MAFIA 58

[House Targaryen]

SPOILER: This is a scene, Honest!

Hey they killed Kenning! he was Grief :cry: and a RI

It is day 2.

9 players remain: Botley, Farwynd, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Merlyn, Myre, Orkwood, Saltcliffe, Volmark.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

9 players have not voted: Botley, Farwynd, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Merlyn, Myre, Orkwood, Saltcliffe, Volmark.



PS I'll correct the counter when I have time. you have 32 hrs to lynch

[House Dondarrion]

We leave you guys 2 hours and a man on L-1 and the rest of you still can't make him hang?

As a non-partner game, I really don't understand that.

[House Clegane]

Yeh I have to say I was expecting to be dead right about now. I am innocent, but still it is usually best to lynch someone on the first day anyway.

Anyway, I think I agree with Botley that at least one, and quite possibly both of the SK were on the lynch mob. The lynch mob itself was Farwynd, Goodbrother, Myre, Harlaw and Orkwood.

Kenning was voting for Farwynd, I don't know which way to WIFOM this, it's probably irrelevant, the SK probably didn't like the whole appearance after the modkill-limit thing and that's why they bumped off Kenning

[House Dayne]

Don't understand it either.

Botley, seriously, I can understand that Merlyn wasn't your main suspect but to label him PI that early when he has done nothing to warrant it! I think he was genuinely busy, but does that make him innocent?

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1568066' date='Oct 26 2008, 18.48']I'd like to get a suspect ranking by Volmark, Farwynd and Saltcliffe. Saltcliffe has already given us a little insight in his suspciions, but has been not very concrete.[/quote]

I'm not too fond of Myre, Goodbrother or yourself.

I kinda like Orkwood and Farwynd.

The rest can go into an intermediate tyre of sorts.

I'm trying to think how to tell an SK from an innocent while they're alive and it isn't too easy, though.

What with the Drumm modkill and the lack of lynch we lost a day. We have 3 lynches (and 3 NKs...)left to kill a SK. I should think it's enough if we aren't too clumsy. The moment we get a right lynch the remaining SK can only kill once every other night, so that's a big advantage.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Myre' post='1568371' date='Oct 27 2008, 03.22']Don't understand it either.

Botley, seriously, I can understand that Merlyn wasn't your main suspect but to label him PI that early when he has done nothing to warrant it! I think he was genuinely busy, but does that make him innocent?[/quote]

In my eyes he has done enough to make him less suspicious than the rest of you (except of Goodbrother). The fact that Kenning is dead is a sign that Merlyn is not the odd night SK.

So, if you can understand why he wasn't my main suspect, why didn't you join me on Farwynd or Saltcliffe before you left? Voting for someone just for the sake of a lynch when there is more than enough time to find an alternative is poor gameplay IMO.


Finally, I have not been the only one who didn't vote for Merlyn. Saltcliffe and Volmark have not been around during the crucial time of the end of the day. I have to check again if they told us that they were absent.

[House Dayne]

I understand that he was not your main suspect, doesn't mean I agree with your reasons. Merlyn is certainly not PI in my book, he's a suspect and better take a shot at a suspect than waste a lynch. I've made the mistake in the past I don't want to repeat it.

The only people I considered less likely guilty yesterday and would probably have refused to vote for were Goodbrother and Orkwood.

Saltcliffe and Farwynd were not going to be lynched from what I could see of the situation and I had to go. Would maybe have been different if I could have stayed longer and if I had seen there were more people around.

You're right on the last point. Volmark left with a vote on me, which wasn't likely to achieve anything at this stage. As for Saltcliffe, he was apparently here but didn't bother to vote. He said at some point he had internet issues, but made a long post saying "Merlyn is inexistant" yet removed vote without casting one.

Speaking of Volmark,
[quote]What with the Drumm modkill and the lack of lynch we lost a day. We have 3 lynches (and 3 NKs...)left to kill a SK. I should think it's enough if we aren't too clumsy. The moment we get a right lynch the remaining SK can only kill once every other night, so that's a big advantage.[/quote]
this doesn't sit right with me.
So according to Volmark, we "lost a day" but it's no big deal. 1) Volmark doesn't mention his own responsibility in missing a lynch and thus "losing a day"; 2) I disagree that it's no big deal. Even if we still have good chances, 1 extra lynch is always good to take.

I'll start with a vote on [b]Volmark[/b].

[House Frey]

First off apologies for not being around at the end of the day, but I needed to sleep and my internet connection seems to have died. I still have no internet at home. Will try to get it sorted, but consider this my one and only chance to post today.

I would have to agree with Myre's reasoning for his vote on Volmoth.

[b]Vote Volmark[/b]

A no lynch is bad regardless of what else has happened. We need as much infomation as possible damn it.

