Jon is the child of Eddard Stark and Ashara Dayne

[Nine of Spades]

The rose represents Lyanna, not a Stark. It was her favourite flower and Rhaegar gave her the crown of roses. Also she died while lying in a bed of roses.

The rose is a winter rose from the gardens of winterfell most likely. I think it more strongly relates to the story of Bael the Bard, which in turns would closely parrallel the R+L theory in many ways. On the other hand, if the blue rose is meant to be Jon, then in relation to the story of Bael the Bard it could simply be forshadowing that John is going to be "plucked" by Ygritte and the widlings.

As I said, I think there is a lot pointing to R+L=J, but I dont find the theory wholely satisfying, and room has been left for other events to transpire.

[back_packn]

is the obvious doubt (I think I have shown should be the case) about Ashara's "death

Right... cause she would have absolutely no reason at all to do anything so crazy. She finds out her brother is dead, killed by the man she loves, who she can no longer have because he's now married to another woman, and he just showed up with the bastard he just fathered on yet another woman. I can't image why she might be alittle mentally unstable at the time. No way could she have killed herself.

But yet it's MORE feasable that not only did she just deliver a baby that she carried for nine months, but she's going to allow someone else to take that baby away and raise it for her so she can go into hiding with a stange baby she doesn't know.

How can Ned bring in some stranger in such a grave plot in Dorne, but he can't tell his wife?

So, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE tell me how Ned was going to nurse this baby himself? I really had no idea that he was lactating at the time. Seriously, Ned needed a wetnurse. Wylla was it. What makes you think she has ANY clue as to who the mother (or father was)?

Here's faulty logic. It's like using the arguement that since Arya looks like Ned, she can't be his kid. Life is full of coincidences, but many times they are just coincidences. It just reinforces that he's a Stark.

Yes, life is full of coincidences, but a well written book isn't. It is well established, multiple times, that Arya and Jon look like (as opposed to the other Stark childred.) It is also established multiple times that Arya isn't the most comely of children. After all that is established, we have Ned drop this bomb, out of the blue, telling Arya that she looks like his sister Lyanna, who everyone considered beautiful. This was not just a coincedence. It was done for a reason...

Lyanna is a Stark. Ned is a Stark. Jon is a Stark. So of course a blue rose symbolizes a Stark at the wall.

The blue rose is not a symbol of Starks. If you can't see how a blue rose is a symbol of Lyanna (and more specifically, Lyanna and Rhaegar's relationship), then you seriously need a reread.

The main arguement for R+L=J is people's interpretation of imagery. But if Martin wants to foreshadow Jon's parents, why is there no reference to anything about him involving dragons or fire?

Ah, but there is. It's in a Tyrion chapter in GoT. I'll have to look it up later when I have my books.

Because it explains Ned thoughts. Why doesn't he think about Brandon or Ashara?

There are times when Ned goes thinks about his childred. He lists each of his children excluding Jon. Why? Obviosly he wouldn't think about Brandon or Ashara then, because he's thinking of his children.... but not Jon.

Ned marries a girl so his brother, father, and possibly sister can be revenged. Why is having a bastard out of character if he truly loved Ashara?

Ned married a girl because it was what tradition called for, and he was honor bound to do it. If he was so in love with Ashara, and if the marriage was nothing more than a piece needed for revenge, why not arrange the marriage with Cat and Benjen? That would secure that aliance, plus leave him free to marry his true love, Ashara, securing yet another aliance? He married, because he was the eldest, and it was his duty. That was the kind of person Ned was. Why was having a bastard so out of character? Because it goes against everyting we learn about Ned from the books. Heck, even his best friend has a hard time belive Ned would have done it. He probably wouldn't even have beleived it if it happend came from Ned's mouth.

Also, having a bastard and refusing to tell him about or let him meet his living mother, much better explains Ned's shame than simply, "it's every boys right to know the names of his parents."

His shame comes from having to lie to his loved ones for the past 14 years. His shame comes from the dishonor (to himself, his family, and his wife) of claiming to have had sex, and fathered a basterd within months of marrying Cat. (Weather you think he was sired before or after, it is "common knowlege" to those in the books that it took place after he married.) And his shame comes from not being able to tell Jon the truth about his parentage. What's wrong with him feeling shame from those?

So basically, this is the cliff notes version of your theory:

You refuse to belive that there's any way Ashara could have commited suicide.

You refuse to belive R+L=J, because it's too commonly accepted.

Therefore Jon is the son of Ned and Ashara.

[Shewoman]

Ned married Catelyn to cement the alliance with the Tullys--an alliance that, as originally proposed with the Brandon-Catelyn wedding, had nothing to do with avenging anyone since there was no one to avenge at that point.

The reason I say Ned wouldn't have impregnated Ashara after his marriage to Catelyn has nothing to do with my wanting him to be "good." It's because HE wants to be good. It's inconsistent with his character for him to father a child on a woman he can't marry, leaving her to bear the shame that would be in that society (and it's a drawback of your theory that we don't hear any talk about that slutty Dayne girl who had a child out of wedlock). I'm not that interested in upright, honorable characters. My favorite person in the series is Tyrion. But looking at the Ned Martin created, I do not see him being unfaithful and I certainly don't see leaving Ashara to deal with the fact of her child alone.

Ashara may or may not be dead. But given that she'd lost her brother and the man she presumably loved, I really don't see her giving up her child as well. She was already running a bit short of kin. It's certainly possible to argue that she's alive without having to resort to this.

I don't think the timeline can support a pre-Catelyn conception. Martin said Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, which isn't an indeterminate period of time. But if Ned had already impregnated her when Brandon died and he was told to marry Catelyn, I think he'd have refused for Ashara's sake. That would be the honorable thing to do. Benjen was young, but he was available.

