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AGOT Mafia 53.5 - The Ankh-Morpork City Watch Masquerade Ball

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Why did we lynch an innocent yesterday? Oh yeah, we did it because the FM and symp voted that way too.

At 5, we have to lynch the FM or symp today or we lose.

[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410601' date='Jun 22 2008, 19.35']Tier 1: Cohen, Libby
Tier 2: DoR, Gytha
Tier 3: Esme, Io[/quote]

Updated

Tier 1: Cohen, Libby
Tier 2: Gytha
Tier 3: Esme, Io

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So from my perspective, there are two choice: Cohen and Libby or Esme and Blind Io. Esme very clearly and with great detail outlines the Cohen-Libby connection.

I have two ways of looking at this on the Esme-Blind team: one with Esme as the symp and one with Blind as the symp. I’ll take Blind as the symp first since he has fewer posts (at least I think he does).

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[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410825' date='Jun 22 2008, 18.39']Well hell, in for a penny, in for a pound.

[b]Cohen[/b][/quote]

Looks I will be deciding between two people I have trusted the whole game....god this sucks. I am going to make my reread of Esme-Blind a good one.

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[b]Blind Io[/b].

Librarian is certainly not my symp as I'm not a killer. I find him suspicious enough to lynch him, but not if the only way people will lynch him is as my symp. He may have been fake-symping me, after all. I still think Librarian could be a NK, but nobody else seems to; and, if he's a symp, well get him tomorrow.

I said earlier that Io/DoR could be a partnership and I'd say that could be possible, with DoR as the symp. Note - both put quick votes down on me - six minutes apart- early yesterday; they could be in a team with Greebo, who they both mentioned as possible but favoured me to vote for. It was 2-1 Cohen-Greebo in terms of votes at that stage; enough, perhaps, to push a lynch on me then.

As such, Blind Io for my vote.

I'm not sure about Esme, she could be a NK but I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt and say not.

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It is day 6.

5 players remain: Blind Io, Cohen the Barbarian, Esme Weatherwax, Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Cohen the Barbarian (Esme Weatherwax, Blind Io)
1 vote for Blind Io (Cohen the Barbarian)

2 players have not voted: Gytha Ogg, The Librarian.

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I don't believe Blind Io was symping Esme. The only thing there really was having Esme at the bottom of his list...something I myself have done a lot.

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[quote name='Cohen the Barbarian' post='1410833' date='Jun 22 2008, 23.49'][b]Blind Io[/b].

[color="#8B0000"]Librarian is certainly not my symp as I'm not a killer. I find him suspicious enough to lynch him, but not if the only way people will lynch him is as my symp. He may have been fake-symping me, after all. I still think Librarian could be a NK, but nobody else seems to; and, if he's a symp, well get him tomorrow.[/color]

[color="#4169E1"]I said earlier that Io/DoR could be a partnership and I'd say that could be possible, with DoR as the symp. Note - both put quick votes down on me - six minutes apart- early yesterday; they could be in a team with Greebo, who they both mentioned as possible but favoured me to vote for. It was 2-1 Cohen-Greebo in terms of votes at that stage; enough, perhaps, to push a lynch on me then.

As such, Blind Io for my vote. [/color]

I'm not sure about Esme, she could be a NK but I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt and say not.[/quote]

[color="#8B0000"]Careful, Cohen, you are letting your FM show. If you [i]really[/i] thought I was the FM, why would we need to lynch the symp tomorrow? The game would be over.

In fact, the only way the game doesn't end now -- the ONLY way -- is if we lynch the symp.

If we lynch an innocent, we are at 2 goodies and 2 baddies, The baddies night kill and the innocents lose. Game over.

If we lynch the FM, game over.

If we lynch the symp, we are at 3 goodies and 1 baddie. The baddie night kills and we are at 2 goodies and 1 baddie.

So clearly, we are not lynching the symp tomorrow[/color]

[color="#4169E1"]If you honestly think that I would have been on a team with Greebo, you haven't been paying attention. I wanted to lynch Greebo over Hogfather. I made that quite clear. I wanted to vote you over Greebo yesterday because it was your night as night kill... not to put distance between Greebo and me.[/color]

****
eta: NK at Westeros mafia means Night Kill... the person who get's killed by the baddies at night, or the action of killing that person

The abreviation for the baddies is FM (Faceless Men). So I think you meant these two sentences to say...

