GoT Mafia Game 70

[House Tully]

I could vote for Stark or Botley at this point, but right now I'm laying it on Erenford. Yes it's OMGUS, but it's also the fact that he hasn't contributed anything except salivating over the two points he's going to get by lynching me. You don't want to give him the satisfaction (and point lead), now do you? :P

Well, you wouldn't want me to 'contribute' while Mr. Bigglesworth is having his nap, do you. I might wake him up!

Your own contribution I'm afraid I still find pretty inane. You vote Botley saying you have no read on him, but you made a point against him a few posts ago (which was merely parroting Frey and Kenning...). You then tell Martell you'd rather he voted for me (maybe it's you who wants that point lead ;-)), but quickly change your vote to Botley.

Anyway, to elaborate on some things that have been said, I agree with Stark about Tully's vote on him being easy play, the only thing easier than to attack the first serious post is to attack the second one, and calling Yronwood poor and little doesn't make him an easier target than anyone else, as has been pointed out.

Botley's attack on Stark was a bit of a stretch, but from where I'm sitting it's because of the reasons pointed out by Stonetree, he observes a trend where there's only one post (saying 'he quotes long posts' rather than 'he quoted a long post). The attacks on Botley by Frey I like less, at the beginning I don't agree with them (someone else pointed out they didn't like this point of Frey's and I concur), and then they transform into Botley's failure to address the points made against him. I agree this last point is valid, and it could be a FM trying to lie low and hope other players will get bored of him, though it could also be lack of time or bad timing as to deciding when the game started getting serious.

Cerwyn just got on the wrong foot with Stark at the beginning, and I don't find their interactions too damning. I think Stark's retaliation on Botley is rather bizarre, but seems consistent with most of the things that are coming out of his flu-addled brain.

I think I'd like to look at Frey, Yronwood and Tully tomorrow. I'd be happy to hammer either Stark or Botley today (I do want those points...). I'll be around during the next few hours and can maneuvre my vote at any time before the day ends.

[House Clegane]

What exactly does this mean, are you saying that you feel better about Stark but are leaving your vote on him nonetheless, if so why?

Never mind

[House Tully]

Hmmm... we could really do with a vote count. Is Botley at 6?

[House Tully]

You guys chose a bad time to all vanish. There are less than 12 minutes left to the end of the day and Botley is at 6 votes by my count.

Is there anyone else around?

[House Stokeworth]

I just finished catching up, but I thought we had another hour, and I really wanna lynch Stark. :)

[House Stokeworth]

3 minutes...ok, I'd be willing to hammer Botley. :/

[House Tully]

3 minutes...ok, I'd be willing to hammer Botley. :/

Botley

[House Stokeworth]

One more vote, c'mon!

[House Stokeworth]

Botley.

[House Tully]

You beat me on the chicken game for that hammering vote point. That vote of yours truly came in on the very last second of the day!

Well played, ser.

*Mr. Bigglesworth purrs in aproval*

[House Targaryen]

Ok you lynched Botley. That is to say, some of King Wayne's goons had a quiet word with him and suggested that he might want to leave. No blood, gore or dodgy sausages in the morning. Very civilised. Or it would be if you were able to ignore the Keffer-like screams of anguish emanating from some deep basement in this place. Don't worry; it's probably just the wind.

Botley was Lany and was innocent (or as innocent as anyone gets in this game).

Night end may take a while i'm afraid i don't know when i'll next get access to the computer.

[House Dondarrion]

Ok you lynched Botley. That is to say, some of King Wayne's goons had a quiet word with him and suggested that he might want to leave. No blood, gore or dodgy sausages in the morning. Very civilised. Or it would be if you were able to ignore the Keffer-like screams of anguish emanating from some deep basement in this place. Don't worry; it's probably just the wind.

Botley was Lany and was innocent (or as innocent as anyone gets in this game).

Night end may take a while i'm afraid i don't know when i'll next get access to the computer.

:cry: I think one hour of play and lynched is a new personal best :P

[House Targaryen]

*pastoral music*

The wailing of Botley's ghost rouses you from your slumber. The butler had tried to persuade everyone to take advantage of the mansion's sumptuous feather beds, all conveniently located in isolated and soundproof corners of the house, but most guests declined and instead slouched uncomfortably around the dining hall, eyeing each other with suspicion and trying not to fall asleep.

Only Lady Amanda Frey had taken up the offer of a comfy night's rest. That didn't turn out so well for her, you find out, when you spot her lifeless body lying at the foot of the stairs. Did she fall or was she pushed?*

It is Day 2. Frey was Mina and innocent.

*she was pushed. Of course!

<--- n00b mod does not know how to restart the counter! :blushing:

[House Mooton]

Sorry for another long absence, I was afflicted by other debts.

I miss my points but am glad you haven't lynched Erenford, I feel much better about him now. Waing for analysis he promiced.

