GoT Mafia Game 70.5 - Jingle Hell

[House Clegane]

Night Gimli. I in fact am just about to joing Gimli in the land of Nod (we non-snow-white-lovers stick together), but i'll share the notes i've made before heading off:

Sleepy – strange comment about finding people with strong opinions suspicious – nicely (though weasally) explained, but still there. Also used the ugly expression of ‘reaching’ – Tyrion doesn’t like at all. Ridiculous claim that I fled when questioned (sorry, but this yet rankles with me). I don’t like that he claimed I made a ‘massive stretch’ in my ‘accusation’ of him – i didn’t like that he seemed to be discouraging opinions, and i said so, but it wasn’t an accusation, and there was no vote attached. I just pointed out that i didn’t like that comment, which i stand by. Sleepy seems generally innocent to me though, just happened to have irritated me. But there is a alarum bell going, something that i can’t put my finger on – like Sleepy is trying harder than one would when innocent or something. This is just a vibe though at the moment, but i’ll be watching sleepy.

Durin – defends me which inevitably makes me feel all warm an fuzzy about him. Not sure i agree that i am less likely to be FM from a neutral perspective. Case on Sleepy was also not properly spelt out.

Happy sided against me, but i sadly have no objective reason to hold that against him. Seems innocent

Bashful – reasonable, and i don’t think he was overdefensive, though i don’t agree about Durin’s lack of suspiciousness

Grumpy – ‘full of fail’!? – i am no master of the English language – not by any means – but this would seem to be a particularly inelegant phrase to use (though the point may be valid).

Just in case this ignites a debate - i know day one rereads aren't helpful, i'm not doing it to seem more innocent, i just needed to reread the thread before i had any idea what's going on (actually i need to read it about 3 times before i properly understand, but i didn't bother to do that for the whole thing) so i made notes to keep track and thought i'd share them.

[Gertrude]

Merry Christmas!

[House Mooton]

3. My response to Tyrion was in response to him considering that my flippant confession, replete with smilies, was somehow serious, and that Tyrion thought that he may have got a straight out confession with minimal pressure. It's blatantly, blatantly obvious and you not getting that suggests that you haven't read the thread properly, or that you are wilfully trying to misconstrue things.

Your "wait...is this a serious vote?" looks like a comment on the whole exchange, as if you only then managed to see that Tyrion was serious.

And my point is that you admitted you were fishing for FM. You wanted to trick one into revealing himself to you. So you shouldn't have been surprised when a player thought your post was worth some attention.

[House Dondarrion]

Oh c'mon, the symp could easily make the post that Gimli made and then blow it off as a joke. The FM would be left thinking that he's possibly the symp making a bold move, so they avoid killing him. The innocents meanwhile make arguments like the one you're making, defending him because it was just a joke. And the symp ends up in a good position. You make it sound like a symp would never do that but I disagree. Bold moves can win games.

Look at it this way. How common are symp clues in the more recent games? Not very. I'm aware that they happen but nowadays it seems to be a very rare occurrence because the problem with symp clues is that they're there for everyone to see.

Is there anything special about this game that makes symp clues more likely? Well, the symp doesn't know who his masters are, but that only means that the clues can't be targeted so they need to be more general and more easily found by innocents. Also, the symp is potentially more valuable than usual and so has added incentive to protect himself. I contend that both of these points make symp clues less likely. The real gain to team evil is if the symp works out who the masters are. I could credit a bold move on the part of the symp if it would somehow gain him that information.

The problem, for team evil, is that the symp has about the same chance as anyone else of working out who the FM are, and the FM has about the same chance as anyone else of working out who the symp is. Anything either party does to increase this chance increases the chance for everyone else as well. I consider symp clues to be a big risk for little gain, and as such unlikely.

[House Redfort]

I don't think what I have said is so unreasonable. My defense of Tyrion has been strong, but that's only because I think there are a few candidates (Sleeppy, Bashful, Gimli) who are far better choices for todays lynch.

I thought that Tyrion's accusation was just executed poorly but still indicative of someone really looking for FM. Sleeppy accusation of me is a defensive response to my accusation of him.

I suppose the case on Tyrion could be seen as valid if you don't feel as I do(see above). He hasn't made a great deal of effort to defend himself which is a negative.

Sleeppy rang alarm bells for me because he was focused only on Tyrion and ignored any other potential FM. eg Bashful and was defensive of Gimli, who has acted a bit suspiciously with his possible symp like behaviour, about which he is flippant when it's gone a bit past that now.

