Chances of the Series actually getting Greenlighted?

[Ran]

Hello, JWJ78. Welcome to the forum! You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. :)

We've already established that one book = one season, because GRRM has specifically said so. Many generally think that AFfC and ADwD will be mixed together if they get that far, but it'll still be two seasons worth of show. Un any case, we absolutely know the first season is just the first book.

It'll take between 3-6 seasons (and between 30 to 60 hours of programming) before Game of Thrones will cost the same as Jackson's LotR (assuming a budget between $50-$85 million per season vs. $285 million for the three films). Production values on television series are necessarily lower than high-end Hollywood films. HBO, the executive producers, and GRRM don't seem to think this is necessarily a problem.

We've also established that HBO does not approve multiple seasons of any show in advance. Most networks and cable channels never do, in fact. It's always year-to-year.

[Padraig]

The writers of all those shows were just winging it from season to season because they didn't know if they were going to get the next season Ok'd ahead of time, so it just stalls them. This is a big concern to me.

Are you saying that GRRM is winging it from book to book because he doesn't know whether his publisher will buy the next? :wideeyed:

[JWJ78]

Are you saying that GRRM is winging it from book to book because he doesn't know whether his publisher will buy the next? :wideeyed:

George isn't writing every episode for the show- only 1 per season.

but as far as the books are concerned....it has to raise a flag when you can't solve a writing issue after 4 years...that's some knot.

[JWJ78]

hmm.. i agree with some of your points, but for your calculations perhaps you should use the pilot's script. It gives a much more accurate depiction of how much is needed for one season and not crunching any numbers I'd guess it would be 1 season 1 book.

With Ned's head being the season finale. Quite strong if you ask me.

My hopes / guesses are they'll make it to season 3... and either it'll be as big as Sex & the City and they'll work around any inconveniencies (at that point probable 1 1/2 unfinished books won't be much of an inconvenvience, GRRM already knows the ending) ooorrrr... not and then they'll stop right then and there.

Well the leaked script I've write on the internet is suppose to end with Bran being thrown out the window- that happens on page 85/86 in my copy on GOT so if HBO does the same thing to ASOIAF like they did to the Sookie Stackhouse novels then I totally expect them to F'it up. NOT saying that it will not be good cause Trueblood is a good show but that show is not the same as the novels I'd say about 50% of what you see if totally made up for the show. DO you want that to happen with GOT just so they can make the show with a lesser budget or would you prefer to see as close an adaptation as possible? If it's HBO's plan to drag the first book out 2/3 seasons then they solve the unfinished story issue but then you add alot more production....still be super expense either way they choose to do it.

[fitheach]

Well the leaked script I've write on the internet is suppose to end with Bran being thrown out the window- that happens on page 85/86 in my copy on GOT so if HBO does the same thing to ASOIAF like they did to the Sookie Stackhouse novels then I totally expect them to F'it up. NOT saying that it will not be good cause Trueblood is a good show but that show is not the same as the novels I'd say about 50% of what you see if totally made up for the show. DO you want that to happen with GOT just so they can make the show with a lesser budget or would you prefer to see as close an adaptation as possible? If it's HBO's plan to drag the first book out 2/3 seasons then they solve the unfinished story issue but then you add alot more production....still be super expense either way they choose to do it.

The pilot ends with Bran getting thrown out the window, it's not the season ender.

[Werthead]

Btw, lots of people have been asking when we'd expect HBO to make a decision. I didn't realise that the Deadwood pilot was shot at the same time of year: that was shot in November and HBO commissioned the first season in January. This tracks with the pick-ups for Treme and Boardwalk Empire, which were within about 6 weeks of shooting finishing.

Based on that, my guess is that we will get a decision possibly in December but more likely before the end of February 2010 on the later side of things. I'd think a decision in January 2010 might be more likely.

[Brude]

JWJ78,

The pilot script goes up to p. 85/86 as you say and also includes the events in another 10 or 15 page chapter that comes after that, so in 1/12th of the first season, we cover about 13% or 14% of the whole book. This gives the writers plenty of room in later episodes, where they don't have to set up quite so much, to be a bit more expansive with plot and drama in each episode. But it also gives a good indication how the first book will get fleshed out on screen over a single season. One season per book has long been established for this series (with book 4 and 5 almost certainly being mixed together - the breakdowns for Theon's character said he would be needed in Season 4...).

