Mafia 57.5

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1538727' date='Oct 1 2008, 12.18']I am pretty much in agreement here. Merlyn's analysis is the same as his early posting. It all looks nice, but it is lacking significant substance or conclusions. That's not to say I don't appreciate it, I do because it is making me think more.

I wish I wasn't entirely sure I am going to die tonight, I was going to try and pretend I didn't trust you in hopes that I'd somehow get passed over...it just isn't worth it though. At this point in my analysis, I have you down as an innocent. If you are guilty, good job. Unfortunately, it doesn't really make things clearer in terms of Farwynd-Merlyn-Stonetree connections. Stonetree's post with 'hard questions' from Day 1 gives me pause because it is interesting that Farwynd and Merlyn are two that questions are posed to. Hm, the only partnership that is impossible among those 3 is Farwynd-Merlyn from day 1 IMO. My gut right now is that Farwynd should be lynched today and Merlyn tomorrow.[/quote]

You are well aware that if both Botley and Orkwood have been inncent we will loose the game when we follow your scenario?


Anyway, I have to go now. Will be back in 4-6 hours.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1538777' date='Oct 1 2008, 12.55']Just to show a part what Saltcliffe presents us as "significant substantial" and "conclusive". :rolleyes:[/quote]
Who is playing this game? Fucking nobody is playing and it is pissing me off. I had been reading and rereading more than I've posted and it has been a complete waste of time because there is just so little there.

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1538777' date='Oct 1 2008, 12.55']Sorry, Saltcliffe, but I prefer my one. All you did so far is to tell us that Sunderly is innocent, a conclusion that I disagree with. He looks better than Stonetree, but not better than Farwynd. It's funny that it's just Sunderly that accuses me of licking up to you - [u]which I never did btw[/u].[/quote]
What makes Farwynd look good?

and:
[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1534971' date='Sep 29 2008, 03.19']Saltcliffe, Saltcliffe,.....
You know, in my setting we would be sitting here, waiting for a sexy waitress in a jaunty dirndl to bring us the next liter. :cheers:
In your setting we are doomed to sit here, tortured by terrorists with German accent, waiting for John McClane to safe our asses, while we are trying to hide the fact that Stonetree is McClane's wife.
:angry:[/quote][quote name='House Merlyn' post='1535179' date='Sep 29 2008, 10.03']Saltcliffe, in the meanwhile you can torture Farwynd, if you want to. ;)[/quote]
[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1535286' date='Sep 29 2008, 11.00']We have three lynches until we're fucked, so Saltcliffe is right here.[/quote][quote name='House Merlyn' post='1535291' date='Sep 29 2008, 11.01']Hey, [i]you [/i]were the one who has been accused of pushing too hard!!!!!!! :stunned:[/quote][quote name='House Merlyn' post='1535782' date='Sep 29 2008, 15.14']It wasn't a defense, it was a mixture of :stunned: and :P[/quote][quote name='House Merlyn' post='1535827' date='Sep 29 2008, 15.40']Trying to give the FM some hints, eh?[/quote]
[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1536252' date='Sep 29 2008, 18.36']It's amazing, I know. But listen, when I say "I feel a bit better about Orkwood", it's like "I feel a bit better about Saruman". And so on. ;)[/quote]
[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1537839' date='Sep 30 2008, 19.34']You are [i]that [/i]useless. :P[/quote]
Maybe some of it is just your joking style (which was something you wanted to string up Orkwood for), but there is a fucking lot.

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1538777' date='Oct 1 2008, 12.55']I try my best to get a grip on the game, if that is't good enough for you, I cannot change that. If I did not know you are innocent, you would be in big, big trouble now, because you make less and less sense. If Stonetree and Sunderly are the FM, they had an easy time to win this one. Although I think that a Farwynd/Stonetree partnership is more likely.[/quote]
I can't see you putting me in big trouble with what you've done thus far. In case you've missed it, anyone who is an FM has had a fucking easy go of it unless Botley or Orkwood were evil.

