Mafia 69.33: A mini-minigame

[ubermensch]

Hahahaha, awesome post :D

[Whiskeyjack]

I am also worried about the you and Piper scenario, which I mentioned earlier and was told that i was too obvious, because what if you know that thts what people would think and are therefore expecting this to cover any connection.

So much for that theory.

Nice scene, T'arg'arye'n.

'

[ubermensch]

Off to bed guys. This was a very exhausting day.... Good night.

[House Targaryen]

So much for that theory.

Nice scene, T'arg'arye'n.

Th'ank y'o'u. :love:

[ubermensch]

And just 1 more thing. I believe that the key lies in the mob that formed on day 1 on TMW. All of them are my tier 1 now. Think about that...

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

5 players remain: HT Reddy, May, TheMalcolm, Whiskeyjack, ubermensch.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

5 players have not voted: HT Reddy, May, TheMalcolm, Whiskeyjack, ubermensch.

[Whiskeyjack]

If anybody has a role other than Soldier, reveal it now.

Healer is mostly useless at this point. Its more valuable in a role reveal than as a weapon against the FM.

Guard has some value, but a reveal doesn't undermine that value, because the Guard is only effective if he's successful tonight. And if he's successful tonight, then he will block the kill, thereby saving himself (side note - he can only be successful tonight if there's 1 FM and 1 Symp, or we lynch a FM today). Also, a Guard might have useful information for us, with regard to who he guarded on nights 1 and 2 (if anybody).

Soldier....I guess that role should probably stay quiet for the moment. I really want a mass reveal, but a reveal would probably be the wrong move for a Soldier.

I guess I should add - I have a role. But I'm holding it back for the moment. I want role reveals (or statements of 'no role') from everyone else first.

[Whiskeyjack]

And just 1 more thing. I believe that the key lies in the mob that formed on day 1 on TMW. All of them are my tier 1 now. Think about that...

Answer my post before you go.

[Whiskeyjack]

HT Reddy - want to remind you that I'd still like an answer to my question in this post when you get back.

[HT Reddy]

Reddy, what changed in your feelings about Malcolm between here -

and here -

HT Reddy - want to remind you that I'd still like an answer to my question in this post when you get back.

I assume that's the one you referred to.

Basically I hate Malc. Not really, I love you Malc, but I find it impossible to judge his suspiciousness. I am torn between a desire to never vote Malc because he's awesome (this impulse lost me a game though, so I'm rather less fond of it now) and the mafia player's tendency to always find Malc suspicous. Obviously I was wrong about a Malc-piper pairing. But I do now think Malc is evil - i guess we'd best be careful with votes due to it being endgame (we assume) so I won't vote now. But Malc doesn't seem to be playing like normal abrasive independent-minded innocent Malc. I think he's evil.

As to the rest I don't know - I still think uber is suspicious, but I don't understand why he wouldn't vote TMW on day one since TMW wasn't his partner, so I am willing to put him on PI. WJ, meh you might be evil, but honestly how does one tell? May could well be evil with Malc.

So I am favouring a Malc-May pairing right now.

[HT Reddy]

And I am Roleless and going to bed now.

[May]

If anybody has a role other than Soldier, reveal it now.

Healer is mostly useless at this point. Its more valuable in a role reveal than as a weapon against the FM.

Guard has some value, but a reveal doesn't undermine that value, because the Guard is only effective if he's successful tonight. And if he's successful tonight, then he will block the kill, thereby saving himself (side note - he can only be successful tonight if there's 1 FM and 1 Symp, or we lynch a FM today). Also, a Guard might have useful information for us, with regard to who he guarded on nights 1 and 2 (if anybody).

Soldier....I guess that role should probably stay quiet for the moment. I really want a mass reveal, but a reveal would probably be the wrong move for a Soldier.

I guess I should add - I have a role. But I'm holding it back for the moment. I want role reveals (or statements of 'no role') from everyone else first.

I am roleless.

