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Werthead

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)

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Carried on from the last topic [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?showtopic=30232"]here[/url].

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My crack pot theory is that R+L = Jon and Twin

Lyanna had twins but one of the babies was clearly a Targaryen (ie violet eyes or silver hair).
Already knowing that any Targaryen heir was a threat to Robert's claim to the throne the baby had to be hidden by Ned to protect him/her. Since Jon looked like a Stark Ned could claim him. But if the other on had a distiguishing Targaryen characteristic you would have to hide it farther from home.

What happened to the Twin? I believe he/she was taken by someone who's demise is exagerated. Ashara Dayne. Probably took her to Braavos or another one of the Free Cities.

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Wylla, who lives at Starfall, may have some of the Targish Dayne coloring. I wonder if that's why she was chosen to be Jon's wetnurse; if he looked like a Targaryen, people seeing her wouldn't be suspicious of Rhaegar.

I gotta say I hope we don't have a missing twin thing. Didn't we all see Star Wars?

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[quote name='Shewoman' post='1640792' date='Jan 7 2009, 13.58']Wylla, who lives at Starfall,l may have some of the Targish Dayne coloring. I wonder if that's why she was chosen to be Jon's wetnurse; if he looked like a Targaryen, people seeing her wouldn't be suspicious of Rhaegar.

I gotta say I hope we don't have a missing twin thing. Didn't we all see Star Wars?[/quote]
Yes, I hope there is not a "missing twin" scenario here, either (although I think if anyone could do it well and make it believable, Martin could). I think an important thing to remember is that people's hair color often changes as they grow. So, if a baby has a "Targ" look it may not have that look later and vice versa.

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There is absolutely no evidence to support a 'Missing Twin' scenario, so thankfully that's not very likely. (Though I wouldn't say [i]Star Wars[/i] had one -- Leia became Luke's twin pretty much out of the left field with little warning beforehand. But I digress.)

Since this is a new thread, perhaps we should summarize the current most popular theories?

[i]1. L + R = J[/i]
The most popular theory and the one to which I personally hold. The basic idea is that Lyanna and Rhaegar had a child: Jon. The theory is well-supported as it explains many things throughout the books:

-Ned's promise. Ned found Lyanna dying of childbirth, and promised Lyanna that he would keep Jon safe (a promise that has caused Ned much grief throughout the years, due to all the lies he has been forced to tell to his loved ones).
-The dragon has three heads. We know that Rhaegar was at the very least interested in the prophecy of the Prince that was Promised, and that said prophecy has some connection to "the dragon has three heads". The original three-headed dragon was Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters, Visenya and Rhaenys. Rhaegar's two eldest children are Aegon and Rhaenys. Rhaegar believed his son, Aegon, was the Prince who was Promised (according to Maester Aemon). But in that case, there's a daughter, Visenya, missing. Rhaegar's wife, Elia, was very frail and almost died during her previous child births. Even if there was no romantic relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna, they might have tried to fullfill the prophecy by getting the last child.
-The Kingsguard at the tower of joy. Why were they at the tower instead of at their king's side -- or at the very least, at their prince's? If the Kingsguard were posted at the tower because they were protecting a royal heir, it's explained. They certainly were not shirking their duty -- they only fought because of it. "The Kingsguard does not flee."

[i]2. W + N = J[/i]
The second-most popular theory and the only one which has direct evidence in the text. Ned confirms to Robert that Jon's mother is called Wylla (and he has confirmed many times that he is Jon's father). Arya is also told that a woman called Wylla claimed to be Jon's mother.

[i]3. A + N = J[/i]
The last of the popular theories. Many considers it likely that Ned and Ashara Dayne had a romantic relationship (and there is evidence for it in the text). The logical conclusion (if you do not accept that Wylla is Jon's mother) is to suppose that Ashara is. It is popular among the nobility as evidenced when Cersei flings it in Ned's face.

As you may have noticed, the latter two are a little sparser than the first, but considering that I feel the first must be true, that's probably only natural. :P If anyone else could fill them out more?

