The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1720700' date='Mar 16 2009, 06.14']What I don't get about the baby Aegon is why is he kept in SUCH secrecy? If Varys saved him by swapping him with another baby before the Sack, then why he and Illyrio would try to help [i]Daenerys [/i]get the Iron Throne? If Aegon was alive, he would have been well ahead of Dany in the line of succession.

My guess for another Targaryen would be one of Bittersteel or Daemon Blackfyre's descendants on Essos.[/quote]
The answer could be that Varys and Illyrio weren't really trying to help either Viserys or Daenerys get the throne. Robert wants them both dead in order to eliminate any rival to his claim to the Iron Throne. Why then would any other claimant, real or fake, publicly put their name forward before they are ready? It would be akin to painting a target on one's own back.

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1721328' date='Mar 16 2009, 15.47']They keep him a secret because they want to keep him a secret... That just blew my mind.[/quote]
While glib cynics like EB may very well scoff, the importance of maintaining secrecy when keep secrets can not be emphasized enough! :smoking:

[Rinso]

[quote name='Szar' post='1721308' date='Mar 16 2009, 16.21']One explanation is that they want to keep him a secret. Daenerys is a public Targaryen.[/quote]
I don't buy it. He's kept in such secrecy that he's become useless. Nobody would believe and rally behind him if he pops out of nowhere 15 years later. If anyone would want to support the Targaryens, they will support Daenerys, especially after she has the most Targaryenish thing in the world - the dragons. What would Aegon have? "Yeah, guys, I... uh... you see, the baby that the Lannisters killed wasn't me... "

[quote name='SFDanny']The answer could be that Varys and Illyrio weren't really trying to help either Viserys or Daenerys get the throne. Robert wants them both dead in order to eliminate any rival to his claim to the Iron Throne. Why then would any other claimant, real or fake, publicly put their name forward before they are ready? It would be akin to painting a target on one's own back[/quote]
It's clear as a day that Varys and Illiryo are trying to help Viserys and Daenerys. They keep their help in secrecy, but they do it. And the names of Viserys and Dany are not put forward or anything, it's well known among the Court that they are alive.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1721871' date='Mar 16 2009, 23.54']I don't buy it. He's kept in such secrecy that he's become useless. Nobody would believe and rally behind him if he pops out of nowhere 15 years later. If anyone would want to support the Targaryens, they will support Daenerys, especially after she has the most Targaryenish thing in the world - the dragons. What would Aegon have? "Yeah, guys, I... uh... you see, the baby that the Lannisters killed wasn't me... "


It's clear as a day that Varys and Illiryo are trying to help Viserys and Daenerys. They keep their help in secrecy, but they do it. And the names of Viserys and Dany are not put forward or anything, it's well known among the Court that they are alive.[/quote]

How does selling the second-in-line to the Targaryen throne to a Dothraki horse-lord for an uncertain promise of some military help in the undefined future really show that Illyrio is working for Viserys and Daenerys to come back into power? How does letting Viserys wander into the Dothraki Sea under the total control of the same Dothraki horse-lord, with only a single knight to protect him show that Illyrio wants to see Viserys sit the Iron Throne? Just how did that part of this wonderful plan work out? How does Varys sending on the order of Robert Baratheon, the Usurper, to assassinate Daenerys show he has the Targaryen interests at heart? I don't think it is clear at all what the motives of the two are, or even if they are truly working for the same cause. All we know is that they meet under the Red Keep. Does Varys lie to Illyrio about what his motives are? I sure as hell don't know, but I don't trust either one of them as committed supporters of either Viserys or Daenerys - at least not before the Dragons are born. After that there are all kinds of folks rushing to Slaver's Bay to proclaim their allegiance to the Mother of Dragons, but how many of them have agendas that are very different than Daenerys'? I don't think you can flatly say Illyrio and Varys don't have an agenda of their own. Daenerys doesn't trust Illyrio; why should we? As far as Daenerys knows Varys is a man who betrayed the Targaryen cause for a pardon and has worked for years to keep Robert on her father's throne. In fact, that is what Varys himself tells us he has done. The only thing we have to the contrary is a meeting beneath the Red Keep in which some cryptic words are exchanged between Illyrio and Varys. Let's not jump to conclusions here.

