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Ser Spidey

MAFIA 58

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No special case on Saltcliffe, sorry. He and Farwynd are those two that are bugging me the most. Saltcliffe gave us the impression, that he was interested in moving the game. He stated his disappointement that no one posted. Now he had a lot of time to participate, but he still didn't involve himself.

Farwynd is in the same category. Visible, but careful. If you want to know what I mean, take Harlaw and Myre as a good example for an engaged player that tries to achieve something. I get good feelings from both these players.

Merlyn is the opposite. He is not participating, but he doesn't even try to hide that. If he is the SK, he is not very interested in winning this game.

Orkwood is also on my suspect list. He is contributing, and he makes some sense, yet I have the feeling that he avoids a direct confrontation..


We have to keep in mind that both SK have to try to look innocent, but not too innocent, because that would get them killed.


My tiers right now are:


1 - Farwynd, Saltcliffe

2 - Orkwood, Volmark

3 - Merlyn, Kenning

4 - Myre, Harlaw

5 - Goodbrother

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[quote name='House Kenning' post='1567874' date='Oct 26 2008, 16.11']Umm. No. :P[/quote]

Fine [b]Kenning[/b]. He has suspicions of one person and votes for a different one with no reason listed.

Plus he posted after the time he should have been mod killed. He deserves to die :P

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Ok, reasons:

1. The whole bandwaggoning thing earlier(not very suspicious, admittedly).
2. Hoping for a reaction. If you were scum, a random vote for no reason(and it basically was) could well provoke an over-reaction. Since you havent had one, you're less suspicious to me.

Oh, and epic OMGUS vote btw :D

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[quote name='House Botley' post='1567880' date='Oct 26 2008, 15.17']Orkwood is also on my suspect list. He is contributing, and he makes some sense, yet I have the feeling that he avoids a direct confrontation..[/quote]

Pray tell, my good fellow. What makes you think I'm avoiding direct confrontations?

I'd say i've been one of the more direct posters so far, in my own humble opinion.

I really can't see it. I hope it's not another of these gut things, as I never have been able to adequetly defend myself against a dodgy prawn or bout of IBS.

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[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1567857' date='Oct 26 2008, 20.52']Nice.

A very subtle way of pointing out you didn't receive a PM until 20 odd hours after the game started...

That said, it'd take one craft guy to sneak that one in there, so I'm inclined to trust you...

Not to PI levels, but certainly enough to keep you another day or two.[/quote]

Humm, Orkwood, seems to me like we ALL recieved a PM to give us the alts and passwords, so I don't think it means anything.

OK, this being said, time to take a decision regarding today's lynch.

Saltcliffe I still suspect mainly because of his overreaction, but seems like only Botley is willing to follow me.

I don't want to lynch Goodbrother or Orkwood based on actual "cases" against them: thoughtful and contributive players, not suspicious to me at the moment.

Volmark doesn't like me and I don't like him. No broken heart here. I don't like what he said here:
[quote]- First, I don't like Myre. He's already been called out for a very lousy case (or whatever he fancies calling it) against Saltcliffe. While lousy cases are the way of day one mafia it really seems to me he's "trying too hard" (to quote Saltcliffe's first post). To me it's fine to joke vote on day one, or vote on vibes, or do anything you can think of to try and get the game moving, but start rationalizing it too much and it becomes suspicious. It's not so much a case for lousy reasons but trying to make those lousy reasons appear as what they're not. Myre's later efforts to backtrack are commendable but slightly unconvincing.[/quote]

1) parrots what other have said already.

2) states that "it's fine to joke vote on day one, or vote on vibes, or do anything you can think of to try and get the game moving, but start rationalizing it too much and it becomes suspicious." I completely disagree with that. Joke votes and vibe votes don't really get the game moving: people accused can't fight the reasons of the votes, so no real reaction to be gained. But Goodbrother and I already repeted this ad nauseam so I'll stop here.

3) doesn't follow through with a vote. This one I actually think is less telling in this game given that the SK don't know the alignment of other people. Something I hadn't thought about when I accused Saltcliffe. And I can understand that he didn't want to put the 4th vote on me at that point, but he didn't say so.

But Volmark's vote on me makes him look slightly better: he follows his suspicions, even if I'm no longer the fashion lynch; and I see how my frustration reaction can appear as over-defensive so his vote makes sense.


