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House Targaryen

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Ashwood you have a point there, but then symp has to be a rather risky role to play anyway.

WHOOT! Awesomeness! We got us a FM!!! :D

But now I feel troubled, with the CF, I am no longer sure about Hunter, he could have just played it really badly or he could be scum, thinking that no one would pitch up and hammer, which seemed likely as I had to rush to the pc and then through the thread. Will re-read what I skimmed over.

Also I feel like I have just given people a perfectly plausible reason to lynch me, and then say "well he could have been the symp."

But oh well, I helped, so I am happy! Now is anyone around?

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Hmm yes this is not good for Hunter. Let's think about this though. I guess it's all WIFOM. My gut tells me that no sane FM would refuse to lynch their partner so blatantly and whatever his reasons are, Hunter is innocent. But my brain tells me that, although this may be the case, it would be absolutely gutting to lose to Hunter after dciding he was innocent after this and therefore it's best to lynch him. But we can wait until the morning.

ETA: It is not outwith the realms of possibility that Hunter would have, as Tully said, assumed that no-one would hammer and that we would miss the lynch by one vote. This is what happened last game after all, when both the almost-lynched party and the non-hammerers survived for several days. But on the other hand I'm sure it would have been easier for Hunter to just not post rather than saying 'i like day 1 lynches but won't hammer Swann'. So I am unsure

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It's a well known fact that day 1 near-lynches never end up dying on day 2. Hunter himself could have talked his way out of the noose.

With a little luck, they were potentially playing for a way into Day 3 with the two of them and a symp Vs 5 townies. They are then a single day of avoiding the noose from victory.

It's a gamble, but with a few minutes left it's not as big a risk as it may seem.


Of course, if Hunter is the symp (more likely), it makes even more sense. Chances are they both survive day 2. Day 3 Hunter dies, flips innocent and we're left with 2FM and no idea who it could be.

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[quote name='House Targaryen' post='1597746' date='Nov 22 2008, 18.20']
SPOILER: as
mentat

who was
SPOILER: drumroll
a maniac killer (FM)
[/quote]Well.
Clearly this makes me look guilty as sin. But I knew that if I took a stand and Swann came up guilty, I'd be on the chopping block.

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1597754' date='Nov 22 2008, 18.29']Obviously I'm posting this after the day ended but man, what the hell. Don't ever call yourself a proponent of Day 1 lynches and then don't vote for the lynch. I'm booting you out of the PoDOLL (Poe-doll: Proponents of Day One Lynches League) and possibly voting for you tomorrow. I am getting off for awhile as RL is going pretty much the opposite of how this game is going for me (an innocent that just lynched a FM day 1).[/quote]Please don't revoke my PoDOLL membership. Perhaps you could make me wear the dunce cap and sit in the corner? I could be known as the League Idiot.

[quote name='House Tully' post='1597758' date='Nov 22 2008, 18.35']But now I feel troubled, with the CF, I am no longer sure about Hunter, he could have just played it really badly or he could be scum, thinking that no one would pitch up and hammer, which seemed likely as I had to rush to the pc and then through the thread. Will re-read what I skimmed over.

Also I feel like I have just given people a perfectly plausible reason to lynch me, and then say "well he could have been the symp."[/quote]There was no master plan. I truly thought him innocent. What can I say? I need to do the exact opposite of what I think I should do, because clearly I do not have any kind of mafia instinct.

[quote name='House Cassel' post='1597769' date='Nov 22 2008, 18.47']It's a well known fact that day 1 near-lynches never end up dying on day 2. Hunter himself could have talked his way out of the noose.

With a little luck, they were potentially playing for a way into Day 3 with the two of them and a symp Vs 5 townies. They are then a single day of avoiding the noose from victory.

It's a gamble, but with a few minutes left it's not as big a risk as it may seem.