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1721889' date='Mar 17 2009, 01.19']How does selling the second-in-line to the Targaryen throne to a Dothraki horse-lord for an uncertain promise of some military help in the undefined future really show that Illyrio is working for Viserys and Daenerys to come back into power? How does letting Viserys wander into the Dothraki Sea under the total control of the same Dothraki horse-lord, with only a single knight to protect him show that Illyrio wants to see Viserys sit the Iron Throne? Just how did that part of this wonderful plan work out? How does Varys sending on the order of Robert Baratheon, the Usurper, to assassinate Daenerys show he has the Targaryen interests at heart? I don't think it is clear at all what the motives of the two are, or even if they are truly working for the same cause. All we know is that they meet under the Red Keep. Does Varys lie to Illyrio about what his motives are? I sure as hell don't know, but I don't trust either one of them as committed supporters of either Viserys or Daenerys - at least not before the Dragons are born. After that there are all kinds of folks rushing to Slaver's Bay to proclaim their allegiance to the Mother of Dragons, but how many of them have agendas that are very different than Daenerys'? I don't think you can flatly say Illyrio and Varys don't have an agenda of their own. Daenerys doesn't trust Illyrio; why should we? As far as Daenerys knows Varys is a man who betrayed the Targaryen cause for a pardon and has worked for years to keep Robert on her father's throne. In fact, that is what Varys himself tells us he has done. The only thing we have to the contrary is a meeting beneath the Red Keep in which some cryptic words are exchanged between Illyrio and Varys. Let's not jump to conclusions here.[/quote]
Oh, I don't argue that Varys and Illyrio have their own agenda, but that agenda seem to benefit Viserys and Daenerys. Illyrio gave them rich shelter in his home and and the selling of Dany to the Dothraki was the only way to give them some power. Illyrio had tried to convince Viserys not to go with them to the Dothraki Sea, but he refused to listen. Does Viserys strikes you as the kind of guy who listens to reason, really? What should have Illyrio done? Stop him by force? And who could have guessed that Viserys would prove to be [i]so[/i] utterly moronic? As for the murderer sent by Robert, Varys did sent a warning as well, which was what saved Dany's life. Don't forget that he has to pretend that he's loyal to Robert. He might have betrayed the Targaryens by agreeing to serve Robert, but there is a limit to what he could do. He couldn't stop the Lannisters and the Starks coming to King's Landing, what was left to do? In fact, IIRC, he tried to convince Aerys not to open the gates, but Pycelle was the one who ultimately betrayed him there, not Varys.
I'm not saying that the two of them are innocent little lambs, but if the agenda of Varys and Illyrio benefits anyone, it's the exiled Targaryens.

[SFDanny]

I'd suggest it is just as likely they are out for themselves. In particular, I'm interested in the mummer's dragon and Illyrio's and Varys' plans - if any - involving that yet to be introduced person. Wouldn't it make sense to let both Viserys and Daenerys go with Khal Drogo if they have someone they control that can be placed on the Iron Throne?

[Roza Ahai]

I have a question. Why did Illirio give valuable dragons eggs to Dany. I think Aegon also could sit on them.