Finally, about Motley. I was ready to vote for him in last resort to get a lynch, and I don't like his reasons to vote Orkwood. However, would a SK attack one of the strongest players when he has already 3 votes on him and won't be around to defend himself? So I'm not sure he's the best lynch. Still will vote for him if needs be but I'd like to have a look at others.

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[quote name='House Kenning' post='1567888' date='Oct 26 2008, 16.26']Ok, reasons:

1. The whole bandwaggoning thing earlier(not very suspicious, admittedly).
2. Hoping for a reaction. If you were scum, a random vote for no reason(and it basically was) could well provoke an over-reaction. Since you havent had one, you're less suspicious to me.[/quote]



It was a second vote, not a 3rd as was report, so not really a bandwagon vote. (helps to not trust just random posts/vote counts from other players)


[quote]Oh, and epic OMGUS vote btw :D[/quote]

It was damn good, wasn't it? :P

eta: :blush: I was going by this post when I said it was 2 votes on Myre:
[quote]11 players remain: Botley, Drumm, Farwynd, Goodbrother, Harlaw, Kenning, Merlyn, Myre, Orkwood, Saltcliffe, Volmark.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Myre ( Botley, Harlaw)
1 vote for Goodbrother ( Orkwood)
1 vote for Harlaw ( Goodbrother)
1 vote for Merlyn ( Farwynd)
1 vote for Saltcliffe ( Myre)

5 players have not voted: Drumm, Kenning, Merlyn, Saltcliffe, Volmark.[/quote]

I was thinking I was the second vote based on this. Buy Saltcliffe removed his vote after i made mine.

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[quote name='House Myre' post='1567890' date='Oct 26 2008, 15.30']Humm, Orkwood, seems to me like we ALL recieved a PM to give us the alts and passwords, so I don't think it means anything.[/quote]

Good spot. I feel less good about him now. Not quite bad enough to take Merlyn's place though. I guess he's on compromise duty?

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Umm, not sure why you're assuming this at all. Its far too shaky for anything like that.
For one, you're assuming that it just wasnt the first time id checked my email since the game started, which it probably was.

I dont like the whole idea of assuming anyone to be anything at this stage.
Yes, there are people I trust more than others, but no-one I have down as PI/CI, at this stage, just people I think are more likely innocent than others.

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I will keep Farwynd in mind, who is fitting the SK profile the most right now. Am I the only one here who has thoughts about him btw? Isn't that a sign that he has managed to stay under radar so far?


I am more than willing to switch to Saltcliffe or Volmark. Preferably Saltcliffe.

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[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1567898' date='Oct 26 2008, 14.34']Good spot. I feel less good about him now. Not quite bad enough to take Merlyn's place though. I guess he's on compromise duty?[/quote]

You still think that Merlyn is guilty?


Funny.

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[quote name='House Kenning' post='1567901' date='Oct 26 2008, 15.39']Umm, not sure why you're assuming this at all. Its far too shaky for anything like that.
For one, you're assuming that it just wasnt the first time id checked my email since the game started, which it probably was.

I dont like the whole idea of assuming anyone to be anything at this stage.
Yes, there are people I trust more than others, but no-one I have down as PI/CI, at this stage, just people I think are more likely innocent than others.[/quote]


Way to jump in once it's already been made clear that I had been mistaken...

Way to make me trust you way way less.

Compromise no longer... Second choice, more like!

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[quote name='House Botley' post='1567908' date='Oct 26 2008, 15.45']You still think that Merlyn is guilty?


Funny.[/quote]


I think that for someone who's been around on and off for quite a while, Merlyn has said very little, and even less of worth. I'd rather mistakenly vote off an innocent Merlyn than mistakenly vote off an innocent active player.

I don't free pass to day 2 attempts. I also don't like votes with no reasoning, logic that points the other way, but gut over ruling all, be they on me or anyone else.

So no. I don't particularly think he's guilty. I don't particularly think anyone's guilty yet. It's more a case of him having one of the best risk to reward payouts, as I can see him being guilty, and don't feel we lose much either way, as if he's innocent then there are more valuable innocents out there right now.

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[quote name='House Kenning' post='1567888' date='Oct 26 2008, 21.26']Ok, reasons:

1. The whole bandwaggoning thing earlier(not very suspicious, admittedly).
2. Hoping for a reaction. If you were scum, a random vote for no reason(and it basically was) could well provoke an over-reaction. Since you havent had one, you're less suspicious to me.