Using LotR as a guide to how these books will be covered isn't so good. The long form series on TV is a very different animal than a feature film. A better comparison might be a long mini-series, like "I, Claudius" which covers about 900 pages from two books worth of story in 13 episodes (with some significant sections removed because in 1977 they didn't have the budget or effects for certain scenes, like Caligula building a pontoon bridge across the bay of Ostia). Another one to look at, Bleak House which covers about 900 pages in 8.5 hours.

Also, the pilot script hews pretty close to the books. Yes, some scenes/dialogue was made up for the show and I know of at least one other invented scene from a later episode from the casting sides that went out, but they seem to be well within the confines of the main plot of the story and are scenes invented to improve the on screen dramatic tension, much of which gets conveyed in the novels in various characters' internal monologues. So, personally I'm open to these changes, so long as they are handled well.

As for the budget, well we're all pretty in the dark about how much HBO is planning to spend, but some things can be inferred from other major productions they've done. We know they spent more than they had to on Rome and already this show has saved much of the money that was wasted there by the deal they made for the Paint Hall facility. Sets/locations should cost significantly less because of that. John Adams cost about $100 million, The Pacific is costing between $150 million and $200 million, so we've been able to infer. Everybody seems to forget this, but the $300-$450 million that was spent by New Line to make LotR was apparently in New Zealand dollars, so it really cost a lot less than everybody thinks it did. At least that's what they touted early in the production process, but seemed to stop mentioning when it came time to promote the actual release of the film because a big budget gets more press.

Also, published budgets are always inflated for feature films, I'm guessing some of that goes on for TV, too. Part of it is for press and part is because this is how Hollywood accountants make it possible to keep the entire industry alive for 80 years when supposedly no movie ever made is profitable. In this way they can cut people out of their net points on the back-end of their contracts, which usually means the writers and sometimes actors. Only producers, some directors and a very few actors get gross points (right now supposedly Will Smith is the only "gross player" in Hollywood, with the economy as it is even some other major superstars don't get that anymore).

[antisocial]

Btw, lots of people have been asking when we'd expect HBO to make a decision. I didn't realise that the Deadwood pilot was shot at the same time of year: that was shot in November and HBO commissioned the first season in January. This tracks with the pick-ups for Treme and Boardwalk Empire, which were within about 6 weeks of shooting finishing.

Based on that, my guess is that we will get a decision possibly in December but more likely before the end of February 2010 on the later side of things. I'd think a decision in January 2010 might be more likely.

Hey I know Ran doesnt think that Sean Bean has that much "pull" in terms of his fame, I have to say I disagree. I can almost bet you that when they got him signed D & D did a fist pump (okay maybe a mental one).

Its a face that most of the world has seen and recognizes. LotR, Troy (I really liked him in that movie), Ronin (very memorable character), and even National Treasure.

I will agree he can be categorized as a "B" list actor. (Totally undeserving in my opinion, hes "A+" all the way). But I dont know any other supporting lead/role that has as much image recognition as him...

*But back on track*

Directors/Producers I know want him for roles. I bet his agent gets to cherry pick what he reads for.

*Back off track for a second*

If you look who he plays opposite of..he picks his movies very intelligently. Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom, Nick Cage, etc, this guy and his agent are not stupid.

*making it all relevant*

That means him picking HBO over a movie (which Im sure he has lots of offers for) says alot. It also means HBO would be incredibly stupid not to green light at least the 1st season, just so they dont lose Bean. And if not the whole 1st season, at least 1/2 of it.

And you can bet any critics will take note of him being in this series. And as he is one hell of an actor, expect him to make "Ned" a character to remember and even sympathize with.

I bet as soon as the pilot is done shooting they'll be starting on the 1st episode.

Heck, the only way HBO can lose money, is if they dont film the first season.

[Padraig]

George isn't writing every episode for the show- only 1 per season.

Do I really have to explain this? :) You said you were concerned that the writers would be winging it from season to season. Given that the books are already written for 4 seasons, that doesn't make sense.

[Rimmer]

Too many characters, too many plot lines, too high a production cost- AND at this point no finale! What they are just going to write up a yr to yr deal or a 4 yr deal up front with the promise George will be able to complete the next 3 probably 4 books within the same 4 yr time period of the first four tv seasons- DON'T think so not when it takes 5+ years for him to write one.