If I can get things working at home I will be on later.
Cheers

Edit: Volmark not Volmoth

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='House Myre' post='1568387' date='Oct 27 2008, 05.16']Speaking of Volmark, this doesn't sit right with me.
So according to Volmark, we "lost a day" but it's no big deal. 1) Volmark doesn't mention his own responsibility in missing a lynch and thus "losing a day"; 2) I disagree that it's no big deal. Even if we still have good chances, 1 extra lynch is always good to take.

I'll start with a vote on [b]Volmark[/b].[/quote]

1) I didn't specially like the Merlyn mob (I'll probably comment more on it later). Also, day ended really early in the morning for me and I couldn't get on a computer on time to vote. When I left there was plenty of time for a lynch. Plus, what conceivable reason would a SK have NOT to want someone else lynched?

2) We have three lynches to find one SK amongst nine people, since the odds are good enough I think it's no big deal we missed a lynch (a small deal maybe?). It's obviously not optimal mafia performance, but then that's not what I was saying.

[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1568398' date='Oct 27 2008, 05.54']I would have to agree with Myre's reasoning for his vote on Volmoth.

[b]Vote Volmark[/b]

A no lynch is bad regardless of what else has happened. We need as much infomation as possible damn it.

If I can get things working at home I will be on later.
Cheers

Edit: Volmark not Volmoth[/quote]

*squawk*

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Volmark' post='1568423' date='Oct 27 2008, 08.06']2) [b]We have three lynches to find one SK amongst nine people[/b], since the odds are good enough I think it's no big deal we missed a lynch (a small deal maybe?). It's obviously not optimal mafia performance, but then that's not what I was saying.[/quote]

I just wanted to make sure I saved this quote.

I didn't like the idea of a Merlyn lynch either, but it was a hell of a lot better than no lynch. :rolleyes:

I'm at work and will pop in from time to time.

[House Wythers]

Other innocents need to get their shit together. Botley, I know you think you are the king here, but avoiding the lynch there was selfish and not good for the team even if you think Merlyn wasn't the best lynch. The only way I will [i]know[/i] if Merlyn is innocent is when either he, or I, dies. Now, he is in a good position to survive deep into the game and I fucking hope he is innocent because if he isn't, god help me, I will swear up and down and yell until I'm blue in the face about why you lynch day 1 in a CF game no matter what.

[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1568369' date='Oct 27 2008, 05.21']Kenning was voting for Farwynd, I don't know which way to WIFOM this, it's probably irrelevant, the SK probably didn't like the whole appearance after the modkill-limit thing and that's why they bumped off Kenning[/quote] You have two different thoughts in this sentence here, so it is a little odd. You don't think I killed Kenning, but you do think Kenning was killed because he came in after the modkill-limit? Is that correct? Sounds a bit like trying to suggest someone else run with the fact that you think I'd want to kill Kenning and then actually put forth your own theory that...frankly doesn't make a whole lot of sense. There are a lot of reasons that people have been NKed and I don't think that has ever been one of them. Perhaps the SK first sent in the mods' names as a joke because Kenning should have been dead anyway, but I don't see a killer actually killing for that reason.

[quote name='House Botley' post='1568377' date='Oct 27 2008, 05.41']In my eyes he has done enough to make him less suspicious than the rest of you (except of Goodbrother). The fact that Kenning is dead is a sign that Merlyn is not the odd night SK.[/quote] Dude, you need to think of the team at some point. I know I need to participate more and get going on some rereads, but you failed us at a crucial point by not voting. Frankly, I think that if Merlyn killed Kenning it would be an astute kill just to get this line of thinking. Kenning didn't really take a hard line against anyone and fits as a decent framejob on me, so I think there are a sufficient number of other reasons for the kill. Frankly, I'm surprised that they left you alive Botley. I suppose that means either you are an SK or it wasn't an attempt at framing me (probably the latter) because it would probably be more advantageous to get rid of you rather than Kenning.

[quote name='House Botley' post='1568377' date='Oct 27 2008, 05.41']So, if you can understand why he wasn't my main suspect, why didn't you join me on Farwynd or Saltcliffe before you left? Voting for someone just for the sake of a lynch when there is more than enough time to find an alternative is poor gameplay IMO.[/quote] It is just absurd that you think you should only vote for your main suspect and it makes me think that you are not innocent. That is an extremely naive type of approach to take and I'd expect better. All I've seen for your reasoning that Merlyn is innocent in your view is that he didn't try to deflect suspicion (in your eyes)...other than maybe here when there were 3 votes on him:[quote name='House Merlyn' post='1567836' date='Oct 26 2008, 15.33']Ok I have to go now again i'm afraid, but i've spent the last twenty minutes looking at 4 players. Here are my thoughts:
Goodbrother – siad hasn’t received role after mods said RI’s would not get role – disquieting. Votes for drum for no reason and then me for being rubbish – keeps it there till now. Assessment – not suspicious
Orkwood – talks a lot, makes a lot of sense, but my gut says fishy
Volmark – one substantial post, which is one more than me I know – basically hasn’t done anything to make me be suspicious or the opposite
Farwynd – just jokes really so far so nothing to go on
Ok so most suspicious to me is [b]Orkwood[/b], but i may well revise that when i get back[/quote]
Giving up other people to suspect is deflecting suspicion as well, so you're going to have to try another one for why you think Merlyn is innocent. Frankly, he looked pretty busy to me and nothing points to him being innocent IMO.

