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6 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

How certain are the numbers of the Lannister forces on the Reyne-Tarbeck revolt wiki page? Both sources say "3000 men-at-arms & crossbowmen", not "3000 men-at-arms AND 3000 crossbowmen", for the original host from Casterly Rock. Bowmen of any sort are generally in the minority of infantrymen (& to an even lesser extent among men on horses, which I think Tywin's initial host all may have been, helping to explain the sheer mobility advantages they had against their foes) in Westeros, let alone crossbowmen specifically, particularly for a host that was on the attack & not defending a castle or city. Among ~6500 men total, ~3000 crossbowmen seems quite impractical, tbh:

6 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Assuming that Tywin only left the Rock with ~3500 men, he'd possibly be down to ~3000 after the battle against Walderan & his ~500 knights/cavalry (I wonder how many squires counted among/also with them) & the Storming of Tarbeck Hall. Though of course by the time the Red Lion attacked the Lannister encampment, they'd been augmented by the forces of the Marbrands & Presters, along with "a dozen lesser lords"; to have ~3 times the men he did. If Tywin had ~6500 men when he left the Rock, it completely clashes with the ~6000 he's only meant to have against Roger's ~2000. That is unless the rumours that Tywin had Roger outnumbered 5:1 are actually true (though I'm inclined to believe that was just one among many of the pro-Lannister manipulations of the historical record).

 

 

Yandel states the following:

So Tywin Lannister called the banners. He did not seek his lord father's leave, nor even inform him of his intent, but rode forth himself with five hundred knights and three thousand men-at-arms and crossbowmen behind him.

House Tarbeck was the first to feel Ser Tywin's wroth. The Lannister host descended so quickly that Lord Walderan's vassals and supporters had no time to gather. Foolishly his lordship rode forth to meet Ser Tywin's host with only his household knights beside him. In a short, brutal battle, the Tarbecks were broken and butchered. Lord Walderan Tarbeck and his sons were beheaded, together with his nephews and cousins, his daughters' husbands, and any man who displayed the seven-pointed blue-and-silver star upon his shield or surcoat to boast of Tarbeck blood. And when the Lannister host resumed its march to Tarbeck Hall, the heads of Lord Walderan and his sons went before them, impaled on spears.

At their approach, Lady Ellyn Tarbeck closed her gates and sent forth ravens to Castamere, summoning her brothers. Trusting in her walls, Lady Tarbeck no doubt anticipated a long siege, but siege engines were readied within a day, and those walls proved little help when one great stone flew over them and brought down the castle's aged keep. Lady Ellyn and her son Tion the Red died in the keep's sudden collapse. All resistance at Tarbeck Hall ended soon after, and the gates were thrown open to the Lannister host. Tywin Lannister then ordered Tarbeck Hall put to the torch. The castle burned for a day and a night, until naught remained but a blackened shell. The Red Lion arrived in time to see the flames. Two thousand men rode with him—all he had been able to gather in the short time available.

Tywin Lannister had three times his strength, most accounts agree; some insist the Lannisters outnumbered the Reynes five to one. [...]

The unabridged version of The Westerlands phrases it differently, but in doing so, does not contradict Yandel:

Determined to erase years of humiliation, he did not seek his lord father’s leave, nor even inform him of his intent, but rode forth himself with five hundred knights and three thousand men-at-arms and crossbowmen behind him.  His brothers Kevan and Tygett went with him, one as a knight, one a squire.  Lord Marbrand of Ashmark, Lord Prester of Feastfives, and a dozen lesser lords joined him on the march with their own levies, swelling his numbers.

[...]

The Red Lion arrived in time to see the flames, we are told.  Two thousand men rode with him, all he had been able to gather in the short time available to him.  Only one in ten was a knight.  Given time, Lord Roger could have assembled a much larger host, for House Reyne had many friends in the west, and his own repute as a warrior would surely have drawn many freeriders, hedge knights, and sellswords to his side.  In his haste to respond to his sister’s peril, however, his lordship had set forth with less than a quarter of his full strength, and driven them hard over long leagues, only to arrive at Tarbeck Hall hungry, exhausted, and too late.