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1538779' date='Oct 1 2008, 12.58']You are well aware that if both Botley and Orkwood have been inncent we will loose the game when we follow your scenario?[/quote]
I don't care. I really just don't care at all.

[House Frey]

[b]Farwynd[/b].

[House Wythers]

Ok, I'm back. I've been more busy than I expected these days (and was slightly ill yesterday). I'm sorry if that makes you lose your cool, but RL is a bitch sometimes. If you want to lynch me for it go ahead, though it's pretty poor play in my opinion.

I'd rather we ended the game today (I think it's likely one of Orkwood or Botley was guilty) than tomorrow, so I'm going to study the possible partnerships.

From my point of view the most likely are:

Orkwood-Stonetree

and

Merlyn-Botley

though I'll dedicate some time to consider other less probable options like Sunderly-Merlyn.

[House Frey]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1538833' date='Oct 1 2008, 13.48']If you want to lynch me for it go ahead, though it's [u]pretty poor play [/u]in my opinion.[/quote]Story of this game.


What people seem to have difficulty understanding is that when you never post (regardless of the reason, if you are busy I at least have some sympathy for you) there is no way to clear you. Absolutely no reason to think you are innocent.

I suppose Stonetree makes more sense to lynch today as a possible partner to virtually everyone it seems like. Assuming Sunderly is innocent, the game couldn't end tomorrow if we lynch him because Merlyn and Farwynd cannot be partners. [b]Remove vote [/b]and vote [b]Stonetree[/b].

[House Wythers]

Ok, lets start with Merlyn and Botley.

Saltcliffe had a very insightful analysis of Botley in which he basically said he had said nothing and wasn't worth analysing. Quite true.

Merlyn completely ignores Botley. He doesn't mention him at all despite the fact that he insists a lot on how low posters should talk more.

E.g.:

[quote]I don't like people who don't contribute, who are gone for the rest of the day and who don't even dare to give us a little commitment by voting someone.[/quote]

That said, he doesn't mention other low posters like Wynch much either, seeming pretty Greyjoy centered on day one.

His reaction to Botley's death could be described as slightly irritated, though I concede this is quite vague:
[quote]So much for last words.


And eaten by a shark at the Octoberfest? 

Better idea![/quote]

Today he starts his analysis' using Botley's innocence as a starting point.

His argument seems pretty weak to me:
[quote]I will have a look at the vote counts first. This will be tough, since we don't have a CF. This is why I have to make some compromises. The main compromise is that I will base my analysis on the assumption that Botley was innocent.

Why? Because I don't think that any FM would dare to post only three times on day 1. It might happen, but it is very unlikely IMO, so I count Botley as innocent.[/quote]

The fact that Botley posted only three times means either he had serious RL issues or he was just a total noob and had serious game-play issues. Neither of these would have an impact on innocence or guilt. Though one could argue that weak FM teamsters are often coached by their partners the partner in question could have been extremely busy like... Merlyn!

So Merlyn could just be trying to confuse us by using a false premise as the base for all his argumentation.

All in all I think it's a pretty likely partnership, but now I have some time I want to examine them all with care. So next one coming up in a short while.

[House Mooton]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1538230' date='Oct 1 2008, 00.18']Of course I mention him to say I trust him, so that's not really likely to dispel any partnership suspicions you may harbor. Another point is looking for possible Sunderly partners, obviously not Botley, Orkwood unlikely, Stonetree unlikely, know myself to be innocent and trust Saltcliffe because of Wynch... that leaves Merlyn. Sunderly-Merlyn? I'd much sooner believe Merlyn-Botley or Stonetree-Orkwood.[/quote]

You're right, I missed that post.

I guess neither you nor Sunderly has been covert about your trust for each other.

I'll vote for [b]Merlyn[/b] then.

Merlyn can't be partnered with Orkwood--he attacked him quite a bit. That leaves Botley, Farwynd, and Sunderly as potential partners.