[Maia]

If he was so in love with Ashara, and if the marriage was nothing more than a piece needed for revenge, why not arrange the marriage with Cat and Benjen? That would secure that aliance, plus leave him free to marry his true love, Ashara, securing yet another aliance? He married, because he was the eldest, and it was his duty. That was the kind of person Ned was.

It was my impression that it was touch and go with Hoster Tully joining the rebellion and that his price were marriages of both his daughters to the High Lords. I strongly doubt that he would have agreed to subsitute Benjen for Ned. And if Ned was indeed in love with Ashara, he would have gotten out of marriage to Cat if there was a honourable way to do so - i.e. if Benjen was acceptable.

[Beppie]

Hi all, I'm new here, but I found this post so interesting that I had to reply. (When I refer to other people's theories, please forgive me if I don't attribute them directly-- I'm drawing on so many people in this discussion that it would get things muddled if I tried to keep them all separate).

When I first read ASoIF, years ago, and encountered the R+L=J theory it didn't ring true to me at all, but on my recent re-reading it seemed very plausible. I'm not sure that I have a firm opinion on it yet, but I am definitely leaning towards R+L=J.

At the same time, I do agree that N+A=J is plausible-- as has been mentioned, the fact is that if R+L=J is true, then N+A=J NEEDS to be plausible in order for Ned and Lyanna's deception about Jon's conception to be believed. If Jon is Lyanna and Rhaegar's son, and Ned takes him home, it has got to be incredibly plausible story, so that Robert doesn't get suspicous and order Jon gutted. The plausibility of N+A=J or N+Anyone=J is necessary should Ned carry off the deception.

Several people have mentioned Ned's honour-- now I don't believe it's impossible that Ned had an affair, but some people have suggested that deceiving Jon about his parantage is a far greater dishonour (and therefore far more less likely) on Ned's part. However, one of the things we do learn about Ned is that he will sacrifice his honour for the sake of someone he loves, especially a child-- he does so in confessing his "treachery" when he knew very well, from Cersei's own mouth, that Joffrey and his siblings were not trueborn. Yet he was willing to do this because Sansa's life had been threatened. Whether Ned cheated on Catelyn or not, it is totally plausible that he would tell a lie-- and a big one that influences the whole kingdom-- to save the life of an innocent baby.

Other people have also suggested that it would have been safe for Jon at King's Landing, because after all, Robert had seen him at Winterfell. However, notice that while Jon is not hidden at Winterfell, he is kept in the background, where he won't really be noticed-- in short, he is very unlikely to attract Robert's attention. We know that Jon was kept from the same table as the King by Catelyn, but from what we know about Cat, she felt that it was inappropriate for Jon to be at the same table as the "real" Starks at any time. Meanwhile Robert (whose opinion it is that really counts here) isn't really the type to feel offended by bastards, having sired so many himself-- and he doesn't seem to have been too hung up about appearances of propriety at the dinner table. Ned could have given into Catelyn in this instance because he didn't want Robert to get too close to Jon. However, if Ned took Jon to King's Landing, to pursue some honourable career there, like so many other bastards, there was all too great a chance that Jon would come into closer contact with Robert (and there's also the great argument mentioned by others that some people in King's Landing like Pycelle could have recognised Targaryen in him).

Honestly, I think the best argument against R+L=J is the one that someone mentioned earlier on about the direwolves all being from the same litter-- this just works better schematically if Jon is Ned's natural son. It's not conclusive though, as it could simply refer to that generation of Stark children.

Another interesting thing to consider is Jon's name-- clearly he's named for Jon Arryn-- however, as we see in AFfC, naming one's bastard son after a distinguished figure could be taken as something of an insult. I don't know what it would prove, but it is interesting to consider-- why would Ned or Lyanna choose to name him Jon? And could Jon Arryn have been in on the secret?

[commando penguin]

So basically, this is the cliff notes version of your theory:

You refuse to belive that there's any way Ashara could have commited suicide.

You refuse to belive R+L=J, because it's too commonly accepted.

Therefore Jon is the son of Ned and Ashara.

LMAO

holy christwagon. that was insanely funny 4 sum reason

[Aurane Waters]

IMO Jon is the bastard son of Ned and Ashara, and Ashara did genuinely kill herself because she knew Ned's sense of honour and all that would prevent him from staying with Ashara, so she killed herself and Ned went off with Catelyn taking Jon with him. Jon will probably never find out who his mother is in my opinion, but I don't think it would be beyond hope to think something could happen if and when he meets Dany, (as Aemon said, she is the reincarnation of the random champion of light, not Stannis- I'd be more inclined to trust Aemon than Melisandre) and I suspect the two of them will wanna get together but Jon's sense of duty will stop him. Well, maybe. bah. Jon rules.

[Grant Dempsey]

I'm mostly a believer in the R+L=J theory. Not because I believe Eddard Stark incapable of having had an affair, though... I wasn't actually aware of the R+L=J idea until I came online to discuss the novels after having read them, which means that, throughout my time spent reading them before doing so, I did accept the story of Wylla being Jon Snow's mother (obviously with Eddard Stark as the father). It was something I accepted of his character already, and so I have no bias against the idea. I don't think it would be out-of-character for him anyway...particularly since, if Jon Snow really was his son, his apparent remorse and shame was befitting of his sense of honor. As for the N+A=J theory...

First of all, the story of Ashara Dayne's suicide simply didn't strike me as odd or unbelievable. The tale about her sorrow over losing Eddard Stark to Catelyn Tully and her grief over Arthur Dayne's death at his hands driving her to throw her life away seemed to add up, to me. I'm not sure what the problem with that is, exactly, particularly since we (as far as I know) have no real sense of Ashara Dayne's own personality -- and thus mental and emotional stability -- anyway.

