Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

House Targaryen

AGOT Mafia 55

Recommended Posts

I agree that the chance of lynching an evil on day 1 is slim at best. Because there is very little information to go on. (I don't think anyone will argue otherwise) However I have seen several games where an Evil player has been lynched on day one, becuase of mistakes made and even week cases. Rolling a dice in my opinion is an easy way out of makig a decsion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Idomeneus' post='1448797' date='Jul 21 2008, 06.45']Ok, first of all, I said I wouldn't hold it against the king if he wants to roll a die. I did not say I wanted to roll a die. I would prefer discussion just like this, which is nice. See my third point however.[/quote]

Ok, you win at semantics. But you're actually advocating a random lynch further down, so it's hard to believe that you weren't doing so here too.

[quote]Secondly, by no means have I discouraged discussion. If anything, I feel I have helped move it along.[/quote]

This is a fair point.

[quote]Thirdly, I disagree with your last point that, "Even stupid cases are better than giving up the day to random chance." On Day 1, I feel that random chance sees the best shot at success. We have [i]nothing[/i] to go on, so we're lynching for trivial reasons. Do you really think a FM is going to be lynched? With a partner and symp protecting him? What we have here are many roleless innocents, 1-man-teams. 1 kingmaker, another 1-man team. And then several killers, possibly with a symp, acting as a team.

The best shot at a sucessful kill day 1 is random chance IMO. Not any other day. Other days, we have results, discussion, and voting patterns to use. But pure, fair, unbiased chance is our best shot against the killers day 1. This wouldn't work in an ordinary game, however seeing as only one person has the power to kill, this presents the ultimate opportunity to toss a die and let chance pick its victim, regardless of partners / protection.

Now I have this feeling this point is going to be argued for a while, and probably held against me. But I will continue to mantain that the opportune day 1 for me, is full of debates / arguments (like these, this is good), followed by the king choosing on his gut feeling if he has one, or, my personal preference, rolling a die. In my opinion, that is the [i]only[/i] way we're finding a killer day 1.[/quote]

You seem to honestly believe this, so let me explain why I think it's seriously wrong.

Firstly, a random lynch is no more likely to succeed than a lynch for lame reasons (you can suspect a FM for completely bogus reasons after all, you just happened to get lucky). Though the FM have partners, this is a CF game, so they probably won't be trying too hard to protect each other. And if they do it might be a good way to catch them later on when we finally lynch one of them. Creating the [i]need[/i] for the FM to defend each other can be a useful tool (even if they end up being successful in deflecting the lynch onto someone else).

Secondly, it's possible to catch a bad guy on day one. It has happened before (more than once). It's not some kind of utopian fantasy we should discard as pointless.

Thirdly, while deciding the day on a random role doesn't remove the possibility of discussion, it does make it rather pointless. People will feel less inclined to make cases against each other if they don't have to convince each other about other people's guilt. Though day one cases tend to be lame, looking for cases that appear to be excessively contrived can be a good way to look for FM, for instance.

Anyway, I'll [u]remove vote from Idomeneus :thumbsup: [/u] and concentrate on Philoctetes. I also noticed he picked up the idea of voting for Tuecer from Patroclus (who didn't try to rationalize it, though), so the vote appears doubly suspicious to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Menelaus- It's possible, I'll admit. But let's say we have 2 killers. That seems reasonable to me. This means we have a 16.67% chance of getting a killer. That's 1 in 6. Now, answer me honestly. Do you think you could find 9 games of mafia where a killer died day 1? I agree that there are definitely a few out there, but anything less than 9 is below the probability we would get by rolling a die.

The people random chance hurts the most are the killers. Because it takes their advantage of having numbers, and allies to work with, and uses it against them, providing more targets to be hit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I found symp clues! YAY ME.

to Ido
[quote name='Philoctetes' post='1447876' date='Jul 20 2008, 16.37']A Monty Python quote? Phil approves![/quote]

and sucking up to the king?
[quote name='Philoctetes' post='1447897' date='Jul 20 2008, 17.18']From the silence, it appears your subjects are afraid of you, My Liege. But I for one know of your just and fair ways. Truly a regent who wishes to rule like Zeus himself.

