2. When she comes back, it's now 6 votes for Luggagge and 4 for Rincewind. She moves her vote to Luggagge.

The main point here is that Luggagge was not her top suspect (wasn't even on her original list for possible SCD partners), but now she's willing to move over to him when Rincewind is still a viable option for the lynch.[/quote]

No one else was voting Rinceword or had said they would. I disagree that he was still a viable lynch option.

[quote][u]Points against partnership[/u]

1) For her to be a Rincewind partner, she would have had to engage in a lot of distancing. Listing Rincewind on her 2nd tier of suspects on day 1, voting for Rincewind on day 2, leaving her vote on Rincewind very late into day 2. Distancing is definitely possible in a CF game, but it all may add up to being too much.

2) The biggest point in her favor is that she actually went ahead and left the thread with 4 hours left, stating that she wouldn't be back until approximately 2 hours were left.....and she left her vote on Rincewind. He was only 1 of 4 lynch options at the time, and he only had 2 votes on him (including her own), but still....that would have been a somewhat risky move.


Hmm...I originally thought the vote wouldn't end up being a big point in her favor, but I didn't realize just how long she left it on Rincewind. I still think she's a possible partner, but I have to rank her below Io (not sure how she ranks compared to Greebo and Cohen yet).[/quote]

Thanks. I know I have no partners at all, and I am pretty sure the evidence will show that. The only serious sins I have committed were symping Libby and Hogface. They were both reasonable and I agreed with them alot.


*sorry about last night. I fell asleep on the couch...it was a long and tiring day out with the family*

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[quote name='Hogfather' post='1406000' date='Jun 19 2008, 17.23']Being a replacement will only give you so much of a grace period, I'd suggest to try to get into the game or you'll find yourself out of it rather quickly.[/quote]
This banana is obviously directed to Greebo. To me, this sounds like a frustrated symp telling his master to get a grip. Also notice that he never goes after Greebo after this banana, although Greebo hasn't changed his playstyle, which was the main reason for Hoggy to call him out.

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[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410315' date='Jun 22 2008, 05.22']I know we're off the subject of Nanny Ogg now, but I just wanted to point out that I did encounter this gem while rereading.



She was rather proud of the fact that she'd stayed on Rincewind all day.[/quote]

of course I was. He was my top suspect for SCD's partner. :rolleyes:

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Gytha, who do you find more suspicious-Greebo or Cohen? And what do you think about me? Is Vimes a CI to you too?

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[quote name='Librarian' post='1410331' date='Jun 22 2008, 06.18']Gytha, who do you find more suspicious-Greebo or Cohen? And what do you think about me? Is Vimes a CI to you too?[/quote]

I find Greebo more suspicious based on his actions, but the case on Cohen for Rincewind's partner is very good.

I have not thought you guilty the whole game and it is hard for me because a little voice is nagging at me that I missed something. I still can't point to anything suspicious about you, but I sure as hell wish I could. (ok, that might be a but too honest :P )

I guess Vimes is PI...I'm not a hundred percent sure, but for now I am willing to believe him. (leaning towards PI)

There is only one person I am sure of, and that is me.

I need to write up all my suspects and why.

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[quote name='Librarian' post='1410325' date='Jun 22 2008, 04.52']This banana is obviously directed to Greebo. To me, this sounds like a frustrated symp telling his master to get a grip. Also notice that he never goes after Greebo after this banana, although Greebo hasn't changed his playstyle, which was the main reason for Hoggy to call him out.[/quote]

That's actually a pretty good one. Knowing what we know about the Hogfather it does read like rather pointed advice.

[quote name='Gytha Ogg']of course I was. He was my top suspect for SCD's partner.[/quote]

I know your reason for being on him all day. I just don't think you really needed to make such a point of it. No one was saying that they didn't think you'd vote for Rincewind.

Still, I'll be interested to read your suspects and your thoughts.

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Tier One: Cohen, a very likely candidate for Rincewind’s partner
Greebo, suspicious from the beginning. Could also be Rincewind’s partner

Tier Two: Death of Rats: I have been bugged by him from the beginning, although I liked him. The posts lately though have really raised my suspicions of him. The majority of his last 25 posts have been pretty much one liners. In fact, ever since he was easked to fully explain himself, most of his post have been this way. I feel like he is trying to look like he is participating without saying too much.


Stoneface and Esme are likely PI.

Librarian I have already stated my feelings. There is just one more thing (might be why I have been bothered) Although he was around at or near the ends of days one and two, he wasn’t part of either lynch mob. (even though he had stated suspicions of them) Could he have known they were likely innocent ? I don’t know, but both times I felt it a little bit strange. I am not sure enough to vote him or PI him.

That leaves me with Blind Io. I have to do a few things but will be back in a few hours to reread him (I have no off he top of my head thoughts on him.

I'll vote when I come back as well.

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Just woke up and I'm checking in for a second. Will be around periodically this morning.

