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The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)


Werthead

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The point is that Sarella knows or rather suspects about “three heads†before she became close to Marwyn. Therefore whoever was the source of her suspects – he is not Marwyn. I would be very surprised if she knows anything about the TOJ but she may know something about Rhaegar and Lyanna. More important – she will become close to Sam who is the link to Jon.

Marwyn… I already posted once that it seems that his long trip to the East took place after the War of Usurper. So it is quite possible that something that happened during the war caused Marwyn to take the trip. Something that connected to the dragons and the prophecy. I agree that he may have been present at TOJ and he is on the way to Daenerys while the only person who was there for sure - Howland Reed is not.

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Well, I still see no reason to tell any secrets to Allyria years later. I mean, it is a dangerous and seemingly obsolete knowledge - why burden a young maiden or a child with it? The case should have been closed for the Daynes, IMHO.

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Everyone knows about "three heads", it's linked with Targaryen mythos, it's on their shield, and possibly, it's in prophecy. It has nothing to do with knowing who could be a "head", especially when Martin confirmed that head didn't equate Targaryen.

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I already posted once that it seems that his long trip to the East took place after the War of Usurper. So it is quite possible that something that happened during the war caused Marwyn to take the trip.

It's true that he went East after robert's Rebellion, but not necessarily immediately after:

"When Marwyn had returned to Oldtown, after spending eight years in the east mapping distant lands, searching for lost books, and studying with warlocks and shadowbinders..."

Eight out of sixteen or so years between the Sack and aFfC. It's not clear how long ago he returned, but the Reader mentioned Hotho bringing him back a copy of Marwyn's Book of Lost Books, and apparently recently, since it was an enticement to wed Hotho's daughter. It could very possibly have been five or six years after the war that Marwyn departed.

Of course that doesn't mean anything if he was merely inspired by something in the war to seek eastward...it might have taken him a while to make preparations (though he didn't waste a second when he decided to go back). It does argue against a sort of coerced departure, as has been suggested in the past...such as if he was the ToJ maester and Ned or the Daynes required him to leave the continent so he couldn't blab, or if he was the pre-Cressen maester on Dragonstone.

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Eight out of sixteen or so years between the Sack and aFfC. It's not clear how long ago he returned, but the Reader mentioned Hotho bringing him back a copy of Marwyn's Book of Lost Books, and apparently recently, since it was an enticement to wed Hotho's daughter. It could very possibly have been five or six years after the war that Marwyn departed.

The fact the Reader recently got a copy of Marwyn’s books tells us nothing about how much time ago it was finished and even less about how much time ago it was started. To write a book takes some time (all RGGM fans should be well aware about it :):(). Besides Marwyn trip should have been authorized. Maesters do not choose freely where they want to serve and where they want to go. Perhaps archmaesters do have such a freedom but we do not know when Marwyn became one. He is not very old and it is unlikely that anyone achieve the position while young. So we could not place Marwyn trip in time exactly besides that it most likely took place after the War of Usurper.

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The fact the Reader recently got a copy of Marwyn’s books tells us nothing about how much time ago it was finished and even less about how much time ago it was started. To write a book takes some time

If it's primarily a publishing of other people's work, it shouldn't take that long. Or rather, the time-consuming part was going out an collecting them in the first place, the annotations or commentary possibly much less. Regardless, if he got back five years ago, that's still plenty of time, and still leaves 3 or so between the war and his departure. Of course we don't know yet. My impression is that he's fairly recently returned to the Citadel, because his disruption of the status quo still seems fresh.

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Besides Marwyn trip should have been authorized. Maesters do not choose freely where they want to serve and where they want to go.

Well, it looks to me like they have some say in whether they'd go to some castle or not. I am sure that the Citadel hierarchy would have loved to send Marwyn to serve at the Wall or somewhere equally remote ;).

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We have no slightest idea how mach time it takes in Westeros to publish a book. There was no mention of printing press and to scribe to make one copy took from month to years. The only clue about timing of Marwyn’s return is that Pate thinks about it like he was already present in Citadel by the time but Pate spent in Citadel 5 years. Yet if Marwyn knew or suspected that dragon heads were still infants of small children after the War of Usurper – then he had no reason to depart to the East immediately and his journey is well placed in the time.

