MAFIA 59

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1597382' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.11']I'm the Copymans. I take one person's powers, for one day.[/quote]People, I don't think it's right time for full reveal yet. At this stage, it would do nothing but help killers to get rid of best roles we have. Please don't be tooo sincere.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Clegane' post='1597394' date='Nov 22 2008, 09.32']People, I don't think it's right time for full reveal yet. At this stage, it would do nothing but help killers to get rid of best roles we have. Please don't be tooo sincere.[/quote]

Unless you are a killer and want to reveal that to us, which would be very helpful :)

[House Clegane]

Ok, it seems we have about 6 hours left, and I'll be here for about 2 hours at most.
Time to decide something.
Ashford's lynch looks rather unpopular.... and all other also.
Could we agree on lynching the lowest poster? [b]Baelish[/b] is out of modkill zone now and promices to participate... but we need to sacrifice somebody, and he looks like best variant.

[House Yronwood]

[quote name='House Cassel' post='1597332' date='Nov 22 2008, 08.52']I see a third vote, with reason, as a totally different kettle of fish to a fourth vote with little to no reason. One is Mafia, the other is bandwagoning.[/quote]

[quote name='House Tully' post='1597357' date='Nov 22 2008, 10.18']Oh and [b]Vote: Qorgyle[/b]
His sudden jump onto the train struck me as irresponsible and as it has no reason or backing and is not something I can see town doing.[/quote]

I agree with Kenning. Why would a FM feel the need to cast a 4th vote so early in the game? Doesn't make much sense to me. The odds of somebody getting lynched that early are extremely low, so why put yourself out there like that?


[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597346' date='Nov 22 2008, 09.36']My timer says 9.5 hours til end of day. I have to attend a job training this morning, but see no reason that I won't be back for the day ends. I'll [b]remove vote[/b] for Baelish before I go.[/quote]

Why remove vote? Seems overly cautious to me. Nobody else was voting for Baelish, so its not like he was in imminent danger of being lynched. [b]Hunter[/b]


[quote name='House Kenning' post='1597377' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.06']I pray that the Sheepmaker is another name for the Ovinomancer[/quote]

I don't. I hate that role. It was funny the first few times, but its just annoying at this point. We have enough trouble getting people to participate in games, and turning a player into a sheep isn't going to make things any better.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Clegane' post='1597407' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.07']Ok, it seems we have about 6 hours left, and I'll be here for about 2 hours at most.
Time to decide something.
Ashford's lynch looks rather unpopular.... and all other also.
Could we agree on lynching the lowest poster? [b]Baelish[/b] is out of modkill zone now and promices to participate... but we need to sacrifice somebody, and he looks like best variant.[/quote]

I'll help lynch Baelish if necessary, but I won't vote for him now because I will be back before end of day. That sai, I do need to go now for about 5 hours.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Yronwood' post='1597411' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.11']Why remove vote? Seems overly cautious to me. Nobody else was voting for Baelish, so its not like he was in imminent danger of being lynched. [b]Hunter[/b][/quote]

Overly cautious? I know that I at least am having trouble finding anyone who stands out as particularly suspicious on day one, but tbh I'd rather lynch someone for low post count than a reason like this. My suspicion is that that vote for Hunter is rather forced and is an attempt to avoid middle of the roading. A reason to watch you.

[House Yronwood]

[quote name='House Ashford' post='1597417' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.20']Overly cautious? I know that I at least am having trouble finding anyone who stands out as particularly suspicious on day one, but tbh I'd rather lynch someone for low post count than a reason like this. My suspicion is that that vote for Hunter is rather forced and is an attempt to avoid middle of the roading. A reason to watch you.[/quote]

You're missing the point. His vote was already cast, but the target wasn't in any danger. Why make the point of removing?

And lynching somebody for low post count is essentially just giving up, unless you think you can tie low post count to being evil. Which I really doubt you can do in this particular game, given that it started on a Friday and a lot of people were probably out for the night.

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1597352' date='Nov 22 2008, 09.53']Alright...though you neglected to point out that I was actually wrong, you were the second vote on Swann. I'm a bit surprised you didn't correct me on that.[/quote]


I thought it, but wasn't sure and didn't have time to go back and check, so assumed you must be right?