They'll approve Season 1 if they think it will be profitable on its own merits. Then they'll approve Season 2 if they think Clash of Kings will be profitable. From a business point of view, if they get 4 seasons that they make money off and then decide not to do the 5th, that will be fine for them. It'd kind of suck for the fans to be left with half the series, but at least we'd have something.

The rest of your post makes even less sense. Ten pages of Lord of the Rings could be a description of a forest, or Aragorn prancing along with the hobbits telling legendary stories; you can't compare them page-by-page when they're such different writing styles. And comparing the budgets of an HBO show to a blockbuster trilogy is even worse; I don't know where to start.

[JWJ78]

Do I really have to explain this? :) You said you were concerned that the writers would be winging it from season to season. Given that the books are already written for 4 seasons, that doesn't make sense.

sure it does, there are not 4 seasons of TV scripts laying around there are four books of source material for the TV show. The writers for this show (being people other then GRRM) will have to adapt it and change things the match the directors pacing for events to play out. SO yes if it's a season to season deal the writers could be "winging it".

[HT Reddy]

You can compare it to LotR if you want, some people are just saying that there might be closer more relevant comparisons that could be made - similarity in format is probably a more useful criterion for whether something would make a good comparison than whether it sucked or not.

sure it does, there are not 4 seasons of TV scripts laying around there are four books of source material for the TV show. The writers for this show (being people other then GRRM) will have to adapt it and change things the match the directors pacing for events to play out. SO yes if it's a season to season deal the writers could be "winging it".

But how is this different from every other television programme?

[JWJ78]

You can compare it to LotR if you want, some people are just saying that there might be closer more relevant comparisons that could be made - similarity in format is probably a more useful criterion for whether something would make a good comparison than whether it sucked or not.

But how is this different from every other television programme?

that's one of my points- it's not different from any other TV show if you are only looking at it (production) that way, hence the comparison to doing it like a movie so you don't have the quality issues with the season to season waiting lag.

People like to use Rome as a comparison- well here's my point to a tee; Rome season 1= awesome, Rome season 2= crap. Why is that?

Another comparison to my point, LOST. I love LOST, even during the it's starting to get strange period between season 2 and 3, that's when a lot of viewers started to lose interest because the writers didnt have an endgame play to finish the show. Once ABC man'd up and decide to give the go ahead for writers to play everything out for the next 3 seasons- no more quality issues and fans are happier again.

It's this kinda thing that kills really good TV shows, ALA - HEROES. HBO has done it in the past too Carnival, Rome.

[Padraig]

SO yes if it's a season to season deal the writers could be "winging it".

What? Maybe you have a different definition of "winging it". Unless the writers of the series go in a completely different direction from the books, they can't be said to be "winging it"

please get your panties out of a wad.

Hey, don't get insulted because people don't agree with your ideas. :)

[Rimmer]

Right, cause GRRM doesn't go on and on about whoring or feasting or anything in-depth....and I wasn't comparing writing style AT ALL.

I can't understand why most of you have the mental block about comparing this to a major motion picture- afterall it's a FILM ADAPTATION! does it really matter that much too you that it's tv format vs full length movie? please get your panties out of a wad. I was simply thinking of other film adaptations of great fantasy scifi and to this day LOTR is the best, so why not compare this to the best? cause lets be realistic, most fantasy scifi tv shows have all pretty sucked up to now (Legend of the Seeker anyone?).

The proportion of Tolkien's descriptions compared to his narrative and dialog is A LOT greater than GRRM's, so comparing page counts is meaningless. The whoring and feasting is part of the action anyway. Descriptions of willow trees less so.

As for budget, Game of Thrones will be nowhere near the scale of Lord of the Rings, in any way. I can't even be bothered arguing this one.

[Lord O' Bones]

As for budget, Game of Thrones will be nowhere near the scale of Lord of the Rings, in any way. I can't even be bothered arguing this one.

Or even the scale of the aformentioned Rome, unless the CGI needs are exhorbitant. Which I'm not even sure is possible anymore.

[williamjm]

The proportion of Tolkien's descriptions compared to his narrative and dialog is A LOT greater than GRRM's, so comparing page counts is meaningless.

It's especially meaningless considering how much of LOTR was simply cut out of the films - the Tom Bombadil section and the Scouring of the Shire are the most obvious examples - there was a lot more than just descriptions that were lost in translation.