The reason I don't think Merlyn is partnered with Farwynd is that on Day 1, he told Saltcliffe to pressure Farwynd while Merlyn questioned the absent Greyjoy. When I'm evil, what I want to do is keep control over cases against my partner. Having Saltcliffe, an active, agressive player (now a PI) question my partner is not something I would want. If I had this crazy theory that Players A and B were connected, and A was my partner, and my goal was to vote out B, I'd build a case on both of them, tell another active player to pressure B, and then throw A some easy questions. Or question both of them myself. I would not split it up as Merlyn did.

I also don't think Greyjoy is a nonsensical kill for Merlyn to have made. Not a lot of people were down on Greyjoy on Day 1, but he would have been a likely target for the finder, since he didn't say a lot.

Botley is a likely partner for Merlyn-- Merlyn was around, but never voted Botley, as quick as he was to hop on the Orkwood bandwagon yesterday. If it's not Botley, that leaves only Sunderly. I mainly thought Sunderly was treating Merlyn too lightly, but I also realize this could be for...er...alt-guessing reasons. I don't want to elaborate, but let's just say more than just Merlyn can play that game.



*sigh* In all honesty, if I wasn't myself, but another copy of me playing a big game, I'd probably vote for me at this point. I really [i]want[/i] to participate more; I just have too hard a time finding time with work and class. I signed up for a small minigame thinking it would be less time consuming than a regular game, but in the grand old tradition of mafia, everyone goes out of control.


Edit: Gah, there was a gap of like 1.5 hours between the start and end of that post, since my boss came in and work stuff ensued...pardon the post overlap.

[House Frey]

Meh, I'd kind of like to vote Merlyn just to move things along...not really the safest move, though more and more he looks guilty. If work hadn't been so bad for Farwynd and Stonetree I think this would be a much easier decision.

[House Wythers]

Okay, so Stonetree-Orkwood. There's much more material for this one, since Orkwood lived a day longer and posted more.

Unlike Merlyn-Botley, Orkwood and Stonetree mention each other a great deal (though it's worth pointing out they don't actually interact).

Stonetree attacks Orkwood dislikers from the beginning of the game:
[quote name='Stonetree']3) Sunderly- Why are you going after Orkwood, but not Merlyn or Saltcliffe, when Orkwood was the first to bring the Greyjoy/Farwynd theory to everyone's attention? The only difference I can see between Orkwood and the other two is style; Orkwood does everything less aggressively than the other two. Aside from that, I'm suspicious that you're so suspicious of him.[/quote]

On one hand this is pretty blatant, on the other it was day one, and if Stonetree perceived Orkwood as imperiled he could have made an effort to give him a hand (if we consider them an experienced-inexperienced FM duo) since, as has been mentioned ad nauseam, this is a CFless game and distancing would probably be a low priority for FM teams.

When Saltcliffe enquires if Stonetree doesn't also suspect Merlyn for suspecting Orkwood he answers:
[quote name='Stonetree']I actually am suspicious of Merlyn for that reason too...I just forgot he had said that in addition to some of his other suspicious things, and that it wasn't just Sunderly who thought like that.[/quote]

I don't much like the "now that you remind me" tone this post has to it. I guess if you're hard pressed on time you give less attention to the detail, but this post rings some bells.

After the Wynch reveal Stonetree makes a post I didn't much like either (and said so before) for being too middle-ground.

[quote name='Stonetree']I'm here and not the finder. I actually believe Wynch...well, I forgot he was even playing, but I also think...was there even enough pressure on him at the moment at which he claimed for it to even be considered pressure? Orkwood voted for him, basically for making one-liners and not being around a lot. (That seems to be a common pattern in this game, that and being called aggressive) But does a lone vote from Orkwood, who isn't Well Liked by the more aggressive players (Saltcliffe anyway), even count as a real motivation to fake claim?

I'm going to hazard a guess of no.[/quote]

Again it sounds protective of Orkwood, implying he's not to blame for the reveal.

