Mafia 69.33: A mini-minigame

[May]

Actually, I won't place my vote tonight. There could be an evil voting block of 2. And 3 votes are enough for conviction. It would be over then. I'll get up tomorrow before the deadline and vote then.

You are right but this is going to be a problem for me as I have to be out in about four hours and I don't know if I can get computer access (or how well it's going to go down if I'm on a computer at a friends engagement party. Are we able to do something before then, if not I'd have to leave a vote on my main suspect, who is HT, or possibly miss the lynch

[May]

Contrary to my previous post, I've just realised I'll probably (and hopefully!) be sleeping until the deadline. Since if there are two FM we need all the innocents to vote the same way to not lose, as the first innocent to vote without being able to change it, the game is effectively in my hands.

*pauses for thought*

My gut suspicions are still on Malc, plus a partner who I vacillate between.

So, *closes eyes*

...Malc

eta: and night-night!

This is of concern. I still have no reason to trust you, in fact you are looking worse to me and now you are going to leave a vote on someone and disappear? This leave no room for the rest of us to reevaluate and change the vote if you are innocent, which I find more and more unlikely.

[May]

See, this is why I suspect you. That is a blatant contradiction from what you said earlier. Are you just trying to kiss up to me, because I recently said I suspected Reddy and didn't suspect Malc as much as the other options?

Here's what you said earlier. This was only 12 hours ago, and not much has happened since you made this post -

Malc was your top suspect. And you wanted to lynch one of Malcolm, me, or May. Reddy wasn't even on your list.

So whats changed since that post?

Uber is fluctuating a lot with his votes, it could be suspicious or it could be that he is worried about placing a wrong vote.

Bullshit or no bullshit, I said why. Not voting for the same guy would be the lowest form of distancing. And it makes sense to me. If I were to vote a mob guy, I would vote Malc. And If we assume that they are both alive and they weren't both on mob, it leaves me the choice of voting for Malc and having 33% chance. Or 50 (100) % chance voting for Reddy.

The biggest flaw is that TMW could've been somebody's symp or that May is Malc's symp and that she hasn't thought about distancing and placed her vote along with his.

The logic behind this makes sense to me, If Uber is innocent he's probably right about HT.

[Whiskeyjack]

You are right but this is going to be a problem for me as I have to be out in about four hours and I don't know if I can get computer access (or how well it's going to go down if I'm on a computer at a friends engagement party. Are we able to do something before then, if not I'd have to leave a vote on my main suspect, who is HT, or possibly miss the lynch

Welcome back, May.

6 hours left. We have to lynch somebody today.

[TheMalcolm]

Worst thing about ubermensch is not the contradiction his made, but his plain refuse to admit making it. Awful.

[Whiskeyjack]

Malc......do you still want to vote May?

Do you think the evil team is May and uber? Or May and Reddy?

Why do you think you're still alive? Uber and May have both been here. If they're evil together, why didn't they both just vote for you and end this? We couldn't have done anything to stop them.

[May]

Welcome back, May.

6 hours left. We have to lynch somebody today.

I know, the only person I feel fairly certain is guilty is HT. Uber's behaviour is strange I agree and he worries me a bit, but I think Reddy is by far the surer bet. I've gotta go in about two hours.

[Whiskeyjack]

I know, the only person I feel fairly certain is guilty is HT. Uber's behaviour is strange I agree and he worries me a bit, but I think Reddy is by far the surer bet. I've gotta go in about two hours.

Okay.

So right now, you would prefer to vote Reddy.

Do you have any theories on why Malcolm is still alive?

[May]

Malc......do you still want to vote May?

Do you think the evil team is May and uber? Or May and Reddy?

Why do you think you're still alive? Uber and May have both been here. If they're evil together, why didn't they both just vote for you and end this? We couldn't have done anything to stop them.

Malcolm has taken some firm stances on issues that haven't been in line with everyone else. But he has referred to other games and situations that have influenced his actions. He definitely has his own opinions about things and he's stuck to them, which is a point in his favor. The fact that he hasn't been quick to lynch is confusing, and I'm not sure whether it a pro or a con. I'm not sure about him.

[May]

I was responding to your query above WJ, I must have been on the wrong page, disreguard quote.

[Whiskeyjack]

I was responding to your query above WJ, I must have been on the wrong page, disreguard quote.