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1721913' date='Mar 17 2009, 01.51']I'd suggest it is just as likely they are out for themselves. In particular, I'm interested in the mummer's dragon and Illyrio's and Varys' plans - if any - involving that yet to be introduced person. Wouldn't it make sense to let both Viserys and Daenerys go with Khal Drogo if they have someone they control that can be placed on the Iron Throne?[/quote]
The mummer's dragon, as a choise of words, implies someone who only pretends to be a Targaryen. Aegon doesn't fit in that description.
If Varys and Illyrio wanted to place someone else, aside from Viserys or Dany, on the Iron Throne, they didn't have to do anything for them. There was no need to shelter them in Illyrio's home, to try and give them the armed help of a Dothraki warlord, to save Dany from Robert's catspaw etc. All they had to do with Viserys and Dany would have been, well, nothing.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1721936' date='Mar 17 2009, 01.58']The mummer's dragon, as a choise of words, implies someone who only pretends to be a Targaryen. Aegon doesn't fit in that description.[/quote]
No, but a fake Aegon does. Somewhere in our story we will meet the mummer's dragon, and I'm guessing that he comes in the form of a person pretending to be Aegon. If I'm right, the ties Varys and Illyrio have to that character, if any, will tell us a lot about their motives.

[quote name='Rinso' post='1721936' date='Mar 17 2009, 01.58']If Varys and Illyrio wanted to place someone else, aside from Viserys or Dany, on the Iron Throne, they didn't have to do anything for them. There was no need to shelter them in Illyrio's home, to try and give them the armed help of a Dothraki warlord, to save Dany from Robert's catspaw etc. All they had to do with Viserys and Dany would have been, well, nothing.[/quote]
Because Illyrio and perhaps Varys have other plans does not mean Viserys and Dany have no value. In fact we know Illyrio made a fortune selling her to Khal Drogo. It is wheels within wheels with these two.

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1721942' date='Mar 17 2009, 03.10']No, but a fake Aegon does. Somewhere in our story we will meet the mummer's dragon, and I'm guessing that he comes in the form of a person pretending to be Aegon. If I'm right, the ties Varys and Illyrio have to that character, if any, will tell us a lot about their motives.[/quote]
But still, if they plan to have a fake Aegon pop out of nowhere after 15 years in which everyone thought that he was dead, while Dany becomes more and more well known across the world with her dragons, well, they're pretty stupid. It just won't work. The former rebels won't care and the former loyalists will more likely want to support Dany.

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1721942' date='Mar 17 2009, 03.10']Because Illyrio and perhaps Varys have other plans does not mean Viserys and Dany have no value. In fact we know Illyrio made a fortune selling her to Khal Drogo. It is wheels within wheels with these two.[/quote]
On theory, yes, they might have such back-up plan, but we haven't seen evidence for such thing. If they pull out someone else out of the blue, it would just feel unconvincing and contrived.

[Guest Other-in-law]

It would seem odd for Varys and Illyrio to be behind a completely counter Targaryen claimant to Dany.

The Mummer's dragon could be an opportunistic attempt by a completely different faction to cash in on the resurgent Targaryen fortunes. The golden company seems an obvious candidate, and Aurane Waters and Gerold Dayne aren't entirely out of the question, either. Even if their ages are off by 5 years or so, if [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_Dmitriy_I"]real[/url] [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_Dmitriy_II"]life[/url] [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_Dmitriy_III"]history[/url] is any guide people are willing to at least pretend to believe some pretty half-assed pretenders when it's in their interest to do so.

I shouldn't be surprised if Littlefinger got in on the act, and covertly supported the Mummer's dragon.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1721950' date='Mar 17 2009, 02.22']But still, if they plan to have a fake Aegon pop out of nowhere after 15 years in which everyone thought that he was dead, while Dany becomes more and more well known across the world with her dragons, well, they're pretty stupid. It just won't work. The former rebels won't care and the former loyalists will more likely want to support Dany.[/quote]
I just want to emphasize that my guess is based on the idea they supported the mummer's dragon claim to the throne BEFORE the dragons where born. Everything in Martin's world changes with that event, including Varys and Illyrio's plans. So, yes, it would be stupid of them to continue on with a plan the ignores Daenerys as someone who was effectively lost forever in the Dothraki Sea, but with the advent of the dragons must figure into everyone's plans. It would not be stupid of them to sell her in the first place, not knowing that she could do what no Targaryen since before Aegon III could do - produce live dragons from stone eggs.