There are better choices than Sleeppy today although I'm still unsure about him. I think Bashful needs a better explanation for his response to Gimli which read likes FM acknowledging potential symp.

I'm not sure about Sleeppy atm but there are better choices for today.

[House Mooton]

The problem, for team evil, is that the symp has about the same chance as anyone else of working out who the FM are, and the FM has about the same chance as anyone else of working out who the symp is. Anything either party does to increase this chance increases the chance for everyone else as well. I consider symp clues to be a big risk for little gain, and as such unlikely.

I understand your argument, but you're not getting mine. The point is that most people dismiss blatant clues like the one he posted. Except that FM tend to notice them (at least I have when I've been FM in the past). So you are claiming there is a risk, but I don't think there is one. I think if he's the symp, he just kept the FM from killing him for a bit and he didn't really risk much.

[House Mooton]

Sleeppy rang alarm bells for me because he was focused only on Tyrion and ignored any other potential FM. eg Bashful and was defensive of Gimli, who has acted a bit suspiciously with his possible symp like behaviour, about which he is flippant when it's gone a bit past that now.

There are better choices than Sleeppy today although I'm still unsure about him. I think Bashful needs a better explanation for his response to Gimli which read likes FM acknowledging potential symp.

I'm not sure about Sleeppy atm but there are better choices for today.

Wait, what? Before, you tried to say Tyrion looked innocent because he was focused on one target. Now, after people disagree with that theory, you are saying that Sleepy looks suspicious for focusing on one target? That is a very big contradiction.

Also, I don't like how you are switching from an unpopular target to a more popular one.

[House Mooton]

Just to support what I'm saying with quotes. First Durin said this -

Tyrion is one of the less likely bad guys atm because he's shown himself willing to pick a potential FM and stick to his guns. Because of this he's an excellent choice for FM/symp to lynch as its fairly unlikely he's an ally.

Then he said this -

Sleeppy rang alarm bells for me because he was focused only on Tyrion and ignored any other potential FM. eg Bashful and was defensive of Gimli, who has acted a bit suspiciously with his possible symp like behaviour, about which he is flippant when it's gone a bit past that now. .

So Tyrion looks innocent because he picked a potential FM and stuck to his guns. But Sleepy looks guilty because he was focused only on Tyrion. That makes no sense.

I'd like an explanation, Durin.

[House Dondarrion]

Sleepy – strange comment about finding people with strong opinions suspicious – nicely (though weasally) explained, but still there. Also used the ugly expression of ‘reaching’ – Tyrion doesn’t like at all. Ridiculous claim that I fled when questioned (sorry, but this yet rankles with me). I don’t like that he claimed I made a ‘massive stretch’ in my ‘accusation’ of him – i didn’t like that he seemed to be discouraging opinions, and i said so, but it wasn’t an accusation, and there was no vote attached. I just pointed out that i didn’t like that comment, which i stand by. Sleepy seems generally innocent to me though, just happened to have irritated me. But there is a alarum bell going, something that i can’t put my finger on – like Sleepy is trying harder than one would when innocent or something. This is just a vibe though at the moment, but i’ll be watching sleepy.

This is the biggest load of middle of the road nonsense I've ever seen. If I've explained what I meant about strong opinions "nicely" then doesn't that mean that it shouldn't be strange to you anymore? And if the explanation was weaselly then it definitely wasn't nice. I'd much rather you made your dislike of what I've said plain rather than sandwiching a passive-aggressive sideways swipe into a sentence which can't decide whether it's being positive or negative to begin with.

If you say you went Christmas shopping then you went Christmas shopping. You can't expect me to have known that prior to returning to tell me so, however.

And your conclusion, "generally innocent" but ringing vague alarm bells for trying to hard, is again wishy washy. But do keep watching me. Consider me satisfactorily forewarned.

[House Redfort]

I understand your argument, but you're not getting mine. The point is that most people dismiss blatant clues like the one he posted. Except that FM tend to notice them (at least I have when I've been FM in the past). So you are claiming there is a risk, but I don't think there is one. I think if he's the symp, he just kept the FM from killing him for a bit and he didn't really risk much.

Sleeppy's dismissiveness makes me wary because the issue has come up so it's not a groundless concern and therefore worth exploring. I have to go but I'll be back in a few hours. I think we have less to lose lynching Bashful or Gimli because of the possiblity one or both are symp/FM, and if one is we have pretty much found two of three.