As for Arthur Dayne's death, I wouldn't dismiss it as a motive for her suicide just because it "should have been a given" for her that the life of a man of the Kingsguard was never certain. What could have upset her so much may not have been only her brother's death in itself either, but also the fact that the man she loved was the one who killed him. The division, the collapse of relationships, the "brother versus brother" sort of situation, throughout Westeros, caused by Robert's Rebellion, in how it applied to two men whom she both loved, how they were forced to battle one another to the death. So, the idea of the situation itself as a whole, more than the outcome on its own.

Besides, Ashara's suicide not coming immediately after learning of Ned's marriage to Catelyn or of Arthur's death doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. I would think it natural enough if her sorrow and grief had built up and built up over the months until she finally did kill herself.

Besides, all the clues and foreshadowing in the novels seem to reflect R+L=J most, particularly Daenerys Targaryen's vision of "a pale blue rose growing in a wall of ice". Those pale blue roses have always been an image specifically attached to Lyanna Stark and her death (and I recall that the crown Rhaegar Targaryen gave her in naming her Queen of Love and Beauty was one made up of those roses), not merely Starks in general. They were "the pale blue roses she loved so much".

[Nightstar]

Ned married a girl because it was what tradition called for, and he was honor bound to do it. If he was so in love with Ashara, and if the marriage was nothing more than a piece needed for revenge, why not arrange the marriage with Cat and Benjen? That would secure that aliance, plus leave him free to marry his true love, Ashara, securing yet another aliance?

Well, I imagine Hoster Tully wouldn't see things that way.

It's like Lady Westerling says "Lords and heirs, no second sons or household knights."

Tully would want his eldest married to a Lord, not some second son like Benjen.

But otherwise, I agree that Jon is more apt to be the son of Rhaegar/ Lyanna than Ned/Ashara.

This is partly wishful thinking on my part, because Rhaegar fascinates while Ned is a bore, imo.

But also, I don't consider Ned bright enough to come up with some complex game of child-switching and mysterious disappearances culminating in all sorts of bastard children turning up once grown.

One, yes- but more than that? Too much of a stretch.

[maestro]

IMO Jon is the bastard son of Ned and Ashara, and Ashara did genuinely kill herself because she knew Ned's sense of honour and all that would prevent him from staying with Ashara, so she killed herself and Ned went off with Catelyn taking Jon with him. Jon will probably never find out who his mother is in my opinion, but I don't think it would be beyond hope to think something could happen if and when he meets Dany, (as Aemon said, she is the reincarnation of the random champion of light, not Stannis- I'd be more inclined to trust Aemon than Melisandre) and I suspect the two of them will wanna get together but Jon's sense of duty will stop him. Well, maybe. bah. Jon rules.

Well, if there is only 1 child (N+A=J) then what was the promise Lyanna have Ned make to her. And why would Ned take the child, resulting in both Ashara and Catelyn becoming upset. Ashara commit's suicide and Catelyn is insulted everytime she sees Jon. I don't exactly know the timeline, if Ashara killed herself while Ned was there and there was noone left to care for Jon it's more plausible. But then there still is the promise (which could be everything..)

[Lady Blackfish]

I think the fact that Cat thinks it IS Ashara just offers up too much irony for it to actually be Ashara.

Also, and I know many disagree with me here, but Ned doesn't seem to be the love at first sight type to me. I guess it could happen; I think he may have found her exceedingly attractive, but calling it twoo wuv is going a bit far imho. Honor and Arthur Dayne is what took Ned to Starfall. If there is another reason I would rather say that Ned was made privy to what Ashara knew, and Ashara was made privy to what Elia knew, and Elia was up to Something, and Ned was more complicit in things (and had more secrets) than we are aware of. My pet crackpot.

[Artanaro]

I think the fact that Cat thinks it IS Ashara just offers up too much irony for it to actually be Ashara.

That shows the beauty of it all. Martin tells you in the first book who Jon's mother is, and yet no one will believe him, because there is no reason to. Ashara is a major unknown. This proves how good a writer he is. People say how only people on the forums think R+L=J is true, but that's not really the case. Anyone who reads AGOT a few times will generally come to the same conclusion. I thought it was true also, until I started thinking about possible alternatives that could explain Jon and Ned as well. When I came upon my theory, I found it worked much better than R+L=J.

On the matter of Ned, most people agree with you. Problems arise from the fact we don't know what Ashara did after Harrenhal or even during Robert's Rebellion.

Artanaro

[Grant Dempsey]

Artanaro, I feel I should point out that, while others' arguments rely on their own impression of Eddard Stark (although I agree with you that he was not "incapable" of having an affair and thus fathering a bastard), yours relies just as much on your impression of Ashara Dayne, whose personality -- aside from her love and indeed the story of her suicide -- we have no actual sense of at all.

Also, in another thread (I'm responding here so as not to hijack that one), you pointed out Bael the Bard as an example of winter roses being imagery for a character other than Lyanna Stark. In response, I'd point out how much the idea behind the legend of Bael the Bard resembled R+L=J. The winter roses being connected to Lyanna Stark and Bael the Bard could thus even be considered another clue, not a contradiction.

[Artanaro]

I feel I should point out that, while others' arguments rely on their own impression of Eddard Stark (although I agree with you that he was not "incapable" of having an affair and thus fathering a bastard), yours relies just as much on your impression of Ashara Dayne, whose personality -- aside from her love and indeed the story of her suicide -- we have no actual sense of at all.