Of course, if Hunter is the symp (more likely), it makes even more sense. Chances are they both survive day 2. Day 3 Hunter dies, flips innocent and we're left with 2FM and no idea who it could be.[/quote]Two things here: 1) I have never talked my way out of anything. 2) I will come up innocent but that won't clear me of being the symp. If you decide that I am to be lynched, fine (well, I'll fight tooth and nail) but please don't think you have killed the symp, because it isn't me, so the FM still has a voting block of 2.

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Alright, I don't generally like posting at night, but I am probably one of the people on the chopping block so I'll give some thoughts. First a post on Hunter, then a look a voting. I think we need to fuck up royally to lose this. Always possible, but not likely here IMO.
Hunter's most recent post:
[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597899' date='Nov 22 2008, 23.07']Well.
Clearly this makes me look guilty as sin. But I knew that if I took a stand and Swann came up guilty, I'd be on the chopping block.[/quote]Maybe his power is The Obviousman? :)
[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597899' date='Nov 22 2008, 23.07']Please don't revoke my PoDOLL membership. Perhaps you could make me wear the dunce cap and sit in the corner? I could be known as the League Idiot.[/quote]I'd rather have you on the chopping block with your PoDOLL Membership Card in a mini guillotine right next to you to be honest.
[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597899' date='Nov 22 2008, 23.07']There was no master plan. I truly thought him innocent. What can I say? I need to do the exact opposite of what I think I should do, because clearly I do not have any kind of mafia instinct.[/quote]Did you? Did you really? You have some 'splaining to do, I'll go through your posts after you come back from your absence in the middle of day 1 and you'll see.
[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597899' date='Nov 22 2008, 23.07']Two things here: 1) I have never talked my way out of anything. 2) I will come up innocent but that won't clear me of being the symp. If you decide that I am to be lynched, fine (well, I'll fight tooth and nail) but please don't think you have killed the symp, because it isn't me, so the FM still has a voting block of 2.[/quote]Maybe you weren't THE symp but you were still a symp to them.

Alright, so Hunter claims he was so convinced of Swann's innocence that he couldn't bear to go against his wish for a day 1 lynch to keep Swann alive. Also, he seemed fairly sure about Qorgyle's guilt and gave some creedence to the theory that I was a symp for Qorgyle (by Dondarrion).

[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597550' date='Nov 22 2008, 15.06'][u]I could go either way between Qorgyle and Swann, but what pushes me to my decision is Shadow Ashford.[/u] While I don't trust Ashford, I trust SA less... I don't know his motives, and I don't know who is behind it. For all we know Shadowing is a FM power to push a vote one way or the other. I'd rather not encourage Shadowing.

[b]Qorgyle[/b].[/quote]At this point, Hunter views Qorgyle and Swann as a toss up. The deciding factor is "Shadow Ashford", a situation that we have no understanding of the motive, method, or source. Very weak reasoning for a choice of one over the other, regardless, Hunter seems to find Swann to be guilty looking here.

Between this post and the next few there were zero posts by Swann. There were a couple posts by Qorgyle, nothing earthshattering, and then his surprising disappearance.

[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597570' date='Nov 22 2008, 15.25']Good question. I like the fact that Swann immediately unvoted then voted Ashford when he came on. That gesture went a long way with me. Obviously the whole excersize was futile, but he certainly didn't have to, and as an FM I think he would have been a little more reluctant to try it.

Qorgy, lynching you over Swann has nothing to do with posting numbers. And I see as I am typing this Qorgy is gone... dead?[/quote]Hunter now feels more positive about Swann because of his earlier happiness to indulge Hunter in his crackpot theory about Ashford as a "finder" when people vote for him. At first I thought the theory was ridiculous, then I thought about it and decided it was only silly. Somehow, this minor action that most FM would happily agree to as it can only make them look good (or get screwed by the mods for a silly role) makes Hunter feel better about Swann.

[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597588' date='Nov 22 2008, 15.37']Yes, he was basically forced to do revote Ashford. But he did it with no hemming or hawing. He just did it.

I feel good about Swann, I stand by my vote.[/quote]Again, why would he hem or haw about something so trivial? Now, Hunter feels good about Swann and sticks by his vote that now is clearly worthless after Qorgyle's disappearance. Remember, Hunter's vote is only on Swann because of Hunter's interpretation of Shadow Ashford's vote. Seems as though Hunter is trying to use that incident much more than anyone else, no?

