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Masonity

AGOT Mafia 53.5 - The Ankh-Morpork City Watch Masquerade Ball

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[quote name='Cohen the Barbarian' post='1410607' date='Jun 22 2008, 19.46']Greebo WAS a NK, I had him as "not a killer" and Stoneface as "killer"; I've gotta be insane, Greebo was guilty as sin.[/quote]

Oh good, Libby's master just confirmed Libby's reveal.

I feel so much better now.

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[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410618' date='Jun 22 2008, 21.03']Oh good, Libby's master just confirmed Libby's reveal.

I feel so much better now.[/quote]
If you're not a CF yourself, I suggest you wait for Gytha. I suppose we can all agree that I'm not a symp to her. :rolleyes:

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And guess what? My re-read of Offler wasn't very hard. The main problem is that most of his interactions and votes were with/on dead players.

The only living player he has had significant interaction with is Esme. However, this was for the most part her interrogating him, and she looks good to me overall, so, I don't think he was symping her. I couldn't find a single symp clue, and they've talked quite a lot.

Gytha is most certainly not Duck man's partner. She is the only person he suspected in his posts. Although some distancing at the start of the game isn't unusual, I'd find it unbelievable for a n00b FM to put his only partner among the 2 people he suspected during the whole game.

I also don't think Cohen is Duck man's partner. If he was, he would have known that Ducky was guilty, and could have figured out that we would eventually find whether our CFs are sane or insane, so I'd expect him to distance somewhat, instead of insisting on Ducky being innocent. His behaviour during the CF boom, with his genuine distrust towards other revealers, also has me pretty much convinced that he was sure of his importance as the only sane innocent CF.

So, for now I'm voting [b]Death of Rats[/b]. If he isn't the remaining partner, it's most certainly Blind Io. However, Io has done nothing as suspicious as DoR's claiming to have done a serios re-read, only to back off when asked to explain. Furthermore, DoR has expressed more overall sympy behaviour, and is the most probable symp among the living players.

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It is day 5.

6 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

1 vote for Death of Rats (The Librarian)

5 players have not voted: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg.

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[quote name='House Targaryen' post='1410642' date='Jun 22 2008, 20.28']It is day 5.

6 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

1 vote for Death of Rats (The Librarian)

5 players have not voted: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg.[/quote]

Actually, I voted [b]Cohen [/b]in 1158. But I'll do it again.

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It is day 5.

6 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

1 vote for Cohen the Barbarian (Blind Io)
1 vote for Death of Rats (The Librarian)

4 players have not voted: Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg.

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Libby and Cohen are telling the truth.

If Death if Rats is a killer who has been symping him? I want to take a look real quick. (there are only 4 possible choices so it shouldn't take too long)

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Knowing about all the CF’s, this post makes a lot more sense now:

[quote name='Death of Rats' post='1406667' date='Jun 19 2008, 16.05']FM generally hunt in the low-mid posting range when possible, if that's what you're asking.

I've seen low posting FMs target low posting FMs, and the odds are (with two FM teams) that at least one or two FM are in the top 3-4 posters.[/quote]

DoR pretty much acknowledges that he is a CF when he assumes Duck Man to be guilty with no evidence at all (and only 7 posts)

Well, I know that Libby is not a symp to Death of Rats (but might have helped out Duck Man on day one by making a case on the person DM was voting for.) If DoR should come up Not a Killer, Libby is back on the symp list.

I have to get back to my family now, but will return with more rereading and thoughts in a little while.

[b]Death of Rats[/b] based on his slip posted above.

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[quote name='Stoneface Vimes' post='1410266' date='Jun 22 2008, 09.21']ETA: Not really related but it saves me starting another post. If the Librarian turns up as not-a-symp tomorrow then I don't mind the Death of Rats for the other Symp right at this moment.[/quote]
Look what have I found...

So, my vote is obviously not being wasted. I take it that if a FM (who can be Blind Io, although there is the slightest possibility that it's Esme-Cohen is suspected by DoR, and Gytha isn't Ducky's partner), if they though DoR was symping them, could have killed off Vimes, at the same time keeping their voting block alive, and framing me, since me and Vimes would have both been CIs after his reveal of the result today.

Vimes' kill was a huge risk due to the healer threat. The gain I've just described looks significantly better when opposed to keeping a compromised symp alive. And this is, of course, in case DoR is the symp, and I still find him to be a more probable FM than a symp. If there is another FM, it's probably Blind Io. However, DoR makes the most sense as both the FM and a symp. I would find it surprising if he was truly innocent.

I'm out. Don't make anything stupid for the next 9 hours, please.

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That Stoneface result on Libby could've sure been handy now.

As it is, I'd rather get Libby as a symp, but not for today. For NK, it's between Io and DoR for me; as DoR looks a likely lynch, I'll vote there for today.

[b]Death of Rats[/b]

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Okay, so 1 team should be dead, and the other one should be down to 1 FM. We are in a pretty solid situation now.

There shouldn't be any kill tonight. So we'll definitely get at least 2 shots at this, if we need them. We get one lynch today, with 6 people left. And if that fails, we get a 2nd lynch tomorrow with 5 people left. Even if there is a FM-Symp team still in the game, they can't automatically win.

If the game is still going on after that, it will be a toss up on whether or not we get a 3rd lynch (depends on if there is a living symp).

Going to take a look at a possible FM-Symp pair right now.

