Mafia 69.33: A mini-minigame

[The Man Who]

Unless there is a symp. In this case, Uber and Reddy had a good reason to prefer night to your lynch even if you aren't parnered with any of them. There were too few interactions during Day 1.

Noted.

Uber and HT are not off my radar by any means.

[TheMalcolm]

To address you specifically,

You have nothing to say about me and Reddy?

[ubermensch]

There were 8 of us. And I didn't vote. There were more people that could vote. I didn't vote because I didn't find TMW blatantly suspicious as some of you did and because i was away from internet. That makes me suspicious? And why didn't some of other people remove their votes if you wanted to lynch so badly? If I were his partner, I could have placed my vote on someone else, to avoid looking suspicious, for example on Ht Reddy, which I really find suspicious. Gertrude voted for him and she died.. I just don't like placing my vote randomly or bandwagoning. If we lynched an innocent dude, and proceeded to lose the game because of that I would have felt guilty. As I did in the last zombie game.

And about my inactivity, I can't do nothing to prove it. If you don't believe me, try to lynch me today, or W8 until tomorrow afternoon. Prolong this day long enough. And then I'm free to play full time. And by full time, I really mean full time.

Off to my German course. :tantrum:

[Piper of Chaos]

To address you specifically, I didn't particularly favour your first day play. The main thing that bugs me is something that Gert brought up previously - that your vote was the 'momentum vote', and that it was, to my mind, a very flimsy vote.

You're also playing like a symp to WJ, which is something that irritates me.

I'm also not sure about your conclusions from Gert's death. NKs are WiFoM all the time, and you seem to be drawing pretty strong options from them, which coincidentally clear WJ again.

I think you misinterpret Gert's statement. IMO she was saying that she was worried in general that a single vote like mine could influence the outcome of the day.

Why are you irritated about me acting as WJ's symp? Do you agree with Malc that there is a symp in this game? And if I was WJ's symp, why would I act it so plainly obvious?

Does that also mean that you disagree with my theories about WJ so far? If you think he is an FM, who could be his partner?

[Piper of Chaos]

Off to my German course. :tantrum:

Viel Spass beim Lernen! :)

[Piper of Chaos]

Hmmh, say TMW is innocent - do we really think that both evil players were on his mob?

I somehow doubt this. :unsure:

[TheMalcolm]

There were 8 of us. And I didn't vote. There were more people that could vote. I didn't vote because I didn't find TMW blatantly suspicious as some of you did and because i was away from internet.

You look so... overdefensive now. Could you stop explaining why you aren't guilty (this almost never works) and try to suggest us alternative candidacy for lynching?

[TheMalcolm]

Hmmh, say TMW is innocent - do we really think that both evil players were on his mob?

I somehow doubt this. :unsure:

I agree.

If there are killer+symp, symp evidently was on the mob and killer wasn't (unless TMW is a symp). if there are two killers, distribution is less obvious; but looking either on the mob and off is good idea anyway.

[Piper of Chaos]

You look so... overdefensive now. Could you stop explaining why you aren't guilty (this almost never works) and try to suggest us alternative candidacy for lynching?

I am more irritated that his defense makes no sense. If we assume that TMW is guilty, of course we will look at both Reddy and him, since Gert is obviously innocent and TMW is already labelled "guilty" in this scenario. Reddy at least has the excuse of not being there for most of the day.

Nonetheless I will have a look at May now, especially at her conversation with Gert that resulted in May's vote.

[Piper of Chaos]

I agree.

If there are killer+symp, symp evidently was on the mob and killer wasn't (unless TMW is a symp). if there are two killers, distribution is less obvious; but looking either on the mob and off is good idea anyway.

Oddly, I think it's the other way around. A symp might well decide to follow his master to signal that he's on his side. Two FM OTOH will likely decide that it's not good for them to be both on the mob of someone who will come up innocent after the lynch.

ETA:

btw, if you think that the killer in a FM/symp scenario was off the mob, why did he not kill someone who was on the mob (-> voting pattern analysis)?

[TheMalcolm]

btw, if you think that the killer in a FM/symp scenario was off the mob, why did he not kill someone who was on the mob (-> voting pattern analysis)?

Well, personally I never do voting pattern analysis when being killer, I just kill whoever harms me. So I don't expect my opponents to do so (everybody judges by himself). In fact, only players who would look into voting patterns if guilty are you, WJ and possibly TMW. All the rest won't care.

[Whiskeyjack]

I'm here finally. I see that we didn't lynch anyone. Gert's dead. I didn't manage to get to web in time, and even if i did, i probably wouldn't vote anyone because i don't think that random lynching is a good thing. There was 25% chance that we lynch a bad guy. And this gives us a day more..

It gives us a day longer to discuss things. But it doesn't give us an extra day in game terms (we can still only afford 1 incorrect lynch). We actually lost any realistic opportunity we'd have to gain an extra lynch.

Also, (using your math) you don't like a 25% chance, but you're okay with the 28.6% chance we have after 1 person is night killed? Is it really that much of an improvement?