2 Maia

We don’t know if other maesters hate Marwyn. He is “white crow†but in present situation in Citadel one in his position should be one and there was no motion that Citadel wanted to remove Marwyn’s subject from the list of disciplines. Anyway Marwyn’s fits to his position very well on one side and other archmaeters most probably wouldn’t his prolonged absences on the other. Yet he had to return from time to time.

What is more relevant to our subject – a mere maester too much interested in magic most probably would be send to serve some minor lord in some distant place but archmaester is supposed to study his discipline. So perhaps Marwyn went to his journey soon after he was raised to ring rod and mask.

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The only clue about timing of Marwyn’s return is that Pate thinks about it like he was already present in Citadel by the time but Pate spent in Citadel 5 years.

Pate speaks as if he remembers when Marwyn returned and Vinegar Vaellyn gave Marwyn his nickname, which would put Marwyn's return at less than five years ago.

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The point is that Sarella knows or rather suspects about “three heads†before she became close to Marwyn. Therefore whoever was the source of her suspects – he is not Marwyn. I would be very surprised if she knows anything about the TOJ but she may know something about Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Her knowing the dragon has three heads just requires knowledge of Dany's situation. This could have been acquired from her mother, less likely from her cousin Quentyn, or just from a connection at Oldtown.

The assumption underlying the above is that "the dragon has three heads" line refers to Dany's situation rather than the prophecy. It could refer to the prophecy instead, of course. It's not banned knowledge to my recollection. But that doesn't mean Sarella knows about R+L=J; the link is not necessary.

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Pate speaks as if he remembers when Marwyn returned and Vinegar Vaellyn gave Marwyn his nickname, which would put Marwyn's return at less than five years ago.

Yes, this is exactly what I meant – sorry if it wasn’t clear. Yet this only confirms that Marwyn took his trip after the Usurper War. Why he didn’t took it immediately after the war? One possible reason is that he was unable to do so until he was given the ring rod and the mask of archmaester another – he seems to know what is going on and when. Marwyn told to Sam to forge his chain quickly but he thinks that Sam still have enough time to forge his chain and this is going to take several years. If Marwyn knew that one of the dragon heads is still an infant after the war – he had no reason to hurry and in any case Marwyn completed his journey before the major events have started.

Marwyn is not a man to waste time yet he waits for Sam in the Oldtown to hear all the details before leave to Daenerys. So Marwyn could wait when he knows that he could afford it.

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Well, I still see no reason to tell any secrets to Allyria years later. I mean, it is a dangerous and seemingly obsolete knowledge - why burden a young maiden or a child with it? The case should have been closed for the Daynes, IMHO.

She fits in the same category as the Reed children, who seem to know more than I'd think would be the case. It just depends on what the original keepers of the secrets wished to pass on to their children. However, unlike the Reed children, I think it unlikely we even get to meet Allyria in the next books, so, while I listed her as a possible source, I have to also say I think it's unlikely we get much from her. My take on it, anyway.

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Her knowing the dragon has three heads just requires knowledge of Dany's situation. This could have been acquired from her mother, less likely from her cousin Quentyn, or just from a connection at Oldtown.

The assumption underlying the above is that "the dragon has three heads" line refers to Dany's situation rather than the prophecy. It could refer to the prophecy instead, of course. It's not banned knowledge to my recollection. But that doesn't mean Sarella knows about R+L=J; the link is not necessary.

The question is how could Sarella possibly know about Dany’s situation? She spent her last year in the Citadel posing as Alleras doing studies for her three rings. The rumors about the dragons and the beautiful queen apparently started to flood the Oldtown in much more recent time. And Sarella clearly was very interested in Leo Tyrell story – enough to forget his insults. So it seems that indeed only suspected before that. The question is what was the source of her suspicion?

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She fits in the same category as the Reed children, who seem to know more than I'd think would be the case. It just depends on what the original keepers of the secrets wished to pass on to their children. However, unlike the Reed children, I think it unlikely we even get to meet Allyria in the next books, so, while I listed her as a possible source, I have to also say I think it's unlikely we get much from her. My take on it, anyway.

I doubt that GRRM is done with house Dayne but I also doubt that Allyria will have significant part in the plot even if she will appear in the book.

