Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

HT Reddy

Mafia 59.5 - Murder In Trinity College

Recommended Posts

[quote name='Lany Cassandra' post='1610206' date='Dec 5 2008, 16.50']It has to do with personalities, not logic. If WJ was an evil role finder and he verified I was innocent, there is a greater than 90% possibility that I would follow him blindly.[/quote]

Gah, I've been finding your openness very disarming.

I still think Tsoert is our FM, but to maximise winning odds it has to be you I think. I don't think you're guilty but I can't afford to take that chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='The Man Who' post='1610212' date='Dec 5 2008, 09.56']Gah, I've been finding your openness very disarming.

I still think Tsoert is our FM, but to maximise winning odds it has to be you I think. I don't think you're guilty but I can't afford to take that chance.[/quote]


how does it maxumize the odds to not lynch the person you think guilty? I am dead tonight anyway (most likely) so it doesn't matter a whole lot I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Lany Cassandra' post='1610183' date='Dec 5 2008, 15.32']You're not lynching me. I am innocent. Look at all my actions. Look how much Harlot attacked me. Harlot came up guilty. What does that mean?[/quote]
We both played the same game long ago when we were killers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ok one thing that I don't understand (ok, actually it's two - the other is an innocent guard that chooses a VPI as a target) is an evil player revealing a role while we are lynching an innocent player (mentat). What the hell did Masonity think? He wasn't even a prime suspect at that time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Lany Cassandra' post='1610221' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.05']how does it maxumize the odds to not lynch the person you think guilty? I am dead tonight anyway (most likely) so it doesn't matter a whole lot I guess.[/quote]

I think I explained it before, but if you and WJ are guilty and either me or Tsoert get lynched, you would basically have the game won. As I said I don't think this is likely but it isn't impossible.

On the other hand, if we lynch you, we eliminate that possibility and Week just needs to use his double votes to nail the one remaining FM.

So it doesn't really make sense that I'm not going to try and lynch the person I think most guilty today, but when taken into overall game strategy it does, and improves the innocents' chance of winning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Piper of Chaos' post='1610226' date='Dec 5 2008, 10.09']Ok one thing that I don't understand (ok, actually it's two - the other is an innocent guard that chooses a VPI as a target) is an evil player revealing a role while we are lynching an innocent player (mentat). What the hell did Masonity think? He wasn't even a prime suspect at that time.[/quote]


I don't know. I can't figure out anything in this game. too many things don't make sense. my paranoid side is screaming to lynch WJ though (but then, it always is ;) )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='The Man Who' post='1610233' date='Dec 5 2008, 10.12']I think I explained it before, but if you and WJ are guilty and either me or Tsoert get lynched, you would basically have the game won. As I said I don't think this is likely but it isn't impossible.

On the other hand, if we lynch you, we eliminate that possibility and Week just needs to use his double votes to nail the one remaining FM.

So it doesn't really make sense that I'm not going to try and lynch the person I think most guilty today, but when taken into overall game strategy it does, and improves the innocents' chance of winning.[/quote]

oh, it is based on WJ and I both being guilty. That makes sense. We should lynch WJ then :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Piper of Chaos' post='1610226' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.09']Ok one thing that I don't understand (ok, actually it's two - the other is an innocent guard that chooses a VPI as a target) is an evil player revealing a role while we are lynching an innocent player (mentat). What the hell did Masonity think? He wasn't even a prime suspect at that time.[/quote]

I really didn't understand the whole Masonity thing - it made no sense what he did. Self-implosion maybe.

I wasn't there when he 'went mad' but prior to that I thought he was one of the people more probable to be innocent. Which made it weird when I came in the next day and he had been lynched.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Lany Cassandra' post='1610235' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.14']oh, it is based on WJ and I both being guilty. That makes sense. We should lynch WJ then :P[/quote]

The problem is, if I hadn't heard people raving about WJ and if I hadn't gone back and read a couple of previous game spoiler threads, I would think of WJ as basically CI. But it's WJ... if anyone can play the hypothesised role it would have to be him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not lynching Lany. Think about what we've just been told. Mullendore can be night killed. So if Lany is innocent, then we're going to get this series of events.

Day 5 - lynch Lany and Piper explodes

Night 5 - Mullendore dies

4 players remain - Week, WJ, Tsoert, TMW

Tsoert and TMW vote for each other. Week and WJ have to decide who to lynch. Understand ---> [u]WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LYNCH THEM BOTH[/u]

They are suggesting that lynching Lany is the safe move. Its clearly not. At this point, we can only lynch 2 of Tsoert, TMW, and Lany, because Mullendore is vulnerable to a night kill. We cannot lynch all 3 of them.

To me, its clear that one of them is evil, and is pushing for a last chance to win the game. Anybody who falls for it is a sucker.