Tywin Lannister had three times his strength, most accounts agree; some insist the Lannisters outnumbered the Reynes five to one.  A more prudent commander would surely have fallen back rather than face such odds, but the Red Lion of Castamere had never been prudent.  Hoping that surprise might carry the day, Roger Reyne commanded his trumpets to sound the attack, and charged headlong toward Ser Tywin’s camp.

[...]

Though not a mortal wound, the quarrel went deep enough to draw blood.  The Red Lion rode on, swaying in the saddle, only to fall from his horse less than a half a league away.  He had to be carried back to Castamere.

The Lannister host, swollen to twice its original size by the arrival of the Lords Westerling, Banefort, Plumm, and Stackspear with their levies, arrived at Castamere three days later.  Lord Reyne had sent forth ravens to his own friends, allies, and vassals, but few had turned up; the lesson of Tarbeck Hall had not been lost on them.

If Tywin, with his three thousand crossbowmen and men-at-arms, and five hundred knights, had three times as many men (as most sources agree upon) as Roger Reyne, who had two thousand, Tywin's total men-count should be somewhere near 6000. Which suggests that the crossbowmen and men-at-arms both numbered near 3000, instead of nubering 3000 together, as otherwise, Tywin would be nowhere near 3 times as many men. 

This is what Yandel tells us. According to the unabridged version, several other lords joined Tywin with their own men during the march, but the printed version, which supersedes the unabridged version, does not count those men. Instead, Yandel tells us in the printed vesion that Tywin marched, and that he had about three times as many men as Roger's two thousand.

A solution would be to write that it is uncertain whether these lords who joined him on the march according to a semi-canon source raised the numbers to ~6000, or whether Tywin marched with 6500 from CR, on account of a difference between the canon and the semi-canon version.

 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

1 I'm rather skeptical that New Ghis, even though it would surely flog Astapor at least in prosperity (particularly per citizen), could field an invasion force anywhere near ~36000 being smaller than even Astapor. It just doesn't have the lands to draw from like the other Ghiscari cities do, which we know they all have extensive hinterlands, indeed being the only plausible explanation for how the hell the Yunkish were able to have so many slave soldiers so fast (being from their hinterland estates that Dany neglected). I think Qarth could, certainly with the inclusion of its fleets, as it could draw from its vassal towns/cities & I'd be very surprised if it didn't control a good deal of northern Great Moraq (if not, even more of the island to that vast forest in the south). And it sits on an even more prosperous naval trade route, anyway. We don't even know if New Ghis bothers to exercise great control over Ghaen - it doesn't look particularly fertile - & we know Ghiscar isn't exactly a foodbowl & population centre.

The reading of the Barristan II chapter from TWOW describes the size of a Ghiscari legion as being six thousand strong. Since that is the only description of a size we have, we assume that this is the standard size for the legions.

 

6 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

TL;DR: Original Lannister host = ~3500 men, instead of ~6500? The latter is too high, has far too many crossbowmen, & so ~13000 men at Castamere is also too many - ~7000 there seems more like - all (sort of) imo, of course. Oh, wiki New Ghis is OP as fuck, & Slaver's Bay & surrounds needs far more world-building in future ASoIaF/world books.

What do you mean by the bolded?

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On 2-2-2017 at 0:42 AM, All-Seeing Aye said:

Wanted to see if you have any thoughts on my Moon of the Three Kings post from several weeks ago.  I'm less certain now about the Shepherd really being a 'king', but he and his supporters did rule part of the city after Rhaenyra fled (so possibly in a metaphorical sense?).  Still uncertain about whether the timeline we currently have is accurate/fully fleshed out.

 

I think I missed this post when you originally posted it!

Since we know that there were only two pretender kings,

Madness gripped the city after Rhaenyra fled, and it showed itself in many ways. Strangest of all was the rise of two pretender kings who reigned during the time remembered as the Moon of the Three Kings.

And though the sheperd ruled most of the city, I don't think he would count as a king, though that is questionable. So it is possible that the third king is Aegon II, in the sense that there were three kings in the realm at the time (two of them pretenders). Aegon doesn't need to have been in KL for that time to be called "moon of the three kings".