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I think Wylla's function is to be someone Ned can identify as Jon's mother if necessary (as he did in one of his early conversations with Robert Baratheon in the crypt at Winterfell in Game of Thrones). In the series present she is allowing people to think that she is Jon's mother (according to Edric Dayne, Lord of Starfall). I doubt that she really is Jon's mother since it's hard to come up with a reason why her identity would have to be a secret. I can't think of any reason why the knowledge that Jon's mother was a Dornish wetnurse would create any difficulty for anyone. I doubt that Ned is protecting her honor; I don't think that culture thought of servants as having any. Since she is a wetnurse, she must have borne and nursed a child at some point. It would be interesting to know who the child and its father were and what happened to them.

According to Meera's account of Harrenhal in Storm of Swords, Ned and Ashara were attracted to each other at the tournament. However, Martin has said that Harrenhal was 1 or 2 years before the war (which lasted a year) broke out. Certainly no child conceived around the time of Harrenhal could be the Jon Snow--8-9 months older than Dany, according to Martin--who was born near the time of the Sack of Kings Landing and the war's end. So far the only other time we know Ashara and Ned were together was when Ned went to Starfall in order to return Arthur Dayne's sword, and since Jon was already alive at that time (he is apparently about the same age as Robb) it is highly unlikely that he was conceived then.

Ned's older brother Brandon was engaged to Catelyn Tully, but when Lyanna disappeared he and his squires rode to Kings Landing to accost Rhaegar about Lyanna. Ultimately Brandon, his father, his squires, and their fathers were all killed; Jaime witnessed the murders of Brandon and Rickard Stark. The Starks, Tullys, and Arryns agreed to form an alliance against Aerys; this required Jon Arryn to marry Lysa Tully and Ned Stark to marry her sister Catelyn. It is possible that he would have married Ashara if he had had the choice, but we don't know that.

We don't know what Ned promised Lyanna; it may be that he promised to keep Jon safe and he seems to have done his best to do so, but even though his thoughts frequently turn back to his last encounter with his sister, he doesn't actually think of what he promised her. Nor do we know that she died of childbirth. Ned found her in a room that smelled of blood but we don't actuallyknow what caused the bleeding or even whose blood it is. It could be Lyanna's. Theon at some point had a dream in which he was in the Great Hall of Winterfell and he saw all of the dead Starks, including Robb wearing Grey Wolf's head and Lyanna in a white dress covered with blood. Does this connect with the blood Ned smelled in her room? Is it a reference to her death? Or to the Westerosi blood shed because of Rhaegar and Lyanna?

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[quote name='Szar' post='1642390' date='Jan 9 2009, 04.57'][i]2. W + N = J[/i]
The second-most popular theory and the only one which has direct evidence in the text. Ned confirms to Robert that Jon's mother is called Wylla (and he has confirmed many times that he is Jon's father). Arya is also told that a woman called Wylla claimed to be Jon's mother.

As you may have noticed, the latter two are a little sparser than the first, but considering that I feel the first must be true, that's probably only natural. :P If anyone else could fill them out more?[/quote]

There is one more evidence which supports W+N=J..

SPOILER: aDwD
In a Davos POV that has been read,the summary of which can be found in the aDwD forum...it is revealed that Ned and Wylla first met near Riverrun and that she helped him out when he had trouble crossing over.It is said that she ferried him across on a boat and that he left her with a bastard in her belly and silver.She went onto name him Jon Snow,after the Lord of the Eyrie.Admittedly there are loopholes in this..but the remarkable thing is the time-line suits perfectly.


Well that makes it 3 separate cases in the text where it is explicitly mentioned that Wylla and Ned are Jon's parents.The only question that needs answering is why Ned takes so much pain to hide the facts from Catelyn and more importantly Jon?

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[quote name='Ghost's claw' post='1643528' date='Jan 10 2009, 02.32']There is one more evidence which supports W+N=J..[/quote]

Actually, it doesn't.