I'm not certain that revealing any roles is the best idea. If you are FM and people reveal themselves, their roles will become useless. Any chance the healer could effect a night kill are gone, because he would have to heal himself or another roled player, leaving the FM with more of an idea of who not to kill. If you are evil, then getting everyone to reveal their roles would be of benefit to you. If you are not, the real FM would still gain as much as we would. People can easily lie about having a role, and there are more possible roles to choose from then there are likely to be in the game. An FM could claim a role and make himself look innocent which could very well win them the game. How do you plan to tell a real reveal from a false one, and how can we be certain you are being truthful if you reveal a role?

[Whiskeyjack]

I am roleless.

I'm not certain that revealing any roles is the best idea. If you are FM and people reveal themselves, their roles will become useless. Any chance the healer could effect a night kill are gone, because he would have to heal himself or another roled player, leaving the FM with more of an idea of who not to kill.

Like I said before, Healer is mostly useless at this point. Lets say we have 2 evil players left. We lynch somebody today. 4 players left, 2 evil. At night, the Healer blocks the kill. So the next day, its 2 evil players and 2 good players. Guess what? The good players no longer have enough votes to lynch an evil player, so the FM win. Game over.

The only way the Healer is going to matter is if we lynch an evil player today (or if we got lucky and one of the dead players was a symp). Given that knowledge, we have to prioritize lynching an evil player over the Healer hiding to use his power. As I said before, its more important for us to have the information of who is claiming to be the Healer, than it is to have a Healer in hiding while we lose the game.

Anyway....you and Reddy are on the record as not having roles. Still waiting on Malcolm and uber. Doubt either will be back for a while.

In the meantime, feel free to elaborate on your suspicions. Can you post your detailed thoughts about HT Reddy? And about Malcolm as well?

[May]

Like I said before, Healer is mostly useless at this point. Lets say we have 2 evil players left. We lynch somebody today. 4 players left, 2 evil. At night, the Healer blocks the kill. So the next day, its 2 evil players and 2 good players. Guess what? The good players no longer have enough votes to lynch an evil player, so the FM win. Game over.

The only way the Healer is going to matter is if we lynch an evil player today (or if we got lucky and one of the dead players was a symp). Given that knowledge, we have to prioritize lynching an evil player over the Healer hiding to use his power. As I said before, its more important for us to have the information of who is claiming to be the Healer, than it is to have a Healer in hiding while we lose the game.

Anyway....you and Reddy are on the record as not having roles. Still waiting on Malcolm and uber. Doubt either will be back for a while.

In the meantime, feel free to elaborate on your suspicions. Can you post your detailed thoughts about HT Reddy? And about Malcolm as well?

That makes sense, it's still a bad loss though, and I'm not sure how much the reveal will help. As I said before, evils can still lie about their roles.

I think that HT is up at the top of my suspect list atm. He has a friendly demeanor that makes him likeable, but he is all over the place, his voting suspicions have completely turned around since yesterday and are now focused on more lynchable people. I also noticed that TMW never answered a direct question about his possible guilt with any substance, even though the question was reasked a few times by other people, so TMW was his symp?.

He could also be a possible symp for you, which he was keen to point out was impossible.

I couldn't be WJ's symp either - i had my vote on him yesterday

You were in no danger of being lynched so that doesn't fly with me.

You are still of concern to me because the more I read of you the more I want to trust you, however, if you are a very good player, which seems to be the general consensus, then you could be be doing a very good job of diverting suspicion as FM. You are exactly the sort of player that could manipulate players into voting wrong if you are playing FM.

As to the TheMalcolm, he has made some odd posts and was strangely reluctant to lynch TMW, so he could also be a symp or evil tied to TMW. He seems fairly honest in what he's saying but people have stated that his playstyle is unusual for him which could be an indication of his guilt, I'm not really in a position to judge from this angle. He has also been pushing the FM-symp theory pretty hard, but he could well be right about that so I don't think that that is neccessarily a bad thing.

Uber is probably the player I'm liking the most at the moment, but he could still be an FM who thought that TMW was his symp, or an FM simply lying low.

My Suspicions are as follows:

1. HT Reddy

2.WJ

3.The Malcolm

4.Uber

[TheMalcolm]

I am roleless. More thoughts later.

[TheMalcolm]

I still suespect ubermensch, but I agree that he probably isn't paired killer. Either he is lone killer or paired killers are two of WJ, Reddy and May.