It could be that the period was longer than a month, and is simply called "moon" because it sounds better, but it might be that it actually lasted ~a month. After all, I would expect the count to start only after Gaemon had been declared king (as Trystane had been declared king first), and that might indeed have been only about a month before Lord Borros took back the city, after which Aegon II returned to the city.

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen I understand all that, I'm including the info from the extended chapter (vassals augmenting the Lannister force with their own levies before the camp battle with the Reynes) & frankly over TWoIaF published if need be. It's not as biased (I know different section, but it's still Pycelle & Yandel), it fills in missing details (because of course Tywin would be so nice to Rohanne & Cerelle), & even with Tywin's rapid momentum campaign; the four Houses mentioned in TWoIaF wouldn't be the only vassals to respond to Tywin's call.

The Westerlings would've been declining before this (indeed, some of the lands & mines they've sold are more likely than not to have been to the Reynes) & were never a top-tier military power (Lannister, Reyne, Crakehall, etc) in the Westerlands anyway. The Stackspears are even more forgettable, not only in the same department. And the Plumms & Baneforts are roughly middle of the pack. There's just no way they are bringing ~7000 men between them, to boost Tywin's then ~6000 to ~13000. Particularly not in 261 & on such a short time-frame. Even in 298 (after almost a decade of summer & peace) with all the extra weeks to gather their men, that would really be a push, if not just outright wrong.

Alone, TWoIaF could possibly make ~6500 original & ~13000 final work, but no way with the extended chapter too. Not to mention everything else I addressed with logistics & that the text points far more to ~3000 combined than ~3000 each. It fits far better for it to be ~3500 initial, boosted to ~6000 by the time of the camp battle with levies from 14 Houses (12 of them unnamed lesser lords - Houses that probably can't even martial 500 men each in the very best of conditions, most like only clocking in ~200 or something on average), & finishing at ~7000 at Castamere.

Tywin had just about the opposite & ideal circumstances in AGoT in contrast (indeed, his hiring of foreign sellsword companies, likely means he was planning to some degree even before Cat took Tyrion) & yet the Lannisters only field what, 35-40k in invasion forces. The Reyne-Tarbeck revolt only drew active strength from ~1/4 of the Westerlands, with some ~2750 men from the same quadrant in opposition. Casterly Rock & Lannisport certainly help a great deal, but ~13000 men at that time & in that time, just doesn't work. Multiply that by three (perhaps sufficient for factoring in Casterly Rock) & you have the host in ASoIaF - ~39000 men in less than a 1/4 (if not 1/6, perhaps even 1/8) of the time. ~7000 expanding to ~21000 instead, 

1 hour ago, direpupy said:

As to your sidenote on New Ghis, a legion is 6000 men as far as I know this is a confirmed number, so 6 legions is 36000 men there is just no two ways about it. There have been discussions about this number before since it does not seem to make sense in light of the size of the island New Ghis is on and most of these ended with the conclusion that they also must control the land around the ruined city of Old Ghis aswell to get these numbers.

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The reading of the Barristan II chapter from TWOW describes the size of a Ghiscari legion as being six thousand strong. Since that is the only description of a size we have, we assume that this is the standard size for the legions. What do you mean by the bolded?

New Ghis fielding a ~36000 men invasion force is far more ridiculous than even the Lannister numbers! What mega fleet abandoned the city for weeks to deliver ~12000 men north of the river? If the Yunkai-led alliance had these numbers from New Ghis, the latter would be in charge, & a storming of Meereen would even be a genuine possibility. ~36000 is more than what the North or Stormlands can marshal & field, from lands possibly as large as half of that of Skagos, because Ghiscar is rekt. That makes sense.

Edited by Lord Corlys Velaryon
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3 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

@Rhaenys_Targaryen I understand all that, I'm including the info from the extended chapter (vassals augmenting the Lannister force with their own levies before the camp battle with the Reynes) & frankly over TWoIaF published if need be. It's not as biased (I know different section, but it's still Pycelle & Yandel), it fills in missing details (because of course Tywin would be so nice to Rohanne & Cerelle), & even with Tywin's rapid momentum campaign; the four Houses mentioned in TWoIaF wouldn't be the only vassals to respond to Tywin's call.