Tell us how you intend to make your selection for tonight's lynch, M'lord.[/quote]

[/end sarcasm]

On to the serious subject: I actually agree with the idea of lynching Tuecer. We only have 12 players to start...losing 2 on day one will suck big time. It shortens our chances of winning by a day if both the lynch and Tuecer are innocent.

Better to lynch him and save a kill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I can think of three with out even trying, and another where we lynched a symp.
I have not looked through any of the past games to check who died on day one, nor have I played or watched (or read afterwards) everygame played here. So I have no idea what the actual number is.

I do believe however that we are better off looking for cases / and connections between other players. the information that we provide today, by making these cases can be of more use latter on.

Just agreeing to roll a dice, removes that information from the game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
First, please note that I'm continuing this not out of suspicion or anger, but because I truly believe my idea has merit and would like to reach a reasonable conclusion.

[quote name='Odysseus' post='1448835' date='Jul 21 2008, 15.10']You seem to honestly believe this, so let me explain why I think it's seriously wrong.

Firstly, a random lynch is no more likely to succeed than a lynch for lame reasons (you can suspect a FM for completely bogus reasons after all, you just happened to get lucky). Though the FM have partners, this is a CF game, so they probably won't be trying too hard to protect each other. And if they do it might be a good way to catch them later on when we finally lynch one of them. Creating the [i]need[/i] for the FM to defend each other can be a useful tool (even if they end up being successful in deflecting the lynch onto someone else).[/quote]
This is a good point. Rolling a die removes the need for killers to defend each other, and thus hurts us once we find a killer. Very good point, thank you.

[quote]Secondly, it's possible to catch a bad guy on day one. It has happened before (more than once). It's not some kind of utopian fantasy we should discard as pointless.[/quote]
See my previous post. In you sincerely believe there are nine games we have gotten a killer day 1, I will abandon all thoughts of dice.

[quote]Thirdly, while deciding the day on a random role doesn't remove the possibility of discussion, it does make it rather pointless. People will feel less inclined to make cases against each other if they don't have to convince each other about other people's guilt. Though day one cases tend to be lame, looking for cases that appear to be excessively contrived can be a good way to look for FM, for instance.[/quote]
Well you see, I highly doubt we will unanimously agree to use a dice. As such, we continue to argue and debate. But the beauty of a Kingmaker game is that we do not need to convince the masses, we need to convince the king. And because many people will not agree to this, there will still be discussion. Suppose for example Diomedes immediately agreed to this, and thought it was a brilliant idea. I'm sure within moments, people would be attacking me on how I'm preventing discussion (thus [i]creating[/i] discussion).



Those are my responses to your point. While I concede that your first point is valid, I still feel that we have a bigger chance of finding a killer using unbiased chance, and using their team numbers against them.


OK, best and worse scenarios for rolling a dice:

1. Best- we kill a FM, he comes up guilty, and we all rejoice and break open the kegs

2. Worst- ummm... we kill a roleless innocent?
This is my next point. We don't have finders (i don't think) because we have a CF. We won't have guards/healers (I don't think) because the kingmaker makes 1 person bulletproof a night. Our only definite role (I believe), is the Kingmaker. And this role cannot be killed. If we kill the Kingmaker, or they die at night, the role moves on to someone else. We can't lose a role by using dice. At best we get a killer, at worst we get a RI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would be reluctant to lynch Tuecer because he may still turn up. (maybe he's not aware of the game start time. and picking on him so soon screams easy target.

However I agree a modkill is not in our best interests, and I think it would be doubtfull there will be a replacement. Ideally 13 people where the minimum wanted for this game.

I will not support a Tuecer Lynch until close to Modkill. I also believe we should look for other suspects on the chance he turns up and contributes. (If he turns up we have several hours until default day end to judge his input.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Menelaus' post='1448886' date='Jul 21 2008, 09.36']I would be reluctant to lynch Tuecer because he may still turn up. (maybe he's not aware of the game start time. and picking on him so soon screams easy target.

However I agree a modkill is not in our best interests, and I think it would be doubtfull there will be a replacement. Ideally 13 people where the minimum wanted for this game.

I will not support a Tuecer Lynch until close to Modkill. I also believe we should look for other suspects on the chance he turns up and contributes. (If he turns up we have several hours until default day end to judge his input.[/quote]

I agree with you. But when we are down to less than 30 minutes on a mod kill, it is something we need to seriously consider.