SPOILER: aDwD
The fisherwoman was in the Vale, not Riverrun. She ferried Ned north, when they first rebelled. And there is zero reason to think that she somehow went to Starfall, half-a-country away and became a Dayne retainer. This woman wasn't Wylla, but a fourth candidate for Jon-mom. Personally, I am fairly sure that she was the wet-nurse that was installed at WF with Jon, when Cat first came. And who apparently vanished as soon as her services were no longer required - pretty unusual for the setting.

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I'm a supporter of the whole L+R=J, and I think there is a lot to support it. So one question to those who do think that Jon is Rhaegar's son. We know that Melisandre had a vision to wake a dragon with the blood of a king. Perhaps she is misinterpreting her vision, but what if she's not? What if the blood she needs is Jon's? I mean, if you believe the whole L+R=J, then Jon has the right blood in his veins. This thought crossed my mind, and the only reason I doubt it is because he already has Ghost.

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SPOILER: ADWD
It's also simply a tale that Davos is told. It is not proof of anything and is not even credible on its own. It is simply a possibility, but it is just as likely as any other random woman.


Satin, whatever the case, I think Melisandre is too late. Daenerys already woke the dragons, and she certainly has the blood of a king.

The dragons at Dragonstone are made of [i]stone[/i]. They're just carved out of the rock. It's possible she could use magic to animate them, but I seriously doubt it.

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The way Ned left the woman in the spoiler in post #7 above doesn't sound very much like Ned to me. It may be true, but it's also possible that after he left she realized she was pregnant by someone else and decided to claim it was a Lord's child rather than a local boy's in the hope of getting more money out of it.

Maia, you may well be right about the woman in the spoiler in post #8.

I'm not sure how much value to place on these spoilers. Ned has claimed to be Jon's father since he got home with the child after the war, so we already knew that. He is also apparently not trying to stop the Wylla at Starfall in the series present from letting people think she's Jon's mother (and I have to say that sending a woman pregnant with your bastard child to the family of your first love who suicided the last time she saw you sounds a bit odd). If, indeed, Jon's mother is a Dornish wetnurse, why isn't Ned telling Catelyn, Jon, and passing strangers about it? Why hasn't he been doing so for years? What's the need for secrecy? Why the hoo-hah? Some on this board have suggested it's because Ned is ashamed to have sired a bastard, but that doesn't keep him from publicly claiming Jon as his son for years.

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While I personally hold to L+R=J, I don't buy that argument. Even if he's ashamed to have sired a bastard, Ned is too much of an honorable man not to admit it. That doesn't mean he has to parade the woman around. It's not respectful to Wylla, it's not respectful to Catelyn. Jon deserves his place at Winterfell as one of Ned's sons, but Ned [i]cannot[/i] bring Wylla there.

What is not explained is why Ned never told Jon who his mother is. He deserves to know.

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I have seen posts suggesting that IF R+L=J and Ned told Jon and Catelyn that, Cat's attitude towards Jon would change noticeably (and Jon's probably would too) and people might start wondering why in ways that might create problems for Jon's safety. I doubt, however, if all that many people are aware of how Catelyn generally treats Jon.

I think it more realistic that (showing my already obvious choice) Ned knows who Jon's mother was and can't say it. If he announces that Jon's mother was Lyanna, Robert (who kills Rhaegar in his dreams every night) would surely assume that a) Jon's father is Rhaegar, and b) Ned has been lying to Robert and undermining his kingship and his supposed true-blood children's rights by secretly raising a member--illegitimate or not--of the recently deposed monarchy all this time.

If Ned has decided that he cannot tell the truth about this issue, what he needs is someone he can identify as Jon's mother if anyone ever starts suspecting Lyanna, as he does when Robert presses him in the Winterfell crypt. Wylla fits the bill well. She lives in the south, and Ned brings Jon (and an unnamed wetnurse) from the south to Winterfell. There is nothing threatening about the idea of Wylla as Jon's mother. When Robert asks him who Jon's mother is, Ned somewhat relunctantly gives Wylla's name--a name that, at this point at least, seems unlikely to cause any difficulty for him, Jon, or Robert.