[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597658' date='Nov 22 2008, 16.59']As I write this we have just under 1.5 hours. Lets see how long it takes me.

Along with Kenning I don't think I would vote for Ashford or Swann at this time either.

But I find Baelish and Tully acceptable candidates for lynching. Baelish simply because we loose nothing if he is gone... unfortunately we'd gain little info from his lynch as well.

I'll vote for [b]Tully[/b]. His contribution to the game is only slightly more than Baelish's. However he managed to sqeeze it into 8 posts.

Now my counter says 62 minutes. I doubt we get a lynch at all.[/quote]Here again, he refuses to vote for Swann and is unconcerned about not getting a lynch. There is simply no valid explanation for his actions as an innocent. They only make sense as a symp or a FM.
[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597689' date='Nov 22 2008, 17.30'](If I had to lay a name to it, I'd guess the person directing this is "The Mindman".)

The flipside, the Shadower isn't furthering his own agenda here... meaning going to night isn't trying to move Ashford to another lynch train (of course that might be too obvious) he is just changing votes. Apparently he isn't allowed to actually pretend to be Ashford, just vote.

But Shadowman could be furthering his own agenda if he doesn't want Swann voted for... erm I think me and Donny two to aren't really gung ho for Swann's death. And Donny claimed Copyman. LOL I am not the Shadowman![/quote][quote name='House Hunter' post='1597701' date='Nov 22 2008, 17.37']What? That makes no sense. Shadowman is a FM who earlier in the game was moving Ashford's vote to Swann, and now he is moving it away from Swann? So we have to kill Swann? If anything this ought to make you feel better about Swann.[/quote]Finally, more posts continuing his blinders about the Shadowman/Ashford situation and somehow it all results in him feeling better about Swann. Really, Hunter has to be a seriously misguided innocent or evil. As for FM or symp, I'll go into that some in my next post I think.

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The early, and brief, 'mod' on Swann: 4: Tully, Cassel, [s]Ashworth[/s] (not by choice), and Qorgyle. From here, Ashford quickly withdraws his vote, Cassel jumps on Qorgyle for bandwagoning with no reason, Qorgyle changes to Tully out of annoyance (theme here for Qorgyle), and much later Tully removes his vote.

Moving on to the end lynch:

[quote name='House Targaryen' post='1597746' date='Nov 22 2008, 18.20']10 players remain: Ashford, Baelish, Cassel, Clegane, Dondarrion, Hunter, Kenning, Swann, Tully, Yronwood.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.

[u]6 votes for Swann (Clegane, Kenning, Yronwood, Cassel, Ashford, Tully) PI[/u]
[i]1 vote for Kenning (Dondarrion)
1 vote for Tully (Hunter)

2 players have not voted: Baelish, Swann.PNI :)[/i][/quote]Starting with Swann's vote, here is how the day ended:
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597467"]Swann votes Qorgyle because others are subtly defending him.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597503"]Clegane [/url]and [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597508"]I[/url], crosspost our suspicion of Swann after his vote vote. It just seemed off and the excuse for the vote was very weak.
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597517"]Cassel prefers Qorgyle but indicates he'd be willing to switch if Qorgyle avoids lynching.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597521"]Dondarrion reappears to cast a vote on Qorgyle. He echoes the concern of people defending Qorgyle (while he defends Swann).[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597523"]Qorgyle votes Swann, mostly out of necessity.[/url]
[quote]Current vote count:
4 votes for Qorgyle (Tully, Cassel, Swann, Dondarrion)
3 votes for Swann (Clegane, Kenning, Qorgyle)
1 vote for Hunter (Yronwood)[/quote]
3 players have not voted: Ashford, Baelish, Hunter.
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597544"]Cassel inquires people's willingness to switch lynches.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597550"]Hunter votes Qorgyle (post in my previous post as well).[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597562"]Qorgyle disappears.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597566"]Cassel removes vote to prevent accidental hammering.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597601"]Dondarrion switches his vote to me. Apparently if he can't get Qorgyle he wants the 'suspicious' cat that 'defended' him.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597658"]Hunter switches vote to Tully (toss up between Tully and Baelish for him)[/url]
Ashford unvotes the Tully vote he was forced to make earlier (I skipped it) and the votes [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597669"]Swann (vote 3, 50min left).[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597672"]Yronwood jumps on Swann.[/url]
Ashford votes night (fake Ashford, Ashford will later fix his vote) and [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597683"]Cassel votes Swann.[/url]
[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31907&view=findpost&p=1597718"]Tully dives in and ends Swann.[/url]