Anyway – if Elia knew that her husband took the second wife she may told it too her brother Oberyn who would have 15 years to pass the information to Doran. Doran clearly thought that Viserys was the heir so even if he knew about the marriage he never suspected that there was some offspring. Yet Doran seems to trust to Quentyn completely and Quentyn is on his way to Daenerys. So it is possible that he may became another witness thought only fourth handed.

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There is circumstantial evidence to indicate that Ned's promise involved taking Jon as his own son right from the start (this explains Ashara's suicide in one way, much of Ned's reminisences about the 'cost' of his promise, the seemingly honest beliefs held by others about Jon's parentage, etc) so it could be that no one apart from Ned and the Howland Reed knows for sure that Jon is Lyanna's child.

On the other hand, there would be a whole heap of people in the realm who are in the position to make educated guesses. Anyone who knew that Lyanna was pregnant and that Ned turned up with a child after going to find her can make the connection pretty easily. There would be connections through R+L, through Ned turning up with the child and arranging for the wetnurse, through the kingsguard, etc etc. Given the few details we know about such things it's quite possible that someone else learnt the truth in the past, or has a whole lot of information that points to it.

Anyone who lacks that information can still make the connection between Lyanna's abduction and death and Ned's child and could then go about looking for further evidence. It's not exactly a hard theory to come up with. And many many people know the story of Lyanna's abduction from one angle or another.

Really, the question is why hasn't this become a bigger issue in the past? When you consider the timeline it becomes pretty hard to imagine that no one else has pieced it together, but Jon wasn't outed, or killed, or anything.

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The question is how could Sarella possibly know about Dany’s situation? She spent her last year in the Citadel posing as Alleras doing studies for her three rings. The rumors about the dragons and the beautiful queen apparently started to flood the Oldtown in much more recent time. And Sarella clearly was very interested in Leo Tyrell story – enough to forget his insults. So it seems that indeed only suspected before that. The question is what was the source of her suspicion?

Not trying to be rude, but does it matter? I imagine it was someone who came from Qarth, someone connected with her mother. Or some other sailor traveling from Qarth. Perhaps Quentyn, who has had at least some knowledge of Doran's plan since he was at most thirteen and may be of an age with Sarella.

It's not some ginormous coup to know or suspect that Dany has dragons. It only happened at the end of AGOT, became known 1/3rd of the way through ACOK, and is not being kept secret. It hasn't been a secret for 16 years or ever for that matter.

And I fail to see the connection between knowledge of Dany's situation (or the prophecy) and R+L=J.

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Lamaros, I think that there wouldn't be very many people who knew that Lyanna was pregnant when she disappeared. She doesn't seem to have confided that information to her own family and that makes me doubt that she told many people (if any) about it. I wonder if she even knew it herself yet--I think most newly pregnant women wouldn't want to go riding unattended in case they suffered an injury while alone.

As for why this hasn't become a bigger issue, I think most people assume that Lyanna died (which is true). After the war many families had missing members and probably spent their energy searching for news of them. Since Rhaegar was dead, who but the Starks would try to find Lyanna? A bigger question might be "Why didn't the Starks search for Lyanna after the war?" As far as I know, the only Stark who went looking for her was Ned.

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Lamaros, I think that there wouldn't be very many people who knew that Lyanna was pregnant when she disappeared. She doesn't seem to have confided that information to her own family and that makes me doubt that she told many people (if any) about it. I wonder if she even knew it herself yet--I think most newly pregnant women wouldn't want to go riding unattended in case they suffered an injury while alone.

As for why this hasn't become a bigger issue, I think most people assume that Lyanna died (which is true). After the war many families had missing members and probably spent their energy searching for news of them. Since Rhaegar was dead, who but the Starks would try to find Lyanna? A bigger question might be "Why didn't the Starks search for Lyanna after the war?" As far as I know, the only Stark who went looking for her was Ned.

I doubt she was pregnant before she got taken away by Rhaegar. The war is said to have lasted about a year so that gives her plenty of time. Once she was hidden away at the ToJ then its unlikely that anyone besides the people there would know much about her condition.

Maybe Ned was the only Stark to go looking for her because he was the only one still alive at the time? :unsure:

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We don't actually know that Rhaegar was involved in Lyanna's disappearance, although it is widely assumed.

Martin has said that the war began a year or two after Harrenhal and lasted about a year. (This is from the Citadel.)

Benjen was alive when the war ended. After that he took the Black.

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