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House Targaryen

MAFIA 56 - Barbie World

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It is day 5.

6 players remain: Hard Rock Cafe, Jazz Diva, Miss Aquamarine, Tarina Tarantino, The Showgirl, Toujours Couture.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

2 votes for Toujours Couture (The Showgirl, Hard Rock Cafe)
1 vote for Hard Rock Cafe (Toujours Couture)

3 players have not voted: Jazz Diva, Miss Aquamarine, Tarina Tarantino

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argh - one of Hard Rock and Couture has to be lying. A FULL healer and a FULL time finder role (passive or not) is too overpowered in CF game. They can't be working together to VPI one or the other, can they? Hard Rock is at best a symp - communicating symp, perhaps? At least one of them has to be lying, and the full heal reveal has no value. In fact it makes Hard Rock's claim weaker, so why do that? I keep coming back to Couture is evil and we are complicating this needlessly.

G - frackin'-AH!

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[quote]Hard Rock, If Toujours comes up innocent, where does that place Diva on the list. If she comes up guilty, same question.

If I am evilz, who am I symping for? The only way I could be a full fledged FM is if Couture is my partner or symp - so who is my partner?[/quote]

If Toujours is lynched, and is found guilty, Diva goes to the bottom of the list. If she is found innocent, the top. I explained why in post 571.

Well, the most obvious conclusion, based on your posts, is that you are symping for me. ;)
But, as I am certain of my own innocence, I think Toujours is either alone, or working with you. The relationship between the two of you, I don't know. If Toujours is lynched and found innocent, you will be a close second on my list of suspected FM.

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[quote name='Hard Rock Cafe' post='1493990' date='Aug 25 2008, 19.54']If Toujours is lynched, and is found guilty, Diva goes to the bottom of the list. If she is found innocent, the top. I explained why in post 571.[/quote]

Crap. I will obviously be found innocent but it would be unutterably foolish to then lynch Jazz Diva. Then again, since I have you as the only good lynch today, I can hardly expect you to agree with me. And post 571 is by Showgirl, 671 is by Jazz Diva, did you mean a different post?

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So I am second behind Diva if Couture comes up innocent? Does Tarina figure into this anywhere for you? Because, honestly - the simplest explanations are usually right.

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[quote]Crap. I will obviously be found innocent but it would be unutterably foolish to then lynch Jazz Diva. Then again, since I have you as the only good lynch today, I can hardly expect you to agree with me. And post 571 is by Showgirl, 671 is by Jazz Diva, did you mean a different post?[/quote]

Oh! Sorry, I typed too fast there, that was supposed to be 751.

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[quote]So I am second behind Diva if Couture comes up innocent? Does Tarina figure into this anywhere for you? Because, honestly - the simplest explanations are usually right.[/quote]

We have to look at the FM's actions throughout the game, if we are to decide Tarina's innocence or guilt. Is the FM the kind of person that would give up the chance to make a night kill in order for the possibility of a Tarina lynch to happen? I'll do a reread and look at what happened each night, especially night 2, that stuff still bugs me.

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Ugh... I have no idea what happened with the FM suicide/probably symp kill. Unless one of the FM has a special role to be the last survivor... but, then the other FM would be too weak... gah! Well, from my point of view if Tarina is guilty, she is working with Toujours, so either way a Toujours lynch still looks good to me.

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[quote name='Miss Aquamarine' post='1494008' date='Aug 25 2008, 20.08']yeah - 571 is Showgirl, so I checked 751, which is the right one and just a page back.[/quote]

Unfortunately I didn't have enough presence of mind to check 751. I have now though and in fact, here it is!:

[quote name='Hard Rock Cafe' post='1493686' date='Aug 25 2008, 16.33']Ok, I think Toujours Couture is guilty, mostly from Jazz Diva's case. Let me remind you all that even if we managed to get a symp somewhere, [u]we have not killed one FM this whole game[/u]. Sure, one died, but we didn't catch her. Jazz Diva stepped up to take the lead, and we have been wrong at [i]every[/i] turn. If Toujours is guilty, we can win. If she's not, and the FM don't immediately wrap the game up, I will be almost certain that Jazz Diva is the lone FM.
So: if [b]Toujours Couture[/b] comes up innocent, I will heal Showgirl tonight. And, Showgirl, if you believe me, please, guard Jazz Diva tonight.[/quote]

I don't think you can blame Jazz for us getting everything wrong. I'm starting to think that there must be a twist or something in this game like roles which confuse the finder or something and who among us has not been bth cnfused and wrong at various points through the game?