[quote name='Rinso' post='1721950' date='Mar 17 2009, 02.22']On theory, yes, they might have such back-up plan, but we haven't seen evidence for such thing. If they pull out someone else out of the blue, it would just feel unconvincing and contrived.[/quote]
We will have to just disagree about what is unconvincing or contrived.

SPOILER: ADWD

If you want to look at the most likely candidate, again let me point to the Tyrion spoiler chapters. In particular look for the person called "young griff," and look to his history. I think you will agree he fits this theory to a "T." He isn't "pulled out of the blue" but rather the ground work for his entrance has been laid with clues sprinkled throughout the series thus far.

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1722080' date='Mar 17 2009, 07.38']I just want to emphasize that my guess is based on the idea they supported the mummer's dragon claim to the throne BEFORE the dragons where born. Everything in Martin's world changes with that event, including Varys and Illyrio's plans. So, yes, it would be stupid of them to continue on with a plan the ignores Daenerys as someone who was effectively lost forever in the Dothraki Sea, but with the advent of the dragons must figure into everyone's plans. It would not be stupid of them to sell her in the first place, not knowing that she could do what no Targaryen since before Aegon III could do - produce live dragons from stone eggs.[/quote]
If she was lost forever in the Dothraki Sea, without further use than to bring some money to Illyrio, than why Varys saved her from Robert's catspaw? Maybe he didn't mean to use [i]her[/i], but her child from Drogo. But anyway, that's still tightly connected to her, not to some other pretender who was never heard of before.

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1722080' date='Mar 17 2009, 07.38']We will have to just disagree about what is unconvincing or contrived.

SPOILER: ADWD

If you want to look at the most likely candidate, again let me point to the Tyrion spoiler chapters. In particular look for the person called "young griff," and look to his history. I think you will agree he fits this theory to a "T." He isn't "pulled out of the blue" but rather the ground work for his entrance has been laid with clues sprinkled throughout the series thus far.

[/quote]

SPOILER: ADWD

There is not much known about Young Griff - he is the son (or maybe "son") of some sellsword knight named Griff (Jon Connington, maybe?) that works for Illyrio and Illyrio had some present for him. That doesn't exclude him or anything, but is hardly an enough amount of information. And he was first mentioned in ADWD, before that there was no freaking clue that such person even exists.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1722110' date='Mar 17 2009, 08.16']If she was lost forever in the Dothraki Sea, without further use than to bring some money to Illyrio, than why Varys saved her from Robert's catspaw? Maybe he didn't mean to use [i]her[/i], but her child from Drogo. But anyway, that's still tightly connected to her, not to some other pretender who was never heard of before.[/quote]
If I remember correctly Varys is ordered by Robert's Hand, Ned Stark, to stop the assassination plot. It is an order Ned gives because Robert has a change of heart on his deathbed. So, what we have is Varys following Robert's order to kill Daenerys and Varys following Robert's order to stop that from happening. Neither of which is very persuasive of the scenario of Varys as the Targaryen champion - especially Daenerys' champion. In point of fact, these actions tend toward the scenario in which Varys is a loyal Baratheon supporter. I repeat, the only real information that shows any inclination towards the Targaryen cause is his conversation beneath the Red Keep. That only really shows us that he meets with Illyrio and that they supposedly have some plots together. How much of that really involves putting Viserys or Daenerys back on the Iron Throne is highly debatable.

With the spoiler information, perhaps we should debate it in the spoiler threads?