After going through this, it seems pretty clear that at no point was Swann a sure lynch. If at any point any of these people hadn't voted for Swann then the lynch simply wouldn't happen. They may have been bandwagon votes, but the point is they didn't have to be made. Therefore, I consider everyone on the Swann lynch to be PI. That leaves Hunter, Dondarrion, Baelish, and the dead Swann as the only ones not on the lynch (note Qorgyle was on the lynch, but was not 100% enthused).

[u]Hunter:[/u] Seems pretty clearly to be evil IMO. There just is no logical way that a innocent would act like that (thought Qorgyle and Swann was a toss up (picked Qorgyle for BS reason), then refused to vote Swann despite claiming to support Day 1 lynches). However, considering how blatant his defense was, I think he is more likely to be a symp pulling out all the stops and then setting themselves up as the lynch for the next day (not a great situation, simply better than their last master to be lynched). Considering his obsession with the Shadow voting, I'd peg him as the culprit.

[u]Dondarrion:[/u] Dondarrion has two posts where he declares his power (first not really serious sounding, then later sounds serious). His next 5 posts begin right after Clegane and I vote for Swann, he first votes Qorgyle because he is suspicious of Qorgyle's defenders (like Swann) then when that isn't possible he votes for me. Apparently, Qorgyle's disappearance makes Dondarrion believe that I was actually fake symping and setting up for the two lynches to be either Qorgyle or Swann (both innocent in his opinion now...for no reason).

[u]Baelish:[/u] Wildcard, bitches.

Honorable mention: Qorgyle. Seemed innocent to me, however his vote on Swann could be understandable as Swann's partner. I wouldn't put too much stock into it, however it deserves to be noted.

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I will not deny anything that has to do with me playing spectacularily poorly. I freely admit that my play in this game has been, quite frankly, a grand clusterfuck. However, there is no proficiency exam administered before playing, so you'll have to take me where I am. I can't go back and change how I played.

BUT. I did think that Swann was innocent. Yes, I based that on my analysis of the Shadowman happenings. (Call it blinders if you will; it isn't the first time I've done it, and it won't be the last.) Yes, my analysis sucked. However, I do not have to vote for anyone that I don't want to vote for, regardless of getting a day one lynch or not. Yes, I have to live with the consequences, which I will do.

If you want to spend the next game day parsing every move I made during day one and then bitching about it, go right ahead. You have your easy target who has no reasonable explanation to respond with. I will just say the following over and over: You are sure that I am a FM and I am cornered. But when the CF turns me over, I will show innocent because I [i]am[/i] innocent. What I don't want everyone to do is put their Hunter blinders on and cheer that you have caught the symp. You haven't, and considering me so will be the royal fuck up that you fear.

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[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597967' date='Nov 23 2008, 02.16']BUT. I did think that Swann was innocent. Yes, I based that on my analysis of the Shadowman happenings. (Call it blinders if you will; it isn't the first time I've done it, and it won't be the last.) Yes, my analysis sucked.[/quote]Can you explain what happened in between thinking that Qorgyle was slightly more suspicious than Swann and deciding the Swann was 100% innocent to the point of refusing to help the lynch?