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Yronwood' post='1597423' date='Nov 22 2008, 12.30']And lynching somebody for low post count is essentially just giving up,[/quote]In some sense, yes. Lynching for low post count is valid move only when we can't lynch anybody for looking suspicious. But it's exactly the position where we are now.

[House Upcliff]

Why put a bandwagon vote in early on day 1? Why not? I can't see a good reason for an innocent to do so. For a guilty though it's still middle of the votes enough not to be a hammer wielder. It's a way to commit to a case early (so not seem uncertain and wishy washy) without really putting any concrete thoughts in that can be used against you later, and who knows, it could get an innocent voted off nice and early.

If Swann is their partner it's even better, as Swann will probably escape and as such a perfect distance technique, and if the heat turns up too much it was "joke" enough to withdraw the vote anyway.

I'm more confident in my current vote than i would currently be with any other. I will be around though and will happily vote off one of the silent monks should a compromise be needed.

[House Yronwood]

[quote name='House Cassel' post='1597434' date='Nov 22 2008, 10.55']Why put a bandwagon vote in early on day 1? Why not? I can't see a good reason for an innocent to do so.[/quote]

I can think of a few reasons. Could be a joke - I've seen people pile on to one target early in the game in the past. Some even like to say 'lynchmob! :drool:' when doing it. Or it could be an attempt to see how people react. Will the target get pissed off? Will somebody else step in and defend him? No particular type of reaction is a definitive sign of guilt or innocence, but it can at the very least be an effective way of gathering information.

I think those reasons are more likely than an evil player who thought he could push a quick lynch that early in the game. Hell, I'd even believe that he was a careless FM who wasn't even thinking about the vote count (in spite of one being posted right before his post) over the suggestion that he was a FM who was trying to get Swann lynched by casting a 4th vote and supporting it with the reason "Swann is annoying" all of 8 hours into the game.

[quote name='Cassel']If Swann is their partner it's even better, as Swann will probably escape and as such a perfect distance technique, and if the heat turns up too much it was "joke" enough to withdraw the vote anyway.[/quote]

I actually agree with you here. Could have been a savvy move by a FM partner who was thinking ahead. He would have known that Swann was almost certainly going to be fine, in spite of his vote, since lynch mobs rarely succeed that early. And by jumping on, he'd accomplish 2 objectives - distancing just in case Swann is lynched, and also distancing even if Swann survives, but is lynched later in the game.

But really, I see that as something to just file away in the back of our minds, in case it can be of use later. Its a possibility, but its not the most likely explanation, IMO.

[House Clegane]

Yronwood, so many words, and I completely fail to find a position behind all that jazz. Could you formulate your point more briefly?

[House Yronwood]

[quote name='House Clegane' post='1597463' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.44']Yronwood, so many words, and I completely fail to find a position behind all that jazz. Could you formulate your point more briefly?[/quote]

Seems pretty clear to me.

1) I don't think a FM would cast the 4th vote on a mob 8 hours into the game, in an attempt to lynch somebody.

2) I do think an innocent would cast the 4th vote on an early mob as a joke, or an attempt to provoke people and get information.

3) I could possibly see a FM casting the 4th vote on an early mob against his partner. To avoid using "so many words", I'll just direct you to my above post if you want to read the reasons. :rolleyes:

[House Thorne]

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1597382' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.11']I'm the Copymans. I take one person's powers, for one day.[/quote]

That might be very useful to find out who has what power and how it works.

As far as the Shadow Ashford vote on me, to me it looks like either an attempt to frame Ashford or some kind of power that triggers automatically when certain conditions are met. Number one is the only possible reason I can think of for using it so early in the game. Number two would be the alternative.

I'd have to look back at the Qorgyle vote on me, but from recollection it seems simply careless play, which is not indicative of either innocence or guilt. I'm going to vote for him, though, because a couple of people are subtly defending him in a way I find slightly iffy.