At one point (when the lynch seemd like inevitable) Stonetree steps back from Orkwood:

[quote name='Stonetree']So...I admit I could be wrong about Orkwood, I only had a positive impression of him early on day 1, and it's quickly gone downhill since then. I guess I just perceived Sunderly and Merlyn as picking on a weak target. Confession: I initially thought both Sunderly and Merlyn were innocent based purely on...um..."gut feeling"...but then the potential connection between them got in the way.

Re: Orkwood, although I don't like him, I think it's possible he could have meant 'partner' as in 'person who I would most likely be partnered with under X theory'...but it doesn't make a lot of sense. I'm just bringing it up as an alternate theory before I probably vote for him.[/quote]

Never actually voted for him though, and again this post doesn't give me good vibes. It seems like trying to distance (far too late, though).

Orkwood doesn't talk about Stonetree as much, he does a small re-read of him and concludes:
[quote]final thoughts: He hasnt posted much, maybe he is busy, but still it makes me feel bad about him, I wouldnt still vote him I need stronger reasons for it.[/quote]

As others have pointed out this is slightly suspicious. Also, Stonetree could have been complaining about his RL issues to Orkwood in private (apologizing to his partner for not being more active) motivating the "maybe he's busy" comment.

Finally, they both defend as a whole against Sunderly. Observe this:

[quote name='Stonetree']There's a bunch of people you've said you have good feelings about--Farwynd and Merlyn being two of them, since you want to vote [u]me or Orkwood[/u] today.[/quote]

[quote name='Orkwood']You re-read some members, you build a case against Botley, I like your case against him to some extent, but what gives me a bad feeling about you is that you redeem 2 other players without even rereading them or giving any specific reasons
while you are ready to vote for [u]Stonetree and me[/u] again without giving any good reasons[/quote]

Partnership or weird symbiosis?

I'm off to have supper now, but I'll be back in a couple of hours and have a look at other more unlikely partnerships (mainly Sunderly-Merlyn and Stonetree-Botley).

[Shadowbaby]

It is day 3.

5 players remain: Farwynd, Merlyn, Saltcliffe, Stonetree, Sunderly.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Merlyn (Stonetree)
1 vote for Stonetree (Saltcliffe)

3 players have not voted: Farwynd, Merlyn, Sunderly.

[House Clegane]

[b]Stonetree [/b]stinks

[House Wythers]

[b]Stonetree[/b]

[House Clegane]

Sorry Salty!!!!!!!!! :grouphug:

[House Frey]

Good, I'd rather the game be over now than win.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1539133' date='Oct 1 2008, 17.13']Good, I'd rather the game be over now than win.[/quote]

Oh, come on. We played well. You thought it was impossible for us to be partners and we were partners. That has to count for something!

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1539133' date='Oct 1 2008, 17.13']Good, I'd rather the game be over now than win.[/quote]

I'm sorry that the game has been frustrating you. I swear I wrote the whole analysis today for you only. And I was deeply disappointed when you brushed it aside. :(

[House Frey]

It was more other deficiencies than any groundbreaking play (House Farwynd 17 posts???).

Nevermind, I'm just grumpy from trying to carry a team that was busy, didn't care/play, etc. (Thanks to Sunderly though!).

[House Frey]

[b]remove vote[/b]

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1539146' date='Oct 1 2008, 17.22']It was more other deficiencies than any groundbreaking play (House Farwynd 17 posts???).

Nevermind, I'm just grumpy from trying to carry a team that was busy, didn't care/play, etc. (Thanks to Sunderly though!).[/quote]

I thought the day one distancing was pretty neat, but whatever. Anyway, now it's over, I was genuinely ill yesterday (spent most afternoon in bed) and have been extremely busy with work-related issues these last three days.

Otherwise I would have participated more.

[House Frey]

[b]vote merlyn[/b]

Shabba didn't post yet so the game didn't end right? :leaving:

I was just grumpy Mentat, you did play pretty well when you could be on. The distancing was a lot stronger than I expected anyone would without CF.