Now, a question about your math. You are saying the odds were 2/8 (25%) to lynch an evil player yesterday. If you're innocent, then shouldn't it be 2/7 (28.6%) from your perspective?

it made sense for Uber not to hammer his partner*.

* one might argue that he could have gained our trust by hammering his partner, but letting his partner live should be more important to him

I agree. Especially in such a small game, where the FM are already so close to winning. In that situation, I could easily see a FM holding back from dropping the hammer. Especially a relatively new player who may not have thought much about distancing.

Btw, if there's a BP out there, IMO he might as well reveal today, since he would not be able to save us an extra day, now that we're at an odd number of players.

Agree again. But I don't have anything to reveal.

[Whiskeyjack]

There were 8 of us. And I didn't vote. There were more people that could vote.

Irrelevant.

I didn't vote because I didn't find TMW blatantly suspicious as some of you did and because i was away from internet. That makes me suspicious?

But you weren't away, at least not the whole time. You stopped by the thread with 1.5 hours left in the day. That was your opportunity to vote. You knew there was only one realistic option. You chose to not cast a vote.

I'll also note that you never actually said that you didn't suspect TMW. You just made this useless, wishy washy post -

Eh. Day ends soon. And i have no idea who to vote. I'm off to college now, and I'll try to log on from there and place my vote in the last few mins. I'll copy the thread on my cellphone and do a few re-reads until then.

How could you not even address the issue of our top suspect? Makes me wonder if you didn't want to commit to any concrete evaluation, in case he was lynched and came up guilty.

And why didn't some of other people remove their votes if you wanted to lynch so badly?

Not sure what you're asking here. Do you mean 'move', rather than 'remove'?

If I were his partner, I could have placed my vote on someone else, to avoid looking suspicious, for example on Ht Reddy, which I really find suspicious.

The only options at that time were TMW or nobody. Voting for anybody else would have had no effect (and been equivalent to not voting at all, in terms of helping the lynch), because it was too late to move the mob elsewhere.

Gertrude voted for him and she died..

What's your point?

I just don't like placing my vote randomly or bandwagoning. If we lynched an innocent dude, and proceeded to lose the game because of that I would have felt guilty. As I did in the last zombie game.

Lynching innocent players is part of the game. Sometimes its necessary, to get information. Bottom line is that you should almost always lynch in a CF game, unless you're at endgame and facing the odd-even rule, or you're faced by a believable last second role claim.

More importantly, you don't know that he is innocent. Any chance to lynch a FM is better than no chance to lynch a FM. I could possibly understand the other side of the argument if we had a Finder and wanted to give him 1 night to get results before committing to a lynch, but we don't have a Finder in this game.

So....who are your suspects? You mentioned Reddy before. Why? Make a case.

[Whiskeyjack]

Hmmh, say TMW is innocent - do we really think that both evil players were on his mob?

I somehow doubt this. :unsure:

If there are 2 FM, and TMW is innocent, then I think there would definitely be 1 evil player on the mob. Not sure where the 2nd one would be. The analysis is difficult in such a small game. Normally, I'd say that they want to split their votes, but the reality here is that they may feel they needed both of their votes to get a lynch.

If there is 1 FM and 1 Symp, and TMW is innocent, then I'd expect the Symp to probably be on the mob. The FM would be difficult to place.

So, either way, at least 1 evil player on the mob. But that assumes that TMW is innocent.

Also, if TMW is innocent, I think uber is more likely to be innocent. If he was evil, then why not drop the hammer? Nobody would have chastised him for doing it. In fact, we are all arguing the opposite right now - that he should have done it. So, unless he's playing a WIFOM game, I'd probably put him at the bottom of my suspect list if TMW came up innocent.

What's interesting is that the only people to not vote for TMW were Gert, uber, and Reddy. So if we find out that TMW is innocent, I'd only be left with Reddy as a top suspect among the players who aren't on the mob. If we go down that path (of lynching TMW and then finding out he's innocent), we could be left with an interesting decision between focusing on the larger group where there should be at least 1 evil player (players on the mob) or focusing on the smaller group (of only 1 person) where we can't be as confident that there is an evil player.

On the flip side, if TMW is FM, then I'd expect a partner FM to either be late to the mob (Malcolm or May) or be off the mob (uber or Reddy). If he's an FM with a symp, then the symp is most likely uber or Reddy. And if he's the symp, then the FM could be anybody.

[HT Reddy]

There were 8 of us. And I didn't vote. There were more people that could vote. I didn't vote because I didn't find TMW blatantly suspicious as some of you did and because i was away from internet. That makes me suspicious? And why didn't some of other people remove their votes if you wanted to lynch so badly? If I were his partner, I could have placed my vote on someone else, to avoid looking suspicious, for example on Ht Reddy, which I really find suspicious. Gertrude voted for him and she died.. I just don't like placing my vote randomly or bandwagoning. If we lynched an innocent dude, and proceeded to lose the game because of that I would have felt guilty. As I did in the last zombie game.

Well, note for the future - day one lynches often kill innocents (it may be more or less than you'd expect if it was random I don't know I haven't worked it out) Point is, don't feel guilty - it's not worth it, nor would it have followed that if TMW was innocent and we lost the game, that it would have been your fault.