[i]I still think Librarian could be a FM, but nobody else seems to;[/i] and

[i]I'm not sure about Esme, she could be a FM but I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt and say not.[/i]

Neither of these could be the FM. Libby was a friend. Even these wacky mods-on-crack wouldn't make him a friend [i]and[/i] a FM. Esme knew that Hog and Libby were friends. As a FM, you kill friends... a block of two can swing a lynch mob over too you real fast.

Gytha cannot be a FM either. If she was, she'd have just laid her vote on you and been done with it... Only 3 are neeed for a lynch. The only two FM possibilites are you, Cohen, and me.

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But if the symp is on the evil team, we still have to get rid of them? The killer - if we get you today - will be gone; what about the symp?

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[quote name='Cohen the Barbarian' post='1410869' date='Jun 23 2008, 01.13']Io - why did you edit out the end comment about Esme?![/quote]
It said, "The only way Esme is night killed is if we lynch the symp."

I realized you didn't mean "night kill" with the NK abreviation. You meant FM. I took it out.

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We win when the last killer is lynched, even is a symp is still alive (or at least that is the way it has always been)


I have looked as Esme and I noticed something that might be a little odd: She is rather confrontational with just about everyone at some point...with 2 exceptions: Blind Io (what a surprise! she asked him one question and never followed up on it) and with Librarian.


If Esme was symping Blind Io, it was pretty subtle. Other than her giving Libby the pass for catching his friends code, BI is the only person she never really challenged.

I can't help but think that speaks volumes.

I will wait and hear what Libby has to say before I decide which way to go.

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As a further aside, even the abreviation NK to mean "night kill" is frowned upon. It is prefered that you spell it out. Why? because NK looks too much like NaK, witch means "not a killer."

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[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410863' date='Jun 23 2008, 02.04'][color="#4169E1"]If you honestly think that I would have been on a team with Greebo, you haven't been paying attention. I wanted to lynch Greebo over Hogfather. I made that quite clear. I wanted to vote you over Greebo yesterday because it was your night as night kill... not to put distance between Greebo and me.[/color]

The only two FM possibilites are you, Cohen, and me.[/quote]

1. Yes, you did place a vote on Greebo for a while, but you readily changed to Hog. If you were that insistent on Greebo, you could've kept your vote there. In your own words, that would've been suspicious, since you said it was suspect when I voted for Rincewind and then changed to affirm a lynch. This is exactly what you did here. Yesterday would have been good distancing too.

2. If that's the case, then we simply must lynch you to guarantee a victory for the innocents.

I am innocent.

If perchance all the reasons Io listed - about why the FM has to be one of me or him - are wrong, then there's a safe FM in the game and evils should get the victory anyway.

If it has to be out of me and Io, then it's Io. Lynch me if you want - but watch the evils win!

If you lynch me, there's an evil left. I'm not sure about the whole system, but, if it's their night to kill, there'll be 3 left; then there's an evil + probably a symp left - evils win. If there's no symp left, then I suppose there's a chance that innocents could win - it'd be 2-1 innocents, but that's assuming there's no symp left, so it's risky.

So, like I said, lynch Io.

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[quote name='Cohen the Barbarian' post='1410878' date='Jun 23 2008, 01.28']1. Yes, you did place a vote on Greebo for a while, but you readily changed to Hog. If you were that insistent on Greebo, you could've kept your vote there. In your own words, that would've been suspicious, since you said it was suspect when I voted for Rincewind and then changed to affirm a lynch. This is exactly what you did here. Yesterday would have been good distancing too.[/quote]
So we will let people judge the value of your words vs. mine.

Post Vime's (with Libby) outing the Hogfather.
[quote name='Blind Io' post='1409634' date='Jun 21 2008, 18.52']I too was wondering if we should follow the rule "Thou shalt not suffer a symp to live."

And Hogfather as a symp is so dangerous.

Team 1:
FM-Rincewind
FM-???
Symp-Hogfather

Team 2:
FM-Duckman
FM-???
FM/Symp-???