I agree with this point. Martin, as with most things in life, doesn't give you all the facts needed to make the best guess, so you must infer based on a limited understanding of data and people. My arguement follows these lines in many ways. Why Ned doesn't mention Jon as one of his children is a good example of me doing this. Could my explanation be total BS? Very possibly. But on similiar lines, the R+L=J feels Ned's shame toward Jon is easily explained by a kid not knowing the names of his dead parents. I find fault with that. The reader's perspective is as far from black and white as the characters in the book.

In reference to Ashara, I don't know her emotional state. Nevertheless, you can find arguements against the explained cause of her death. The fact her body was never found. The fact she would know about Ned's marriage long before he arrived there. The fact she had other siblings. The fact Arthur was a member of the Kingsguard. The fact Ned goes to her, then she "commits" suicide. All these things raise alarms. I must infer about Ashara's psychological state, but these are good arguements, which support my logical interpretation.

Also, in another thread (I'm responding here so as not to hijack that one), you pointed out Bael the Bard as an example of winter roses being imagery for a character other than Lyanna Stark. In response, I'd point out how much the idea behind the legend of Bael the Bard resembled R+L=J. The winter roses being connected to Lyanna Stark and Bael the Bard could thus even be considered another clue, not a contradiction.

Now here's a stretch I must disagree with. Correlation doesn't prove causation, but parallelism definitely doesn't support anything. The problem with using the blue rose in the wall as evidence that Jon is the child of Lyanna Stark is because it's totally subjective to the reader or your take on the issue. My reference to Bael is the fact Martin has used blue roses to describe other Starks as well. Lyanna doesn't get a monopoly on all imagery belonging to blue roses. It could be refering to the son of Ned; it could be Lyanna's child; hell, it could be Benjen for an interpretation as well. However, if the choice of imagery was a dragon or a flame, a case could be made, because that could not explained any other way.

R+L=J comes down to people finding an explanation that is not contradicted and for subjective reasons choose that theory. (Ned wouldn't have a bastard is the true reason for most people). The theory works fine on many levels, but certain things always bugged me about it, such as why Ashara's body was never found conveniently after Ned goes to see her. When I came up with my explanation about how there are two babies, I screened it with everything in the book, I found personally that it made more sense. Everyone is free to make their own preference upon which to believe, however, but I promise to reply to any thread which treats R+L=J as fact.

Artanaro

[Grant Dempsey]

In reference to Ashara, I don't know her emotional state. Nevertheless, you can find arguements against the explained cause of her death. The fact her body was never found. The fact she would know about Ned's marriage long before he arrived there. The fact she had other siblings. The fact Arthur was a member of the Kingsguard. The fact Ned goes to her, then she "commits" suicide. All these things raise alarms. I must infer about Ashara's psychological state, but these are good arguements, which support my logical interpretation.

Your arguments are, still, based primarily on your assumption that Ashara Dayne was an otherwise emotionally stable individual and mean that her suicide and the reasons for it should only be judged by that standard. I feel this is an especially significant point in that the story of her suicide has been one of the only few things we do actually know about her character. To cast it aside would essentially require that we build an entirely new impression of her character, around the belief that her suicide does not add up mostly because of various other assumptions (about how she may have reacted to or been prepared for certain events).

Ashara Dayne's body having never been found is a reasonable argument in itself, yes. It does leave the possibility open. Her "delayed reaction" to learning of Eddard Stark's marriage, in regard to her suicide, doesn't suggest to me that there was something "wrong" with the story. The implication would be that her sorrow grew over that period of time until she could no longer take it. Suicide isn't always going to be immediate. Ultimately, the points you listed can indeed be seen and argued as supporting N+A=J, but they do require assumptions in themselves (they do not seem to be active clues in favor of the idea -- but rather details which could fit N+A=J if it were true) and they can be argued against, because of that. So, it's not very fair to insist that others are merely biased "only for their impressions of Eddard Stark" when you're making more assumptions about Ashara Dayne than they are about him.

Now here's a stretch I must disagree with. Correlation doesn't prove causation, but parallelism definitely doesn't support anything.

It's valid, and it's as logical as assuming the winter roses had another symbolic purpose, I would say.

The story of Bael the Bard and the Stark maiden he fathered a child on was the only other event in which winter roses were used as specific imagery, and, again, that story was rather similar to the circumstances proposed through R+L=J. Bael the Bard and the Stark maiden disappeared together, as did Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark. Bael the Bard fathered a child on the Stark maiden during the time of their disappearance, as did Rhaegar Targaryen on Lyanna Stark. Also, let's not forget that the crown Rhaegar Targaryen placed on Lyanna Stark's head whilst naming her Queen of Love and Beauty was one made up of winter roses, which could have been the origin of her love of them to begin with. (Thus it could be argued that the imagery was connected to Rhaegar Targaryen himself as well, just as it was connected to Bael the Bard -- and not only the Stark maiden -- in the legend.)

You'll have to convince me that there is truly a stretch of logic in that overall comparison -- and in the impression that the symbolic use of winter roses in both stories dramatically connect the two -- or that it's "definitely not support for anything". I see it as a rather strong point, certainly stronger than the suggestion that they merely represented Starks in general. After all, the winter roses, as far as I can remember, were not used as such a dramatic symbol for any other Starks or Stark legends.

[Artanaro]

Your arguments are, still, based primarily on your assumption that Ashara Dayne was an otherwise emotionally stable individual and mean that her suicide and the reasons for it should only be judged by that standard.

