Mafia Game 65.5: Twonnocent

[Magic Mirror]

So you think that our team had the day 1 advantage of having 5 players against 3 & 2? That doesn't seem right.

Other than that, it's kind of possible, but I'd expect that there would still be 4/4/2 with the FM on our team being part of the circle.

I expect this too, but I can't make any of it work out.

I tried all the possible "piper lied" combos. None of it works. This is the only thing that does. No one had Spicer and no one has Waterman.

[House Clegane]

I really don't think Waterman is the other FM based on Spicer pushing him on day 1. I guess that puts him in my bottom tier.

[House Mooton]

I don't suppose there's any chance either of you planted healer codes, is there? Is there? No, of course. You hate codes.

The detail is the proof. If Shawney acknowledges that he can only heal on even nights that should be proof enough for the rest of you, no?

I agree. If Shawney agrees with this, that almost guarantees either that Wagstaff is innocent or that one of them is the other's evil symp. If Shawney disagrees, then we lynch Wagstaff. Obviously, if Wagstaff's CF shows up as innocent, Shawney will be in deep trouble.

Wagstaff: can you heal yourself?

Also, I know it's silly to talk about symmetry in this game, but there's one thing that makes both of their claims more believable. Healer Wagstaff is symping Dalt, his team leader. Healer Shawney is symping Vikary, his team leader. Wagstaff's reasons for keeping his master a secret sound plausible. Sorry, Shawney, but you're acting ridiculously suspicious. Still, I'll look at other players for a bit.

There's something about the night kill that makes me think Wagstaff wasn't behind it, but Dalt was such a threat that I suppose anyone might have got rid of him.

I have a new theory. One of the Team Dalt (I'm deliberately avoiding using the faction names) players is hiding among the Vikarys. They knew they were at a disadvantage because of the Thorne kill and thought it was safer just to slip into the partner chain.

If Piper was lying about Dalt, I will kill him when I get to Spoiler Heaven.

Either way, I'm just going to reread Spicer's interactions with other players and see if I can find a likely partner.

[House Clegane]

And now I'm coming back around to Melcolm and Doggett.

I was bothered by the fact that they were the two who immediately voted Wag when the day started without seeming to want to wait until Wag was able to clarify his statement or to have more discussion.

I guess that moves my tiers a bit -

Melcolm, Doggett

Vikary, Wagstaff

Waterman, Jordayne

[House Mooton]

Goddamnit. Stop posting two pages while I'm in the middle of writing one post!

Shawney's analysis is making him look somewhat better to me. I'm convinced in Vikary's innocence--and not just for balance reasons. He was one of the main people pushing for Spicer's lynch yesterday.

Dogget has come across as very genuine (aside from that one wishy-washy RP vote :P). So I'm reluctant to vote him, also.

I'm going to reread Spicer, Melcolm, and Waterman.

[House Clegane]

On a serious note, Waterman for trying to blend in with the whole finder thing. Was it really neccessary to make the 4th or 5th claim to finder?

I'll be up before the deadline. I'm going to bed now. I still see no reason to move my vote. Waterman came back, wrote some rhetorical questions, then went away again. It doesn't inspire confidence.

He placed the second vote on Waterman, then the second post was when there were three votes on him and Thorne hadn't come up as a possible candidate. Waterman is waaay down on my list.

[House Upcliff]

I am in your top tier Shawney because I didn't properly symp Doggett. I have explained that already, so either you believe me or you don't I can't do anything about that.

I'm wondering if there is any other reason you suspect me?

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

..

[House Clegane]

Jordayne - good point about Vikary. He placed a vote on him day one, then had time to reconsider it, but he left it on when he went to sleep. That and the vote on day 2 makes him a very unlikely partner.

Melcolm - you're still in my top because of attrition. I find a lot of people less suspicious than you.

ETA: and you and Doggett were quick to jump on the Wag lynch early today.

[House Clegane]

Actually, I feel good enough about my analysis to vote Melcolm. Another reason why I don't trust him is that he is around, but not attempting to work things through.

[House Upcliff]

Jordayne - good point about Vikary. He placed a vote on him day one, then had time to reconsider it, but he left it on when he went to sleep. That and the vote on day 2 makes him a very unlikely partner.

Melcolm - you're still in my top because of attrition. I find a lot of people less suspicious than you.

ETA: and you and Doggett were quick to jump on the Wag lynch early today.

Fair enough, I guess. Though it did get Wag to talk. Admittedly that wasn't my reason for voting him in the first place, it was a nice result. And I did remove my vote immediately upon his reveal.

[House Upcliff]

So I'll act like the proper symp and vote for Waterman. No one has his name, so I can't see how he was a part of Dalt's team. Yes the balance was wonky, but they did have a healer among 3 people, instead of a group of 5 like we do on Vikary's team. And since both of the players knew who the leader was, they were both symping him, thus both protecting him. I don't know if it balances out completely, but if you throw in the fact that the lynches and nightkills only had a 1 in 3 shot of hitting one of Dalt's team rather than a 1 in 5 like our team, it seems to even out to me.

[House Clegane]

You seriously think that Spicer and Waterman were FM partners based on Spicer's day 1 play? You can't come up with any better options?