[House Connington]

Just to support what I'm saying with quotes. First Durin said this -

Then he said this -

So Tyrion looks innocent because he picked a potential FM and stuck to his guns. But Sleepy looks guilty because he was focused only on Tyrion. That makes no sense.

I'd like an explanation, Durin.

I was just about to point this out. :crying: Of course, knowing Durin, he will fail to adress this issue.

EDIT: What a shock, Durin had to leave again.

[House Dondarrion]

I understand your argument, but you're not getting mine. The point is that most people dismiss blatant clues like the one he posted. Except that FM tend to notice them (at least I have when I've been FM in the past). So you are claiming there is a risk, but I don't think there is one. I think if he's the symp, he just kept the FM from killing him for a bit and he didn't really risk much.

Fair enough. Though rely on innocents to ignore something is a dubious proposition. It's my experience that one innocent or another tends to suggest most possibilities eventually. I guess my point is that I won't be taking potential symp clues as especially damning unless there's also reasonable amount of other evidence.

[House Dondarrion]

Sleeppy rang alarm bells for me because he was focused only on Tyrion and ignored any other potential FM. eg Bashful and was defensive of Gimli, who has acted a bit suspiciously with his possible symp like behaviour, about which he is flippant when it's gone a bit past that now.

My advice to you is stop twisting what people say. If you're innocent then it doesn't help anyone, and if you're guilty it makes you look more guilty.

1. My comments over the likelihood of symp clues have not been flippant. I actually feel like I've gone into excruciating detail to explain them logically. Grumpy seems to have understood what I was saying, even if he disagrees, and I don't see that the point was that hard to understand. If you don't like my argument, fine, but don't pretend that I haven't explained it clearly.

2. I've just reread the Tyrion/Gimli/Bashful exchange (and I suggest you do the same). If you accept that Bashful mistook Tyrion and Gimli's names then his comment makes sense. I personally find it odd that Bashful doesn't seem to think Tyrion believing Gimli had confessed was strange, but since you don't seem to find it strange either, i don't think you're in a position to make that argument. Other than that I don't seem anything Bashful said as weird. He endorsed Tyrion's line of attack on Gimli while acknowledging that Gimli had followed a similar line of thought (if less seriously). I don't see how that can be construed as defending Gimli. Bashful hasn't contributed a lot thus far, but that's about the worst thing I can say about him. your suspects aren't automatically the groups suspects, and so other people not following up on your suspicions isn't in itself suspicious. If it helps any, I did comment that Bashful liking Gimli at the time didn't make much sense. Once you explained that he mistook the names, it was no longer worth pursuing.

[House Targaryen]

Your missing dwarf sneezy has been on contact to me. Due to a bad case of sniffles, he's asked for a 2 hour extension on the modkill timer. Seeing as we have plenty of time still I've allowed it. He now has roughly 12 hours left to post.

[House Velaryon]

I'm here. Finally. I will do a re-read tomorrow. Off to bed now.

And before I leave, Gimli

Elves and dwarves hate each other.

Gimli is a dwarf.

Legolas is an elf.

Gimli likes Legolas.

He's a symp!!!

[Lady Gaga]

Sleepy – strange comment about finding people with strong opinions suspicious – nicely (though weasally) explained, but still there. Also used the ugly expression of ‘reaching’ – Tyrion doesn’t like at all. Ridiculous claim that I fled when questioned (sorry, but this yet rankles with me). I don’t like that he claimed I made a ‘massive stretch’ in my ‘accusation’ of him – i didn’t like that he seemed to be discouraging opinions, and i said so, but it wasn’t an accusation, and there was no vote attached. I just pointed out that i didn’t like that comment, which i stand by. Sleepy seems generally innocent to me though, just happened to have irritated me. But there is a alarum bell going, something that i can’t put my finger on – like Sleepy is trying harder than one would when innocent or something. This is just a vibe though at the moment, but i’ll be watching sleepy.

Durin – defends me which inevitably makes me feel all warm an fuzzy about him. Not sure i agree that i am less likely to be FM from a neutral perspective. Case on Sleepy was also not properly spelt out.

Happy sided against me, but i sadly have no objective reason to hold that against him. Seems innocent

Bashful – reasonable, and i don’t think he was overdefensive, though i don’t agree about Durin’s lack of suspiciousness

Grumpy – ‘full of fail’!? – i am no master of the English language – not by any means – but this would seem to be a particularly inelegant phrase to use (though the point may be valid).

