Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Ser Spidey

MAFIA 58

Recommended Posts

Ok, Merlyn was CIed by Botley only, but, still, nobody wanted to lynch him right now.
And he was only one of us who voted Saltcliffe over Farwynd and Orkwood.
Variants: 1) Saltcliffe killed him, erraneously getting him as his principal opponent for today. 2) Myre or Botley or Orkwood killed him not wanting to reduce pool of stronger players.
Both ways, I don't see Harlaw making this kill, so he is close to PI for me now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:( I was hoping for a pity kill.


Off the top of my head, the one that pops into mind is Botley. He's bothered me from the beginning, but other than the passive looking suspicious (which I really disagree with) I haven't been able to pin him down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ok, now we [i]all [/i]know that the day 1 lynch target has been innocent. :P


Sorry Week, I swear I wanted to lynch the green erection first.


[b]Orkwood[/b]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='House Harlaw' post='1571496' date='Oct 29 2008, 17.00']:( I was hoping for a pity kill.[/quote]You will get it next time.
Alas, not so soon.

Botley, could you stop and think? Don't you feel like being manipulated?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1571504' date='Oct 29 2008, 11.07']You will get it next time.
Alas, not so soon.

Botley, could you stop and think? Don't you feel like being manipulated?[/quote]

Since I stopped reading posts - no? :P


Seriously, the Merlyn kill smells of despair. When everything points against you, you have to get creative to turn the tide. My thinking is pretty straightforward and can be reduced to three words:

Orkwood, Saltcliffe, Harlaw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It is day 4.

6 players remain: Botley, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Myre, Orkwood, Saltcliffe..

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

1 vote for Botley (Saltcliffe.)
1 vote for Orkwood (Botley)

4 players have not voted: Goodbrother, Harlaw, Myre, Orkwood.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have to agree with Goodbrother, Botley. This requires some thoughts.

I won't be here for the next few hours, but I should have more time later tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Before I have to leave for a while, here is the day 1 votecount:

[quote]6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

5 votes for [color="#008000"]Merlyn [/color]( [color="#008000"]Farwynd[/color], Goodbrother, Myre, [color="#FF8C00"]Harlaw[/color], [color="#FF8C00"]Orkwood[/color])
2 votes for [color="#008000"]Farwynd [/color]( Botley, [color="#008000"]Kenning[/color])
1 vote for Myre ( [color="#FF0000"]Volmark[/color])
1 vote for Orkwood ( [color="#008000"]Merlyn[/color])

1 players have not voted: [color="#FF8C00"]Saltcliffe[/color].[/quote]

Green are CI for everyone, red is SK and orange is my, and by this your suspect pool. Anyone thinks that no SK has been on the mob?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='House Botley' post='1571548' date='Oct 29 2008, 18.31']Before I have to leave for a while, here is the day 1 votecount:



Green are CI for everyone, red is SK and orange is my, [u]and by this your suspect pool[/u]. Anyone thinks that no SK has been on the mob?[/quote]

Botley no offence, but I am starting to get the distinct impression you are trying to subtly manipulate the rest of the players here. And the fact that you refuse to read posts is not helping me feel any better about you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ummm.... is anyone else struggling to access to the site? I have been unable to get on for the last 2 or 3 hours.

Edit: I see I am the only one here. Oh well I am off for the evening now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And of course the board has been down for a while at the best possible moment :rolleyes: But well, at least it gave me some time to think.

I expected to die tonight, or if not me Goodbrother or Botley who were the most innocent looking in my book and who were not under a lot of suspicion. So why is it not the case?

Let's see the different possibilities:

1) the killer is one of Botley or Goodbrother (feel free to add me in the pool, I won't for obvious reasons).
He then prefered to remove a less active target in order to hide in the pool.
However, the killer had 2 kills left at most. Last night and on night 5. There won't be a kill next night. And in the worst of cases, day 6 will be the last possible day.
Since both Goodbrother and I were very low on the suspect list, I think Botley could have removed us both and kept on with his plan. Can't really see the reason for him to kill Merlyn at that point.
It's similar for Goodbrother, since Botley hasn't really been suspected either, so he could have hidden behind Botley and me.
So it's possible but I don't think it makes that much sense.