For something to be judged, there must be a standard it can be compared against. Here's how my logic works. If Ashara Dayne is an emotionally stable person, then the public reasons for her death do not add up. So for R+L=J to work, you must argue she wasn't emotionally stable. This is a big assumption, but by itself I could perhaps understand if it's the only big assumption. That's not the case, however. We also must assume the manner of her death prevented the recovery of her body. Possible again, but it's another big assumption. So far though everything is possible. But R+L=J requires some big assumptions of it's own.

I feel this is an especially significant point in that the story of her suicide has been one of the only few things we do actually know about her character. To cast it aside would essentially require that we build an entirely new impression of her character, around the belief that her suicide does not add up mostly because of various other assumptions (about how she may have reacted to or been prepared for certain events).

Here's the thing. We don't know this is true. You stated your opinion on the issue. My opinion is your wrong. Opinions don't prove anything. You're assuming, because it's one of the first things we hear about Ashara that it's true. The actual evidence about Ashara's character doesn't come from Catelyn, but from the Reeds. The story of the knight of the laughing tree reveals Ashara as a sociable girl (the laughing girl with purple eyes). Perhaps she's a manic depressive, but that's another assumption. Either way, you must assume she is either emotionally unstable or the death was faked. There's no in between. Just because people want to take the first thing they hear about Ashara as fact, doesn't make it so. Ned tells Robert that Jon's mother's name was Wylla, but why do people have no trouble casting that aside. Simple. Personal preference.

Her "delayed reaction" to learning of Eddard Stark's marriage, in regard to her suicide, doesn't suggest to me that there was something "wrong" with the story.

Yes, because you've made up your mind on R+L=J for whatever real reasons. It's like the blue rose. People see it symbolize Lyanna's child, because it agrees with their theory. Not because it's a logical conclusion.

SPOILER: AFFC

Martin has shown a few suicides in the series, but they all come in AFFC. Arys Oakheart is one. He chooses to charge into Areo Hotah's armed guard. His choice to die happens in a short time frame. He could have waited, but his reasons were apparent so he made his choice. Generally, people who don't attempt suicide immediately after their reasons for doing so, won't carry out their attempt. A second suicide is Obara's mother. She kills herself indirectly through alcohol. Her death took months, because she didn't have the ability to end her life. If she was ever able to kill herself, it would have been immediately after Oberyn took her child, but she never could. She had to choose an indirect course to end her life. Suicide isn't as easy most people would like to think. There are natural psychological mechanisms that seek to preserve one's own life. There must be some major emotional turmoil to provide the possibility of suicide.

When Ashara's death is so convenient to the point she waits for Ned to bring her Arthur's sword, stuff seems wrong.

Suicide isn't always going to be immediate. Ultimately, the points you listed can indeed be seen and argued as supporting N+A=J, but they do require assumptions in themselves (they do not seem to be active clues in favor of the idea -- but rather details which could fit N+A=J if it were true) and they can be argued against, because of that.

No, but if anyone is going to use Ned's marriage to Catelyn as reasons, her death should have happened earlier. The longer a person delays, the less likely they are to carry out the act. My arguement is based on assumptions, but so is R+L=J. By saying my theory for N+A=J is debatable, doesn't make R+L=J any less so.

So, it's not very fair to insist that others are merely biased "only for their impressions of Eddard Stark" when you're making more assumptions about Ashara Dayne than they are about him.

It's valid, and it's as logical as assuming the winter roses had another symbolic purpose, I would say.

No matter what someone thinks of Eddard Stark, there is a personal bias. It comes from whether you believe he could personally father a bastard or couldn't. Being biased doesn't mean your wrong. It just means the facts cannot determine one way or another, so opinion enters into considerations. The question about whether Ned would engage in sexual activity before marriage or after his marriage to Catelyn reflects the subjective nature of R+L=J and N+A=J. My complaint is people list some of their chosen verses of imagery to support their opinion. But it all comes back to a simple opinion. That doesn't make it any more (or less) right.

The story of Bael the Bard and the Stark maiden he fathered a child on was the only other event in which winter roses were used as specific imagery, and, again, that story was rather similar to the circumstances proposed through R+L=J. Bael the Bard and the Stark maiden disappeared together, as did Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark. Bael the Bard fathered a child on the Stark maiden during the time of their disappearance, as did Rhaegar Targaryen on Lyanna Stark.

People see what they want to see, that's why imagery is a poor way to prove a theory. If you want to say the choice of a blue rose supports a child of Lyanna Stark, believe whatever you like. But logically here's what can be symbolized by a blue rose. Blue is a color characteristic of winter. Roses are popular with girls/women and often used to symbolize them. Since there are few women at the wall, it's a good bet (though not definitivly) it's not symbolizing a girl. But to suggest it denotes a child of Lyanna, because she liked blue roses is simply wishful thinking. Jon is a Stark on both theories. Starks are characteristic of winter, which is why Bael the Bard chose to use a blue rose himself.

I'm not saying anyone has to believe my theory, but for anyone to think there's concrete evidence for R+L=J are just basing it on opinions, not facts. But as I say, there are no facts to contradict the theory either.

Also, let's not forget that the crown Rhaegar Targaryen placed on Lyanna Stark's head whilst naming her Queen of Love and Beauty was one made up of winter roses, which could have been the origin of her love of them to begin with. (Thus it could be argued that the imagery was connected to Rhaegar Targaryen himself as well, just as it was connected to Bael the Bard -- and not only the Stark maiden -- in the legend.)

You could argue that, but you would be reaching. Starks and winter go together. Blue roses are often referred to as winter roses. Rhaegar was not the first person to make this connection, nor will he be the last. A blue rose has been symbolic of Starks in the past, but to categorize it as evidence of Lyanna's child is choosing imagery to support your belief. You aren't showing proof, just that you think it fits what Martin writes. You may very well be right, but I have seen nothing to make me believe it to be the case over N+A=J.

