MAFIA 59

[House Clegane]

Ok, that's another RL day where I should leave before Kenning will appear. Too bad. Anyway, Kenning, I hope I gave you some help during last hours.
I'd say Qorgy looked very good when sleeping tooth to wall; after returning, he looks much worse. The choice is still between Qorgy and Dondy, I don't think we have any other real options.
Anyway, I'll see you all in next 8-10 hours.

[House Dondarrion]

I believe [b]Qorgyle[/b] is not being honest about his role. That kind of dishonesty is less than conducive to trust.

[House Upcliff]

Two things...

Firstly, Hunter probably made the king. Think about it, during the DAY he is asked who he trusts. The first time his "target" dies. The second time he goes with someone we all generally trust. Possibly as a way of framing him, as a kingmaker symp might go for his master, but that's too WIFOMy even for me. His action of sending in a name is a day action, it's just the following day it kicks in.

And Qorgyle's dissapearing act may well have been triggered by the lynch-1 vote on him? Perhaps it was a "dissapears in the first 2-3 days, either at x time, or before hand if at lynch-1"?

As for the rest, I'm back and will be on and off active for 3-4 hours now. I say on and off as I have other things to do, but will have long stretches at the PC, it just won't be a solid 3-4 hour block.

I'll look through for suspects just as soon as i've settled.

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1599086' date='Nov 24 2008, 15.30']I believe [b]Qorgyle[/b] is not being honest about his role. That kind of dishonesty is less than conducive to trust.[/quote]


Why would he lie. "I was close to dying to jumped forward in time, because I'm an innocent so the team is best served if I don't die" would have been a perfectly good, believable answer.

I trust him in his power. I'm not saying he's NaK, just that he's not lying about his role.


edit: However I trust you less all of a sudden. Qorgy is a pretty vulnerable target to be jumping on right now, isn't he? Still time-sick and all that? And so close to a day 1 lynch. Seems a bit oppertunistic to jump on him over supposed dishonesty over his role.

[House Upcliff]

[quote name='House Qorgyle' post='1599027' date='Nov 24 2008, 14.16']I'm also suspicious of Cassel for [i]not[/i] pinging my radar in any way, shape, or form. If I get back to my computer at a non-stupid time, I think I'll do a reread on him.[/quote]


Nothing to ping, good sir. I'm just a roleless innocent.

At least, until i'm told what my bloody role is :(

edit: Maybe I'm Captain Useless? or Daddy-Longlegs man!

Daddy-longlegs man! Daddy-Longlegs man! He can do anything a daddy-longlegs can!

*bumbles around bumping into things*

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

6 players remain: Cassel, Clegane, Dondarrion, Kenning, Qorgyle, Yronwood.



1 vote for Qorgyle (Dondarrion)
1 vote for Yronwood (Qorgyle)

4 players have not voted: Cassel, Clegane, Kenning, Yronwood.

[House Payne]

Back, because I love you all. I have about half an hour before I've got to go again.

[quote name='House Clegane' post='1599042' date='Nov 24 2008, 10.29']I don't. I can't see a mod to influate a game this way. You do realize that without time travel you will be most likely lynched over Swann?
There is nothing to question. Of course, it was someone else. It as standard king-kingmaker routine. And, yes, the king maker should reveal now also. We should start to understand who is responsible for what.[/quote]
1) I disagree. I can't see such a role done in any other way. Were I an FM and I would jump time at lynch-1 votes, that'd be ridiculous not to mention unbalancing in a game as small as this one. As far as I can tell, it's just a quirky role used to add flavor to the game. While somebody could've triggered it... well, I don't see why they wouldn't fess up now.

2) I take you're not the KM? I'd subscribe to the Hunter-was-the-KM theory except Hunter was kinda dead before nightfall.

[quote name='House Yronwood' post='1599053' date='Nov 24 2008, 10.39']You're argument is basically - 1) you don't think Hunter was the symp, and 2) you would have rather been reckless and gone for the win right away. Well, I disagree with you on point 1. And, with regard to point 2, I rarely favor the reckless strategy. Better to play it safe than to rush ahead just because you're impatient.[/quote]
Fair enough. I think playing it safe is boring, but I can't see how arguing with you over this will lead to either of us changing our minds or anything at all besides us repeating ourselves. Agree to disagree? (I still don't like you for it though.)