It is interesting that Wylla is apparently going along with this plot. I wonder why. I know I've said this before, but in order to be a wetnurse she must have borne and nursed a child. If we knew what happened to that child and its father--we've never seen Wylla with lover or child--we might know better what her agenda is.

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Here is what bothers me about the theory of R+L=J . Jon doesn't have ANY of the Targaryen features. He doesn't have purple eyes, satin/blond(?) hair and most importantly he doesn't have dragon dreams! All the Targs we've known have been obsessed with dragons one way or another and yet the only dreams Jon has are wolf dreams. At the same time if Jon isn't Lyanna's boy then what did she make Ned promise that haunted him so much? :unsure:

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[quote name='Ser Torgom The Armenian' post='1644104' date='Jan 10 2009, 19.31']Here is what bothers me about the theory of R+L=J . Jon doesn't have ANY of the Targaryen features.[/quote]

I've seen good arguments that he has Targaryen madness. His rage-filled assault on Ser Aliser Thorn in AGOT and his rage-filled burst against Iron Emmett in ASOS seem much like Viserys' "waking the dragon."

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That's neither here nor there. Robb, Bran, Rickon and Sansa have the Tully look, and while they might have some Tully characteristics, what dominates is their Stark-side. If Jon is half Stark and half Targaryen, there's plenty of reason why his Stark-side should be dominant. He's been living in the North all his life. He's been raised by Ned Stark, one of the least crazed people in the entire series. (He was politically naïve to the point of being stupid occasionally, but he wasn't crazy.) He has a frickin' dire wolf pet, the Starks' banner.

And as Piper notes, he might have shown some Targaryen characteristics already.

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[quote name='Piper' post='1644224' date='Jan 10 2009, 18.52']I've seen good arguments that he has Targaryen madness. His rage-filled assault on Ser Aliser Thorn in AGOT and his rage-filled burst against Iron Emmett in ASOS seem much like Viserys' "waking the dragon."[/quote]


If Ser Aliser Thorn treated me the way he had been treating Jon, I would go after that bastard a lot sooner then Jon ever did and I promise you I don't have any Targaryen blood in me :P

Besides Jon isn't a result of another incest so he shouldn't be infected by the madness.

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[quote name='Ser Torgom The Armenian' post='1644300' date='Jan 10 2009, 23.34']Besides Jon isn't a result of another incest so he shouldn't be infected by the madness.[/quote]

Assuming R + L = J, there was certainly incest farther up the family tree. The Stark blood would certainly do better mixing up the genes than more Targaryen (or even Martel) blood, but that doesn't undo 300 years of Targaryen intermarriage.

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[quote name='Piper' post='1644303' date='Jan 10 2009, 23.43']Assuming R + L = J, there was certainly incest farther up the family tree. The Stark blood would certainly do better mixing up the genes than more Targaryen (or even Martel) blood, but that doesn't undo 300 years of Targaryen intermarriage.[/quote]

Sorry, but that's nonsense. You only get one set of genes from each parent. The danger of inbreeding is that chance of 2 damaged recessive allels meeting is higher if parents genes come from the same source, nothing else. So, yes, a single outbreeding _does_ completely undo bad effects of previous inbreeding for the resulting individual.

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[quote name='Maia' post='1644470' date='Jan 11 2009, 14.15']Sorry, but that's nonsense. You only get one set of genes from each parent. The danger of inbreeding is that chance of 2 damaged recessive allels meeting is higher if parents genes come from the same source, nothing else. So, yes, a single outbreeding _does_ completely undo bad effects of previous inbreeding for the resulting individual.[/quote]
That's an extreme oversimplification, and not correct.

A has 40% damaged recessive alleles. B has 20%. Let's say just for the sake of argument that A is the result of incest and B represents the general population. Any child of such a coupling will have roughly 30% damaged recessive alleles on average -- half of one parent, half of the other.

A single outbreeding does a lot, perhaps even removing any and all signs of inbreeding, but it does not "completely undo bad effects of previous inbreeding for the resulting individual". The individual still possesses more damaged recessive alleles than anyone who was not the result of incest.

Speaking on average, of course.

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