I find Ned being Jon's father, far better explains Ashara's disappearance, Ned's shame towards Jon (because his mother is still alive), his refusal to tell Catelyn who the child's mother really is. Yes, this is my opinion. But I think it's right, just as you think your right. Too bad we are going to have to wait a while to find out.

You'll have to convince me that there is truly a stretch of logic in that overall comparison -- and in the impression that the symbolic use of winter roses in both stories dramatically connect the two -- or that it's "definitely not support for anything".

Here's the crux of the problem that I have with people who argue R+L=J. It comes down to being unable to disapprove a negative (a similiar situation, if someone asked you to prove God doesn't exist, how would you go about doing that?). I can't disprove R+L=J, because I can't prove one way or another beyond a reasonable doubt. But the burden of evidence is on the person proposing the theory. There is no evidence that Jon is Lyanna's child. There is evidence Lyanna had a child, but there is nothing beyond that. I can't prove your logic is stretching, because it's your opinion. You can't make people change their opinions.

For N+A=J

There is evidence that Ned and Ashara fell in love.

There is circumstanial evidence that Ashara faked her death.

There is evidence Jon is a Stark.

Does this make N+A=J true beyond a reasonable doubt? Nope. But R+L=J can't say the same either.

Artanaro

[maestro]

I wonder if you studied psychology. Cause you assume a lot about how people SHOULD react.

Why SHOULD Ashara have killed herself sooner if it was to be real and not a fake one? I think it's more logical that she is drowned in grieve when she hears of her love being betrothed to another woman. I don't think committing suicide is an impulsive decision. You don't jump cause something terrible just happened. You become sad, have a lot of grieve and because of that you become emotionally unstable. It's not a switch which turns on and off. It takes time for people to become emotionally unstable and who may end up committing suicide. Things are bad and because of their depression becomes worse with time. Everything is bad and it's a negative spiral which is hard to break through.

I also don't get your 'The longer a person delays, the less likely they are to carry out the act' theorie. From the moment the depression start, you don't think of committing suicide, at least not as seriously as when the depressions worsens. You ever had a bad day? I do. But I don't think of committing suicide. (pfew ) And people don't commit suicide because of an external factor, they commit suicide because of their own grieve. However, whatever the trigger of their grieve is it can be multiple. For instance, Ashara has a lot of things going on before she (fake) jumped. Not only the man she loved left her for another, he also killed her brother.

Also, you say she SHOULD not grieve about her brother, Ser Arthur, because she knew he joined the KG and already sacrificed his life when he joined. I don't know how you emotionally would react if your brother would join the army and got killed while fighting. But I know I would be upset, to say the least. We are human beings and can not shut of our feelings like some of the species in Star Trek. Sure, your brother chose this path. But that doesn't mean you don't feel any sorrow for what happens to him.

[Gorlab]

This board is really a fantastic source of discussions and opinions and information. But I must say this thread is pretty ridiculous. Let me summarize:

Facts that support this arguement over R+L=J:

First arguement.

Arthur Dayne wasn't her only brother from what we learn from Edric Dayne. She may have been close to him, but her brother is a member of the Kingsguard nevertheless. Varys says a kingsguard should die, "with sword in hand, defending one of the king's own blood." This belief is shared by about everyone in Westeros. I'm not saying Ashara should be happy her brother died, but I have no doubt she knew what that cloak meant, like every other person on the continent. Members of the Kingsguard do not run. And she would understand what Ned would be forced to do under the circumstances. Even Edric Dayne doesn't use him as an excuse why Ashara died. But if part of the supposed story is wrong, that casts doubts on the rest as well. So carrying on.

So in other words because Arthur Dayne died he must have been protecting a member of the king's own blood. Using your same logic if Ser Loras dies from his assault on Dragonstone he must have been protecting a member of the king's blood. First argument disproved.

Second arguement.

Also, here's another fact that supports this theory. Throughout ASOIAF, there are many examples of bastards. Ramsey Snow and the Glover bastard were each raised by their mother. Jon is a remarkable break with tradition, because his "father" chose to raise him at Winterfell. However, if Ashara was Jon's mother and alive, it seems by all standards she should have raised Jon in accord with Westeros custom. So this far better explains her suicide or possible fake death then that she was grief stricken by the death of her brother and suffering a broken heart from Ned marrying Catelyn.

So what you are saying here is Ashara killed herself because Ned took their son to raise? Alternately if L is Jon's mother Ned would have taken her son to raise as there would have been no mother to raise him. Honestly this point is at *best* equally plausable for both theories and in all honesty supports R+L=J moreso than A+N...if Jon was in fact Ashara's son she would have had a very powerful incentive to not suicide. But again this "argument" is at absolute best a push for the two theories. Second argument disproved.

Third arguement.

It's the timing of her suicide, which throws off many warning signals. For the stated account to be true, Ashara Dayne should not find out about Ned and Catelyn's marriage until Ned comes to her. But it seems awfully hard to believe she got no word by raven. We know for sure Ned married Catelyn before the Trident. This leaves months for Ashara to receive the news. Every person (Sandor Clegane as one example) in Westeros knows about Edmure's upcoming marriage to a Frey, as well as Robb's marriage to a Westerling. So I find it hard to believe she waited until Ned arrived in order to off herself, if a broken heart is all it took. And why choose a manner of death that leaves no trace of her demise or any possibility for a funeral. This makes the entire incident very suspicious. Yes it's possible she died of a broken heart, but very unlikely.