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1722228' date='Mar 17 2009, 10.44']If I remember correctly Varys is ordered by Robert's Hand, Ned Stark, to stop the assassination plot. It is an order Ned gives because Robert has a change of heart on his deathbed. So, what we have is Varys following Robert's order to kill Daenerys and Varys following Robert's order to stop that from happening. Neither of which is very persuasive of the scenario of Varys as the Targaryen champion - especially Daenerys' champion. In point of fact, these actions tend toward the scenario in which Varys is a loyal Baratheon supporter. I repeat, the only real information that shows any inclination towards the Targaryen cause is his conversation beneath the Red Keep. That only really shows us that he meets with Illyrio and that they supposedly have some plots together. How much of that really involves putting Viserys or Daenerys back on the Iron Throne is highly debatable.[/quote]
The warning must have been sent before Robert's death, because it reached Ser Jorah too soon after it. But anyway, the word "champion" is not right. Like I said, Varys and Illyrio almost surely have their own agenda, but that agenda seems to be beneficial to Viserys and Dany. What exactly is this agenda, there is no way of telling, but that's not the point anyway.
And given that we went with ADWD spoilers, I'd mention that

SPOILER: ADWD

Illyrio and Varys are supposedly big lifelong friends, not only partners in scheme. Illyrio clearly helps Viserys and Dany (gave them shelter, tried to give them the armed help of the Dothraki, sent Barristan Selmy and later Tyrion to Dany) and it's not a stretch to think that Varys was involved too. After all, he sent Tyrion to Illyrio (and perhaps sent Barristan to Illyrio, as well) and Ser Jorah worked for him as his spy. And in one of Tyrion's spoiler chapters, Illyrio mentions that he does this all for Varys's sake.

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1722228' date='Mar 17 2009, 10.44']With the spoiler information, perhaps we should debate it in the spoiler threads?[/quote]
If you wish, but there really isn't a lot to tell about them for now.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1722267' date='Mar 17 2009, 10.07']The warning must have been sent before Robert's death, because it reached Ser Jorah too soon after it. But anyway, the word "champion" is not right. Like I said, Varys and Illyrio almost surely have their own agenda, but that agenda seems to be beneficial to Viserys and Dany. What exactly is this agenda, there is no way of telling, but that's not the point anyway.[/quote]

Do you have a timeline that verifies this? All we know for sure is that Jorah goes looking for news that has just been delivered, not how long before that the message to kill Daenerys was sent out.

Anyway, I again would urge caution in assuming the reasons for and any depth of support for Viserys and Daenerys from the two men. Too many other very good possibilities exist.

btw, using spoiler text doesn't help very much if you put names outside of it that only appear in future volumes. It would probably be a good thing to edit that bit out.

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1723406' date='Mar 18 2009, 01.58']Do you have a timeline that verifies this? All we know for sure is that Jorah goes looking for news that has just been delivered, not how long before that the message to kill Daenerys was sent out.[/quote]
According to Errant Bard's timeline [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?showtopic=31411&st=0"]here[/url] there was a month between the death of Robert and the attempt of poisoning. I don't know if that's enough time to get from King's Landing to Vaes Dothrak. It's a pretty big distance for a medieval type of travel.
The first message, with Robert's order to kill her, was sent almost two months before the attempt.

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1723406' date='Mar 18 2009, 01.58']Anyway, I again would urge caution in assuming the reasons for and any depth of support for Viserys and Daenerys from the two men. Too many other very good possibilities exist.[/quote]
The reasons for the support are unknown, but the way I see it, it's hard to deny that there is support.

[Ouroboros]

Here's something, its not enough for them to help Dany, they need to control Dany. Baby Aegon might be produced as a likely husband, a dragon's head, and if they control Aegon, her husband, they will have more influence on Dany.

[Rinso]

[quote name='Ouroboros' post='1723426' date='Mar 18 2009, 01.22']Here's something, its not enough for them to help Dany, they need to control Dany. Baby Aegon might be produced as a likely husband, a dragon's head, and if they control Aegon, her husband, they will have more influence on Dany.[/quote]
Uh-huh. But if they had an Aegon the whole time (fake or real, there is no matter) whom they were planning to marry to Dany, why did they sold her to Khal Drogo? Of course, it can be a plan that was hatched after Drogo's death, but still...

[Ouroboros]

I don't really believe the Baby Aegon theory, I was just speculating.