Oh, and epic OMGUS vote btw :D[/quote]

1. OK. I also recall that Harlaw was 3rd vote so even if it was false, easy to make a mistake.
2. Why would anyone freak for one vote without basis? That's something I fail to understand. But apparently I'm in the minority. *sigh*

[quote name='House Botley' post='1567906' date='Oct 26 2008, 21.44']I will keep Farwynd in mind, who is fitting the SK profile the most right now. Am I the only one here who has thoughts about him btw? Isn't that a sign that he has managed to stay under radar so far?


I am more than willing to switch to Saltcliffe or Volmark. Preferably Saltcliffe.[/quote]

I don't have any thoughts about Farwynd. I'll have a look at him now.

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Looking at Farwynd was quick.
Farwynd is no better than Merlyn. Apart from joke votes and comments on avatars, there is nothing.
And I agree with Botley that he's more sneaky than Merlyn.

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Well, he said he'd be back in 2 hours about 2:35 ago, so he ought to be around soon.
Im gonna go view all his posts.

ETA: Gotta agree with Myre there. He made a joke vote, and I dont think any of his posts contained content.

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Mods, looks to me that the vote counter is wrong, are the days supposed to be 30 or 32 hours long? it's written 32, but from the vote counter it appears to be 30.

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[quote name='House Botley' post='1567880' date='Oct 26 2008, 16.17']We have to keep in mind that both SK have to try to look innocent, but not too innocent, because that would get them killed.[/quote][quote name='House Botley' post='1567906' date='Oct 26 2008, 16.44']I will keep Farwynd in mind, who is fitting the SK profile the most right now. Am I the only one here who has thoughts about him btw? Isn't that a sign that he has managed to stay under radar so far?[/quote]
Your assumptions on the behavior of the SK don't really make sense IMO. "Trying to look innocent, but not too innocent"? Wow, that is some earthshattering analysis there, that is how every evil tries to behave in pretty much every game. You are forgetting the fact that neither SK needs to worry about getting killed tonight because one is killing and the other is BP. The worst that could happen to the BP SK (even) is that the other one would know who he is, however it still means that odd-SK will need to either get him lynched (not always an easy task) or wait until N3 to kill his counterpart. You also seem to be blending different archetypes of evil behavior. First you say that it is looking innocent, but not too innocent. Then you believe playing under the radar (I don't believe the two are the same) is the SK profile.

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Ok, I had a Goodbrother re-read and I can now see what I thought was wrong with Goodbrother (apart from the grammar). He seems to classify players into what he perceives as useful and useless. From there that he has no qualms on voting almost exclusively for people who aren't around much (or at all), on grounds of being inactive or of posting little substance.

Being inactive and posting little substance is certainly not something to encourage, and I'll agree players who are inactive are a bit of a liability (specially if they get themselves modkilled), but I think this is poor play, and we could do better looking for players who we think are guilty. I also think hunting down inactive players is a good way to surf the game if you're FM (or SK). You just have to point out their inactivity and vote. No further reasoning is required. Goodbrother is also fond of many short posts, which is also a good way to keep an appearance of activity while only making superficial statements.

And that's that. I'm keeping my vote on Myre and retiring. Week-ends are pretty lousy for me, but I'll have plenty of time tomorrow to browse the thread and post while I'm supposed to be working.

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[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1567940' date='Oct 26 2008, 15.29']Your assumptions on the behavior of the SK don't really make sense IMO. "Trying to look innocent, but not too innocent"? Wow, that is some earthshattering analysis there, that is how every evil tries to behave in pretty much every game. You are forgetting the fact that neither SK needs to worry about getting killed tonight because one is killing and the other is BP. The worst that could happen to the BP SK (even) is that the other one would know who he is, however it still means that odd-SK will need to either get him lynched (not always an easy task) or wait until N3 to kill his counterpart. You also seem to be blending different archetypes of evil behavior. First you say that it is looking innocent, but not too innocent. Then you believe playing under the radar (I don't believe the two are the same) is the SK profile.[/quote]

This answer is no defense, but a deflection of suspicion. It seems that you have forgotten that both SK have to survive until the end of the game. Sticking your head out on day 1 already is the first step towards the grave.

So, staying suspicious, staying under radar and making on-committal post is always a good combination to keep yourself alive for a while.

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