Unanswered questions about the timing of her death mean that she's Jon's mother? Come on now! There are plenty of explanations for the unknown questions here that are totally independant of Jon's parentage. Again if N+A=J the above makes no sense, but if R+L=J and Ned took Jon and claimed him as his own bastard and told Ashara that, and Ashara was in love with Ned that could very well be reason for her to take her own life (man she loves marries another and fathers a bastard on yet another woman but won't have her). Third argument is more in favor of R+L=J than your theory!

Fourth arguement.

...But there's something more important to be considered here. If Jon is truly the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, why would Ned bring the child to the company of the Daynes. Wylla would know for sure she wasn't the mother, so Eddard runs a grave risk by taking on people to conceal Rhaegar and Lyanna's story. Any number could reveal that this child wasn't Wylla's and that his origins are a mystery. So what reason could he have with making Wylla assume to be the mother of the child. The obvious answer is to conceal the mother's identity.

The child needs a wetnurse, who else would Ned have taken him too? The "grave risk" mentioned would hold with *any* wetnurse if R+L=J.

But how do you reconcile such a plot without revealing such a grave secret to Wylla.

Who says you do. All Ned has to tell Wylla is its his son and claim the mother died. Again he has to take Jon *somewhere* regardless of who the parents are. The above arguments hold true for any combination of parents.

Keep in mind Neds internal thoughts about Jon fit with R+L=J but do not fit with A+N=J.

Keep in mind if A+N=J there is *no* real reason to conceal his parentage. If, however, R+L=J there is *plenty* of reason to conceal it from Robert.

I can go on and on for reasons why R+L=J works and A+N=J does not work but there are endless threads all over about this. In this thread I have seen *zero* reason whatsoever that A+N=J is any more likely than R+L=J and *plenty* that its less likely.

I'm not saying that R+L=J is 100% the case (though I do believe it to be true) but I can say with confidence that A+N=J is 100% guaranteed false.

[Artanaro]

I don't think committing suicide is an impulsive decision. You don't jump cause something terrible just happened. You become sad, have a lot of grieve and because of that you become emotionally unstable. It's not a switch which turns on and off.

Consider what the National Institute of Mental Health has to say.

Is suicide related to impulsiveness?

Impulsiveness is the tendency to act without thinking through a plan or its consequences. It is a symptom of a number of mental disorders, and therefore, it has been linked to suicidal behavior usually through its association with mental disorders and/or substance abuse. The mental disorders with impulsiveness most linked to suicide include borderline personality disorder among young females, conduct disorder among young males and antisocial behavior in adult males, and alcohol and substance abuse among young and middle-aged males. Impulsiveness appears to have a lesser role in older adult suicides. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder that has impulsiveness as a characteristic is not a strong risk factor for suicide by itself. Impulsiveness has been linked with aggressive and violent behaviors including homicide and suicide. However, impulsiveness without aggression or violence present has also been found to contribute to risk for suicide.

Now, are all suicides based on impulsiveness? No, but why is Ashara Dayne so willing to suddenly taking her life into her hands when she's had many reasons to do so before. Ned's marriage to Catelyn should have been known long before Ned arrived at Starfall. Elia (and possibly Rhaegar as well) was a good friend of hers, but she should have known about her death for over a month.

It takes time for people to become emotionally unstable and who may end up committing suicide. Things are bad and because of their depression becomes worse with time. Everything is bad and it's a negative spiral which is hard to break through.

Many people experience bad things in their life. People lose loved ones, suffer violent attacks, and have many personal negative events. But most people do not take their own life. If Ashara Dayne has a mental condition that put her at risk for suicide, she had more than enough motivation to commit suicide before Ned arrived at Starfall. If as you say, it takes time to become emotionally unstable, she most likely would have performed the act some time after Ned left her. And the fact no body was recovered just raises more questions.

I also don't get your 'The longer a person delays, the less likely they are to carry out the act' theorie. From the moment the depression start, you don't think of committing suicide, at least not as seriously as when the depressions worsens. You ever had a bad day? I do. But I don't think of committing suicide. (pfew )

The logic is simple. First, Ashara either has a mental disorder or she doesn't. Some studies say as many as 70% of suicide victims suffer from major depression or bipolar (manic-depressive) disorder. If she doesn't have one, she's most likely not going to kill herself. The common case where people wait to kill themselves is for people who experience such a great deal of depression, they lack the energy to take their life. In these cases, when they begin to leave their depression is when they're most suseptible to rash actions.

And people don't commit suicide because of an external factor, they commit suicide because of their own grieve. However, whatever the trigger of their grieve is it can be multiple. For instance, Ashara has a lot of things going on before she (fake) jumped. Not only the man she loved left her for another, he also killed her brother.

Also, you say she SHOULD not grieve about her brother, Ser Arthur, because she knew he joined the KG and already sacrificed his life when he joined. I don't know how you emotionally would react if your brother would join the army and got killed while fighting. But I know I would be upset, to say the least.

I have never said she shouldn't grieve. I have said it's not enough alone to warrant suicide. Arthur's death is the distinction between Lord Tully's death and Theon's murder of Bran and Rickon to Catelyn. Catelyn loved all three immeasurably. But Bran and Rickon's deaths put her into an irrational state of mind, while Lord Tully's death did not.

One: You are getting your information from a bastard born child. As we all know, kids are full of shit, so how do we know this one isn't talking out of his ass?

My sources for information have been Edric Dayne, the Reeds, and Catelyn. I do not understand your comment unless you think I was referencing Edric Storm.

Two: Where is Lyanna's bastard child?

Reread my post. According to my theory, Ashara took Lyanna's child to the Free Cities or somewhere else beyond Westeros.