2) the killer is among the pool of suspects brought forth by Botley.
The killer had then interest to interfere with Botley's plan, which gives him no chance to win.
However, if he killed Botley, he took the risk to have people say: "Botley was killed because he was pushing forth the winning plan." But it could also have been a good move since we all know how good innocents are at following the plans of dead players.
Goodbrother has not given his approval of the plan (or I missed it ?). So removing him could mean remove a potential strong ally against Botley.
As for me, even though I've shown approval of Botley's list of suspects, I am always questionning. So the killer could also have considered me like a potential ally against Botley.
Finally, by removing an improbable target, he sows confusion and gets more chance to derail Botley's plan, which is I think what Botley suggested.
Removing Merlyn has the double advantage to sow confusion without removing a suspect from Botley's list. However, several people disagreed with Botley's assessment of Merlyn.

Now if we take a closer look at this group:
Merlyn wanted to vote for Saltcliffe yesterday. Which could give Saltcliffe an additional reason to choose Merlyn. However, I think Saltcliffe would have been more likely to choose me because I also prefered him over Orkwood, and my death was expected, so he had more to gain from my death than not.
Could it be a frame of Saltcliffe by the other ones then? Especially Orkwood? Have to check if Orkwood has had the opportunity to see Merlyn's opinions of Saltcliffe before leaving.
As for Harlaw. I really don't know. Part of me thinks Harlaw's plead for a lynch yesterday sounded very genuine, and part of me is afraid that Harlaw used this trick to make us think he's innocent because he knows he doesn't have time to play and defend himself.

Well, I'll think on that. Maybe after a good night's rest I'll have clearer ideas. In the meanwhile I'd like everyone to put his thoughts on the thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='House Saltcliffe' post='1571597' date='Oct 29 2008, 15.23']Botley no offence, but I am starting to get the distinct impression you are trying to subtly manipulate the rest of the players here. And the fact that you refuse to read posts is not helping me feel any better about you.[/quote]

Subtle?

SUBTLE?!?!?!?

:eek:


Your first sentence over there is subtle. I am not subtle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with Myre's analysis of the nightkill for the most part. Myre left out himself so I will present a Myre analysis here:


I can certainly see Myre killing Kenning. I already said that all the contributive players had a reason to kill Grief, and since Myre was one of the most contributive players, he certainly had a motiveto kill a low poster (=keeping the pool of helpful players as big as possible).

Still, Myre did such a great effort to lead the crowd, that he even stood out of the contributive player pool. If mentat hadn't been lynched, Myre would be dead right now.



Killing Merlyn might make sense to justify his own living existence. However, he might also have killed Goodbrother or me.

Myre's whole attitude makes no sense if he was the odd SK. He couldn't hope for the even SK to die so quickly, which is not optimal for the odd SK anyway, and he couldn't hope that he could wake up every morning without the rest of the team getting more and more nervous.

No, I still think that the only thing that Myre ever killed was my patience yesterday.


And I also think that the Merlyn kill means that our remaining killers is already wetting his pants. Maybe we should just check our trousers to get this game finished.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Okay, I'm back. The board was down at the worst possible time for me, so i'm sitting here still trying to get my head around everything.

Sorry week. Looks like it was another case of innocents banging their heads against each other for no reason. I'm glad I stopped responding when I did.

So, my energy today is going to go into looking at anyone who doesn't seem to be on anyone else's watch list. Only problem is, right now I have no energy so you'll have to wait an hour or so. :-p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quick note: Myre asked why I salt wasn't the best choice if he was most likely...

Simple. He wasn't most likely. He was a possibility, but week was my main suspect unfortunately.

Today? Well, I'll decide that once i've finished.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[u]I want to make two suggestions:[/u]


1) Don't hate me for suggesting point 2.


2) We have two days with no kill between. That makes 64 hours if we continue witht our current....well, speed is the wrong word obviously. So we could make this day a lot shorter, for we have still enough time to discuss things tomorrow. Why? Because there might be no tomorrow at all, and even if we lynch wrong again, we have more informations to focus our attention.


I really don't care if we lynch one of Orkwood, Saltcliffe or Harlaw, as long as it's one of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×