[quote name='Librarian' post='1410325' date='Jun 22 2008, 04.52']This banana is obviously directed to Greebo. To me, this sounds like a frustrated symp telling his master to get a grip. Also notice that he never goes after Greebo after this banana, although Greebo hasn't changed his playstyle, which was the main reason for Hoggy to call him out.[/quote]

Okay, that's enough for me. I'm more confident of [b]Greebo[/b] being evil than anybody else.

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[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410224' date='Jun 22 2008, 07.57']That is only [i]if[/i] he is a symp which is not guaranteed. Also, two FM teams of 1 are not Game Over.

I'll tell you tomorrow if the librarian is a symp (provided I can survive tonight, and I have to say I'm hoping like hell that there is a healer or guard out there to get me through). I suppose that only works if you trust me, but delaying the Librarian's lynch a day is not going to derail your plan at all. Indeed, if we can get a decent lynch today, we might end up with only one FM team to deal with tomorrow and then we really are moving toward Game Over.[/quote]

Sounds good to me.
[b]
Remove vote[/b]


I also toyed with the idea of two friend-symps, but that would overpower the FM factions by far.

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OK, I'm joint top suspect.

I can't say anything other than I'm innocent.

People say that my vote on Rincewind was a distancing vote, day 1. I'd like to point out that for a long time in day 1 I also had a vote on The Luggage, with an (at that time) substantiated case; this was not a case that people agreed with either. Also, my vote for Rincewind was not a very good distancing vote (as people say it was) since it drew attention to me - from Blind Io at the time, and from people seeking to get rid of me now.

I still believed I was sane until well into yesterday. The thing that made me disbelieve my sanity was the result on Rincewind coming up innocent. And Hogfather came up as a killer, meaning he was innocent; I suppose a symp would appear innocent, so I believe Stoneface's case on Hogfather.
But until yesterday, I still believed I was sane, as the people coming up guilty were either my to suspects, or general top suspects - SCD, Luggage, Offler and Dibbler all came up as guilty. Duck Man came up as innocent, so I didn't figure to look for links with him.

The mess of CF results has worked out worst for me, since I have based a lot of my reasoning on them, and now seem to be top suspect. It's worked out best for Greebo, because his views on the CF thing added to his credence where before he was a high suspect.

I still think we should get rid of Greebo today. If you want to lynch me, lynch me tomorrow.


If you believe I'm a NK, then you can get me tomorrow - I'd only have one more kill tonight, and that'd mean there'd either be one or zero NK left after tomorrow. As I take it, people believe there are no more than 2 NKs left, and the rest innocent; there's enough people left to get rid of the NKs in two days.

8 left - Cohen, Esme, Librarian, DoR, Stoneface, Oggy, Blind Io, Greebo.
Lynch an 'innocent' - 7 left,
My NK - 6 left
Lynch me tomorrow - 5 left
NK tomorrow night - 4 left
3 vs. 1 - NK taken out, innocents win.

^ I think so anyway. Don't know how symps factor in though.

If you lynch Greebo instead, I'm pretty sure that's taking out a killer, and might stop an NK tonight. If there are two NK left, you take Greebo and someone dies tonight, you can still lynch me tomorrow - leaving 5; one more NK leaving 4, you should still be able to get the last killer the day after.

If you're convinced I'm a killer, take me today, but then if there are two NKs left atm anyway, there'll be a good chance the evils will win.

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[quote name='Librarian' post='1410279' date='Jun 22 2008, 10.08']OTOH, Cohen was mentioned several times in our secret cave. Week was planning on going after Cohen and Vimes today. I think that pretty much excludes Cohen from the group of possible Rincewind's partners.[/quote]

Hopefully nobody listens to this. He is a lying symp who is protecting his master. Let's not forget this.

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Looks like the only point against me being Rincewind's partner is that I did not mention him while he never was around. Makes not much sense to discuss when everyone is somehow suspicious of me for shady reasoning.


But yeah, just go ahead and lynch me, no one is listening to me anyway and since I didn't plan to play this one, we don't have to drag this out.


That's all i have to say. If you wait for a role claim, well, I am a roleless CF like most of you.

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Btw, even if I was partnered it makes absolutely no sense to lynch me today, because I would not be able to kill on this night. I guess Librarian knows that, but surprisingly he is not interested to find the todays team FM. :rolleyes:

Everyone who thinks that Librarian is innocent should give us a suggetsion what role the other symp has. BP? Vig?

Or symp finder? ;)

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[quote name='Greebo' post='1410449' date='Jun 22 2008, 09.50']Hopefully nobody listens to this. He is a lying symp who is protecting his master. Let's not forget this.[/quote]

I actually haven't forgotten this possibility, and I am not considering the Librarian's beliefs on Cohen, either one way or the other, until I get my Symp Finder result.

[quote name='greebo']Or symp finder?[/quote]

Make the Symp Finder a Symp? Wouldn't that be nice. At least then I'd know who to investigate. :P

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Good morning.

It's always my second choice suspect getting lynched. If my notes are correct one more will kill the cat.

So unless anyone has any objections I will do so in about 5 minutes. Sorry, Greebs, your objections will not count.

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