Also, you say she SHOULD not grieve about her brother, Ser Arthur, because she knew he joined the KG and already sacrificed his life when he joined. I don't know how you emotionally would react if your brother would join the army and got killed while fighting. But I know I would be upset, to say the least.

You took my comments out of context. I have never said she shouldn't be sad about losing her brother, Arthur. I'm saying that's not reason enough to warrant the depression associated with suicide. If she is a normal person, she doesn't kill herself based on arguement presented for doing so.

Plus, faking a suicide is too soap opera for GRRM. Her popping out of nowhere and saying, "Oh, I just faked it" seems stupid as hell to me.

And having some child who believes himself a bastard, but is really the rightful ruler of Westeros, isn't similiar to a soap opera? This is just personal preference.

So in other words because Arthur Dayne died he must have been protecting a member of the king's own blood. Using your same logic if Ser Loras dies from his assault on Dragonstone he must have been protecting a member of the king's blood. First argument disproved.

Literacy is a dying art. The context of my statement is that Arthur Dayne died doing the duty of a kingsguard. Ashara should be sad for the loss of her brother, but his death would not be totally unexpected. It's the distinction between Catelyn losing her sons and her losing her father. I imagine her love for both would be on similiar levels, but Lord Tully's death was expected, which reduced it's impact. Bran and Rickon's "deaths" weren't, making it much more painful. In a martial society where many of your relatives will die in battle, death is still a sad loss, but it's expected to a degree. No one says World War II was a terrible loss for American boys, because everyone knows they were doing what was right and needed to be done. When people lost their loved ones at Normandy or in Italy, they were still sad, but it wouldn't be entirely unexpected or without merit. There's a reason they are called "The Greatest Generation."

So what you are saying here is Ashara killed herself because Ned took their son to raise?

Please read this thread over. I can obviously tell you haven'd done so yet. I go through one possibility about what could better explain Ashara's death, but I do not say I believe it. Just that it's better than using Arthur and Ned's marriage as the reason. My stance is, Ashara took Lyanna's child to the Free Cities.

Artanaro

[NYC Falcon]

From AGoT

That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady." She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again.

------------------------

She slapped him.

"I shall wear that as a badge of honor," Ned said dryly.

"Honor, " she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"

====================

From ACoK

"Those who favor Stannis will call it proof. Those who support Joffrey will say it means nothing." Her own children had more Tully about them than Stark. Arya was the only one to show much of Ned in her features. And Jon Snow, but he was never mine. She found herself thinking of Jon's mother, that shadowy secret love her husband would never speak of. Does she grieve for Ned as I do? Or did she hate him for leaving her bed for mine? Does she pray for her son as I have prayed for mine?

They were uncomfortable thoughts, and futile. If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be. And it made no matter. Ned was gone now, and his loves and his secrets had all died with him.

====================

From ASoS

"My lady?" Ned said at last. "You have a basebom brother ... Jon Snow? "

"He's with the Night's Watch on the Wall." Maybe I should go to the Wall instead of Riverrun. Jon wouldn't care who I killed or whether I brushed my hair... "Jon looks like me, even though he's bastard-bom. He used to muss my hair and call me 'little sister."' Arya missed Jon most of all. just saying his name made her sad. "How do you know about Jon? "

"He is my milk brother."

"Brother?" Arya did not understand. "But you're from Dome. How could you and Jon be blood?"

"Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."

Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?"

"Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was bom."

"Jon never knew his mother. Not even her name." Arya gave Ned a wary look. "You know her? Truly?" Is he making mock of me? "if you lie I'll punch your face."

"Wylla was my wetnurse," he repeated solemnly. "I swear it on the honor of my House."

"You have a House?" That was stupid; he was a squire, of course he had a House. "Who are you?"

"My lady?" Ned looked embarrassed. "I'm Edric Dayne, the ... the Lord of Starfall."

Behind them, Gendry groaned. "Lords and ladies," he proclaimed in a disgusted tone. Arya plucked a withered crabapple off a passing branch and whipped it at him, bouncing it off his thick bull head. "Ow," he said. "That hurt." He felt the skin above his eye. "What kind of lady throws crabapples at people?""The bad kind," said Arya, suddenly contrite. She turned back to Ned. "I'm sorry I didn't know who you were. My lord."

"The fault is mine, my lady." He was very polite.

Jon has a mother. Wylla, her name is Wylla. She would need to remember so she could tell him, the next time she saw him. She wondered if he would still call her "little sister." I'm not so little anymore. He'd have to call me something else. Maybe once she got to Riverrun she could write Jon a letter and tell him what Ned Dayne had said. "There was an Arthur Dayne," she remembered. "The one they called the Sword of the Morning."

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw

herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

"Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled.

Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?"

"No. Did he know her?"

"Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring."

"Oh." Arya did not know what else to say. "Why did she jump in the sea, though? "

"Her heart was broken."

Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid. She couldn't say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt. "Did someone break it?"

He hesitated. "Perhaps it's not my place. .

"Tell me."

He looked at her uncomfortably. "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal - "

"That's not so. He loved my lady mother."

--------------

"I'm not afraid," she said. "That boy Ned said..."

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

"She killed herself, though," said Arya uncertainly. "Ned says she jumped from a tower into the sea."

"So she did," Harwin admitted, as he led her back, "but that was for grief, I'd wager. She'd lost a brother, the Sword of the Morning." He shook his head. "Let it lie, my lady. They're dead, all of them. Let it lie ... and please, when we come to Riverrun, say naught of this to your mother."

===================

Now, that's everything on Ashara Dayne.

Whatever so called 'theories' you have please base them on what Martin wrote.

From what I can gather she jumped into the sea because Eddard married Cat and knocked her up then knocked up one of her serving women.