Chances of the Series actually getting Greenlighted?

[Three Headed Dragon]

With allegedly 10 other shows competing for the right to be created into series (http://www.cinemablend.com/television/HBO-...ilot-13371.html - at the bottom), which means they'll be competing directly with GoT, what does eveyone actually think the chances of it getting the greenlight are? Personally I would be very suprised if it didn't get made, with the current cast, level of fandom and (of course) brilliant books....its seems HBO can't really loose, it must be a definate front runner.

But are we taking that it's a 'given' in terms of being greenlighted? Imagine the mass dissapointment if some executive somewhere just yawns at the pilot and says "hmmm...i think not". My fingers are still firmly crossed.

Edit: Added URL

[Halfhand]

Taking into account the excellent cast, the amount of buzz and GRRM's seeming confidence in getting at least one season, I'd say it has about an 85% chance of being picked up.

It was said HBO would pick up around 5-6 of the original 10 pilots. So far, they've picked up 5 so I'm guessing that Game of Thrones is going to be the 6th and final pilot from that group.

[Andhaira]

I wish they would start filming already.

[Ran]

I'd say the odds are 60/40. I think people are way too optimistic. HBO has passed on pilots its produced before, and I think the nascent buzz is a drop in the bucket when you consider how little Internet buzz did for things like Snakes on a Plane and Watchmen; yes, those are films, but I think it scales.

[McCloskey]

Is there a breakdown somewhere of the 10 pilots and the 5 that have been picked up?

[Frank Stark]

I think the nascent buzz is a drop in the bucket when you consider how little Internet buzz did for things like Snakes on a Plane and Watchmen; yes, those are films, but I think it scales.

I don't think the viral marketing campaign's been invented that could get people to see Snakes on a Plane. Did they really expect much? I thought the Internet buzz for that movie was hugely negative.

I'm closer to Halfhand's guess, though I'd also expect the TV series to get cancelled prior to running the full book series. I'll try not to dwell on it too much though, to protect against disappointment.

[Ran]

Frank,

I thought the Internet buzz for that movie was hugely negative.

Nooooo. See here. Snakes on a Plane was marketed as the ultimate geek experience, and particularly pushed via Aint It Cool News and other film geek outlets. It had a huge presence on the net for awhile, and then it came out, and it was basically a failure (I think it made back its money and then some, but it fell far below expectations).

[Harry101]

Frank,

Nooooo. See here. Snakes on a Plane was marketed as the ultimate geek experience, and particularly pushed via Aint It Cool News and other film geek outlets. It had a huge presence on the net for awhile, and then it came out, and it was basically a failure (I think it made back its money and then some, but it fell far below expectations).

Yes he buzz was there. The problem was once the first wave of movie goers saw the film and realized how bad it sucked the movie bombed. Word of month is still very strong even with the internet. The internet can help you or it can hurt you.

[Three Headed Dragon]

I would put it at about 70% (this is obviously unscientific, just going with my gut!). Although I too feel people are being slightly too optimistic, but hey we are all fans so I guess thats kinda to be expected!

We all know the reasons why HBO would make the series, but if you think about for a moment why they wouln't make it there are lots of convincing arguments too. I've even met some CRAZY ASoIaF fans who think they would dislike the series..............crazy I know :rolleyes:

[Werthead]

I think there's a better than even chance of it going to series, but it depends on the pilot (because that's what pilots are for). HBO might decide the logistics are too complex, the casting budget too huge or any other issues, or they may want sweeping changes for the series from the pilot that push back the series a year or who knows what else. They may say "No," we all get sad, then they hurriedly resurrect the series a year or two years down the line when something else falls through and they need something ready to go.

There are a lot of variables involved and I think Ran's correct that people are adopting a "This cannot fail!" attitude when the first rule of anything to do with TV or film is that it can always fail.

Is there a breakdown somewhere of the 10 pilots and the 5 that have been picked up?