The unabridged Westerlands chapter is just as biased as the printed Westerlands chapter.

I don't think that this is a case of filling in missing details. It is telling a slightly different story. Yandel states that Tywin marched with X men, does not mention or suggest anyone joining Tywin, and then states that Tywin has trice as many men as Roger Reyne, who has two thousand. That's something different than Tywin marches with Y men, people join him, and now he has three times two thousand, and then other people join him, and he has twice his original host (and what is the original host in that scenario? The host that left from CR, or the host that fought the first battle? That's left vague as well)

 

So perhaps some opinions from others? @Nittanian perhaps?

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23 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

@Rhaenys_Targaryen I understand all that, I'm including the info from the extended chapter (vassals augmenting the Lannister force with their own levies before the camp battle with the Reynes) & frankly over TWoIaF published if need be. It's not as biased (I know different section, but it's still Pycelle & Yandel), it fills in missing details (because of course Tywin would be so nice to Rohanne & Cerelle), & even with Tywin's rapid momentum campaign; the four Houses mentioned in TWoIaF wouldn't be the only vassals to respond to Tywin's call.

The Westerlings would've been declining before this (indeed, some of the lands & mines they've sold are more likely than not to have been to the Reynes) & were never a top-tier military power (Lannister, Reyne, Crakehall, etc) in the Westerlands anyway. The Stackspears are even more forgettable, not only in the same department. And the Plumms & Baneforts are roughly middle of the pack. There's just no way they are bringing ~7000 men between them, to boost Tywin's then ~6000 to ~13000. Particularly not in 261 & on such a short time-frame. Even in 298 (after almost a decade of summer & peace) with all the extra weeks to gather their men, that would really be a push, if not just outright wrong.

Alone, TWoIaF could possibly make ~6500 original & ~13000 final work, but no way with the extended chapter too. Not to mention everything else I addressed with logistics & that the text points far more to ~3000 combined than ~3000 each. It fits far better for it to be ~3500 initial, boosted to ~6000 by the time of the camp battle with levies from 14 Houses (12 of them unnamed lesser lords - Houses that probably can't even martial 500 men each in the very best of conditions, most like only clocking in ~200 or something on average), & finishing at ~7000 at Castamere.

Tywin had just about the opposite & ideal circumstances in AGoT in contrast (indeed, his hiring of foreign sellsword companies, likely means he was planning to some degree even before Cat took Tyrion) & yet the Lannisters only field what, 35-40k in invasion forces. The Reyne-Tarbeck revolt only drew active strength from ~1/4 of the Westerlands, with some ~2750 men from the same quadrant in opposition. Casterly Rock & Lannisport certainly help a great deal, but ~13000 men at that time & in that time, just doesn't work. Multiply that by three (perhaps sufficient for factoring in Casterly Rock) & you have the host in ASoIaF - ~39000 men in less than a 1/4 (if not 1/6, perhaps even 1/8) of the time. ~7000 expanding to ~21000 instead, 

New Ghis fielding a ~36000 men invasion force is far more ridiculous than even the Lannister numbers! What mega fleet abandoned the city for weeks to deliver ~12000 men north of the river? If the Yunkai-led alliance had these numbers from New Ghis, the latter would be in charge, & a storming of Meereen would even be a genuine possibility. ~36000 is more than what the North or Stormlands can marshal & field, from lands possibly as large as half of that of Skagos, because Ghiscar is rekt. That makes sense.

I think the problem you are running into is that you think the numbers should make sence when perhaps George never gave it much thought and just put down numbers he thought would be a good fit for the story.

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On 2/4/2017 at 11:22 AM, direpupy said:

I think the problem you are running into is that you think the numbers should make sence when perhaps George never gave it much thought and just put down numbers he thought would be a good fit for the story.

Right, according to SSM:

Quote

Reminded us that the men in Westeros have medieval type education. Not every man can count, not every man can read. Gave the example of different mens viewpoints regarding the same army. The first mans count would be 10,000 men. The second man seeing the same host would say it was 5,000...

This also gives Martin leeway when the numbers don't match up.