[Magic Mirror]

Morning, brothers and sisters.
Fail of the lynch is very disappointing, but not fatal. We can always pretend we lynched Drumm.
Kill of Kenning is confusing. He was quite lynchable, especially after direct refuse to axe Merlyn. Today he would be in even worse position than Volmark now. Possibilities: 1) there was a provisional, sent before Kenning's refusal and not changed later (might point to somebody who was absent at the end of day); 2) somebody (Farwynd?) was very afraid of Kenning; 3) the killer have used random.org, this happens from time to time.

I agree that Merlyn's play during my absence shows, up to some degree, indifference not in character for a killer. So I am against lynching him today.

Volmark looks like acceptable lynch, but I don't want to put third vote yet. We have plenty of time.

Botley looks very strange; I'll comment about this in next post, after some more thinking.

[House Ashford]

Interesting that Farwynd's focus is now on the Kenning kill. Everything he has done so far is based on selfish reasoning. He has not even begun to look for suspects, but he was simply trying to shift the attention away from himself by discrediting those who are attacking him. It's funny how Farwynd appeals to more teamplay, while he has not done anything for the team himself so far.

Some thoughts about the Kenning kill:

Of course it is possible that Fawrynd killed Kenning because he was suspecting him. A killer would do that, as we know from various games before. There are however other reasons that might have played a role. First of all, the odd SK didn't want to kill the other SK. Perhaps he thought that Kenning was more likely innocent than the rest? Then he might have thought that killing someone who has left only few connections would be a good idea (a motive that does not apply to Farwynd). Finally, since the SK has to survive until endgame he has to keep some players alive that trust him and he has, sooner or later, to eliminate those that are after him. If the odd SK is not Farwynd, then he might have probably been in a rather good position yesterday, since he chose to kill someone who is more than average lynchable. I wouldn't expect that sort of kill from someone who is lynchable himself.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1568434' date='Oct 27 2008, 07.32']Giving up other people to suspect is deflecting suspicion as well, so you're going to have to try another one for why you think Merlyn is innocent. Frankly, he looked pretty busy to me and nothing points to him being innocent IMO.[/quote]

What was your reason why you suspected him again?

[House Dayne]

[quote name='House Volmark' post='1568423' date='Oct 27 2008, 13.06']1) I didn't specially like the Merlyn mob (I'll probably comment more on it later). Also, day ended really early in the morning for me and I couldn't get on a computer on time to vote. When I left there was plenty of time for a lynch. Plus, what conceivable reason would a SK have NOT to want someone else lynched?[/quote]

When you leave a couple of hours before the time limit and know you won't be back before the end, you try to take a grasp of the situation to see what's the best strategy, you don't just hope that others will do the dirty work for you. 3 hours is not plenty of time when you play with people in various time zones.

As for what reasons would a SK have, are you kidding me? To quote you "we lost a day". Makes one.
Second reason is that being on a mob puts you under scrutiny. So avoiding to be on the mob can be a good strategy.
I don't suspect that much Botley because he's been very obvious and has attracted a lot of light on himself by openly refusing to put the killing vote on Merlyn.


Farwynd, you didn't have time yesterday. Fine. You seem to have more time today. Do you suspect Botley, do you want to make a case on him? What do you think of Volmark? Or Saltcliffe? Because all of your contribution to this point has been arguing with Botley and ignoring the rest.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1568469' date='Oct 27 2008, 09.27']Interesting that Farwynd's focus is now on the Kenning kill. Everything he has done so far is based on selfish reasoning. He has not even begun to look for suspects, but he was simply trying to shift the attention away from himself by discrediting those who are attacking him. It's funny how Farwynd appeals to more teamplay, while he has not done anything for the team himself so far.[/quote] Botley, you are really testing my patience at this point. I've commented on a few other subjects thus far (yesterday's failed lynch and some of your mistakes (IMO)), which are all what is currently going on. What the fuck else do people usually talk about at the start of day 2 other than the NK and the lynch from the day before? I'd also like to point this out to you, which you seem to have missed: [quote name='House Farwynd' post='1568434' date='Oct 27 2008, 08.32']Dude, you need to think of the team at some point. I know I need to participate more and get going on some rereads, but you failed us at a crucial point by not voting.[/quote]At least your analysis of the Kenning kill seems pretty honest.