There's also been some confusion because it looks like the 10/5 thing (which was never set in stone anyway) wasn't necessarily referring to the whole batch of pilots produced this year. I remember us theorising that Treme and Boardwalk Empire might be part of the previous batch and GoT is part of the next one with several other recently-announced pilots not going before the camera until early next year.

[Ran]

Harry,

Well, yes, but what I mean is that just citing the existence of buzz is going to be practically meaningless these days. We're loud, but we're not many, and we can all run for the hills if it turns out to be bad -- so I don't expect HBO is going to be factoring it in its calculations. It doesn't hurt there are some TV critics pulling for it, though, I admit.

[The Mance]

Well, yes, but what I mean is that just citing the existence of buzz is going to be practically meaningless these days.

Isn't it different that the buzz for SoaP was artificially generated by a concerted advertising campaign to promote the event, while the GoT buzz is being generated by enthusiastic fans in anticipation of the event?

We're loud, but we're not many

We, here, are not many, but GRRM has consistently significant books sales with ASoiaF. Even more than True Blood's author, IIR from the last time we had this thread.

[Ser_not_appearing_yet]

I'm quietly confident. HBO's trend (particularly for 'big' series) is to give the show a one season go ahead after greenlighting the pilot, which is used more to fix up issues/cast. Of course, nothing is certain, but considering the cast and everything else involved, i find it VERY unlikely that it won't get at least a single season.

[Werthead]

That's actually a good point. The Sookie Stackhouse books were doing very nicely, but they hadn't hit the top of the NYT bestseller lists and their overall sales do not appear to have been as high as SoIaF's, even counting for the fact that there was six (or was it seven?) books out at the time the TV series debuted as compared to SoIaF's four. The potential audience based on the books alone is far higher than for True Blood (which I'm watching at the moment and is excellent, btw).

However, True Blood is also tapping the whole vampire/horror zeitgeist thing that's been going on for a few years. GoT will probably have to work harder to grab an audience since the epic-fantasy-on-screen craze triggered by the LotR movies has been dead for a few years now. It's possible that the new Hobbit movies may help with that regard (although GoT will debut - probably - almost a year ahead of the first of the new films coming out).

[Phoenix-torn]

Isn't it different that the buzz for SoaP was artificially generated by a concerted advertising campaign to promote the event, while the GoT buzz is being generated by enthusiastic fans in anticipation of the event?

I will admit it. I followed the Snakes on a Plane buzz before it come out. I saw the movie in the theatre. I paid money for it. It didn't make a lot, but the fact that it made anything is insane. It was the most stupid concept for a film. By all rights it whould have been direct to video.

Our GOT buzz is becasue we love the source material, we know the story, we have faith in the project, and casting, BUT it won't mean anything if the product is no good.

[Brude]

Anything can happen in film/TV. Everything could look to be going perfectly, and then Wham!, something totally out of the blue kills a project at the last minute. It happened to the original production of The Fountain which was supposed to star Brad Pitt, just days before it started shooting the whole thing fell apart. Same with Terry Gilliam's Don Quixote movie (and countless others). It could turn out that the pilot just really doesn't gel, everything looks wrong, the project is too disorganized, whatever. It also could just as easily turn out to be the greatest TV series ever. You never know until the thing gets made and viewed.

"The Godfather" was supposed to be a laughable bomb with bad casting decisions that threatened to sink Paramount Pictures, instead it was one of the great classics of all time. "Heaven's Gate" was supposed to be Michael Cimino's great followup to his Best Picture winning "The Deer Hunter," but instead it WAS a laughable bomb that sank United Artists. You just never know...

[red snow]

We've all seen too many US TV shows die even after being greenlit. There's also some examples of pilots that seemed to work but never got picked up such as "Virtuality" and "Global Frequency" (I haven't seen either because i couldn't see the point in torturing myself). At least with HBO, when if it is greenlit we will get a full season as opposed to network channels who can dump a show with a 22 episode arc at episode 6.

In terms of being greenlit we also need to consider the cast. I may be biased, growing up with Sharpe (the show, not the person), but Sean Bean is a big deal for a TV show. Ther rest of the cast appear to be solid and I guess Lena Headey is relatively big, although coming from a recently cancelled show isn't great.

