Will the series be a constant fight for ratings?

[Andhaira]

First, like all here I really hope the series does well. I want to see all 7 seasons in all their glory.

However looking at recent HBO series such as Rome and Deadwood, both of whom would IMO attract larger audiances (one is about Rome and ceaser, the other is a western with a lot of cussing) and looking at the fact they were cut early it makes me worry about ASOIAF's fate.

From what I gather HBO will buy greenlight this from season to season, and if ratings don't hit a certain standard they will obviously have to cut the show. The costs involved in this type of show will also be high, like rome. (armor, weapons horses, CGI, etc)

I hate to sound pessmistic but it seems very hard to me that all factors will align, that not only will the show be a great and faithful adaptation, but will also draw ratings. I know the novels are bloody fantastic, but to hook the average viewer in and drawn them in...well its very hit and miss. Look how many great series have been cancelled on tv, or had their runs shortened.

Can anyone reassure me, or at least give me some hope? It would totally suck to have the series run for say a season or two then be cut short.

[Halfhand]

With any TV series there is the chance it could have low viewership and be canceled. The good thing is HBO is a little different than most networks and doesn't rely on huge ratings to keep shows around. The Wire got only average ratings for it's entire 5 year run, yet David Simon was still allowed to finish his story to completion. The Wire also did pretty well in DVD sales I believe, which may have contributed to it's longevity. So ratings aren't as crucial to the show's success as on other networks. Critical acclaim, plus decent ratings and solid DVD sales should be enough to keep the show around for a while.

HBO has already stated that canceling Rome was a mistake as the ratings and DVD sales really picked up for it's second season. Hopefully HBO looks at Thrones as a way to redeem itself and is patient and allows it to find it's audience, whether through ratings or DVD.

[Silverstar]

Can't reassure you that much, but bear in mind that the books are massive page-turners. If you get into the books, you need to keep reading to find out what happens. Similarly, I'd expect that if the series is as good as we hope, anyone who gets into watching it will be a regular viewer, not wanting to miss a show because they'll miss major plot points.

It's not the kind of show which will have nice little "tied up at the end of every episode" plotlines. It's also not a show like Lost where the writers have no idea what the plotline actually is and therefore it can start to meander. We have four seasons of plot already on paper, and a fifth which will be done (hopefully), by the time the pilot is shown.

I think there is more of an appetite for fantasy now than there has been in the past, and there isn't that much around. So I'd expect anyone with an interest in fantasy at all to take a look, unless they've already read ASOIAF and hated it.

So if it's good, I expect it to have solid, regular viewing numbers.

[Andhaira]

The shows episodic nature can be a plus and a minus:

Some people are turned off by the fact they can't miss a single episode as they don't want to have that kind of commitment. However such people may very well buy the show on dvd where they can watch all episodes at leisure. (doesn't help ratings though)

OTOH some people are turned on by tight pacing and interlinked plots and episodes: They like having a large payoff when they have devoted time to watching every episode.

If done right, if relationships are stressed in this show it could even attract the viewership of shows like desperate housewives.

[Kalbear]

HBO rarely cares about ratings - because people can watch it on demand, watch it throughout the week, etc. Their best series and the ones they like the most have the following going for them:

rewatchable

high critical acclaim

desire for people to see it early to know what happens

high desire for DVD set

If people are talking about how awesome it is, it'll make more people buy HBO - and that's really where they get their primary revenue. But that doesn't happen with ratings necessarily. Rome, for instance, had really awesome ratings early on. Sopranos had crap ratings early on. But the buzz on Sopranos was awesome.

[K26dp]

Yep, since HBO doesn't have to sell advertising time based on viewership, they have a whole different decision matrix on what airs, what doesn't, and what gets cancelled.