As far as actual suspects go it's a bit early to tell, but I think I spotted something. I need to go over it again see if I can make sense of it. (turn gut into a case)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Three and a half hours

I would prefer Tuecer be killed by the king than die of inactivity. I really don't want to lose two innocents today, and the chances are we'll hit an innocent. He's got as much chance of being guilty as anyone else I suppose :unsure:

I would much rather he show up and we move on, but if he's still not here, I would prefer he be killed by Diomedes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Any particular reason why we prefer Teucer to be killed by the King. The only thing I could think is the group consensus is that it's unlikely he's a killer, and since the odds are in favor of the king choosing a killer as well, we're in a position to lose two innocents if we let the mod kill occur, and only one if we have the king do it.

But, the rules are pretty clear that a first day modkill is replaceable. So what I'm hearing is a lot of people asking the king to kill someone who won't defend themselves, look like they're being helpful and generally screwing us, greek-style.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ajax- a replacement will be used if one can be found. We know the mods wanted 13 players. Seeing as we didn't hit that number, I find it unlikely that they'll have a replacement lined up.

And why is Teucer unlikely to be a killer? He has the same chance as all of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I took a look at Patroclus. I was trying to figure out about his reaction to his misunderstanding Phil when he said an FM wouldn’t be replaced. Taken in context, I had no problems knowing what Phil meant. I wasn’t sure if it was a language issue or if he was suddenly worried.

Looking over his posts, I am still not sure, but in addition to the rp, he has some very odd posts that make no sense at all.

[quote name='Patroclus' post='1448008' date='Jul 20 2008, 19.48']I think Idom is a toaster.[/quote]


[quote name='Idomeneus' post='1448011' date='Jul 20 2008, 19.50']I have no idea what this means, but it has me frightened for some reason... :leaving:[/quote]


[quote name='Patroclus' post='1448016' date='Jul 20 2008, 19.54']To put it simply: there are several models of you, 7 are known, 4 are in hiding, and one is secret. Oh, and all will be revealed.[/quote]

followed by 6 rp posts

Then he again adds a very weird comment that had nothing to deal with the conversation going on.

[quote name='Patroclus' post='1448077' date='Jul 20 2008, 20.50']So uh. the winds near Crete are perfect for sailing.[/quote]

This is the post that first caught my attention:

[quote name='Patroclus' post='1448472' date='Jul 21 2008, 01.54']Why can't FMs be replaced?[/quote]


[quote name='Patroclus' post='1448522' date='Jul 21 2008, 02.30']I wasn't confused, your words were being wacky.[/quote]

While it is true, when taken out of context, within the paragraph they were not that unclear and now it looks like he is trying to recover from his earlier statement.

While Pat could be an FM worried about his partner, I would find it more likely that he is a symp, because of the really odd comments that don’t make sense.

[quote name='Patroclus' post='1448552' date='Jul 21 2008, 02.45']I'm leaving for many hours.[/quote]

And he did this without adding much to the discussion at hand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Idomeneus' post='1449089' date='Jul 21 2008, 08.40']Ajax- a replacement will be used if one can be found. We know the mods wanted 13 players. Seeing as we didn't hit that number, I find it unlikely that they'll have a replacement lined up.

And why is Teucer unlikely to be a killer? He has the same chance as all of us.[/quote]
True, for all we know he is the killer, the only killer, modkill happens, insta-win, we all go home and enjoy our wives. Shortest war ever. I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen. And havingt he king do it, just means that we get to sit around and not think for a day. Not really the best way to find the FM, although I know day ones are usually a crap shoot anyways.

Also you might be suprised at the difference between pulling a person into a pre-existing game, as opposed to volunteering for one. Some people are more willing to do the former, for a variety of reasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm back and refreshed. I've looked over what's happened - not a great deal!

I'll do my thoughts on the Teucer Kingkill thing next, give me a few minutes.

By the way:

[quote name='Achilleus' post='1449093' date='Jul 21 2008, 08.43']Then he again adds a very weird comment that had nothing to deal with the conversation going on.
[quote]
QUOTE (Patroclus @ Jul 20 2008, 20.50)
So uh. the winds near Crete are perfect for sailing.[/quote]

[/quote]

I thought that was a pretty obvious tumbleweed post. Y'know, like, something to break an awkward silence. I don't necessarily think it means Patroclus is planning to drown us all.