I think True Blood being a success allowed AGOT to be made into a pilot but I don't think it helps it other than that. If True Blood had failed, HBO would have took it's foot straight out the fantasy bath. The big difference is that True Blood is contemporary fantasy, which is always an easier sell to a general audience. AGOT is in a medieval fantasy world and doesn't have any vampires (maybe they should make the others sparkle?).

But it will all come down to how the pilot, or filming of the pilot, goes down. D&D don't have a proven record as far as HBO is concerned and the director hasn't done this type of show before. True Blood has Alan Ball, and treme has David Simon, both with excellent track records for HBO. Boardwalk Empire has David Winter and Martin Scorcese. The writer/director team of AGOT is weak compared to those people (I'm hard pressed to think of some equal examples).

[Frank Stark]

Snakes on a Plane was marketed as the ultimate geek experience, and particularly pushed via Aint It Cool News and other film geek outlets.

Is it possible I'm not as big a geek as I always thought I was? :) My video game hours and DVD collection are at odds with this! I have a few geek friends, and none of us were at all interested in seeing Snakes. Maybe when I said "internet buzz" I was thinking more of post-release. Were the AICN folks actually covering the movie, with positive editorials, lots of casting news, script and film snippets, or was the site just deluged with flashy snake ads and the two gals in the plane bathroom?

I guess I think having the optimism of people who cover TV for general audience publications gives me more hope. I'm still 75/25 in favor of 1 season. I'm assuming, because it's HBO, that the production values will be good, and the casting looks like a home run to me. McCarthy should be able to "direct-up" anyone who's a weak link (not sure who that would be, but I know some have their doubts about certain actors). The source material is very good and almost built for a TV show. My biggest reservation was probably the writing itself (only familiar with Benioff's lesser film work), but I'm avoiding reading the leaked version and others here have convinced me of its worth.

Hopefully, the pilot production will show that D & D can manage a budget. Ultimately, wouldn't that big HBO's biggest concern? Cost vs. new subscribers/emmy buzz?

[Werthead]

coming from a recently cancelled show isn't great.

There is no stigma to this, at least not any more. One of the actresses from Pushing Daisies just won an Emmy despite that show being cancelled. People in Hollywood understand it's just business and doesn't reflect on the quality of the series.

[Ser Greguh]

I say that chances are very good, just because the niche the show would occupy is one that I intuit HBO has been looking to fill ever since The Sopranos ended and the exorbitant production costs forced Rome off the air. They have shown a pretty consistent willingness to invest in high-risk, high-reward projects that show potential not just to be a popular show but to be a phenomenon, and I just don't see how someone could read the pilot script, see the cast they've put together and not see enough potential there to take that chance.

The potential there in Game of Thrones is not just to be more than to be another Tru Blood or Big Love that will draw some viewers and enthusiastic fans, but to be the sort of flagship show you can drape your entire Sunday around. Neither of those two shows have the kind of spectacle that can exist as the middle finger to everyone else out there that says "I fucking dare you even to try to make a show half this good." Dominate the Emmys and sell DVD box sets like candy, make it the sort of show that people are really talking about on Monday mornings that makes people feel like they're really missing something awesome. Of course I'm biased toward the source material, but the potential is really there in a way that I just don't think can ever be there for a Big Love.

Another encouraging sign is the degree to which the producers are remaining conscious of cost (but in such a way that they can they can still retain A-list production values), i.e. filming in Ireland, and getting what for all the world appears to be a steal of a deal on the Paint Hall, which positions themselves as a sort of spiritual successor to Rome but minus the truly ridiculous price tag, something I really believe HBO will jump at in half a minute.

In terms of the degree to which its competition is in the other new shows being produced by HBO, I don't see it that way; I think that HBO will be more than willing to greenlight multiple shows of those descriptions, and let the competition factor in when it comes to who gets renewed. I see them as starving for truly good drama at the moment and unable to pass on at least a first season of a show that has GoT's potential.