Just in case this ignites a debate - i know day one rereads aren't helpful, i'm not doing it to seem more innocent, i just needed to reread the thread before i had any idea what's going on (actually i need to read it about 3 times before i properly understand, but i didn't bother to do that for the whole thing) so i made notes to keep track and thought i'd share them.

There are some contradictory and confusing points in your post, I wanted to point out so you could explain when you get back, you say you didnt like it when sleepy said your case is stretched, you didnt like it that he discouraged opinions, you didnt like his comment about ppl with strong opinions being suspicious, personally I dont mind re-reads in any phase of the game, but when you just list some stuff you didnt like about a player which is a quite long list for day one and then you still strongly believe he is innocent and then again you continue to claim he is trying much harder than an innocent would! sorry but this kind of posts bother me alot. another issue is that you didnt explain your dislike for his actions which looks to me that you are just throwing shit to see if any sticks.

[House Stokeworth]

The good news: I'm somewhat caught up now--although to be honest, I'm having trouble keeping track of which dwarf said what. (Honestly, Masonity, did you really have to use all seven of Snow White's dwarves? That's just needless cruelty.)

The bad news: I have to leave again (as it is, I only finagled this time to use the computer by telling my friend I had "some, um, very important email to send").

When I get back in a few hours, expect either a) a more substantial post with actual conclusions, or B) a not-entirely-sober post in which I make an ass of myself. But probably a).

Oh, yeah, and Alberich? I've noticed your last post came even before my last post. Do you have any thoughts?

[House Redfort]

My advice to you is stop twisting what people say. If you're innocent then it doesn't help anyone, and if you're guilty it makes you look more guilty.

1. My comments over the likelihood of symp clues have not been flippant. I actually feel like I've gone into excruciating detail to explain them logically. Grumpy seems to have understood what I was saying, even if he disagrees, and I don't see that the point was that hard to understand. If you don't like my argument, fine, but don't pretend that I haven't explained it clearly.

2. I've just reread the Tyrion/Gimli/Bashful exchange (and I suggest you do the same). If you accept that Bashful mistook Tyrion and Gimli's names then his comment makes sense. I personally find it odd that Bashful doesn't seem to think Tyrion believing Gimli had confessed was strange, but since you don't seem to find it strange either, i don't think you're in a position to make that argument. Other than that I don't seem anything Bashful said as weird. He endorsed Tyrion's line of attack on Gimli while acknowledging that Gimli had followed a similar line of thought (if less seriously). I don't see how that can be construed as defending Gimli. Bashful hasn't contributed a lot thus far, but that's about the worst thing I can say about him. your suspects aren't automatically the groups suspects, and so other people not following up on your suspicions isn't in itself suspicious. If it helps any, I did comment that Bashful liking Gimli at the time didn't make much sense. Once you explained that he mistook the names, it was no longer worth pursuing.

I am trying to help by sharing my opinions. They are not the same as yours, that doesn't make them invalid and I would not deliberately twist anyone's words.

1) I was referring to Gimli as flippant not yourself, which he has been and it's a strange reaction. I understand your argument about the high level of risk associated with FM attempting to contact each other. I just think it's one of the best indicators of guilt, and the issue has arisen with Gimli and Bashful.

2) I am of the opinion that it's worth exploring and you disagree. That's fair enough. I am not twisting anyone's words, I am pointing out things that I have noticed and one of those things is your unwillingness to consider the possibility that something was going with Gimli's comment and Bashful's reaction to it. I think their exchange looks very dodgy and it surprises me that you are so willing to overlook it.

[House Redfort]

I was just about to point this out. :crying: Of course, knowing Durin, he will fail to adress this issue.

EDIT: What a shock, Durin had to leave again.

I can't see what I am supposed to have said so if you post it again I will be happy to address your points, you don't have to be so such a biatch about it :P

[House Redfort]

Just to support what I'm saying with quotes. First Durin said this -

Then he said this -

So Tyrion looks innocent because he picked a potential FM and stuck to his guns. But Sleepy looks guilty because he was focused only on Tyrion. That makes no sense.

I'd like an explanation, Durin.

Oh, I see. Yeah I suppose that's a bit of a contradiction. My point was that Sleeppy has chosen to ignore other valid arguments in favor of pursuing Tyrion or exploring his concerns. It worried me because it feels like he has been deflecting investigation from this, even though there were comments made that seem to warrant it. If he were Fm and thought that Tyrion was onto something, I think that's what he would do. Tyrion blundered with his accusation but he had a point that seemed solid to me, Sleeppy's accusation of him seemed less so.