I say we vote [b]The Man Who[/b] today, and if the game continues, then its Tsoert tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It is day 5.

7 players remain: House Mullendore, Lany Cassandra, Piper of Chaos, The Man Who, Tsoert, Weekapaug, WhiskeyJack.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for The Man Who (WhiskeyJack, Lany Cassandra)
1 vote for Lany Cassandra (Tsoert)

4 players have not voted: House Mullendore, Piper of Chaos, The Man Who, Weekapaug.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Whiskeyjack' post='1610256' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.27']I'm not lynching Lany. Think about what we've just been told. Mullendore can be night killed. So if Lany is innocent, then we're going to get this series of events.

Day 5 - lynch Lany and Piper explodes

Night 5 - Mullendore dies

4 players remain - Week, WJ, Tsoert, TMW

Tsoert and TMW vote for each other. Week and WJ have to decide who to lynch. Understand ---> [u]WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LYNCH THEM BOTH[/u]

They are suggesting that lynching Lany is the safe move. Its clearly not. At this point, we can only lynch 2 of Tsoert, TMW, and Lany, because Mullendore is vulnerable to a night kill. We cannot lynch all 3 of them.

To me, its clear that one of them is evil, and is pushing for a last chance to win the game. Anybody who falls for it is a sucker.

I say we vote [b]The Man Who[/b] today, and if the game continues, then its Tsoert tomorrow.[/quote]

Well obviously the move makes sense to me, because I consider myself CI to myself. To me, if Lany is innocent, it tells me that WJ is also innocent, and I'll look to lynch Tsoert. If Lany is guilty, if the game doesn't end, I'll look to lynch WJ.

I'm still unconvinced by WJ's fixation that Lany is CI, using logic to me that is overly flimsy. It makes me suspicious. And if you take away Lany being CI, we're in a similar situation to the one WJ has so kindly described, only with 3 players instead of two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='The Man Who' post='1610272' date='Dec 5 2008, 10.40']Well obviously the move makes sense to me, because I consider myself CI to myself. To me, if Lany is innocent, it tells me that WJ is also innocent, and I'll look to lynch Tsoert. If Lany is guilty, if the game doesn't end, I'll look to lynch WJ.

I'm still unconvinced by WJ's fixation that Lany is CI, using logic to me that is overly flimsy. It makes me suspicious. And if you take away Lany being CI, we're in a similar situation to the one WJ has so kindly described, only with 3 players instead of two.[/quote]


You cannot corralate mine and WJ's innocense. He can still be guilty even though I am innocent (I don't really think he is though, I am just pointing this out) He could have suckered me in, knowing I would trust him if he CIed me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Lany Cassandra' post='1610277' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.46']You cannot corralate mine and WJ's innocense. He can still be guilty even though I am innocent (I don't really think he is though, I am just pointing this out) He could have suckered me in, knowing I would trust him if he CIed me.[/quote]

Well then I'm stuck. I need some sort of binding somewhere that I can rely on at this point and I don't have it,

WJ has it with his belief in you being CI, which coupled with his force of character means that we will probably end up doing what he wants. Which makes me hope that anyone but WJ is the killer.

Thinking things through now, I don't actually feel I can go through with the vote on Lany. But then I'm stuck on what to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Lany Cassandra' post='1610277' date='Dec 5 2008, 16.46']You cannot corralate mine and WJ's innocense. He can still be guilty even though I am innocent (I don't really think he is though, I am just pointing this out) He could have suckered me in, knowing I would trust him if he CIed me.[/quote]
Lany, if you are innocent, Masonity is guilty and WJ is hence innocent. There is a correlation.

If you are guilty it doesn't neccessarily mean that WJ is also guilty, that's true.


I still think that mentat has been evil. He must, he must, he must, he must be evil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Piper of Chaos' post='1610280' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.50']Lany, if you are innocent, Masonity is guilty and WJ is hence innocent. There is a correlation.

If you are guilty it doesn't neccessarily mean that WJ is also guilty, that's true.


I still think that mentat has been evil. He must, he must, he must, he must be evil.[/quote]

I can't tell if you're being serious about Mentat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='The Man Who' post='1610279' date='Dec 5 2008, 17.50']Well then I'm stuck. I need some sort of binding somewhere that I can rely on at this point and I don't have it,

WJ has it with his belief in you being CI, which coupled with his force of character means that we will probably end up doing what he wants. Which makes me hope that anyone but WJ is the killer.

Thinking things through now, I don't actually feel I can go through with the vote on Lany. But then I'm stuck on what to do.[/quote]

Gah.

I don't know if I can trust the supposed correlation between Lany and WJ.

I'd like to, but I don't see how it is any better than WJ's logic to CI Lany.

I think my brain will explode any second now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×