I interpret "five hundred knights and three thousand men-at-arms and crossbowmen" to be 3,500, not 6,500. It probably would be better to avoid committing to definite numbers and instead briefly explain the options.

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21 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

When is Tytos Lannister's first mistress mentioned?

Gerion's wet nurse, mentioned in TWOIAF, The Westerlands: House Lannister Under the Dragons

Yet whilst his cubs were fighting on the Stepstones, Tytos Lannister remained at Casterly Rock, in the company of a certain young woman of low birth who had caught his eye whilst serving as a wet nurse to his youngest son.

The return of Lord Tytos's sons from war finally heralded change. Hardened by battle, and all too aware of the low regard in which the other lords of the realm held his father, Ser Tywin Lannister set out at once to restore the pride and power of Casterly Rock. His sire protested but feebly, we are told, then retreated back to the arms of his wet nurse whilst his heir took command.

and 

The resulting crisis drew Lord Tytos away from his wet nurse long enough to overrule his strong-willed heir. His lordship not only commanded that Lord Tarbeck be released, unharmed, but also went so far as to apologize to him and forgive him his debts.

 

and

In 267 AC, Lord Tytos Lannister's heart burst as he was climbing a steep flight of steps to the bedchamber of his mistress (his lordship had finally put aside his wet nurse, only to become besotted with the charms of a candlemaker's daughter).

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen
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  • 1 month later...
2 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Just wondering. What's the source for the "500 other survivors of Robb's army" on the March on Winterfell page? Is it an estimation of Karstarks (only?) among Roose's host at Moat Cailin in Reek II of Dance?

Looks like it was added with this edit...

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5 hours ago, Nittanian said:

Looks like it was added with this edit...

It seems to have originally been added earlier, though by the same user, in this edit. But I see no reference for it. Last year I've researched the army numbers mentioned in text, and while there is a reference that Roose returns north with ~4000 men (most of them Dreadfort men), and Theon later claims that Roose has six thousand men or more, in total (so including the Manderly men etc.), I see no reference for the "500 other survivors of Robb's army"..

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14 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

It seems to have originally been added earlier, though by the same user, in this edit. But I see no reference for it. Last year I've researched the army numbers mentioned in text, and while there is a reference that Roose returns north with ~4000 men (most of them Dreadfort men), and Theon later claims that Roose has six thousand men or more, in total (so including the Manderly men etc.), I see no reference for the "500 other survivors of Robb's army"..

Since Winterfell hasn't come under siege (yet?), it might be good to remove the battlebox altogether until further plot is revealed.

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On 16-3-2017 at 2:15 PM, Nittanian said:

Since Winterfell hasn't come under siege (yet?), it might be good to remove the battlebox altogether until further plot is revealed.

I'm rewriting the page at the moment, and I suggest that the upcoming battle between Stannis's forces and Roose's forces (dubbed the "battle in the ice" by Martin in interviews) be given its own page, since we know that battle is coming. Whatever siege might follow that battle should receive its own page, of course.

But I agree on removing the battlebox.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

I'm preparing a rewrite for the page on the Battle of the Blackwater. Currently, the page states that half of Stannis' army which had been south of the Blackwater (~8,000) switches sides during the battle, and cites ASOS chapter 19 (Tyrion III) as its source, but I cannot find any quote stating this info. Does anyone have any idea where this is stated?

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On 4/15/2017 at 4:36 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I'm preparing a rewrite for the page on the Battle of the Blackwater. Currently, the page states that half of Stannis' army which had been south of the Blackwater (~8,000) switches sides during the battle, and cites ASOS chapter 19 (Tyrion III) as its source, but I cannot find any quote stating this info. Does anyone have any idea where this is stated?

 

The closest I can find is from ASOS Tyrion I:

Quote

"Is it true that Stannis was put to rout by Renly's ghost?"

Bronn smiled thinly. "From the winch towers, all we saw was banners in the mud and men throwing down their spears to run, but there's hundreds in the pot shops and brothels who'll tell you how they saw Lord Renly kill this one or that one. Most of Stannis's host had been Renly's to start, and they went right back over at the sight of him in that shiny green armor."

 

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