[House Upcliff]

I honestly do not know what he was doing. It could be distancing -- dangerous distancing yes, since a third vote got put on and he didn't pull his vote off. Perhaps he was being risky because in other games we've had lately obvious distancing has gotten FM caught. He pulled out the same case on day 2. That was kind of pointless really, in my opinon, as in the end it didn't garner enough support lynch Waterman the first day. That really looks like distancing.

But in the end, I keep coming back to the fact that everybody has someone's name except Spicer and Waterman. For me that overpowers risky day one moves.

eta: a "t" in "it"

[House Clegane]

The more I read, the more I get an uneasy gut feeling about Doggett and I don't know why. Usually I can pinpoint it to some degree.

Mainly I think it would have been very easy for him to slip into the 'wink, wink, nod, nod' that was happening when Dalt and I had our convo about names. If you take the premise that the other FM has to be on my unbroken team of 5, it makes sense that the FM was given a name as cover. I still have no idea what the hell was happening on team Spicer with the names and all. The only risk Doggett took was in saying he had no other info when Dalt was fishing. It wasn't a huge risk, and he mentioned 'well, unless you mean flavor text' and that little bit seemed out of place when he said it.

I also don't like that he came up with Waterman as his best guess. It seems like he put a lot of thought into it, but he's ignoring major parts of game play - interactions and such and focusing on the confusing set-up. He also mentioned he thought his teammate might be a lover, and I'm not sure why but that rang strange in my ears too*. I know not everyone thinks along the same lines, but I know we've had inno/FM lover pairs in the past and wondered if that was sitting subconsciously in the back of his mind.

I'd love to hear some thoughts from others. Today I think the only ones I would vote for would be Melcolm or Doggett.

ETA: *crap - it was Jordayne that said the bit about flavor text. Gah! I don't know why my gut is bothered, but it is. I guess I am staying on Melcolm for now though.

[House Payne]

I can heal on even nights (which is why I don't expect to use it again) and Wag should be able to confirm that we can heal ourselves. The other detail is that I cannot heal the same person more than once in the game.

This is correct. Of course, since the player I healed on day one is now dead, I can heal anyone I want today, including myself. This should give the FM a pretty head-ache.

I'm a bit tired, and I'm going to bed now. I'll be back aprox. 4 hours before the day ends. I'd rather vote for Melcolm than for Waterman. I think Waterman is a probable modkill if we leave him to his own resources, actually. I'm slightly less suspicious of Doggett, though his vote on me today looked pretty scummy.

[Magic Mirror]

I'm slightly less suspicious of Doggett, though his vote on me today looked pretty scummy.

It was a lot less scummy than the way you were acting (duplicate name and not telling who). :P anyway, I believe you now.

I just had an idea about balance too. 10/3. The mods hinted at his. The teams should not be 5/3/2, but more like 3/3/4. 2fm and symp?/3innos and 4 innos.

That means people in my ring are lying.

Team Dalt was Dalt, Wags and Thorne; Team Vicky is Vicky, me...I'd bet Jordayne is innocent. We have one more person, but I am not sure who it is.

Team killers are Spicer....

who's left? Mel and my own dear Shawney? anyone else?

edit: forgot Waterman and changed Mexal to Spicer :dunce: I need some notes

[House Clegane]

Do you think that the healers are more or less likely to be on team innocent? I'd bet more likely, so that leaves Melcolm out again (and you, from my perspective) but I agree that Jordayne looks innocent.

Not saying that I agree with that breakdown because I have a fundamental problem with the two innocent teams starting off unevenly. Doesn't mean that can't be right, just that I am instinctively drawn towards the 4/4/2 set up.

[Magic Mirror]

Do you think that the healers are more or less likely to be on team innocent? I'd bet more likely, so that leaves Melcolm out again (and you, from my perspective) but I agree that Jordayne looks innocent.

Not saying that I agree with that breakdown because I have a fundamental problem with the two innocent teams starting off unevenly. Doesn't mean that can't be right, just that I am instinctively drawn towards the 4/4/2 set up.

Healers are innocent of course. Yeah, I know that means you are innocent. But I wanted a few minutes of OMGUS :P

[House Mooton]

*crap - it was Jordayne that said the bit about flavor text. Gah! I don't know why my gut is bothered, but it is. I guess I am staying on Melcolm for now though.

Is this what you're talking about?

Sorry. Just my role, faction, and name team member. Unless you're talking about flavour text, of course, which is against the rules to reveal.

Just to clarify what I meant by this: Dalt asked everyone if they were told something other than their role, faction, and the name of a teammate in their PM. So I said no, nothing other than a bit of flavour text about the setting.

I'll admit I'm worried that I've turned a blind eye to Doggett all game. It did worry me when he was the first person to point out that FM could have infiltrated the innocent teams. (But what would have been the point? Protecting Thorne?) Then again, I suggested the possibility that FM know that innocents have partners before him, so I can't talk.

Doggett, your 3/3/4 set-up terrifies me.

At this point, Melcolm is my main suspect. I'm going to write up a case on him in a bit. Just be warned that "in a bit" by my standards could mean several hours.