You say (I think) that you find me really suspicious - if this is the case why did you not vote me? And why aren't you voting me now?

And as WJ said, no-one found TMW blatantly suspicious - just suspicious enough to lynch :P. You don't have to be sure to lay down a vote. It's all very well not to bandwaggon, but if that's your attitude, the helpful thing to do is to dig around for other suspects and think independently, not just give up and place no vote.

Why are you irritated about me acting as WJ's symp? Do you agree with Malc that there is a symp in this game? And if I was WJ's symp, why would I act it so plainly obvious?

There's an important difference, at least for me, between irritating and suspicious. I don't want to speak for someone else, but TMW could easily be irritated by you without finding you suspicious. I haven't really noticed you symnping WJ this game though so I really should just let TMW speak for himself.

I agree.

If there are killer+symp, symp evidently was on the mob and killer wasn't (unless TMW is a symp). if there are two killers, distribution is less obvious; but looking either on the mob and off is good idea anyway.

Well, personally I never do voting pattern analysis when being killer, I just kill whoever harms me. So I don't expect my opponents to do so (everybody judges by himself). In fact, only players who would look into voting patterns if guilty are you, WJ and possibly TMW. All the rest won't care.

I agree with your second post Malc - I never look at vote distribution when evil either, so I don't expect others too. But why did you m,ake that first seemingly confident post about how the evils votes will be on or off the mob if you don't believe it necessarily applies?

[Whiskeyjack]

Reddy, who do you suspect right now?

[TheMalcolm]

I agree with your second post Malc - I never look at vote distribution when evil either, so I don't expect others too. But why did you m,ake that first seemingly confident post about how the evils votes will be on or off the mob if you don't believe it necessarily applies?

Well, we might guess baddies' position on and off the mob even presuming they never thought about vote patterns.

A symp would gladly vote anybody who isn't their master. A killer would hesitate to vote somebody who could be their symp.

In case of two killers, simplest form of distancing is to vote different persons. Would they care if we would lynch suscessfully or not? As long as the nominee isn't guilty, both alternatives are favorable for them.

[Whiskeyjack]

Reddy, who do you suspect right now?

So, I post this question 2 minutes after Reddy's post, and yet he still hasn't answered. Strange.

[ubermensch]

You look so... overdefensive now. Could you stop explaining why you aren't guilty (this almost never works) and try to suggest us alternative candidacy for lynching?

Overdefensive? I am just trying to explain myself.

If you walk through a shop, and somebody falsely accuses you of shoplifting, would you just ignore him and say him to go check someone else, or would you defend and try to prove to him that you didn't steal anything?

It gives us a day longer to discuss things. But it doesn't give us an extra day in game terms (we can still only afford 1 incorrect lynch). We actually lost any realistic opportunity we'd have to gain an extra lynch.

Also, (using your math) you don't like a 25% chance, but you're okay with the 28.6% chance we have after 1 person is night killed? Is it really that much of an improvement?

Now, a question about your math. You are saying the odds were 2/8 (25%) to lynch an evil player yesterday. If you're innocent, then shouldn't it be 2/7 (28.6%) from your perspective?

I wasn't talking about my perspective, I was talking generally. On day 1 it all reduces to randomly pointing at someone. There is just too little material. On day 2, there is one person less, and there is more material and you can try to connect the night kill with voting patterns...

But you weren't away, at least not the whole time. You stopped by the thread with 1.5 hours left in the day. That was your opportunity to vote. You knew there was only one realistic option. You chose to not cast a vote.

I woke up, and wrote that while eating my breakfast before going to college. Didn't quite have time to do a thorough re-read and tried re-reading it in the bus, but it just sux to read huge amounts of text on cellphone. I told you that my college is primary to me right now. When I signed for the game, I didn't know that it was going to be delayed, and because it was delayed, it managed to coincide with my exams. Last of them is tomorrow afternoon and after that I'm free to play as much as I want.

I'll also note that you never actually said that you didn't suspect TMW. You just made this useless, wishy washy post -

I never said that i didn't suspect him, I just said that I didn't find him more suspicious than anybody else. And that also derives from my lack of time. If you go through my posts you will see that.

How could you not even address the issue of our top suspect? Makes me wonder if you didn't want to commit to any concrete evaluation, in case he was lynched and came up guilty.

Lack of time.

Why do I suspect HT Reddy? Gertrude got smacked after voting for him. He has had 3 posts on Day 1 and 2 of them were really short. He also placed a joke vote on WJ. He votes, avoids suspicion and lays low. After Gertrude dies, he explicitely says that he doesn't have time, because of his midterms and effectively covers his inactivity on Day 1. I said it on the start. Why didn't he move his vote to TMW and won the lynch? Joke vote or no-vote, practically it's the same. If i were him, and he was a FM, Gertrude would be a logical kill. She was one of the more active players and unlikely to be healed during night (if we assume that WJ is innocent) and she did find him suspicious.

[Piper of Chaos]

Malc, is there a reason why you're constantly pushing the FM/symp theory?

I am also noticing that May has been silent for a long time. I'd appreciate a bit more input by her.