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It is day 5.

6 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

3 votes for Death of Rats (The Librarian, Gytha Ogg, Cohen the Barbarian)
1 vote for Cohen the Barbarian (Blind Io)

2 players have not voted: Death of Rats, Esme Weatherwax.

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Okay, so of all the people left, I still think Librarian is the most likely to be a symp. Mainly based on the symmetry argument. It's not a certainty, but it's something we have to keep in mind. And if Librarian is a symp, then I think Cohen is his FM.

1) Very early in the game, Cohen asks about his character and Librarian gives a complimentary response -
[quote name='Librarian']You're old. [u]You kick ass with your fellow old kick-assers.[/u][/quote]

A bit later, Cohen says something and Librarian responds -
[quote name='Librarian']:bow: :thumbsup:[/quote]

Could easily be a couple of symp clues.

2) In the middle of day 1, Librarian is attacking Nanny Ogg. He lists his other top suspects as SCD, Greebo, and Cohen. Not sure that he'd want to list his FM among his suspects - but then again, he's only making him 1 of 4 suspects, and he's not going after him. So its only a minor point against a connection.

3) Later, Vimes asks Librarian why Cohen is on his suspect list. He gives a somewhat vague and dismissive answer -
[quote name='Librarian']I suspected him because I also thought he was twisting Luggage's words and because of possible fake-symping of Hoggy, who I don't think is guilty. I don't remember it very clearly, so I'll probably re-read it when I get back.[/quote]

So what does he think after his re-read?
[quote name='Librarian']After re-reading Cohen, I feel a lot better about him. My suspicion on him was based on him misinterpreting both mine and Luggage's points, but I wouldn't call it twisting our words. I also agree with much of his recent posts.[/quote]

And he says his suspects are now Nanny Ogg, SCD, and Offler. He eventually votes for Offler.

4) After the SCD lynch, he says that he suspects 2 people as potential SCD partners - Offler and Nanny Ogg. Cohen isn't mentioned.

5) On day 2, he posts a suspect list. Cohen is listed 6th out of 13 players, at the end of tier 2. Relatively safe place to put your FM master.

6) Now the key part of the case. Starts when Librarian tells us who Hogfather wasn't symping -
[quote name='Librarian']Okay, I've just checked the thread in our secret forum. People who obviously weren't symped by Hoggy are Cohen, Vimes, Io and DoR.[/quote]

I went through all of the possible suspects last night, and there was nothing in the thread to indicate that Hogfather couldn't be Cohen's symp. In fact, the opposite is true - Hogfather actually defended Cohen after I attacked him. So I asked Librarian, and he said his conclusion was based on things said in their secret forum. Which is completely unverifiable by the rest of us. Nice way for him to keep his FM off of our list of players to be lynched.

He reiterates this later -
[quote name='Librarian']Cohen was mentioned several times in our secret cave. Week was planning on going after Cohen and Vimes today. I think that pretty much excludes Cohen from the group of possible Rincewind's partners.

Possibilities left for the partnership are just Gytha and Greebo IMO. I'll go and re-read Greebo and try to get a grip on him. When I return, I'll probably vote him over Cohen.[/quote]

And again -
[quote name='Librarian']I'll look at Esme's case on Cohen now, but I won't vote him. Week going after him proves his non-belonging to that team. We should lynch Greebo since he is the only person who can be on the both teams.[/quote]

And he defends Cohen some more -
[quote name='Cohen']If you are going to count Gytha's vote on Rince as a point against partnership, then you should do the same to Cohen, since his Day 1 vote on Rincewind was the first thing that brought Rince out in the spotlight.[/quote]

7) Today, he says he doesn't think Cohen is the last FM. And he votes Death of Rats.

So, yeah....if Librarian is the 2nd symp, then I think Cohen is his FM. However, I don't think we have to lynch Cohen today. Death of Rats is definitely another top suspect of mine - I've thought he was suspicious the entire game. And like I said before, if we get this wrong, then we should have 5 players left tomorrow. A Cohen-Librarian team won't be able to automatically win the game - we'll still be able to lynch Cohen if necessary.

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So, like I said above, I'm alright with voting for [b]Death of Rats[/b] today. Hopefully my day 1 case against him will prove to be correct, and I'll be able to gloat about it in spoiler heaven. :P

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For your viewing pleasure: [url="http://youtube.com/watch?v=nnQh6QoRuBM"]http://youtube.com/watch?v=nnQh6QoRuBM[/url]

You all drop the Death of Rats into a pit full of rats. Dire rats.

[b]Death of Rats was lynched. He was Anatole Kuragin.[/b]

PMs forthcoming.

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The sun hath risen. You are all still alive. Except for the dire rats. You feasted on Rats-on-a-Stick yesterday evening, and hey, it's Rats-on-a-Stick for breakfast too!

It is day 6.

5 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

5 players have not voted: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

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I was getting ready to respond to Esme's case when my IM box popped up. (of course I had the opposite result).

The case is rather impressive and looks to be complete. I want to double check a few things today before I vote though.

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[quote name='Gytha Ogg' post='1410817' date='Jun 22 2008, 17.31']Death of Rats was not a Killer.[/quote]

Okay. That means it is Cohen or Blind Io.

It comes down to the Librarian - Cohen connection to me. Like I said in my case, if Librarian is a symp, its probably to [b]Cohen[/b].

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