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[quote name='Hard Rock Cafe' post='1493949' date='Aug 25 2008, 20.19']So, Tarina, who do you think we should lynch?[/quote]

It's a good question. I have this nagging feeling that lynching Couture will give us an innocent result despite the fact she CAN'T be telling the truth (or got a really stupid role...). Her reveal was too good and at the same time too bad. If I don't believe her I have to believe that from the very beginning of the game she placed cleverly thought codes to prove she has a role which is utter nonsense.

I have decided to trust you and Jazz for whatever is left of this game.

Quite frankly, I'd lynch one of Aqua or Showgirl.

[quote]And the mods said this is not an evil mod game.[/quote]

Yeah, that's what [i]they'd[/i] say.

[quote]Now that I think about it, it is more likely that my heal stopped the kill rather than you being guarded.[/quote]

I still believe there are two FM left (and neither of them is me).

[quote]However, I am not going to count you as definitely innocent. And me healing Jazz Diva doesn't make her innocent, she could be trying to frame you, Tarina.[/quote]

You could be right.

[quote]Jazz Diva's position, once again, depends on whether or not we lynch Toujoures Couture and she comes up innocent.[/quote]

If I'm right about there being 2 FM alive we can't afford any more mistakes.

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[quote name='Tarina Tarantino' post='1494065' date='Aug 25 2008, 21.00']It's a good question. I have this nagging feeling that lynching Couture will give us an innocent result despite the fact she CAN'T be telling the truth (or got a really stupid role...).[/quote]

Why CAN'T I be telling the truth? I'm interested to hear your reasoning, cos I am in fact telling the truth.

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[quote name='Toujours Couture' post='1494103' date='Aug 25 2008, 22.37']Why CAN'T I be telling the truth? I'm interested to hear your reasoning, cos I am in fact telling the truth.[/quote]

I believe there are 2 FM left. Too many innocents according to you. Less than 3 FM in a 15 player game just seems broken... Plus, your role in a CF game is also exaggeratedly powerful.

Anyway, I guess it's not impossible, but I'd be very surprised.

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By 2FM do you mean two non-symp FM? Cos I agree that seems too few but...unless there are godfather roles, that's what I get unfortunately. I actually want to just find out what's going on I can feel the scornful gaze of the spectators on me right now. but I think with two symps and some roles it could be balanced with two FM, especially if the finder's results are skewed or off because of certain roles. I have to think that because that is the reality I am faced with.

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This has been an insanely busy day for me at work. I apologize again for my absence. Unfortunately, my situation may not improve any time soon. I'll always be keeping up with the thread, but I don't know if I'm going to have time to post consistently for the rest of the game. Could go either way.

Anyway, here are a few thoughts. Just want to break this all down logically.

If Couture is telling the truth, then:

1) Only Hard Rock can be FM.

2) Aqua, who was declared innocent by Couture, has revealed as Finder and declared Hard Rock innocent.

3) Therefore, Aqua would have to be Hard Rock's symp.

4) Posts 80 and 269 would appear to make an "Aqua as symp to Hard Rock" scenario unlikely.

---a) Aqua votes for Hard Rock in post 80 (though it is sort of a joke vote). She leaves the vote on Hard Rock all day, even when Hard Rock is one of the 3 players being discussed for the lynch (though its true that Aqua was apparently absent for that entire time and may not have had an opportunity to switch her vote). Would a symp leave a vote on her master the entire day? Seems doubtful (though she does later indicate that the absence was unplanned, so maybe she just couldn't get back online).

---B) Aqua comes back in post 269, during night 1. She reiterates her suspicion for Hard Rock (this time it seems serious). She says she would have pushed for a Hard Rock lynch on day 1. Why would a symp say something like that about their FM? Its practically begging to be killed.

Conclusion: [u]If[/u] we can rule out an Aqua symp to Hard Rock scenario, then Couture has to be lying.

Also, if Couture is evil, she pretty much has to be FM. I can't see how she'd make sense as a symp. She made a case against Kitty and voted for her. Symps do not do that to their FM.


So on one side, we have Hard Rock as FM and Aqua as symp.

On the other side, we have Couture as FM. It seems impossible, at this point, that Showgirl, Hard Rock, or Aqua could be her symp. I know I'm not her symp. So the only possible living symp is Tarina.