[House Stokeworth]

Will have to re-read Amanda, but off the top of my head I see no reason particular reason for her to be killed, and with this being a sympless game with a short serious phase in day 1, I doubt we'll be able to make any useful conclusions there.

What has caught my attention is the way Stark escaped the noose. Sure, some said that he's been acting like an inexperienced player, but it seems to me that he was acting like an evil inexperienced player. His gameplay was not just erratic, it was faulty and misleading. Having caught up on the whole serious part of game when I woke up, it suprised me how neatly Botley was put forward as the first lynch choice without there being a huge argument about it. People just came in, said 'Hm, they are all suspicious, Stark is a noob, so let's lynch Botley.' and it happened. I was really reluctant to lynching him, seeing as he got no help whatsoever, but keeping him would have just caused further confusion. So, with Botley's innocence proven, I intend to go back and find who might have been steering the lynch away from Stark, and I suggest that all of you try to do the same.

[Lady Gaga]

I fear I may have been one of the (if not the) tipping point post when I swung away from Stark (as he looked unlikely to swing), giving my reluctant support to Botley's lynch.

I stand by the fact that Botley did look suspicious, just not as suspicious as Stark.

And to answer a post that was then labelled "never mind", yes the activity makes me feel better about Stark, but yes he was still my #1 choice. Imagine Mafia has 99 labels, from 1 (less likely than Targ to be a killer) to 99 (admitted he's the killer, caught by a confirmed finder), then you all start at 50. Stark went up to 60ish, then down to 55ish with the activity. Botley was day 1 guilty looking around the 52-55 mark. But being day 1, I don't expect to find people in the 70s and 80s.

ps. I won't be ranking people with these numbers. I don't keep an exact 1-99 number in my head. It's just a nice mathsy way of explaining why i'd feel better about someone but still see them as the best lynch choice.

[Lady Gaga]

So, I re-read Frey, and it's quite clear why she died.

The primary reason was that Frey was intelligent, reasonable, asked good questions, wasn't afraid of launching a case... In other words, she was dangerous. So the killers took her out before she took one of them out.

Now there's two ways to look at this. I mean, we saw that she was the driving force behind the Botley lynch, so either the killers, seeing that, knew that if she ended up suspecting one of them she could and would have them lynched, or perhaps she actually had one of them in her sights.

Now, she attacked three people. Firstly, she asked quite a few questions to Stark. Then she attacked Botley, who I dare say we can rule out as her killer! Finally, she also slightly attacked me, calling me tunnel-visioned on Stark.

Next post sums up what the two deaths tell me.

[House Stokeworth]

ME HAS A PLAN!

Seeing as we have to cooperate in order to catch the FM, I've figured out a combination of roles that could lead us straight to a killer, and even kill him instantly if we guess correctly!

So. Player A is widely trusted. It's really important that it's the most trustworthy player we can find, as the whole plan depends on certainty of him telling the truth. Player B is the most suspicious person left after today's lynch. Player A buys a vig kill and announces on-thread that he will target player B. Player B, if innocent, can buy a guard and guard player A, but if guilty, he can't use any role until he's the last killer remaining! This also prevents the FM from interfering with our little experiment in order to sow confusion. Note that we must choose players A and B so that there is absolutely NO chance of them being partners.

So, the gain of my plan is basically a find which kills if the subject is guilty, which is pretty damn awesome, and the drawbacks are that we won't know for certain that player A is trustworthy, and he must be willing to spend 4 points on a vig kill.

[House Corbray]

hmmm lets see. You accuse me of going after easy targets? well thats what you just did, you are going off and not coming back for the end of the day but you still cast a vote on the same easiest target at the moment which is me and take off.If that isnt hypocrisy I wonder what is.

Yes I attacked the first serious post of the game, why? because you dont attack RP posts, RP is about jokin round and trying to get in to the game, so its stupid to attack RP posts you know its simple common sense. And why is Yronwood an easy target? Can you name who could I have voted for who was RISKY at that time? oh wait, you are going off and never coming back.

Firstly, I apologise, Stark, that I put a vote on you and was not around to hear you answer it. It's a crappy situation to be left in, I know. That said, it's a situation that arises often in this game and not one that it's worth being petulant over. My choices at the time were to vote, and leave someone in that same situation, or not to vote. If I hadn't voted someone would have asked me why I left you all without helping further the lynch or without backing up my suspicions in the form of a vote, and those people would have had far more justification for their attacks than you do for bemoaning my absense.

To your points. What I did might be construed as hypocrisy if my main reason for voting you had been that you'd voted an easy target. As it stands that was one point among a number of reasons I gave, and was, in fact, a throw away line at the bottom of my post.

My main reason for voting you was this: During day one especially, I feel that there are a number of situations that arise in every game to which the bad guys have to make a deliberate choice about how they are going to react. One is role play, though that gives away next to nothing; another is role speculation, which we've had relatively little of this game; and a third is the first serious case of the game. Of course the case is going to be bad (because barring a massive screw up by the FM there's only going to be RP to base it on) and of course it's going to get various reactions. But it's an easy topic of conversation that doesn't require much time commitment or deep thought at a point in the game where no one expects you to stay seriously married to an opinion. In short it's exactly the kind of conversation that an FM wants to be in on. And yes, Erenford, the reactions to the reactions and the reactions to those reactions are also great places for an FM to bolster their post count. The entire exchange ought to be considered.