So we have 2, maybe 3 FM left. We have 10 players. I think we can afford to lynch [b]Hogfather[/b] today.[/quote]

Libby asks who I think Hogfather's master is...
[quote name='Blind Io' post='1409682' date='Jun 21 2008, 19.31']So if I believe Esme, Vimes, and Libby, that leaves Death, Greebo, and Gytha as the second FM partnered with Rincewind

But Death put and left his vote on Rincewind day 2, leaving Greebo and Gytha. Day 2 Gytha put a vote on Rincewind as well and left it on most of the day. Not to mention that Greebo has padded his vote count. I am inclined to think Greebo is more likely the FM over Gytha.

In fact, I believe it enough to vote [b]Greebo[/b].[/quote]

Libby then says my vote of Greebo over Hogfather is "unreasonable". I reply,
[quote name='Blind Io' post='1409700' date='Jun 21 2008, 19.47']This debate comes up alot... lynch the probable FM or the certain symp. If we assume the team is 2+symp we rid ourselves of a team... then there is no night kill, giving us a greater chance of winning before the innocents' numbers are whittled down further.

I don't think lynching Hoggy is a priority over eliminating a team. Or did I get it wrong and Greebo is the FM for the team YOU are symping for Libby? ;)

However, if the group concensus is that Hoggy is who must go, I'll change my vote back.[/quote]

Finally about 1 hour 45 mins later, when Greebo is still at one and Hogfather is at 4 (out of 6) I say...
[quote name='Blind Io' post='1409783' date='Jun 21 2008, 21.13']Well, clearly we aren't going to lynch Greebo today, so I'll move my vote back to [b]Hogfather[/b].[/quote]

That isn't distancing, it's trying to get rid of a FM team.

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[quote name='Blind Io' post='1410885' date='Jun 23 2008, 02.52']So we will let people judge the value of your words vs. mine.

Post Vime's (with Libby) outing the Hogfather:
[quote]
I too was wondering if we should follow the rule "Thou shalt not suffer a symp to live."

And Hogfather as a symp is so dangerous.

Team 1:
FM-Rincewind
FM-???
Symp-Hogfather

Team 2:
FM-Duckman
FM-???
FM/Symp-???

So we have 2, maybe 3 FM left. We have 10 players. I think we can afford to lynch Hogfather today.[/quote]

(ETC)

That isn't distancing, it's trying to get rid of a FM team.
[/quote]

Yes, the opposing FM team!

You must be Duck Man's partner. Killing on nights 2 and 4. Greebo, Rincewind and Hogfather would be the other team which is gone, killing nights 1 and 3.

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I realise my last post contradicts my suspicion of Io being partners with Greebo, and a couple more of my posts. I realise this makes me look a bit stupid, and a bit suspect too.

I am still innocent though! And Io is still guilty!

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[quote name='Cohen the Barbarian' post='1410890' date='Jun 23 2008, 02.05'](ETC)

That isn't distancing, it's trying to get rid of a FM team.


Yes, the opposing FM team!

You must be Duck Man's partner. Killing on nights 2 and 4. Greebo, Rincewind and Hogfather would be the other team which is gone, killing nights 1 and 3.[/quote]


[quote name='Cohen the Barbarian' post='1410893' date='Jun 23 2008, 02.07']I realise my last post contradicts my suspicion of Io being partners with Greebo, and a couple more of my posts. I realise this makes me look a bit stupid, and a bit suspect too.

I am still innocent though! And Io is still guilty![/quote]

I appreciate the effort you are making. Good job.

I have no defense against being Duckman's partner. Anymore than you do. I think the only two people in the whole game with a defense are Gytha and Hogfather.

So it all comes down to this...

Is it more or less probable that Libby and Hogfather were partnered symps for opposing teams.

If you say more, than Libby is the symp and Cohen is the FM.
If you say less, then we don't know who the symp is, and either Cohen or I is the FM.

Esme still can't be. Gytha still can't be. Libby still can't be.

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[quote name='Gytha Ogg' post='1410909' date='Jun 23 2008, 02.38']We have over 24 hours left. I'm going to bed. I'll see what Libby has to say come morning and cast my vote then.[/quote]

LOL.

Libby is going to vote me. He can't vote his master. The decision will still be yours.

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