What about FM partners? Well, thats more difficult. Hard Rock isn't possible (would have to be Aqua as symp to Hard Rock and Couture, and that doesn't work). Showgirl makes no sense, because Showgirl's guard reveal is what messed with Couture's reveal. While that could be some elaborate distancing plot, it doesn't seem likely. I know its not me. That only leaves Aqua and Tarina.

If it was Aqua, why wouldn't she just lynch Canary last night? She could have easily done it. I know, distancing is nice in a CF game. But why make things harder than they have to be? Wouldn't make much sense to me. So I think Aqua is unlikely. Leaving us once against with Tarina as the only realistic option.

So here's what I've got as the possibilities.

1) Hard Rock = FM, Aqua = symp
2) Couture = FM, Tarina = symp
3) Couture and Tarina = FM
4) Couture = FM

The other thing worth examining is if Showgirl can work as a Hard Rock symp. But if thats the case, she'd have to be a second symp, in addition to Aqua. She'd know for a fact that there is no guard and no healer....so there wouldn't be any way for the innocents to actually block a kill tonight. So she'd just reveal and vote for night. Aqua and Hard Rock would follow suit. Since that hasn't happened, Showgirl can't be a symp for Hard Rock. And she obviously isn't a symp for Couture. And she isn't FM if Couture is telling the truth, and isn't FM if Couture is lying (again, unless they really set up a huge distancing scheme). So.....I think Showgirl is now VPI.

And I think my above scenarios are the only ones that make sense (from my perspective). Which is interesting, because I can honestly say the 2 following things:

1) I don't think Aqua is Hard Rock's symp, based on evidence I outlined previously.
2) When I read Couture, she sounds really genuine. I'm sorry, its just the way I feel. I must really be off this game, because all logic points to Couture being evil, and yet her posts make me want to trust her. My gut says to trust her.

Oh well, whatever. Have to trust logic over my gut. I'm not going to vote quite yet, because I want to give people a chance to respond. But its very likely that when I vote, it will be for Couture.

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Oh and one other thing. Based purely on gut feeling (not the logical analysis above), I suspect Tarina more than any other player remaining in the game. I still think she's evil. So that is another point against Couture. She named Tarina innocent, and I just don't see it.

My guess right now is that the FM team was Couture - Tarina - Kitty. I don't think there was a kill last night because I think they tried to kill me, and I was healed by Hard Rock.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why they'd target me over Showgirl. I guess maybe they needed somebody to declare 'innocent' this morning. But why not just say the mods told them there aren't any new innocents left in the game? Hmm. I don't know.

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Jazz Diva, next time you are able to post, please mention why you didn't include the simplest possibility, Tarina as either lone FM or FM with Toujours as a symp.

Edit: Never mind!

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[quote name='Hard Rock Cafe' post='1494327' date='Aug 25 2008, 19.22']Jazz Diva, next time you are able to post, please mention why you didn't include the simplest possibility, Tarina as either lone FM or FM with Toujours as a symp.[/quote]

1) I don't think Couture can be a symp. She made a case against and voted for Kitty.

2) It boils down to this:

-If Couture is telling the truth, then Hard Rock has to be the FM. Tarina isn't an option.

-If Couture is lying, then she has to be FM (again, I don't think she is a symp). So Tarina couldn't be a lone FM. She'd have to be partnered with Couture.

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[quote]1) I don't think Couture can be a symp. She made a case against and voted for Kitty.

2) It boils down to this:

-If Couture is telling the truth, then Hard Rock has to be the FM. Tarina isn't an option.

-If Couture is lying, then she has to be FM (again, I don't think she is a symp). So Tarina couldn't be a lone FM. She'd have to be partnered with Couture.[/quote]

1) She made relatively weak case that Helly was easily able to answer to, and a vote that was not backed up by anyone else, and could easily have been changed.

2) It may look like that to you, but not to someone who has even a mild suspicion of you.

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[quote name='Hard Rock Cafe' post='1494354' date='Aug 26 2008, 00.40']1) She made relatively weak case that Helly was easily able to answer to, and a vote that was not backed up by anyone else, and could easily have been changed.[/quote]

Yes but nevertheless if I was helly I wouldn't have looked at my post and thought 'aha!, there's my symp'.

Anyway Jazz I know how suspicius I look and from my point of view I reckon there must be some finder-cnfusing roles out there. I understand if you need to vote for me do but you will obviously find out your gut was right later. (yeh yeh I know all my posts for a while have been terribly WIFOMish but i know that there's not much I can do to back up my own innocence so there's nt much I can contribute at all.)

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