Swine flu outbreak in Mexico

[Inigima]

thanks republicans!

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat/430261?rel=hp_picks

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Swine-flu is now confirmed in Spain.

From the link:

A male patient in south-eastern Spain has tested positive for the virus and 17 people are under investigation, the Spanish health ministry has said.

European Union health ministers are to hold an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss the outbreak, which has killed more than 100 people in Mexico.

The EU's Health Commissioner, Androulla Vassiliou, has advised against non-essential travel to any affected areas.

Besides Mexico and Spain, there have also been confirmed cases in the US and Canada. Suspected cases are being investigated in the UK, Brazil, Israel and New Zealand.

This report is saying the virus has killed over 100 in Mexico but NPR, this morning, was saying only 20 deaths. Is the discrepency between overall deaths and deaths confirmed to be due to Swine-flu? I agree until the death toll starts to spread this is nothing to panic over. I am curious about why there are so many deaths in Mexico but not elsewere?

[The Anti-Targ]

Someone always profits no matter what the "disaster" happens to be. :rolleyes:

Flu a windfall for some drugmakers, shares jump

Edit:

OTOH there are also stock market losers

World markets struck by swine flu fears

Seems the speculators are still out there in force.

Oil prices down too apparently

World stocks and oil tumble as flu fears spread

Another Edit

This report is saying the virus has killed over 100 in Mexico but NPR, this morning, was saying only 20 deaths. Is the discrepency between overall deaths and deaths confirmed to be due to Swine-flu? I agree until the death toll starts to spread this is nothing to panic over. I am curious about why there are so many deaths in Mexico but not elsewere?

Interestingly the WHO website is saying that only 18 cases of the H1N1 swine 'flu have been confirmed by lab tests in Mexico. Though obviously many more suspect clinical cases. Conclusion? Claims of 100, 80, or even 20 deaths are premature. Though that is not to say they are wrong. All those deaths could be the result of this particular strain of species hopping virus, or they could be the result of something else entirely, or a mix of both. Without a laboratory diagnosis you can't categorically say anything about these deaths.

Keep an eye on the media by all means, but check media reports against WHO updates, and if you can read Spanish keep an eye on the Mexico Ministry of Health website for updates too. The media might be the first to report stuff on major public health problems, but they often go with unconfirmed information. WHO might be somewhat delayed but they will report on what is established fact, not speculation.

[kungtotte]

Just to put this in perspective, in a normal year thousands of people die from influenza. So far symptoms from non-Mexican clusters have been mild and self-limiting. We don't have enough information yet to gauge how this will progress, but the genie is definitely out of the bottle at this point.

Early reports indicate that the swine-flu is behaving similar to how the Spanish Flu behaved, with cytokine storms and secondary pulmonary problems, and as such it is more dangerous to healthy individuals. The people who die from influenza in any given year are the weak and infirm, people whose immune systems cannot fight off the infection. If it is true that the swine-flu is causing cytokine storms, a much larger segment of the population runs the risk of dying.

This report is saying the virus has killed over 100 in Mexico but NPR, this morning, was saying only 20 deaths. Is the discrepency between overall deaths and deaths confirmed to be due to Swine-flu? I agree until the death toll starts to spread this is nothing to panic over.

You are correct about the discrepancy. When I wrote my previous post there were 86 cases of deaths attributed to influenza-like illnesses and only 20 or so confirmed to have been caused by this particular strain of H1N1, so this is what causes the discrepancy in the reports.

I am curious about why there are so many deaths in Mexico but not elsewere?

~1300 infected in Mexico, ~100 infected in the US, ~50 in the rest of the world combined (Canada, certain parts of Europe, New Zealand). It's not surprising that there are many more deaths in the country with the most infected, and many of the infected in Mexico are living in the slums without access to adequate health care. With little or no access to Tamiflu/Relenza and no decent health care for secondary symptoms like pneumonia I'm not surprised that the biggest concentration of deaths are in Mexico.

[ljkeane]

Early reports indicate that the swine-flu is behaving similar to how the Spanish Flu behaved, with cytokine storms and secondary pulmonary problems, and as such it is more dangerous to healthy individuals. The people who die from influenza in any given year are the weak and infirm, people whose immune systems cannot fight off the infection. If it is true that the swine-flu is causing cytokine storms, a much larger segment of the population runs the risk of dying.

What's a cytokine storm?.

I plan on preparing myself for the coming apocalypse, I've already stockpiled 3 cans of soup ;)

[kungtotte]

When a virus attacks your body, your immune system starts attacking the virus. Cytokines, signal molecules, are necessary for this process. Only sometimes your body goes nuts and starts spamming cytokines, which means that your immune system goes berzerk and it will damage healthy cells in your body. This is why it's more dangerous for healthy individuals to contract a virus known to cause cytokine storms, because healthy = strong immune system = stronger immune system response to the cytokine storm.

[Nous]

BBC has some 'from the trenches' reader reports.

[LCOTNW]

When a virus attacks your body, your immune system starts attacking the virus. Cytokines, signal molecules, are necessary for this process. Only sometimes your body goes nuts and starts spamming cytokines, which means that your immune system goes berzerk and it will damage healthy cells in your body. This is why it's more dangerous for healthy individuals to contract a virus known to cause cytokine storms, because healthy = strong immune system = stronger immune system response to the cytokine storm.

gah! should I continue taking vitamin C or not?

f*cking science.