Points against WJ is that a) he is still alive and b) he haven't made any wonders in this game. But I don't see any signs by which I usually catch guilty WJ (dramatizing immaterial details) and I like idea of mass reveal. I decided to trust him.

Then, only possible pair of killers is Reddy and May. May also is only player who might be ubermensch's symp (me and Reddy voted him and WJ was ready to axe him).

So, by method of exception, May is most safe lynch. From my PoV, of course.

[ubermensch]

I guess I should add - I have a role. But I'm holding it back for the moment. I want role reveals (or statements of 'no role') from everyone else first.

Waiting for everybody else to reveal themselves so that you can falsely claim one of the unclaimed roles and go VPI until the end of the game? Do you have a code or something similiar? You could've coded each of the roles in different posts and then show us one that fits..

Yes, all that you said is true. Time for reveal is now. But as I said, at least one of the bad guys is from the TMW Day 1 mob. And you were on it...

Off to town, cya in 2-3 hours.

[ubermensch]

And, no-role.

[ubermensch]

I'm back.

Ok, here is a little analysis.

Malc -> Probably my primary suspect. He insisted on lynching me even after WJ and I posted why would be better to lynch TMW first. If you had lynched me, I would have turned NAK and then you would proceed to lynch TMW and the game would be lost. Generally, there's something about him that's bugging me. He is way more talkative and active than he was in the last game. He was also on the TMW Day 1 mob.

WJ -> He is active, and most of his posts make sense. I don't quite know his style and because of that I can't say too much about him. This mass-reveal thing could be an attempt to falsely claim a role. Everything is possible with him. He was also on the TMW mob.

May -> She is my blindspot. Don't quite know why. She has a fair amount of posts, and most of her stuff makes sense. I'll have to do a detailed re-read on her. She is after-all my Tier 1 suspect, along with Malc and WJ.

I think that today's lynch should be one of these 3. I'm a bit confused about Piper's death. Could anybody present their theories about it?

[HT Reddy]

That makes sense, it's still a bad loss though, and I'm not sure how much the reveal will help. As I said before, evils can still lie about their roles.

I think that HT is up at the top of my suspect list atm. He has a friendly demeanor that makes him likeable, but he is all over the place, his voting suspicions have completely turned around since yesterday and are now focused on more lynchable people. I also noticed that TMW never answered a direct question about his possible guilt with any substance, even though the question was reasked a few times by other people, so TMW was his symp?.

He could also be a possible symp for you, which he was keen to point out was impossible.

You were in no danger of being lynched so that doesn't fly with me.

Hmmm maybe. I think this is a bit of a stretch, though I admit my suspicions have changed a lot from yesterday. Basically uber is made to look better by TMW flipping innocent, and WJ, well if he's evil then we've basically already lost, so I can't see the point of making a case on him (I actually don't find him suspicious though this game). And that leaves you and Malc. The point of me saying that I voted WJ is that it's a semi-rule of westeros mafia that symps don't vote for masters. I believe WJ to be particularly keen on maintaining that as the case, so if I was his symp I wouldn't have voted for him. I guess you'll have to take my word for that though.

I still suespect ubermensch, but I agree that he probably isn't paired killer. Either he is lone killer or paired killers are two of WJ, Reddy and May.

Points against WJ is that a) he is still alive and b) he haven't made any wonders in this game. But I don't see any signs by which I usually catch guilty WJ (dramatizing immaterial details) and I like idea of mass reveal. I decided to trust him.

Then, only possible pair of killers is Reddy and May. May also is only player who might be ubermensch's symp (me and Reddy voted him and WJ was ready to axe him).

So, by method of exception, May is most safe lynch. From my PoV, of course.

This is a helpful post. Malc's only possible pair of killers includes me. and is therefore wrong. Since this post makes a Malc-May combination a bit less likely (not impossible mind you) I currently fear (not entirely rationally) a Malc-WJ evil team. Point is, I will vote Malc today unless a role reveal changes anything. A Malc-uber team would also be possible I guess, but I'll worry about who Malc's partner is tomorrow.