Maltaran Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 So .... how's the weather looking in London today? Y'know, just curious.Looking good, with rain forecast after 19:00.Anyway, should Strauss have enforced the follow-on? Given how long it took to get the last two wickets, and the run rate the England openers have got (57 from 13 overs, with Mitchell Johnson conceding 17 from 3), I think he made the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Strauss should've enforced it. He's such a pussy. A total conservative with his captaincy. I doubt he'll declare unless OZ are chasing 600+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJDonegal Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 No, he definitlely made the right call to not enforce the follow on. The pitch looks good, the weather looks good, and Australia only have 3 fit bowlers (even if they are giving Hauritz the ball). Johnson is bowling pies, and England will hopefully bat Hauritz off the pitch so they can concentrate on tiring the three seamers and getting easy runs from the part timers.So having made the call to not enforce the follow on, it's now a case of when to call the declaration (assuming they don't suffer a batting collapse). I'd like to see Strauss make it at lunch, or shortly thereafter, but assuming he is his usual conservative self, I don't think he'll make it until tea, or shortly thereafter. Then again, if they keep going at the pace they are, they could round up a nice lead of 400 by lunch tomorrow, wallop a few overs for a lead of 450 and take the game to the Aussies.Strauss will probably want a 550 lead, which means tea.ETA: Having continued to read the Guardian coverage, it seems my maths is all wrong. They estimate an overnight lead of 578 if England bat the remaining 69 overs (from lunch) at 4.5 an over. Given they had 57 from the first 13, which is 4.3 an over, it's not a ridiculous suggestion. I guess.Although there is now the small matter of a wicket down.ETA2: I've realised where my maths was wrong. I kept counting the lead as being 10, not 210. That's possibly worse than just getting my maths wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Relying on the English weather is always a bad idea. Should've enforced the follow on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Probably so, but if they can bat till lunch tomorrow, the lead will be up around 450-500, and they'll have 5 sessions to bowl the Aussies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Well, Prior and Collingwood have made a mockery of my prediction - the lead's past 500 already. New prediction - an overnight declaration from Strauss, and two whole days in which to get the Aussies out (which may be needed, given they'll likely be rain-affected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daeric Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 I've got a feeling that they will continue until either Flintoffs out or he gets a bigish score with Flintoff under strict instructions to do it fast.I certainly don't see England batting past lunch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJDonegal Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 If they did it would be an abomination. What's the lead now, 530 odd? Batting aggressivley towards lunch (very possible with Flintoff, Broad and Swann all capable of hitting a ball) could add over 100 to the score, and a lead of 650 is unnecessarily mammoth.I'd like them to declare overnight, or failing that declare after about 15 overs tomorrow. Of course, I'm off on holiday now for a couple of weeks and who knows when I'll manage to hear about things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljkeane Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 I'd like them to declare overnight, or failing that declare after about 15 overs tomorrow.I think there is a good chance that they might bat one over to put the Australian openers off and then declare, as Atherton suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamjm Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 If they did it would be an abomination. What's the lead now, 530 odd? Batting aggressivley towards lunch (very possible with Flintoff, Broad and Swann all capable of hitting a ball) could add over 100 to the score, and a lead of 650 is unnecessarily mammoth.I agree, while a lead of 520 means that it isn't entirely impossible that Australia could chase down the target given two days without weather interruptions on what is mostly a good batting pitch, I think declaring is worth that very small risk since it significantly increases England's chances of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoë Sumra Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 Well, it's raining at Lords now and forecast to be showery all day. And England declared about 10 minutes ago. Two rain-affected days in which either England need 10 wickets or Australia need 522 runs; any guesses? NB It is not currently forecast to rain at all tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 Well, it's raining at Lords now and forecast to be showery all day. And England declared about 10 minutes ago. Two rain-affected days in which either England need 10 wickets or Australia need 522 runs; any guesses? NB It is not currently forecast to rain at all tomorrow.Hoping for an England win but wouldn't be surprised to see Australia scrape a draw if they only need to bat for, say, 4 and a half sessions in total. An Australian win should be out of the question - Katich and Hussey will slow the scoring rate to a snail's pace if either of them get in. Having said that, Hughes and Haddin only know one way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoë Sumra Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 418 for 7 is apparently the highest ever run-chase at Lords. There is play, which is a relief - the forecast had suggested it would rain till early afternoon.ETA: Well, an early dismissal for Katich helps. :) 17-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 2 down.We'll miss Flintoff's bowling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 2 down.And according to TV replays, neither of them were out - Katich's dismissal should have been called a no-ball, and with Hughes the catch apparently didn't carry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 Its the batsman's fault ultimately for edging the ball and getting dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daeric Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 And Ponting is gone as well, the big big wicket that England needed to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 Its the batsman's fault ultimately for edging the ball and getting dominated.Nevertheless, 3 of the 4 dismissals so far would have been reversed if television replays were introduced. I believe that they are set to be permanently implemented in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hereward Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 Logically, 5 down with 200 still needed shouldn't be a problem. But this is England we're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delete this account pls Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 If the rain holds off, a draw is probably out of the question. If Australia bat all day, they'll probably win. I'm not very hopeful though.Did anything happen with Flintoff? When I went to bed he was wrapping up his spell, and he looked decidedly uncomfortable, limping more with each ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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