[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597967' date='Nov 23 2008, 02.16']However, I do not have to vote for anyone that I don't want to vote for, regardless of getting a day one lynch or not. Yes, I have to live with the consequences, which I will do.[/quote]*Lunges and grabs Hunter's PoDOLL Membership Card...tears it into tiny piece and then jumps on it* :angry:

[quote name='House Hunter' post='1597967' date='Nov 23 2008, 02.16']If you want to spend the next game day parsing every move I made during day one and then bitching about it, go right ahead. You have your easy target who has no reasonable explanation to respond with. I will just say the following over and over: You are sure that I am a FM and I am cornered. But when the CF turns me over, I will show innocent because I [i]am[/i] innocent. What I don't want everyone to do is cheer that you have caught the symp. You haven't, and considering me so will be the royal fuck up that you fear.[/quote]I don't actually, I just wanted to get it out there while I was still alive. You seem to have missed where I said that I think you are more likely the symp, I guess the leap you didn't make was that I'm not interested in lynching you tomorrow. With the information we have, who do YOU find suspicious? As you said, there isn't likely much for you to defend yourself other than the questions I've asked you here.

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Of course we won't know if you was or wasn't the symp until Spoiler Heaven, Hunter. That's the nature of Mafia. And of course if someone else acts very sympish we'll consider the fact we made a mistake. However, right now we have no choice but to consider you symp and hang you. Right or wrong, anything else would be suicidal play and just downright poor Mafia-ing.

The only thing that will stop me voting Hunter as soon as dawn arrives is a "hunter was night killed" message.

edit: Or maybe a "I'm the real FM, not him!" post from someone. ;)

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[i]Sorry guys, I overslept tis morning and had to hurry to work.[/i]


Ok, scene:


During the night, you hear Ashford murmuring in his sleep. It seems like he is discussing with some other person.

Others of you are dreaming of Zombies, while some are just happy that there is one killer less in that dark mean world.


As you wake up you look into the face of Ashford. He looks very sad.


"I feel so alone", he says to you and whines.


You wonder what is up with him, and then someone starts to scream. You leave Ashford where he is, and you hurry towards the crowd that is gathering around a bloody corpse. You shove some otehrs aside to take a glimpse, and you see.... Ashford, who has been beheaded, his head hanging at the wall above him.

Irritated, you turn around to your bed, but no one is standing there, only a shadow remains.


Ashford (HT Reddy) is dead. He was innocent.



As you take a look through the lab, there is no sign of Qorgyle.



It is day 2.

8 players remain: Baelish, Cassel, Clegane, Dondarrion, Hunter, Kenning, Tully, Yronwood.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

8 players have not voted: Baelish, Cassel, Clegane, Dondarrion, Hunter, Kenning, Tully, Yronwood.

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Ashford is a strange choice.

There were two possibilities if Ashford had lived. Either he was Swann's partner trying to make Swann appear innocent by "shadow voting" for him, or that the puppet master or whatever was swann's partner trying to make swann look innocent via the shadow-voting.

If ashford had lived, we wouldn't know if we were looking for a puppet master, or if it was a clever scam by ashford himself.

Thanks, FM2. You've just removed one variable from this all :-) It's not often that the night kills simplify matters, is it?

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Oh, and I still think [b]Hunter[/b] has to die. I know he's only the symp, but all the same why should we keep him alive? Might as well knock them down to a probably voting block of 1. :-)

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And am I right in thinking Qorgyle is now CI?

If he isn't here, can't vote, and can't be voted for, can he kill? Very doubtful.

Of course there's still a possibility we're wrong on Hunter and Qorgyle is the symp, but then again there's an equal probability that I'm actually Brad Pitt, playing Mafia in order to beat back the monotony of an actor's life.

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Yeah, long night.
Cassel, I am not sure we should spend time on lynching Hunter, it would just prolong virtually solved game. If Kenning is right (and I totally agree with his brilliant analysis), last killer is Dondarrion, Baelish or at worst Qorgy. We have enough space to lynch all three.
As far as I remeber, Baelish gave us no opinions yet. Meawhile, Dondy eagerly tried to lynch sobody who was not Swann. So I'd suggest to start with lynching [b]Dondarrion[/b].

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