Still, you are a huge pain in the ass saying things like:[quote name='House Botley' post='1568471' date='Oct 27 2008, 09.29']What was your reason why you suspected him again?[/quote] I've given my reasoning for why I thought he was fine for a lynch. Frankly, even if I thought he was innocent, I still would have lynched him because that's how I do. What was your reasoning why you didn't suspect him that was so strong that you derailed a lynch?

eta- [quote name='House Myre' post='1568472' date='Oct 27 2008, 09.31']Farwynd, you didn't have time yesterday. Fine. You seem to have more time today. Do you suspect Botley, do you want to make a case on him? What do you think of Volmark? Or Saltcliffe? Because all of your contribution to this point has been arguing with Botley and ignoring the rest.[/quote]No shit, I'm well aware. At this point I can't decide whether I suspect Botley or not. Some of his actions make perfect sense and some are perfect nonsense. He's been pushing the idea that the SK would remain under the radar while (later in day 1) trying to ping it hard himself. At this point, I guess I'd put him in a sort of neutral category. Seems too obvious to be guilty, while do some things that I really disagree with and find underhanded.

Shooting from the hip:
Volmark is a bit bothersome, going by Botley's idea of an under the radar SK, I think he fits at this point.
Saltcliffe has seemed genuine thus far. Don't really love that he went out of his way to point out he isn't a normal Westerosi Mafioso, but that's not really here nor there.
I'm still going through the thread and will likely do it again shortly, so you can expect more (as I said before).

[Magic Mirror]

Ok, Botley.
From the very beginning of last day, he kept saying he didn't susprct me at all. Whole day! Then, at the very end, he lectured Kenning on topic of "if you want a player dead, best way to get rid of him is to persuade SK to kill him, by announcing that player PI". Huh? Was it a confession in trying to get me killed? Or some weird joke?
Evidently, if Botley is evil, he can't benefit anything from such spectacle, so my first thought was that he must be careless innnocent. But I have immedeately seen that it might be Swann devence as well.
I still can't decide what to think about this, so would like an explanation.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1568481' date='Oct 27 2008, 07.41']Ok, Botley.
From the very beginning of last day, he kept saying he didn't susprct me at all. Whole day! Then, at the very end, he lectured Kenning on topic of "if you want a player dead, best way to get rid of him is to persuade SK to kill him, by announcing that player PI". Huh? Was it a confession in trying to get me killed? Or some weird joke?
Evidently, if Botley is evil, he can't benefit anything from such spectacle, so my first thought was that he must be careless innnocent. But I have immedeately seen that it might be Swann devence as well.
I still can't decide what to think about this, so would like an explanation.[/quote]

The explanation is pretty easy. I only came to the conclusion that CIing someoneelse is a perfect way to get him eliminated [i]after [/i]I pretty much CIed you.

[Magic Mirror]

[quote name='House Botley' post='1568493' date='Oct 27 2008, 14.58']The explanation is pretty easy. I only came to the conclusion that CIing someoneelse is a perfect way to get him eliminated [i]after [/i]I pretty much CIed you.[/quote]Interesting. You seem to be somewhat experienced player, and you didn't figure such a banality until yesterday?
Ok, for now I incline to treat that incident neutrally. It's some info about you, but neither positive nor negative.

Now, I have to find some time to reread Farwynd, it seems needful.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1568478' date='Oct 27 2008, 08.37']Botley, you are really testing my patience at this point. I've commented on a few other subjects thus far (yesterday's failed lynch and some of your mistakes (IMO)), which are all what is currently going on. What the fuck else do people usually talk about at the start of day 2 other than the NK and the lynch from the day before?[/quote]

You did not comment on other players than Merlyn and me on day 1. What bothers me is that you voted Merlyn in a rather forced way before you vanished. After your return you did choose to walk a pretty safe route by leaving your vote where it is. You did not look for alternatives to Merlyn at all. If I hadn't pointed out your lack of contribution which involved you into a [i]real [/i]discussion, we would have probably lynched Merlyn and you would have had a rather easy day 1. You would have managed to look helpful, but at the same you would not have risked to annoy any other living player.


I admit that missing a lynch on day 1 is not the best solution, but just agreeing that Merlyn looks like the best compromise without discussing other suspects is even worse. Everyone did have the opportunity to join me in my attempt to get Saltcliffe or you lynched. Only Kenning did, Myre said he would but didn't. Voting for the sake of a lynch is the best argument for a killer to join a mob, which is why Kenning appeared very innocent to me.

I think we learned a lot from yesterday, even if we had a slow start.