[Ser Greguh]

As has already been stated, the HBO revenue model is much different from that of a traditional broadcast network. Shifting the dollars away from advertising to subscriptions changes the dynamic in several key areas. For one, I'm relatively sure it's why HBO generally puts their best new content up on Sunday nights. Sunday nights make for the lowest cost advertisements - heading into the week, people are less likely to buy things - and so they're up against the weakest network competition. How many individual people watch any one individual episode does not matter nearly so much, and as a result HBO can afford to focus more on long-term viewership, loyalty to the show, and the other higher-level ways in which a show can affect their subscription revenue.

On a standard network, even if you get picked up, if your ratings suck, you can and will be yanked off the air very rapidly. HBO doesn't generally do that. Their tendency is to let a season go forward, and re-evaluate at the end of it if they got what they expected, in terms of viewers, subscribers, awards, eventual dvd sales, and overall show quality.

Rome was something of a special case. The show was so retardedly expensive that it was almost impossible to sustain in any reasonable fashion. It got a lot of viewers and did very well w.r.t. awards and eventual dvd sales, but my guess is that it got canceled largely because HBO didn't quite get what they felt they deserved for that investment, which would have been the insane lightning-in-a-bottle phenomenon of The Sopranos. Even so, its creators were treated with respect; rather than yanking the show after its second season, leaving the story unfinished, they were told what was up prior to 2nd season's creation, and were able to tell 2 seasons' worth of story in the unbridled (though admittedly, at times, rushed) can of awesome that was Rome Season 2.

Other shows, such as Deadwood and Carnivale, have been given multiple seasons despite their failure to draw in much of a viewership; while many people are more than a little raw about how HBO treated those shows, the fact of the matter is that for their budget and with their minuscule ratings, on any other network either show would have been given 2-3 episodes, not 2-3 seasons. John from Cincinatti received a mercy stroke after 1 season of zero viewership and considerably universal critical disdain.

Lower budget shows such as The Wire, Six Feet Under, and Oz were afforded multiple seasons despite uneven viewership and general Emmy ambivalence. Critical acclaim means much more at HBO than at any other network, whose sole concern is the simple mathematics of advertising dollars.

So, in short, no, it's unlikely that (if the show even gets picked up, which, let's not forget, is not a given) the series would be characterized as a week-to-week struggle for Nielsen ratings. But don't confuse that with a complete ambivalence as to whether or not it's picking up a viewership at all.

[chessRuffian]

...

great post

[quigon87]

Once word of the Dothroki wedding scene breaks in the public, you watch how fast your average viewers flock to watch the show... theres a reason true blood was as popular as it was last season, and it aint because vampires "coming out of the coffin" was a brilliantly new concept...

[Cajunfit]

I am not a subscriber to HBO, but I will be once the show airs. Even though I know I could download the episodes later for free, I am going to reward them with their commitment to great fiction. 8 )

Two things that should help the success are:

1. Shock value of how many people GRRM kills off. It was probably the most sobering thing from my first reading, and yet it hooked me.

2. Character depth. If they pull this off, you will hear people discussing how complex the characters are, which is a good sign of long-term interest. People will want to follow these plotlines, and he keeps you continuously reeled-in.

As someone mentioned earlier, these novels are certainly page turners. I listened to the audiobooks, and I can remember sitting in my driveway after my trips home from work...just waiting to find an appropriate spot to press "pause".

I know many of you loathe Goodkind's "Sword of Truth", but I read those books before I found GRRM. I thought his first 4-5 books were very good, before he got way too heavy with the philosophy. I was actually quite interested when I got the news about "The Seeker" tv show. What a complete waste of airtime! I DVR'd the first few, but could NOT watch an entire episode.

I feel much better about Thrones, and hope that it is close to what most of us would hope for.

Cajunfit

[Bubba]

Once word of the Dothroki wedding scene breaks in the public, you watch how fast your average viewers flock to watch the show... theres a reason true blood was as popular as it was last season, and it aint because vampires "coming out of the coffin" was a brilliantly new concept...

Bingo. Sex sells.