[b]Qorgyle[/b]

Unfortunately I have to leave now. Weekends are just not a good time to start for me. I'll hopefully have more time tomorrow.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='House Swann' post='1597467' date='Nov 22 2008, 13.57']I'd have to look back at the Qorgyle vote on me, but from recollection it seems simply careless play, which is not indicative of either innocence or guilt. I'm going to vote for him, though, because a couple of people are subtly defending him in a way I find slightly iffy.[/quote]Who exactly? Could you be more particular?
[quote]Unfortunately I have to leave now. Weekends are just not a good time to start for me. I'll hopefully have more time tomorrow.[/quote]Too bad. Leaving immedeately after putting such very vague accusations is bad move in my book. I never wanted to vote on you before this, but now it looks like very acceptable alternative.
Could we get some sort of consensus in next 30 minutes or so? I seem to be really ill and want to be in bed.

[House Clegane]

Ok, I have to leave for the rest of the day (I already stayed here for somewhat more than I intended). The question is if I should stay on Baelish who look like acceptable compromise or to vote on Swann who started looking suspicious to me in sight of his last post.
After some more thinking - [b]Swann[/b].

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Tully' post='1597357' date='Nov 22 2008, 06.18']Oh and [b]Vote: Qorgyle[/b]
His sudden jump onto the train struck me as irresponsible and as it has no reason or backing and is not something I can see town doing.[/quote]
It was my first post.

It has no reasoning. It has no backing. If that's not something you can see town doing, how the hell can you see an FM doing that so early in Day 1?

I wanted to see who'd jump and point fingers. So, hello, Tully.

[quote name='House Swann' post='1597467' date='Nov 22 2008, 09.57']I'd have to look back at the Qorgyle vote on me, but from recollection it seems simply careless play, which is not indicative of either innocence or guilt. I'm going to vote for him, though, because a couple of people are subtly defending him in a way I find slightly iffy.

[b]Qorgyle[/b].[/quote]
Subtle defenses those were not. And FM partners defend their own in CF games. And symps defend their masters from one measly vote. Oh, yes, they do! They do in Swann's reality!

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Yronwood' post='1597411' date='Nov 22 2008, 11.11']I don't. I hate that role. It was funny the first few times, but its just annoying at this point. We have enough trouble getting people to participate in games, and turning a player into a sheep isn't going to make things any better.[/quote]True. I am also in full agreement in your analysis of Qorgyle's vote.

[quote name='House Swann' post='1597467' date='Nov 22 2008, 12.57']That might be very useful to find out who has what power and how it works.

As far as the Shadow Ashford vote on me, to me it looks like either an attempt to frame Ashford or some kind of power that triggers automatically when certain conditions are met. Number one is the only possible reason I can think of for using it so early in the game. Number two would be the alternative.

I'd have to look back at the Qorgyle vote on me, but from recollection it seems simply careless play, which is not indicative of either innocence or guilt. I'm going to vote for him, though, because a couple of people are subtly defending him in a way I find slightly iffy.

[b]Qorgyle[/b]

Unfortunately I have to leave now. Weekends are just not a good time to start for me. I'll hopefully have more time tomorrow.[/quote]This post has actually put me over the top to vote for [b]Swann[/b]. The first half is just filler, absolutely nothing new yet it is presented as such. The vote on Qorgyle is very weak, even weaker than Cassel's to be honest. To vote for someone not for anything they've done but for what others have done in reference to them sounds like a load to me.

In the past I would be cheering on the possibility of Baelish, however I'm not entirely sure now. After the game where an evil with 2 posts was caught day 1, I'm a little hesitant to vote for someone with such extreme inactivity. I hate when people are inactive and that is something I absolutely want to discourage. In this case though, we just don't get much information from it and as great as it is to nab a baddie, it makes it very hard to catch the other. I am fully aware that I am sounding wishy washy here, it is the first time I've ever felt like lynching a quiet person may be a bad idea though. I realize Swann is a fairly low poster as well, however there has been some action surrounding them and they have made a few posts. That is probably the lower limit of activity that I'd want to vote for. Regardless, if my vote is needed for a lynch, it will still be there.

[House Upcliff]

I have to agree that Swann is a better "low poster" vote than Bael, as he actually has ties to other people so it's not a totally information-free lynch even if wrong. Add in the fact that he could be partners with Qorgyle, and I'm very happy to switch if Qorg ends up unlikely to swing.

Could we get a vote count? I've lost track of where each is.

[House Dondarrion]

[b]Qorgyle[/b]

I'm feeling a little leery of the Kenning/Clegane votes on Swann, just after Swann puts his vote on Qorgyle. It appears to me that Qorgyle is being protected, either by one or both.