Zoë Sumra Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 New thread, same old. :)The three wickets Australia got still maintains a glimmer of hope for a miracle, but I don't think it'll be coming. Not with England's extremely long lineup. And all Flintoff has to do is come in and bash a quick 30 or 40 and the target will become something unattainable. On this pitch, you get the feeling any fourth-innings target of 200 will be difficult to get and 250 would be a strong total. England are well on course to get more than that, even if they collapse in a big heap. Australia aren't going to chase down anything over 300.Ah, but how much is really enough? The wicket's deteriorating, sure, but given that Australia rarely bat more than one utterly crap innings in a match (and England rarely bowl more than one really good innings), we can't rely on a supremely low fourth-innings score.Weather forecast today and tomorrow is sublime; weather forecast on Monday is possible rain. The question seems to be if Australia can hang on till a shortened day 5 for a draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Ah, but how much is really enough? The wicket's deteriorating, sure, but given that Australia rarely bat more than one utterly crap innings in a match (and England rarely bowl more than one really good innings), we can't rely on a supremely low fourth-innings score.Agreed. I would be very surprised to see Ponting, Clarke, North and Haddin to fail again in the second innings. England need to make sure that they get the lead over 350 so that they can be comfortable in Australia's second innings. NZ disgraced themselves in that first test match. Not really sure what they can do to improve their competitiveness in this series. Sri Lanka are just far too strong :(. ETA: I just read that 13 of the 15 players in the NZ squad were affected by a bad stomach bug/virus, so I suppose that excuses them...to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 I would have thought that anything over 300 would by pretty difficult to get in an Oval fourth innings, which means only another 70 or so required from England.Was anyone else amused by the sight of North and Katich doing all the bowling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 I would have thought that anything over 300 would by pretty difficult to get in an Oval fourth innings, which means only another 70 or so required from England.Average score in the fourth innings at the Oval is 270, so, yeah, 300 would be a challenge. But not an insurmountable one IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Ideally, england will want to bat for the whole of today (i doubt they will, but they will make an attempt). Strauss would never declare in this sort of situation, he's conservative. I'm predicting Australia to be chasing around 350. And thats not impossible IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoë Sumra Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 I think Sky TV just said that the highest fourth innings run-chase at the Oval was 269 for 9...? Or did you mean all first-class games as opposed to just Test?Anyway - given that the pitch is a cratered, flaking nightmare already, I am starting to wonder if my initial pessimism was misplaced. But then again, England's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is so impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 I think Sky TV just said that the highest fourth innings run-chase at the Oval was 269 for 9...? Or did you mean all first-class games as opposed to just Test?Anyway - given that the pitch is a cratered, flaking nightmare already, I am starting to wonder if my initial pessimism was misplaced. But then again, England's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is so impressive...Well there's a difference between successful fourth innings run chases and basic scores.I'm not really sure the pitch is all that bad. It sounds like Broad just bowled really well. Does it have so many demons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 I think Sky TV just said that the highest fourth innings run-chase at the Oval was 269 for 9...? Or did you mean all first-class games as opposed to just Test?Yeah, SerNAY has the right of it. I was referring to average score, rather than average score to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoë Sumra Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Oops. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Well, the lead is 273 with 7 wickets in hand. If England don't win from here, I will be completely and utterly bewildered.Yes, the chances of Australia failing so abysmally for two innings in the one match is low, but I really don't think that it's up to them given the pitch. Puffs of dust are coming up with each ball, most balls aren't reaching Haddin while others are bouncing through at regulation height. There's so much time in the match that a whole day could be rained out and England should still win comfortably.Part of the blame has to be laid on the Australian lineup. Broad and Swann did bowl well, but some of the dismissals were not needed. Haddin's in particular, trying to whip the ball through midwicket and getting clean bowled, was a bit silly. The bowlers were well on top and had he just played with a regulation full face of the bat it would have been fine. But then again I suppose that's just the way Haddin plays; if he'd scored and then gotten a quickfire fifty the game would be quite different.That Cardiff test result is looking huge now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Where's your aussie fighting spirit Jeor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Where's your aussie fighting spirit Jeor?Gone. I know a defeat when I see it. ;)England even look to be getting through a whole session without losing a wicket. Normally