[quote name='House Clegane' post='1599073' date='Nov 24 2008, 11.07']I'd say Qorgy looked very good when sleeping tooth to wall; after returning, he looks much worse. The choice is still between Qorgy and Dondy, I don't think we have any other real options.[/quote]
You know, I fail to see what I've done that was actually suspicious. Out of all the people that could be a possible partner to Swann (or another master to Hunter even), I don't really rank at the top of the list. I don't know how me believing that my power is mod-activated makes me any more suspicious than not since that's just a meta opinion on how the game works, but that seems like the only added factor against me since I got back to the game. But hey, your vote. Do what you want with it.

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1599086' date='Nov 24 2008, 11.30']I believe [b]Qorgyle[/b] is not being honest about his role. That kind of dishonesty is less than conducive to trust.[/quote]
You're so cute.

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1599019' date='Nov 24 2008, 13.08']Oh and just so it's no suprise, while Kenning is King, I have his powers today.[/quote]So both you and a kingmaker chose me or your power makes a king and takes their power? Just to confirm you aren't lying, what is the power you took from me?

Before I post what I'm thinking, I'd like to hear everyone give their top two options for FM. Do not base it off of Hunter because his role is not confirmed, so simply based on behavior and a partnership to Swann must be plausible.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Qorgyle' post='1599164' date='Nov 24 2008, 15.32']You're so cute.[/quote]

Thanks, I've worked very hard to become so.

The problem with a mod activated TT is that it promotes way too much mod interference. Piper is crazy, and I know that balance issues sometimes show up in his roles, but this is something he can use, at his discretion, to throw the game to whichever side he chooses. That's not him.

I don't think you're being honest with your role, and that makes me suspicious. Maybe it's weak, it does depend on two assumptions. First that you are lying, and second, that lying means you're an FM. Or perhaps a symp, but it seems like an awkward power for a symp to have, effectively being away from a position in which you can assist your FM.

Apart from that, the only thing that bothers me is the possibility that if you are an FM [i]and[/i] you were effectively out of the game during this period, you wouldn't be in a position to make a night kill.

[b]remove vote[/b]

I don't trust you, I think you're lying but i have to admit that last part is pretty good evidence that you're NaK.

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1599196' date='Nov 24 2008, 13.57']Apart from that, the only thing that bothers me is the possibility that if you are an FM [i]and[/i] you were effectively out of the game during this period, you wouldn't be in a position to make a night kill.

[b]remove vote[/b]

I don't trust you, I think you're lying but i have to admit that last part is pretty good evidence that you're NaK.[/quote]
Piper's said that were I an FM, I'd still be able to kill while time traveling, so you might want to put your vote back on.

I don't see what I could be lying about. If I wanted to say that I activated the power on my own, I could've. As it stands, I don't know any more than you do. I simply assume that it was a modly thing because I think that'd be the better way for a mod to handle it. I [i]really[/i] fail to see how that makes me more suspicious than if I believed another player activated it for me.

@Kenning: I don't know right now. I'll think about it while I'm out, but right now I think Clegane's one of my two. Iirc (and I do need to reread to check, so try not to flambe me tableside if I'm wrong, Cleg), I think he's been sheeping Yronwood an awful lot.

[House Dondarrion]

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1599190' date='Nov 24 2008, 15.51']So both you and a kingmaker chose me or your power makes a king and takes their power? Just to confirm you aren't lying, what is the power you took from me?

Before I post what I'm thinking, I'd like to hear everyone give their top two options for FM. Do not base it off of Hunter because his role is not confirmed, so simply based on behavior and a partnership to Swann must be plausible.[/quote]
If it is a side effect, it is one I'm not aware of.

As for your power, I learned nothing. Nothing happened, so I have to take a wild guess.

I asked if I should be sending a players name, or needed to perform any actions and was told that was not necessary.

Top two, hmm good one.

Qorgyle: was an early vote on Swann, before the disappearance. Further, Swann was an early voter for Qorgyle. It's possible that the choice was to distance in case either of them were lynched it does add some weight to his possible innocence. But I don't trust him and I don't trust his statements about his power. Plus his dissappearing made his vote on Swann moot. I'd put him as tier 1 based on that.

Clegane: was also an early vote for Swann, the first after Qorgy. I'd tier three him

Kenning: second vote after Clegane (third if you count Qorgyle, but I don't). I'd keep him on tier three as well.

Yronwood: Starting to reach the place where an FM might be willing to sacrifice a team member to look innocent. Tier 2

Cassel was weirder when he placed his vote, although Hunter pointing out the illogic of that is a point in his favor, since I feel pretty strongly that Hunter was a symp. I'd also place him at tier 1.5.