Nor do I think you've made a suitable case for Patroclus being a symp. Not with things like the above comment, and mentioning their leaving without adding.

Stuff like leaving can be suspicious - but it's much more likely to indicate job or school!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Ajax the Lesser' post='1449111' date='Jul 21 2008, 11.53']True, for all we know he is the killer, the only killer, modkill happens, insta-win, we all go home and enjoy our wives. Shortest war ever. I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen. And havingt he king do it, just means that we get to sit around and not think for a day. Not really the best way to find the FM, although I know day ones are usually a crap shoot anyways.

Also you might be suprised at the difference between pulling a person into a pre-existing game, as opposed to volunteering for one. Some people are more willing to do the former, for a variety of reasons.[/quote]
Well nobody is saying he's the only killer, so I don't know why you're saying that. He has every chance of being a killer that anyone else, including you and me, has. And people haven't really been that talkative lately. You and Neoptolemus just showed up, so it may get more thrilling, but I'm probably going to be busy for the next few hours.

I would love nothing better than for him to show up. We can forget all about this, and go find some other sap who did nothing wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I remain confused as to why people keep talking about lynching other players. There is no lynching in this game. There is only the King choosing who will die. We can all agree that a certain person should die. We could all even type his name and underline it. But in the end, the King could decide it's in his best interest to kill the person leading the charge or someone who didn't "vote" or someone who waited to vote, etc.

I guess my point is, these are not normal circumstances we're in so I'm not sure why some people are pretending that its business as usual.

I remain in the camp that the least active person should be sacrificed today. Yes, the random kill does improve the chances on finding a FM today, but the chances are even greater that it will be an innocent who could contribute to defeating the FM later on. Someone who might catch upon a clue that would have otherwise been missed. The random kill will almost surely hurt the side of the innocents greater than that of the FM and I, for one, would rather that not happen.


edited to fix a mistake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I guess there's a general consensus towards just killing Teuces. I still think it's a lazy decision *shrugs*. The king will have to decide.

We seem to be onto a slow start this game (specially in the euro time-zone), which is not too good, because as other players have pointed out little information is forthcoming and our decisions tend to be more and more baseless and random.

It's very easy for FM to hide in a game with low posting, and, conversely, it's difficult for them to keep up in a high paced game without making a mistake or becoming suspiciously laconic. Teucer is completely inactive, but a few other players are pretty lethargic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1449122' date='Jul 21 2008, 12.05']Yes, the random kill does improve the chances on finding a FM today, but the chances are even greater that it will be an innocent who could contribute to defeating the FM later on. Someone who might catch upon a clue that would have otherwise been missed. The random kill will almost surely hurt the side of the innocents greater than that of the FM and I, for one, would rather that not happen.[/quote]
It could just as easily hit a player who would end up losing the game for us by picking incorrectly at the end of the game.

I've mentioned lynching just in the sense of voting. I know the king can do whatever. Which is why I like the dice roll option. Seeing as only one person's opinion matters, that presents the perfect candidate for the dice roller. The reason we can't do this in normal games is that nobody can trust each other. We can't trust Diomedes yet either, but it doesn't matter if we trust him or not, he's choosing who dies. This is why I'm advocating a dice roll. It is an opportunity that only presents itself in kingmaker games, and it is a logical action with reasonably good chances for success (compared to our other options).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Neoptolemus' post='1449114' date='Jul 21 2008, 11.58']I'm back and refreshed. I've looked over what's happened - not a great deal!

I'll do my thoughts on the Teucer Kingkill thing next, give me a few minutes.

By the way:





I thought that was a pretty obvious tumbleweed post. Y'know, like, something to break an awkward silence. I don't necessarily think it means Patroclus is planning to drown us all.

Nor do I think you've made a suitable case for Patroclus being a symp. Not with things like the above comment, and mentioning their leaving without adding.

Stuff like leaving can be suspicious - but it's much more likely to indicate job or school![/quote]
you misunderstand me...it was not the leaving that was suspicious, but a conversation was taking place about game stategy and instead of adding to it, he left with that comment. He was there long enough to have taken part. That, I find suspicious.

and his two very odd comments could be clues. I am not saying they are, just that they were odd.

And 18 minutes is long enough for a “tumbleweed” post?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×