[Meili]

From my observations it seems each time one of these little things pops up (as in almost no fatalities) the media are the ones exploiting it. You should see Fox with its pop up red headline including doom and gloom red flashing music intro "Swine flu rages over world!" The Avian flu gave them headline for months. I really like the 'how to be aware and avoid it' advice. "Wash hands". "Take medicine if you have the flu". etc....

The regular flu along with pnemonia kills what, 60,000 a year? When it actually becomes dangerous, let me know. Until then let the CDC and WHO do their jobs and the hysteria to a minimium ok Fox news and all other outlets dying for ratings. I'll stick this entire story in the box with Ebola and the Avian flu until it has become a realistic threat. Until then, business as usual.

[jack-be-lucky]

When a virus attacks your body, your immune system starts attacking the virus. Cytokines, signal molecules, are necessary for this process. Only sometimes your body goes nuts and starts spamming cytokines, which means that your immune system goes berzerk and it will damage healthy cells in your body. This is why it's more dangerous for healthy individuals to contract a virus known to cause cytokine storms, because healthy = strong immune system = stronger immune system response to the cytokine storm.

Would you happen to know if this is the process that causes Henoch-Schonlein Purpura?

[kungtotte]

I'm not a doctor :s

@Meili: I'd stick a pin in swine-flu for now. It is transmitted human-to-human which means the infection vector is exponentially larger than that of avian flu which was only ever transmitted animal-to-human. Don't let the fearmongering media desensitize you to the point where you get caught unawares by stuff that's actually scary.

[Padraig]

Don't let the fearmongering media desensitize you to the point where you get caught unawares by stuff that's actually scary.

Yes, we just got to find something actually scary. :)

[Hereward]

It's at times like this that I always wonder what the effect of having 24 hour news channels would have had on previous great crises. In WWII I imagine that the BBC would have had outside broadcasts from a variety of beaches, probably captioned INVASION WATCH!, with correspondents looking over their shoulders and saying things like "the German hordes are expected any minute, but in the meantime, here's a dramatic reconstruction of what it will be like to have your relatives hauled from their beds by the Gestapo. Sport at 11."

[S John]

Well, looks like hard-working American flu's have been replaced by Mexican immigrants. Saw that coming.

[Brude]

They say that the black plague was great for increasing the demand for labor and dramatically helped the economy after 1/3 of the population of Europe was killed off. Maybe this is the way out of the economic downturn?

Always look on the bright side of life...

::whistles:: ::coughs::

The story about stripping funding for the CDC from the stimulus package is sad and even sadder because it came from Susan Collins - isn't she supposed to be one of the "good" Republicans (okay, I mean moderate)? Coming from Rove, I expect it, but not from her.

My main fear about this comes from the fact that I have asthma, mild asthma, but asthma nonetheless. Were I to get the flu, I'd suffer worse than others probably. I didn't always have asthma but got it from the air quality of Los Angeles when I lived there...it's just occurring to me maybe that has something to do with the high death rate in Mexico City. The air quality there is the worst in the world. Maybe those who are dying already had respiratory problems to begin with.

[Xray the Enforcer]

I didn't always have asthma but got it from the air quality of Los Angeles when I lived there...it's just occurring to me maybe that has something to do with the high death rate in Mexico City. The air quality there is the worst in the world. Maybe those who are dying already had respiratory problems to begin with.

Exactly. Aemon Stark alluded to this in his earlier post -- it is not clear if some of the deaths from this virus had co-morbidity factors (being immunocompromised, TB, etc), and asthma is definitely one of the factors that make one more susceptible. I have no idea what the asthma rates are in Mexico City, but it's a plausible idea. (I also have environmentally triggered asthma, thanks to the Apartment of Doom, so I'm also on the hitlist, as it were.)

[Seventh Pup]

This is scary, and sad. While I don't think it is likely to affect me, or mine (live very far away from the boarder, no cases reported in my area) I still can't help but feel for the victims. Yes people die every day of other illnesses, but that doesn't make these peoples death any less sad.

Also yes the flu is scary. While it is unlikely that we would have the same death rates as the Spanish Flu* I think anyone who read about that outbreak can't help but feel a bit of a quickening of the pulse when you read about this. Another thing is that in the unlikely event that the flu does make it to my area I also have asthma (thank you mold infestation) and that would put me at a sever disadvantage. In all I think I'm going to be extra vigilant about washing my hands.

*yes I know the that strain did not start off in Spain.

[Balefont]

Well, looks like hard-working American flu's have been replaced by Mexican immigrants. Saw that coming.

:lol: Sorry but that's kinda funny.

[Brude]

I'm wondering if/when some anti-immigration/illegal immigration people are going to start using this as "further proof" that we shouldn't be letting Mexicans into the country " 'cause they're dirty" or whatever. Lou Dobbs is probably a little too smart to go there, but I wouldn't put it past some others.

I had this lunatic boss many years ago and when the first Asian flu scare hit back in the late 90's he got it into his head one day to ask our Chinese UPS man what he knew about it. Never mind that his name was Winston and judging by his accent was probably born and raised in Queens, or some such. Never mind that being Chinese of course gave the guy no secret, inside information about the epidemiology of that particular disease just because both of them were "Asian." But the sad fact is that's how some peoples' minds work.

[Crazydog7]

The great influenza is fun to read about but I don't want to there.