Thats fine, but you didn't answer my question. Not in the way it was intended.

It doesn't matter though. I know the answer.

Since Malcolm is alive, you and uber less likely to be an evil team. Because you would have just voted for him.

Same goes for me + uber.

Same goes for me + you.

Of course, I already knew those last two. Point is, one of the following is true:

1) You and uber are a fairly uncoordinated evil team (which I guess is possible)

2) An evil player is already dead, in which case we aren't at endgame

3) Or one of Reddy or Malcolm has to be evil

From my perspective, thats where things stand right now.

[TheMalcolm]

Malc......do you still want to vote May?

Yes. But I hadn't a chance to think about it after waking up. I'll make final decision after a walk.

Do you think the evil team is May and uber? Or May and Reddy?

There are arguments for both alternatives.

Why do you think you're still alive? Uber and May have both been here. If they're evil together, why didn't they both just vote for you and end this? We couldn't have done anything to stop them.

I see three variants:

1) Killer is either Reddy or me.

2) Symp is dead already.

3) They are just playing with us. Since Reddy won't return, they have no need to hurry.

[Whiskeyjack]

I see three variants:

1) Killer is either Reddy or me.

2) Symp is dead already.

3) The are just playing with us. Since REddy won't return, they have no need to hurry.

Exactly.

[May]

WJ, I am hoping that you are innocent because if you are not it will still be impossible to lynch you with Reddy's vote placed and Malcolms refusal to vote for you. This means that if you are guilty the only way to win is to lynch your accomplice. I'm not saying you are guilty, I'm not sure that you are, the point is it doesn't matter, you are pretty much untouchable. It's ironic because Reddy said that and has effectively made it that way with his vote.

I can't lynch you and I'm uncertain about lynching Malcolm or Uber. I really don't think my opinion will change at this stage. Its the only real option that I I can see.

[TheMalcolm]

Exactly.

Ok. In case 3) we can't do anything, so we might ignore ingnore tihs possibility. Choosing between 1) and 2), safe play is to prefer 1).

From my own PoV, lynching May is relatively safe too... no, even from my PoV it's worse. You convinced me, only real choice is me or Reddy now.

[Whiskeyjack]

I can't lynch you and I'm uncertain about lynching Malcolm or Uber. I really don't think my opinion will change at this stage. Its the only real option that I I can see.

Well, here's how it is, May.

If you vote for Reddy, then we're going to lose if the evil team is Malcolm + uber.

If thats not the team, then your vote won't decide anything.

If you're decided, then go ahead. Cast your vote, and we'll see what happens.

*calm like a bomb*

ETA - Didn't see Malc's vote for Reddy. Hmm. Hold off, May. I need to think.

[Whiskeyjack]

If I take out a potential uber/May team, what am I left with?

uber/Malcolm

uber/Reddy

May/Malcolm

May/Reddy

Malcolm/Reddy

Uber had Malcolm as his top suspect, but then switched to Reddy.

May wants to vote Reddy.

Malcolm wanted to vote May, but changed to Reddy.

Malcolm voted Reddy.

No matter what, there's some serious distancing going on here. Assuming 2 living evil players.

[Whiskeyjack]

If Malcolm and Reddy are a team, why would they set it up so we had to lynch one of them today? Seems like a poor move, given that they are so close to victory.

On the other hand, it could be possible that Reddy cast his vote on Malcolm for distance, and Malc was planning to get us to vote May. But then he saw that May and uber were both leaning toward Reddy, and decided distancing was more important, since that lynch was more likely than a May lynch.

Hmm. Would Reddy cast the first vote of the day on his partner? Its possible, but seems unlikely to me at this stage in the game. I don't think I'd be able to do it unless I was almost certain that the rest of the group was either going to go that way anyway, or turn against me with their votes.

[TheMalcolm]

If I take out a potential uber/May team, what am I left with?

Uber had Malcolm as his top suspect, but then switched to Reddy.

And I pushed for Uber's lynch all the previous day. It would be successful if TMW wouldn't so stubborn.

[Whiskeyjack]

And I pushed for Uber's lynch all the previous day. It would be successful if TMW wouldn't so stubborn.

True. I really wish he had cast his vote for uber more quickly. I was waiting and waiting, but then I got worried that we were going to miss the lynch (again).

But your push to lynch uber could have been distancing.