Finally, there's me. I will accept the fact that I'm the only person here, apart from Qorgyle, that did not vote for Swann. That alone is pretty good reason for me to be suspicious. No offense if i end up near the top of people's lists

[House Dondarrion]

And I'm out now for a while (probably until after lynch time).

[b]Qorgyle[/b]

[House Connington]

I hope people are here, I am starting to get slightly concerned about Thanksgiving coming up because, in all likelihood, I will be sans internet starting sometime tomorrow afternoon. I am considering making a choice possibly in the next 40 minutes and definitely tonight. Speak now or forever hold your peace. My gut right now is not telling me to go in a direction that I think most people will expect...

[House Payne]

I am here. I am also supposed to be hard at work, so I'd be hard-pressed to explain myself if anyone comes by, but I'm here.

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Qorgyle' post='1599306' date='Nov 24 2008, 17.59']I am here. I am also supposed to be hard at work, so I'd be hard-pressed to explain myself if anyone comes by, but I'm here.[/quote]If you could, I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on Clegane. IIRC your top two would be Clegane and Dondarrion, correct? I'm not sure at this point there is too much more to discuss about Dondarrion, so other options need to be looked at a bit more.

[House Yronwood]

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1599190' date='Nov 24 2008, 14.51']Before I post what I'm thinking, I'd like to hear everyone give their top two options for FM. Do not base it off of Hunter because his role is not confirmed, so simply based on behavior and a partnership to Swann must be plausible.[/quote]

I've done a few re-reads, and I think Qorgyle, Cassel, and Dondarrion are all realistic possibilities. Clegane too, but I currently rank him behind the other 3.


A few things to note about Qorgyle (I'm going to start with him, and will hopefully have time to post about the others later):

1) He voted for Swann twice....however, I don't think either vote comes close to clearing him.

The first vote was a joke. As such, it wasn't a serious effort to get Swann lynched. However, I do think it could potentially be a point against Qorg, now that we know that Swann was FM.

Why? Because its possible that Qorg saw Swann getting votes, and he felt he had to jump onto the mob. He would have known that it was extremely unlikely for Swann to be lynched that early, so the risk of actually lynching his partner would have been low. And the payoff could have potentially been high - he would have created distance, just in case Swann was somehow lynched at that time, and he also would have created some distance if Swann survived, but was lynched later in the game.

2) And the second vote is fairly meaningless, given the circumstances under which it came. Qorg was at 4 votes (out of 6 necessary to lynch). Swann was at 2 votes. And Hunter was at 1 vote. So of course an evil Qorg would have had to vote for Swann. For 2 reasons -

-- In part because he would have wanted to create distance, in case Swann was lynched. But, as Kenning pointed out, would he have really chosen that path over perhaps voting for Hunter (who had 1 vote) and establishing a 3rd viable lynch option? Its hard to say.

-- More importantly, he would have wanted to create distance with Swann in case he (Qorg) was lynched. He was already at 4 votes. The odds of him being lynched were high. If he's evil, he would have known he was going to flip as FM. So he could have very easily cast a desperation vote at Swann, to at least attempt to create some distance between them.

Basically, my point is...when you add in the extra ingredient of Qorg being the 2nd option on the chopping block, alongside Swann? Evil Qorg would almost certainly have to vote for his partner there. He wouldn't have much choice.

Now, I'm not saying this 2nd vote is necessarily a point against Qorg. I'm just saying it shouldn't count as a point in his favor either. If he's FM, that vote on Swann was pretty much a necessity.

3) He never actually helped to get Swann lynched. This isn't his fault, because he obviously wasn't given the opportunity. Its a point about the way the lynch went down, and it applies to everyone who wasn't a part of the lynch. Basically, as we have already discussed, every vote was needed to make that particular lynch happen. If any of us had refrained from voting for Swann, he would have lived. So participating in the lynch makes us all look a bit better. And the people off the lynch look worse.

4) In Qorg's favor is the fact that Hunter voted for him. If Hunter was the symp, I wouldn't expect him to vote for his FM master. That said, the circumstances were fairly unique - Hunter didn't have a whole lot of options. If Qorg and Swann were his masters, he would have either had to vote for one of them or introduce an entirely new candidate for the lynch. And it was doubtful that the latter path would have succeeded, at that point in the day.

Conclusion - There isn't a ton of information to go on, because Qorg was missing for the end of day 1, and all of day 2. But I don't think anything he did on day 1 speaks in his favor. Originally, I felt that his 4th vote on the early lynch mob against Swann made him look innocent, but now that we know Swann was FM, its actually a small point against him. And the reality is, he's a suspect by default, due to his inability to contribute to the lynch mob on day 2.