What neither you, Stark, nor Erenford seems to have understood is that it isn't about hypocrisy, or who is voting the easiest target, or who is making the obvious attack. It's about looking at one watershed part of day one and saying this is the dodgiest post. This is the guy who isn't posting because he has something to say but is instead manufacturing contribution because that's what he feels he's expected to do. Your attack and vote on Yronwood was because you found his first case "pretentious". You don't even explain what was pretentious about it. Pretension isn't especially indicative of scum (fortunately for me, since this post is probably far more pretentious than anything Yronwood said) and a very flimsy reason to vote for someone. Add to that that Yronwood was coming out of RP with a couple of votes for you to hide among, and that he had painted a small target on himself by making the obligatory first case, and your post comes out looking opportunistic.

Your reaction to my vote, incidentally, looks equally bad. You acted put upon, only focused on the easiest point to answer and the points which you could most easily turn around on me. And as far as naming a more risky vote than Yronwood... Anyone. Me. Lannister even. Especially anyone who didn't already have a vote because you would have turned yourself into the point person for that case and that would have brought attention.

Actually, screw all this, I still find you the most suspicious player by a goodly shot. Stark.

Anyway, to elaborate on some things that have been said, I agree with Stark about Tully's vote on him being easy play, the only thing easier than to attack the first serious post is to attack the second one, and calling Yronwood poor and little doesn't make him an easier target than anyone else, as has been pointed out.

Yronwood may be neither poor nor little, but he did have the most votes on him at the time which provides some cover for an FM and, yes, makes him an easier target than those around him. He wasn't in danger of being lynched, but not every FM vote is placed with the intention of lynching someone.

I'm yet to decide how I feel about your end of day play. I'm inclined to believe that it makes you look more innocent. A thinking FM would have stretched out the game of chicken with Tyrell longer, preferring to take the point than lynch even an innocent. I think that whoever said that FM won't be playing for points was wrong. They'll certainly be playing to deny innocents points, and whichever of them is left alive at the end is going to want a goodly cache of them for their own use. I think optimal FM play would have been to get the hammer, but an FM would have denied the innocents a lot of points by screwing up the lynch entirely. Of the three options open too you last night you chose the one that was least beneficial to the baddies.

[Lady Gaga]

What does Botley's death tell us?

Botley flipping innocent removes any suspicion of the chainsaw. Therefore I have no reason at all to suspect Yronwood. A guilty flip, regardless of the every man for himself nature of this game, would have left me wondering.

Now to look at how we went from a sure stark lynch to a botley one... here i'm looking for people who actively push the botley train while also not voting stark. After all, we know that botley was innocent, and frey's death makes stark look slightly more suspicious than yesterday, which was already "most suspicious here". So...

Stonetree claims to be willing to switch to Botley, but wants his points so doesn't. Defends stark. - more selfish than trying to steer a lynch to botley.

Yronwood looks to vote out erenford, even though willing to vote botley or stark. This would have been a great opportunity to move the botley train on and stop the stark one, but it's passed up.

Dondarrion mentions wanting to look at stark's lynch mob. This is likely to discourage people from hopping on it. Without a vote, I'd still suggest this is a push away from a stark lynch. He also probes Botley in the same post, showing some intent to vote there.

I think I have all the arguments sorted out now, and Stark comes out looking vaguely suspicious, but there are a few things that I find inconsistent with how a FM might behave. On top of that, I find Botley more and more suspicious even though I don't like the term "chainsaw" either.

- wishy washy on Stark. "Don't vote for him, but if he's evil I can say i thought as much!" Followed by a vote for the other likely lynch candidate. If there's a real pushing post it's this one. Immediately after asks if there's a CF. Worried?

Martell chooses Botley over stark, but sees both as bad looking (and also erenford too). There's no push away from stark, just towards Botley. In fact, Martell leaves Stark as a viable choice.

Stokeworth doesn't find stark guilty, but keeps his vote on erenford. Could have pushed the botley case further, but instead just refuses to vote stark.

Yronwood votes botley as a compromise vote.

Dondarrion delivers on his promise and votes for botley, ending far later on the bandwagon than his actions warrent (which should make him appear better at a glance)

I then join the botley train, all but confirming it as the only viable choice.

After this, it's all but confirmed, so not really worth analysing.

So from this, I'd say Dondarrion looks bad. Kenning looks worse. Stark is still my main choice for the day, but I'd say Kenning is my current #2, and Dondarrion my #3. I don't have any reason yet to believe that they aren't all evil.

ps. If we find out that they are the killers, you ALL owe me a drink over in Spoiler Heaven. :cheers: