The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part V)

[SFDanny]

[quote name='BericD' post='1634581' date='Dec 30 2008, 22.39']Just re-read the part where Ned is leaving for King's Landing and they are deciding what to do with the kids. I am convinced more than ever that R+L does not = Jon. From Catelyn's POV it is clear that she despised Jon and was insanely jealous of Jon's mom.
[indent][indent]
for nothing Catelyn said would persuade him to send the boy away. It was the one thing that she could never forgive him. She had come to love her husband with all her heart, but she had never found it in her to love Jon. She might have overlooked a dozen bastard's for Ned's sake, so long as they were out of sigh. Jon was never out of sight, and as he grew, he looked more like Ned than any of his trueborn sons she bore him. Somehow that made it worse.[/indent][/indent]

When Catelyn states that Jon cannot stay, Ned becomes furious and asks her "How can you be so damnably Cruel, Catelyn?" That is being pretty harsh on someone if you are keeping a secret from them. Once again, it also begs the question, why in the world if R+L= J would Ned think it would be smarter/safer to send Jon to the Wall, than to simply tell the person whom he trusted to run his castle the truth and rely on her and his house to protect Jon while he went South.[/quote] It is harsh on all concerned but Ned has tried to keep his secret all these years, so why would he tell Catelyn now? So Catelyn would be confronted with the choice of entering in to a conspiracy that amounts to high treason, and thereby risking not only herself but their children, and their children's inheritance? Perhaps Ned knows she can be trusted to choose protecting Jon and putting the rest in danger, but why would he ask her to do so? No, Ned has no good choices. He can't take Jon south because his presence begins to force inquiring minds to think back to fourteen years ago and to maybe begin to start asking dangerous questions. The Wall is an acceptable alternative, at least in Ned's mind. Jon is with Benjen, and as far away from court intrigue as he can possibly get and still be in Westeros. If it means that Jon swears an oath that gives up his right to the throne (if Ned evens believes that to be the case) then at the time it sure didn't seem like there was much likelihood of that happening. No, I don't think telling Catelyn was ever really a possibility, even if his oath to Lyanna would have let him do so.

[quote name='BericD' post='1634581' date='Dec 30 2008, 22.39']Also, the part of the book in the crypt when Ned is having flashbacks doesn't support the R+L= J theory unless you cherry pick them and take them out of context. When Ned finds Lyanna it is clear that she asks him to take her home and he promises her he will take her home, then he blacks out. He was found holding her body and had to be pried away by Howland Reed. The book states "Ned could recall none of it" Yet somehow, he takes a baby from the tower?[/quote]
I think you are mixing up a few things here and ignoring others. Ned makes at least one deathbed promise to Lyanna, but no where does it say that his promise was to take her body back to Winterfell and bury her in the crypts. We are led to make that jump and assume that is his promise, but GRRM quite studiously avoids telling us exactly what Ned promises his sister, and if this was the case why would it haunt him after 14 years? He tells Robert that it was her wish to be buried in Winterfell, but he never says that that was the promise he made to her.

As to the events of the Tower, Howland Reed and someone unknown (Wylla?) do indeed find Ned at Lyanna's deathbed, but his lack of memory isn't anything more than from the time Lyanna dies until he is found at her side. He certainly remembers taking the stones from the Tower to build cairns for the eight men who died there.

[Piper]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1634582' date='Dec 30 2008, 22.42']In fact, if he has Jon before Starfall, there is no other good reason to risk taking the child on such a hazardous journey except to create such a cover.[/quote]

This is the only point I disagree with in the rest of your otherwise spot on analysis.

There could be reasons for him to make the journey. Returning Dawn is no small errand, but I guess it could be done by some lackey. But if he had lackeys around, that would mean he probably had enough of a force to make it to Starfall unmolested. Moreover, making peace with Ashara might have been important enough to him to make the trek.

Also, we don't know where the ToJ was. Something about the "Mountains of Dorne" is our only geographic clue, no? Starfall might not be that off, and a castles with a maester might be just the thing the babe needed. That one's a long shot, though; I'll still say there are personal reasons for Ned to be making the journey, aside from laying any false scents.

[BericD]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1634590' date='Dec 30 2008, 22.05']As to the events of the Tower, Howland Reed and someone unknown (Wylla?) do indeed find Ned at Lyanna's deathbed, but his lack of memory isn't anything more than from the time Lyanna dies until he is found at her side. He certainly remembers taking the stones from the Tower to build cairns for the eight men who died there.[/quote]

Where was Jon during this whole time? Was he with someone else (wylla?) or was there another person in the room at the time, that we aren't privy to?

[Piper]

[quote name='BericD' post='1634600' date='Dec 30 2008, 23.20']Where was Jon during this whole time? Was he with someone else (wylla?) or was there another person in the room at the time, that we aren't privy to?[/quote]

Whether anyone was present with Lyanna at the time is hard to say; our best guess comes from this:


[i]The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister’s eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. [b]They had found him still holding her body, silent with grief. The little crannogman, Howland Reed, had taken her hand from his. [/b]Ned could recall none of it.[/i]

Who is this "they"? We don't know. It does seem to imply more than one person around.

The best guess is that if Rhaegar was really trying to provide a third head in the form of a child, he would have brought with him the necessary cadre of attendants: midwives, maesters, wet nurses, etc. Some theories put Wylla there as that wet nurse, which is convoluted but possible. Some other theories put Marwyn as the maester there, which is cool but unsupported.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Piper' post='1634592' date='Dec 31 2008, 00.07']This is the only point I disagree with in the rest of your otherwise spot on analysis.

There could be reasons for him to make the journey. Returning Dawn is no small errand, but I guess it could be done by some lackey. But if he had lackeys around, that would mean he probably had enough of a force to make it to Starfall unmolested. Moreover, making peace with Ashara might have been important enough to him to make the trek.

Also, we don't know where the ToJ was. Something about the "Mountains of Dorne" is our only geographic clue, no? Starfall might not be that off, and a castles with a maester might be just the thing the babe needed. That one's a long shot, though; I'll still say there are personal reasons for Ned to be making the journey, aside from laying any false scents.[/quote]

First, let me thank you for the kind words, and, second, let me say I don't disagree that there are many good reasons for Ned to go to Starfall, including the very good ones you mention. I just don't think those reasons would mean he would take a newborn child on a journey over desert territory and into a hostile country with an uncertain reception at the end in order to accomplish any of these tasks, and all of which could be done later, in person, once the child is safe. This is especially true if he has no wet nurse (which I find unlikely, and I think Wylla is part of the "they" who find him at the Tower,) and he has only Howland Reed for support (which I think is likely considering he traveled to the Tower with six friends - five who died there.) I think he [i]would[/i] take such a journey if he has to cover the child's trail from those who would do him harm. Then it makes a great deal of sense to me.

[Shewoman]

Beric D. said, " I am convinced more than ever that R+L does not = Jon. From Catelyn's POV it is clear that she despised Jon and was insanely jealous of Jon's mom." I agree that she despised Jon and was jealous of his mother, whoever she was. I think Ned realizes that he can't trust Catelyn to look after Jon's best interests. [b]I don't see how this creates problems for R+L. [/b]I think Ned believes Jon would be safer at the Wall than in KL in part because Benjen is at the Wall but also because he will be very far from Robert there. Robert isn't all that bright, but if he's repeatedly confronted with Jon in KL--the baby that Ned had at the end of the war but not at the beginning, the young man who looks like Arya (who looks like Lyanna)--even he might start to suspect something.

I agree with Piper that we don't know what Ned promised Lyanna. Since he did have her buried in Winterfell, I doubt that that was it. Why would he keep obsessing over his memory of promising her something if he'd already done it? I also think it likely that Wylla is one of the "they" who finds Ned and Lyanna in the ToJ. I tend to doubt that Marwyn was there. It seems likely to me that if he was gone from the Citadel for the length of time to travel somewhere near Dorne, we'd hear about it.

Ned's sense of honor requires him to return Arthur's sword to the Daynes and tell them how Arthur died. Perhaps he also hopes to see Ashara, to find out how she is after the tumultuous year or so since they've seen each other. The suggestion that he's laying a false trail in case his enemies track him could have merit.

[Shewoman]

from the Citadel article "Who are Jon Show's Parents?" found here
[url="http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/Who_are_Jon_Snows_parents/"]http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/..._Snows_parents/[/url]

We know from [b]this e-mail[/b] (clickable at the Citadel) that Jon's birth is 8-9 months prior to Daenerys', and that Daenerys is born almost precisely 9 months after the death of Rhaegar and the Sack of King's Landing (I: 25). This would place Jon's birth within one month, give or take, of the Sack. As we know the war lasts close to a year which is often just referred to as a year(I: 96, 233), suggesting 10-11 months is likelier than 9 months. Given this, his conception seems to have been between 1-3 months into the war.

After killing Brandon and his squires in Kings Landing before the war actually began, Aerys ordered their fathers to come to KL as well. They did, including Rickard Stark. Aerys had both of the Stark men (among others) killed at that time. Brandon therefore died some time before the war actually started (the beginning of the war could be said to be when Aerys called on Jon Arryn to send him Ned's and Robert's heads or when Arryn refused the order and called his banners). It is doubtful that Brandon sired any children after that.

[automne]

[quote name='Shewoman' post='1635326' date='Jan 1 2009, 08.24']Given this, his conception seems to have been between 1-3 months into the war.[/quote]
That's why I think Jon's father is either Rhaegar or someone among his entourage.

[the silent speaker]

[quote]Brandon therefore died some time before the war actually started (the beginning of the war could be said to be when Aerys called on Jon Arryn to send him Ned's and Robert's heads or when Arryn refused the order and called his banners). It is doubtful that Brandon sired any children after that.[/quote]
Bear in mind, Shewoman, that death and guest right don't mean what they used to, neither one.

[Shewoman]

The Silent Speak, I don't believe any wights have been sighted as far south as Kings Landing, where Brandon died.

[the silent speaker]

Of course not. They're [i]ninjas[/i].

[wakiki]

[size=7]
R + L = N + A[/size]

That's what I think.