[House Connington]

One point in Qorgyle's favor is Swann's vote on Qorgyle which put Qorgyle at 3 and really head and shoulders above other lynch candidates. This was the vote that immediately resulted in votes by Clegane and I for Swann to bring him to 2 and then Dondarrion voting Qorgyle to make it 4-2. Is that too obvious a move by Dondarrion to be partners? Would Clegane, as Swann's partner, call into question his vote on Qorgyle, cast a vote on him and then leave for the day?

[House Payne]

[quote name='House Yronwood' post='1599319' date='Nov 24 2008, 16.13']Conclusion - There isn't a ton of information to go on, because Qorg was missing for the end of day 1, and all of day 2. But I don't think anything he did on day 1 speaks in his favor. Originally, I felt that his 4th vote on the early lynch mob against Swann made him look innocent, but now that we know Swann was FM, its actually a small point against him. And the reality is, he's a suspect by default, due to his inability to contribute to the lynch mob on day 2.[/quote]
I thought Swann was likelier innocent than guilty, thus I wasn't overeager to push his lynch--at that time, I was looking for someone else to make a case on. I got disappeared before I could get anything done to that means though.

The original fourth vote was meant to stir up discussion. It had been quiet, and I wanted to do something that'd make people talk. It didn't really work back then, though I guess people are talking about it now.

@Kenning: Sorry, but I haven't got much to say without sitting down and rereading. I do think he needs to be looked at. I think he's had a few moments of individualism, but for the most part, I get the vibe (as said, haven't done a re-read, so I can't prove anything right now) that he's been low radar cruising so far.

[House Yronwood]

Okay, some thoughts on Cassel, and how he relates to Swann.

First, an early vote on Swann. He's careful to say that its not a joke vote. Could be early distancing -

[quote name='Cassel']I'm a little uncomfortable about someone joining only to jump on the first lynch train. Joke [b]vote removed[/b], non-joke vote [b]Swann[/b] added.[/quote]

He removes that vote 90 minutes later.

Later on in the day, when things are getting more serious, Cassel repeatedly says that he's willing to vote for Swann, but he'd rather vote for Qorg. Pretty much exactly what you'd expect from a FM partner.

[quote name='Cassel']I have to agree that Swann is a better "low poster" vote than Bael, as he actually has ties to other people so it's not a totally information-free lynch even if wrong. Add in the fact that he could be partners with Qorgyle, and I'm very happy to switch if Qorg ends up unlikely to swing.[/quote]

[quote name='Cassel']Personally I'm happy to switch to Swann. I'd rather stay on Qorgyle though.[/quote]

So Qorg is his top option, and he keeps his vote there. But he also makes sure that we know Swann is on his suspect list too. If he's evil, he's basically keeping his options open, in case he needs to move his vote over to Swann for the sake of distancing.

After Qorg is gone, he says -

[quote name='Cassel']Qorgyle is still my first choice.[/quote]
[quote name='Cassel']So Targ, can we still vote off Qorgy or is he totally gone for now?[/quote]

Kind of seems like he's hoping we can still lynch Qorgyle. Possibly because he's worried that the mob really will turn toward Swann.

I don't have time to go through his day 2 posts right now. Kind of squeezing this in at work, when I really should be doing actual work. But based on the way he pushed for Qorg, and consistently said Swann was his 2nd option, I think Cassel has to be viewed as a suspect.

Yeah, his vote for Swann is a point in his favor, because every vote was needed to lynch Swann. But its possible that he backed himself into a corner, and realized that he didn't have any choice. Think about it - he could have never anticipated Qorg just disappearing like that. And after saying that Swann was his 2nd choice for so long, what else could he do? He pretty much had to fall in line and vote Swann at that point.

[House Connington]

[quote name='House Yronwood' post='1599368' date='Nov 24 2008, 19.09']I don't have time to go through his day 2 posts right now. Kind of squeezing this in at work, when I really should be doing actual work. But based on the way he pushed for Qorg, and consistently said Swann was his 2nd option, I think Cassel has to be viewed as a suspect.

Yeah, his vote for Swann is a point in his favor, because every vote was needed to lynch Swann. But its possible that he backed himself into a corner, and realized that he didn't have any choice. Think about it - he could have never anticipated Qorg just disappearing like that. And after saying that Swann was his 2nd choice for so long, what else could he do? He pretty much had to fall in line and vote Swann at that point.[/quote]Thanks Yronwood, I'll reread his day 2 posts.