I'd take this as a good sign that the wicket is still playing true, but I think it's more a symptom of the lack of penetration by the Australian bowlers.There may be moments of brief hope, eg if some wickets are taken, or if they get off to a good opening partnership. But we're always going to be chasing the game and from a realistic point of view, these things don't happen. And given the way we batted in the first innings, we don't really deserve to win this match.I'd argue that I think we played well enough to at least square the series. We won at Headingley, should have won at Cardiff and had fought back to be slightly ahead at the Edgbaston draw. England won fair and square at Lords and in all likelihood will win here. So it has been a close series, the only difference being that we weren't able to close the deal at Cardiff. Not to mention all those bunches of statistics in Australia's favour. But it comes down to the results, and Australia ended up clumping too many of the good performances at times where it didn't really matter (lots of centuries at Cardiff and Edbaston).Currently the Bledisloe Cup (All Blacks vs Wallabies at home) looks more inviting than this match. At least in that one we're ahead. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Grargh! Australia lose the match in the dying moments of the game, All Blacks win 19-18 having scored in the 76th minute.At least this cricket match is preparing me for defeat a day or two in advance. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Gone. I know a defeat when I see it. ;)England even look to be getting through a whole session without losing a wicket. Normally I'd take this as a good sign that the wicket is still playing true, but I think it's more a symptom of the lack of penetration by the Australian bowlers.There may be moments of brief hope, eg if some wickets are taken, or if they get off to a good opening partnership. But we're always going to be chasing the game and from a realistic point of view, these things don't happen. And given the way we batted in the first innings, we don't really deserve to win this match.I'd argue that I think we played well enough to at least square the series. We won at Headingley, should have won at Cardiff and had fought back to be slightly ahead at the Edgbaston draw. England won fair and square at Lords and in all likelihood will win here. So it has been a close series, the only difference being that we weren't able to close the deal at Cardiff. Not to mention all those bunches of statistics in Australia's favour. But it comes down to the results, and Australia ended up clumping too many of the good performances at times where it didn't really matter (lots of centuries at Cardiff and Edbaston).Currently the Bledisloe Cup (All Blacks vs Wallabies at home) looks more inviting than this match. At least in that one we're ahead. ;)Ah, you're looking at things from a realistic point of view. Well then you are in trouble.Strauss gone just before the break. Good innings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 From a neutral point of view the match will get more exciting. Prior in and Flintoff to come, the scoring rate should lift a touch. Strauss won't declare, but he'll want to bash as many runs as they can before the day is done. Ideally England should look to add another quickfire 150-200 runs before getting out and having Australia bat the last 10 overs of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJDonegal Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 That would be ideal for England. At the moment they have a 329 run lead, and for the most part the batsmen have had it comfortable at the crease. Strauss was cutting loose on Clark and Clarke, but North tied him up and inexplicably got him out despite only one or two overs of pressure. Good innings until that.If England can get another quick 150, which is possible with Prior and Flintoff both being "positive" batsmen, then I would like a declaration. If England can hold out for the last 10 or 15 overs of the day, which could mean another 200 runs if they bat quickly, then a 529 run lead is well beyond Australia, and England will have TWO DAYS to bowl them out. Game over.We'll just have to see what Prior and Flintoff can do to up the rate. We may have to rely on a scratchy innings from Broad and Swann to finish off the 200 runs target which means I'll happily wait to bowl at Australia tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Prior out but England still not in any trouble. Arguably if they lost their last 5 wickets for no runs they still wouldn't be in trouble, the lead is well over 300 and that's safe enough.A little vexing that Katich has got more wickets with runouts than Stu Clark has got through bowling. ;) Clark has been misplayed here...I was singing his praises before the series in those matches where he wasn't playing, but he does look rather innocuous in this match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser_not_appearing_yet Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Wrong selection, Stu Clarke is inneffective on this pitch. Obviously Hauritz should've played instead.Fred looking to go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 And he got out with a bang- 22 off 18 balls, during which time Trott scored 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Wrong selection, Stu Clarke is inneffective on this pitch. Obviously Hauritz should've played instead.Obviously, yes he should have, the Australian selectors could have used a telegram before the match. ;) In hindsight it's obvious. England didn't pick their second spinner going into this match either, for instance, I don't think anyone expected this pitch to be this overbaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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